Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Navigating the selection of renewable energy trading partners: A multi-objective optimization approach","authors":"Erik Jansen ,&nbsp;Mile Mišić ,&nbsp;Kai Schulze ,&nbsp;Michèle Knodt ,&nbsp;Marc E. Pfetsch","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decarbonizing economies and energy systems is urgently needed in order to meet current climate change mitigation targets. However, many countries, particularly in Europe, will not be able to meet their rapidly growing demand for renewable energy by expanding domestic production alone in the near future. Consequently, these countries are planning to import renewable energy using chemical carriers such as hydrogen and metals. This raises the question of which countries to partner with for renewable energy trade. Selecting the appropriate trading partners is a complex task that requires balancing several potentially conflicting objectives, including cost-efficiency, sustainability, governance, and security of supply. In this article, we present a novel approach to selecting partner countries in the presence of such trade-offs. Our approach uses empirical indicators, abstract selection rules, and the epsilon constraint method to combine these objectives into a single objective optimization problem with additional constraints. We demonstrate our approach by examining the case of Germany as an importer of renewable energy using iron as an energy carrier. Our approach identifies the optimal set of potential trading partners and their respective shares of supplied renewable energy by minimizing costs while meeting the added constraints. For instance, under the most stringent sustainability and security constraints, the model identifies Australia, the United States, Brazil, Spain, Canada, and Chile as potential trading partners for Germany. Relaxing these constraints adds more countries such as Morocco and Oman. Our approach is the first to identify trade networks, i.e., concrete sets of partner countries, that can bridge gaps in renewable energy supply, offering valuable guidance for developing trading partnerships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100197"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144548637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging the gap: Advancing behavioral economics and climate change research in developing countries","authors":"Hamza Umer ,&nbsp;Muhammad Salar Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change represents one of the greatest challenges of our time and requires exceptional efforts to combat it. Along with traditional economic methods, behavioral economics, which integrates psychological insights into financial decision-making, offers powerful tools to encourage climate-friendly behaviors. However, there has been relatively less research on the nexus of behavioral economics and climate change, and much of it is concentrated in developed countries. This perspective highlights the disparity in research output between developed and developing nations, based on a bibliometric analysis of 31 Scopus-indexed publications from 2008 to 2022. Our study reveals a strong bias toward research produced in the developed countries (or Global North), particularly in the United States and Europe, while developing countries (Global South) remain underrepresented. Consequently, we call for a more inclusive research agenda that focuses on the unique socio-economic realities of developing countries and the need for culturally or contextually tailored behavioral interventions. By promoting collaborative research efforts and increasing funding for the Global South, we aim to bridge this gap and develop scalable, effective solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100198"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the economy-wide effects of unilateral CO2 pricing under different revenue recycling schemes in Austria - Identifying structural model uncertainties","authors":"Mathias Kirchner ,&nbsp;Laura Wallenko ,&nbsp;Mark Sommer ,&nbsp;Gabriel Bachner ,&nbsp;Claudia Kettner ,&nbsp;Thomas Leoni ,&nbsp;Jakob Mayer ,&nbsp;Nathalie Spittler ,&nbsp;Judith Köberl ,&nbsp;Veronika Kulmer","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Macroeconomic modelling is essential for assessing the impacts of carbon pricing, but significant uncertainties remain between modelling approaches. This paper examines structural uncertainties by comparing a Neoclassical computable general equilibrium model (WEGDYN-AT) and a New Keynesian model (DYNK). We qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the effects of non-ETS carbon pricing under different revenue recycling options in Austria. We identify six causal impact chains (ICs) that shape model outcomes. The first two - carbon pricing leading to a loss in economic output (IC1) and a shift towards labor-intensive sectors (IC2) - are common to both models. However, differences in economic paradigms emerge in the markets for labor (IC3), capital (IC4), and goods and services (IC5). For example, DYNK shows stronger transmission of external price shocks but smoother labor market adjustments, while WEGDYN-AT shows the opposite pattern. Structural differences from models’ historical development, such as the modelling of private consumption (part of IC5) and government budget closure (IC6), also contribute to divergence. Quantitative simulations show that, due to these structural differences, results for key indicators, such as price indices, consumption, and welfare, can differ in both magnitude and sign. Our results highlight the importance of tailoring policy recommendations to the prevailing economic context, such as whether the economy is experiencing an output gap with idle resources (DYNK) or a boom phase with scarce resources (WEGDYN-AT). Transparent documentation of impact chains is crucial to understanding the range of macroeconomic effects of carbon pricing, identifying more robust policy outcomes, and strengthening policy support.