Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Implications of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on the U.S. electric power sector","authors":"Fatemeh Ganji,&nbsp;Lu Liu,&nbsp;Shanna Fellows","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change poses a global challenge, and the electric power sector, as a major greenhouse gas contributor, plays a central role in tackling and curbing its effects. Despite significant research on global and national future pathways, there is a need for further exploration into the application of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to understand sub-national impacts on the electric power sector. This study employs the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA) to analyze how climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development interact in the U.S. electric power sector at the state level. We developed four scenarios covering different levels of decarbonization efforts and socioeconomic development. Our research findings reveal a prevailing trend towards a less carbon-intensive U.S. electric sector, propelled by an expanding presence of natural gas and renewable energies in the energy mix. Such capital turnover leads to a significant reduction of overall CO₂ emissions from the electric sector, albeit at a higher lifetime cost in particularly eastern states. The mitigation efforts also lead to overall decreased water withdrawal and increased water consumption in the electric sector, however, disparities in state-level responses are observed. While population growth predominantly shapes electricity generation, unique state-level electrification potential yields indirect population-electricity dynamics. The spatially heterogeneous response suggests complex trade-offs associated with reconciling climate mitigation objectives with local electricity demand and resource constraints. In sum, this research equips policymakers and stakeholders with invaluable insights to formulate mitigation strategies that align with the objective of the U.S. electric sector, both at a national and international level, while also catering to the unique characteristics of each state.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100125"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139107958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental degradation in geopolitical risk and uncertainty contexts for India: A comparison of ecological footprint, CO2 emissions, and load capacity factor","authors":"Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ,&nbsp;Shreya Pal","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study assesses the role of geopolitical risk and uncertainty in the degradation of the environment by forming the functions for ecological footprint, CO₂ emissions, and load capacity factor for the period 1990–2019 in India. Besides, the specified function endogenizes economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and natural resource rent as the additional covariates. The use of the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) confirms the long-run relationship between study variables. Further, the dynamic simulations of the autoregressive distributed lag model (DYNARDL) outcomes show that geopolitical risk improves the quality of the environment by reducing the ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions. However, it degrades the environment by reducing the load capacity factor. Furthermore, the uncertainty improves the environmental quality by reducing the CO₂ emissions and ecological footprint, but the reduced load capacity factor due to uncertainty implies the degradation of environmental quality in India. Given these findings, the study proposes different environmental conservation policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100122"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139393392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socio-economic benefits and policy implications of generating sustainable energy from municipal solid waste in Pakistan","authors":"Waqas Ahmad ,&nbsp;Muhammad Hassan ,&nbsp;Shah Fahad Bin Masud ,&nbsp;Muhammad Saad Amjad ,&nbsp;Fatin Samara ,&nbsp;Zeshan ,&nbsp;Mustafa Anwar ,&nbsp;Muhammad Zeeshan Rafique ,&nbsp;Tahir Nawaz","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The facet of sustainability in power generation carries immense importance since the environmental and social aspects of power generation have often been sacrificed for economic gains. It is imperative to develop novel methods that serve the dual purposes of implicating sustainability and catering to the ever-increasing energy demand. This study assesses the potential of municipal solid waste (MSW) to energy production through waste to energy (WTE) technologies and the potential contribution of WTE facilities to meet the peak energy demands of Pakistan. In the current study, two WTE development scenarios, Mass Burn with recyclable materials and Mass Burn without recyclable materials for two cities, Islamabad and Peshawar were considered. The analysis revealed that Mass Burn with recyclable materials has the potential of producing 205 MW and 180 MW of electricity for the selected cities respectively, with positive social, economic, and environmental impact. It was observed that the energy generation from waste helps in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to landfills which were 65 % for Islamabad and 54 % for Peshawar and also helps in the development of a supply chain system with economic and social benefits.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139107957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of bioenergy in Brazil's low-carbon future","authors":"Matheus Poggio ,&nbsp;Mariana Império ,&nbsp;Luiz Bernardo Baptista ,&nbsp;Roberto Schaeffer ,&nbsp;André F.P. Lucena ,&nbsp;Alexandre Szklo ,&nbsp;Pedro R.R. Rochedo ,&nbsp;Nathan Hultman ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Leon Clarke","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>The urgency of climate change requires a clear understanding of how global technological trends can alter a country's least-cost, low-carbon strategy (net-zero), considering its own advantages in terms of resources, existing knowledge, and energy facilities and converters. This study compares Brazil's least-cost strategies to reach net zero CO</span>₂ emissions by 2050 with strategies based on the technological development patterns suggested by the most recent International Energy Agency's (IEA) net zero report, which are assumed to represent global trends in technology deployment for climate mitigation. Our study is based on the use of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for Brazil. Four different mitigation scenarios are explored. Results show that the IEA technological profile deeply differs from a non-constrained technological deployment for Brazil, particularly in terms of the liquid fuels mix and the time of implementation of electric-driven mobility. In Brazil, biofuels use stand out as the least-cost solution to reach net zero emissions by 2050, mostly due to the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which can slow down fossil fuel phase out in the country. Nevertheless, a hybrid strategy can include the use of ethanol or even hydrogen fuel cells in electric powertrains, though this would require further research and development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139504063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Opportunities