荷兰工业部门脱碳:在维持国内生产和部分搬迁之间

IF 5.6 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Ahmed M. Elberry , Martin Scheepers , Joost van Stralen , Juan S. Giraldo , Bob van der Zwaan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

工业是荷兰能源系统中最具挑战性的脱碳部门之一。这是由于几个因素造成的,比如难以摆脱现有的技术,以及仍然相对便宜的天然气的可用性。在本研究中,我们引入两种情景来研究荷兰工业部门可能的能源转型途径。第一种方案的重点是将工业生产主要留在荷兰。第二种方法是将部分能源转移到有低成本可持续能源的地区。我们采用能源系统优化模型来分析这些情景。我们对第一种情景的结果显示,到2050年,工业部门的化石燃料消耗将减少约80%,主要是通过用氢、生物能源和合成燃料替代化石燃料来实现的。为了到2050年实现碳中和目标,需要从工业部门累计捕获约5.52亿吨二氧化碳,其中52%利用,其余储存。与第一种情况相比,第二种情况在相对能源结构方面不会产生大的差异。然而,在更快的脱碳、更少的最终能源消耗、更低的投资成本和更有限的二氧化碳捕集技术部署方面,它带来了实质性的变化。在这两种情况下,为了实现能源系统的碳中和目标,工业部门必须进行彻底的技术转型,工业通过在2050年实现净负二氧化碳排放来为这一目标做出贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Decarbonizing the Dutch industrial sector: between maintaining domestic production and partial relocation
Industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize in the Dutch energy system. This is due to several factors such as the difficulty in moving away from existing technologies and the availability of still relatively cheap natural gas. In this study, we introduce two scenarios to investigate possible energy transition pathways for the Dutch industrial sector. The first scenario focuses on keeping industrial production largely in the Netherlands. The second explores relocating part of it abroad to regions in which low–cost sustainable energy sources are available. We employ an energy system optimization model to analyze these scenarios. Our results for the first scenario show a reduction of about 80% in fossil fuel consumption by 2050 in the industrial sector, primarily achieved by substituting fossil fuels with hydrogen, bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. To achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2050, a cumulative total of about 552 MtCO2 needs to be captured from the industrial sector, with 52% utilized and the rest stored. The second scenario does not yield a large difference in the relative energy mix compared to the first. However, it results in substantial changes in terms of more rapid decarbonization, with less final energy consumption, lower investment costs, and more limited deployment of CO2 capture technology. In both scenarios, a radical technological transformation of the industrial sector is necessary for reaching the energy system carbon-neutrality target, with industry contributing to this goal by achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions in 2050.
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来源期刊
Energy and climate change
Energy and climate change Global and Planetary Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
CiteScore
7.90
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