Ahmed M. Elberry , Martin Scheepers , Joost van Stralen , Juan S. Giraldo , Bob van der Zwaan
{"title":"荷兰工业部门脱碳:在维持国内生产和部分搬迁之间","authors":"Ahmed M. Elberry , Martin Scheepers , Joost van Stralen , Juan S. Giraldo , Bob van der Zwaan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100205","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize in the Dutch energy system. This is due to several factors such as the difficulty in moving away from existing technologies and the availability of still relatively cheap natural gas. In this study, we introduce two scenarios to investigate possible energy transition pathways for the Dutch industrial sector. The first scenario focuses on keeping industrial production largely in the Netherlands. The second explores relocating part of it abroad to regions in which low–cost sustainable energy sources are available. We employ an energy system optimization model to analyze these scenarios. Our results for the first scenario show a reduction of about 80% in fossil fuel consumption by 2050 in the industrial sector, primarily achieved by substituting fossil fuels with hydrogen, bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. To achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2050, a cumulative total of about 552 MtCO<sub>2</sub> needs to be captured from the industrial sector, with 52% utilized and the rest stored. The second scenario does not yield a large difference in the relative energy mix compared to the first. However, it results in substantial changes in terms of more rapid decarbonization, with less final energy consumption, lower investment costs, and more limited deployment of CO<sub>2</sub> capture technology. In both scenarios, a radical technological transformation of the industrial sector is necessary for reaching the energy system carbon-neutrality target, with industry contributing to this goal by achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions in 2050.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100205"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Decarbonizing the Dutch industrial sector: between maintaining domestic production and partial relocation\",\"authors\":\"Ahmed M. Elberry , Martin Scheepers , Joost van Stralen , Juan S. Giraldo , Bob van der Zwaan\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100205\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize in the Dutch energy system. This is due to several factors such as the difficulty in moving away from existing technologies and the availability of still relatively cheap natural gas. In this study, we introduce two scenarios to investigate possible energy transition pathways for the Dutch industrial sector. The first scenario focuses on keeping industrial production largely in the Netherlands. The second explores relocating part of it abroad to regions in which low–cost sustainable energy sources are available. We employ an energy system optimization model to analyze these scenarios. Our results for the first scenario show a reduction of about 80% in fossil fuel consumption by 2050 in the industrial sector, primarily achieved by substituting fossil fuels with hydrogen, bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. To achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2050, a cumulative total of about 552 MtCO<sub>2</sub> needs to be captured from the industrial sector, with 52% utilized and the rest stored. The second scenario does not yield a large difference in the relative energy mix compared to the first. However, it results in substantial changes in terms of more rapid decarbonization, with less final energy consumption, lower investment costs, and more limited deployment of CO<sub>2</sub> capture technology. In both scenarios, a radical technological transformation of the industrial sector is necessary for reaching the energy system carbon-neutrality target, with industry contributing to this goal by achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions in 2050.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":72914,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy and climate change\",\"volume\":\"6 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100205\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy and climate change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666278725000327\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy and climate change","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666278725000327","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Decarbonizing the Dutch industrial sector: between maintaining domestic production and partial relocation
Industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize in the Dutch energy system. This is due to several factors such as the difficulty in moving away from existing technologies and the availability of still relatively cheap natural gas. In this study, we introduce two scenarios to investigate possible energy transition pathways for the Dutch industrial sector. The first scenario focuses on keeping industrial production largely in the Netherlands. The second explores relocating part of it abroad to regions in which low–cost sustainable energy sources are available. We employ an energy system optimization model to analyze these scenarios. Our results for the first scenario show a reduction of about 80% in fossil fuel consumption by 2050 in the industrial sector, primarily achieved by substituting fossil fuels with hydrogen, bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. To achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2050, a cumulative total of about 552 MtCO2 needs to be captured from the industrial sector, with 52% utilized and the rest stored. The second scenario does not yield a large difference in the relative energy mix compared to the first. However, it results in substantial changes in terms of more rapid decarbonization, with less final energy consumption, lower investment costs, and more limited deployment of CO2 capture technology. In both scenarios, a radical technological transformation of the industrial sector is necessary for reaching the energy system carbon-neutrality target, with industry contributing to this goal by achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions in 2050.