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100199"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144220805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolving electricity supply and demand to achieve net-zero emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 study","authors":"Ruying Gao ,&nbsp;Trieu Mai ,&nbsp;Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi ,&nbsp;Charles Rossmann ,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted ,&nbsp;John Bistline ,&nbsp;Geoff Blanford ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Matthias Fripp ,&nbsp;Patrick Lamers ,&nbsp;Matteo Muratori ,&nbsp;Sharon Showalter ,&nbsp;John Weyant","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study’s Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO₂ intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ∼20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17–63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors—buildings, industry, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24–176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175–834 %, supplying 45–90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100196"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143936168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine","authors":"Oleksandr Diachuk ,&nbsp;Nazar Kholod ,&nbsp;Roman Podolets ,&nbsp;Neal Graham ,&nbsp;Andrii Semeniuk ,&nbsp;Meredydd Evans ,&nbsp;Michael I. Westphal ,&nbsp;Tanner Stelmach ,&nbsp;Rachel Hoesly ,&nbsp;Galyna Trypolska ,&nbsp;Anastasiia Zagoruichyk","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100195","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100195","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. The study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO₂ pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100195"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143918314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unpacking the determinants of emission intensity changes in Indonesia: A multiplicative structural decomposition approach","authors":"Djoni Hartono ,&nbsp;Sasmita Hastri Hastuti ,&nbsp;Robi Kurniawan ,&nbsp;Usep Surahman ,&nbsp;Yulesta Putra ,&nbsp;Hiroaki Shirakawa","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing the global warming crisis requires a deeper understanding of the factors influencing carbon emission intensity and the trends of major emitters. Indonesia, with its rapid economic growth and ambitious reduction targets, provides a case study for examining how national policies and structural shifts shape its carbon intensity. This paper analyzes the driving forces behind changes in Indonesia's emission intensity from 2010 to 2019, using multiplicative Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). Specifically, it assesses the impact of emission intensity, Leontief structural change (shifts in inter-industry relationships), and final demand (changes in final consumption). Our findings reveal that while Indonesia’s Aggregate Emission Intensity (AEI) improved from 2010 to 2015, it worsened from 2015 to 2019. The electricity sector, a major contributor to AEI changes, showed significant efficiency gains in the latter period, likely due to cleaner energy initiatives introduced between 2014 and 2017. However, these gains were offset by rising electricity demand for both intermediate and final uses. Other high-impact sectors, such as non-metallic mineral products, also experienced increases in emission intensity. Further analysis highlights the role of household consumption in driving demand-side effects, particularly in sectors like electricity, electrical machinery, and air transportation. These results underscore the need for strengthened policies targeting efficiency improvements, renewable energy expansion, and demand management to achieve Indonesia's carbon reduction goals and support a sustainable energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100194"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143936167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multi-model assessment of carbon neutrality pathways for Korea’s power sector","authors":"Cheolhung Cho ,&nbsp;Jiyong Eom ,&nbsp;Young-Hwan Ahn ,&nbsp;Dong Gu Choi ,&nbsp;Yohan Choi ,&nbsp;Hanwoong Kim ,&nbsp;Yong-Gun Kim ,&nbsp;Hyeonjin Lee ,&nbsp;Jineon Moon ,&nbsp;Chan Park","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In October 2021, Korea announced its mid-century carbon mitigation target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, reaffirming its commitment by enhancing its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This study employs six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to explore net-zero emission pathways and strategies for Korea’s power sector, while assessing the associated costs and challenges. The findings underscore the complexity and urgency of this transition, with the power sector playing a pivotal role in balancing the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand and full decarbonization. A shift toward a renewable-dominated power sector emerges as a robust strategy, though it poses unprecedented technological and economic challenges. Large-scale low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power, are identified as crucial solutions to reduce reliance on variable renewable energy sources and mitigate associated costs. Additionally, the study finds that current energy and climate policies are insufficient to meet the mid-century mitigation target, highlighting the urgent need for policy enhancements to bridge the gap and ensure the feasibility of Korea’s carbon neutrality goal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100193"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143929354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next nationally determined contribution and 2070 net-zero target: structural reforms, LIFE, and sectoral pathways","authors":"Pallavi Das ,&nbsp;Vaibhav Chaturvedi ,&nbsp;Joy Rajbanshi ,&nbsp;Zaid Ahsan Khan ,&nbsp;Satish Kumar ,&nbsp;Akash Goenka","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100192","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India announced 2070 as its net-zero target year at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021. The existing scenarios from India specific literature on 2070 net-zero, while very useful, mainly focus on alternative techno-economic pathways, power sector alone, and choice of peaking and net-zero years. But none of the existing scenarios go beyond the techno-economic and high-level GDP growth related uncertainties to a broader set of scenario underpinnings. Our study broadens the scenario set for India by assessing scenarios that have not till now been explored in India’s modelling literature, particularly in the context of the 2070 net-zero target. These include macroeconomic development (pathways related to urbanisation, manufacturing led economy, and urban rural inequity), energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technology, structural reforms and behavioural change that determine future energy demand and emissions. We find that a high manufacturing share and high GDP growth rate in line with <em>‘Viksit Bharat’</em> would have the highest influence in terms of increasing India’s long-term energy use and emissions if industries continue to rely on fossil energy. We highlight that lifestyle changes and energy efficiency could have the largest impact in reduction of emissions in the long-term. Under a net-zero scenario however, power pricing reforms becomes a powerful tool for electrification of industrial energy use as well as higher penetration of rooftop solar in residential buildings as tariffs are rationalised, leading to savings in land and distribution losses among other benefits. We also present information on some relevant variables like emissions intensity of GDP and RE generation by 2035 to inform India’s upcoming 2035 NDC targets. We conclude by highlighting the criticality of complementary policies to reduce energy and electricity demand and associated land footprint for India, and the importance of a climate policy for India focusing directly on the high-level emissions pathway through a carbon market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100192"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts","authors":"John E.T. Bistline ,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted ,&nbsp;Geoffrey Blanford ,&nbsp;Gale Boyd ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Yongxia Cai ,&nbsp;Jae Edmonds ,&nbsp;Allen A. Fawcett ,&nbsp;Jay Fuhrman ,&nbsp;Ruying Gao ,&nbsp;Chioke Harris ,&nbsp;Christopher Hoehne ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer ,&nbsp;Jeremiah X. Johnson ,&nbsp;P. Ozge Kaplan ,&nbsp;Dan Loughlin ,&nbsp;Megan Mahajan ,&nbsp;Trieu Mai ,&nbsp;James R. McFarland ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Mei Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. We investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO₂ emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO₂ targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO₂ emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100191"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is the industrial sector hard to decarbonize or hard to model? A comparative analysis of industrial modeling and net zero carbon dioxide pathways","authors":"P. Ozge Kaplan ,&nbsp;Gale Boyd ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Kelly Perl ,&nbsp;Sarang Supekar ,&nbsp;Nadejda Victor ,&nbsp;Ernst Worrell","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the results of the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 on Deep Decarbonization &amp; High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37), with specific focus on industrial decarbonization pathways. Broadly, industrial decarbonization can be delivered through a wide range of actions such as energy efficiency, circular economy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS). Remaining positive emissions in the energy system can be offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The extent to which these options are, or are not, included in the models will impact the extent to which industrial decarbonization is projected to contribute to achieving an economy-wide net-zero climate policy. If adequate actions and technological levers are included in the model structure, but are more expensive than other options, in particular CCUS and CDR, then projected industry emissions reductions play a smaller role in meeting a net-zero constraint. The distinction between “hard to decarbonize” and “hard to model” has significant policy implications. If industry is hard to decarbonize, policies should focus on innovative and cost-effective industrial technologies, CDR, or both. If industry is hard to model, there may be overlooked opportunities for decarbonization that require further exploration. There is no consensus across the models in the study regarding both the level of decarbonization that could be achieved in industry or the pathways to achieve it. We caution against drawing conclusions solely from existing models and recommend rigorous and coordinated modeling efforts to better capture industrial innovation and decarbonization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100190"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}