and roadblocks in the decarbonisation of the global steel sector: A demand and production modelling approach","authors":"Kimon Keramidas ,&nbsp;Silvana Mima ,&nbsp;Adrien Bidaud","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The steel sector represents a growing share of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and is perceived as a hard-to-abate sector in the drive towards economy-wide decarbonisation. We present a model detailing steel demand and multiple steel production pathways within a larger global multi-regional energy system simulation model, projecting material, energy and emissions flows to 2100. We examine decarbonisation levels and options under different assumptions on climate policy, technologies and steel demand patterns, and study low-carbon options in the production of hydrogen as a steel decarbonisation vector. Global steel demand increases at a decelerated pace compared to the past two decades (+65 % in 2050 compared to 2020), driven by substantial increases in the underlying socio-economic conditions. Climate policies lead to a limited positive feedback effect on steel demand (+21 % in 2050) due a faster equipment turnover and higher electrification, which could be overcompensated by energy saving and material efficiency measures. Increased recycling and strong electrification (up to 63 % of production in 2050) are projected as key levers towards decreasing emissions, made possible thanks to the increasing availability of steel scrap. Strong climate policies would be needed to push the steel sector to decarbonise fully, with electrification, carbon capture, biomass and hydrogen all contributing. Carbon capture would be necessary to reach net-zero emissions in the second half of the century.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138656726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate targets by major steel companies: An assessment of collective ambition and planned emission reduction measures","authors":"Maria Jose de Villafranca Casas ,&nbsp;Sybrig Smit ,&nbsp;Anna Nilsson ,&nbsp;Takeshi Kuramochi","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article systematically assesses the status, robustness, and potential impact of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set by the largest steel producer companies as of mid-2022. The assessment covers the 60 largest steel companies by volume, accounting for more than 60 % of global steel production. Data on company-level greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and emission reduction measures were collected from publicly available documents.</p><p>We found that only 30 companies have their own greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of varying timeframes between 2025 and 2060. Even when excluding the 15 Chinese state-owned companies that are under the national 2060 net zero target, 15 companies had no emission reduction targets. Twenty-one companies had long-term targets (2040 or after), of which 18 were net zero emission targets; all but one also had interim targets. If all climate targets identified among the 60 companies are achieved, annual CO₂ emissions for the 60 companies could be reduced by up to 12 % by 2030 and up to 39 % by 2050 in comparison to a baseline scenario. Assuming a gradual increase in global crude steel demand from 1.9 Gt in 2019 to 2.5 Gt in 2050 and assuming similar trends for the rest of the global iron and steel sector as observed for the 60 companies, we estimate that the current ambition of the global iron and steel sector on emission reductions would lead to a reduction of 38 % to 53 % by 2050 from 2019 levels (3.4 GtCO₂ to 1.6–2.1 GtCO₂), or compared to a 32 % to 43 % reduction in a baseline scenario in 2050.</p><p>Steel companies are also lagging in setting clear emission reduction plans to achieve their targets. We found that 14 out of the 30 steel producers with targets did not provide an emission reduction plan. The most popular measures amongst the 16 companies that identified at least one measure to achieve their target in their emission reduction plans were hydrogen-based DRI (<em>n</em> = 14), enhanced use of renewable electricity (<em>n</em> = 13) and Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCU/S) for blast furnaces (<em>n</em> = 9). While it is encouraging that the steel companies have started acting toward long-term deep decarbonisation, our findings suggest that there is a long way ahead and the action needs to be accelerated considerably.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100120"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666278723000272/pdfft?md5=ad8e8817dcb59ad93ab86dea25911a15&pid=1-s2.0-S2666278723000272-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135510267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of heterogeneous national technological capabilities on a Net-zero energy system","authors":"Raphael W. Apeaning ,&nbsp;Gerald Stokes ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Mohammed Osman","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Numerous studies have linked the heterogeneous nature of national technological capabilities to the disparities in country-level low-carbon investment patterns. This study investigates how differences in national and regional technological capabilities can impact the pathway to a global net-zero energy system using an integrated assessment modeling approach. The study begins by developing a novel metric that captures the heterogeneity of national low-carbon technological endowments. The metric is then modeled to explore the regional and global low-carbon investment and CO₂ abatement trends. Modeling results reveal that the heterogeneity of low-carbon technological competencies induces an asymmetry in low-carbon investments across countries and regions. This asymmetry is driven by a low-carbon investment gap created by developing economies with inferior technological capabilities. Conversely, frontier low-carbon technology regions increase their technology deployment efforts to compensate for the investment deficits. The resultant impact of the asymmetry leads to a moderate but non-trivial increase (i.e., 5.1 to 9.3 %) in the policy cost for achieving the net-zero energy target. Insights gleaned from this computational thought experiment reassert the importance of supporting local technological capabilities in the context of global climate mitigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100119"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91965605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies","authors":"John Bistline ,&nbsp;Chikara Onda ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Johannes Emmerling ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer ,&nbsp;Megan Mahajan ,&nbsp;Jim McFarland ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Robbie Orvis ,&nbsp;Francisco Ralston Fonseca ,&nbsp;Christopher Roney ,&nbsp;Noah Sandoval ,&nbsp;Luis Sarmiento ,&nbsp;John Weyant ,&nbsp;Jared Woollacott ,&nbsp;Mei Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO₂ emissions across the United States in 2050. We employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135761940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal","authors":"Yang Ou ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Ryna Cui ,&nbsp;Alicia Zhao ,&nbsp;Kowan T.V. O'Keefe ,&nbsp;Mengqi Zhao ,&nbsp;Yang Qiu ,&nbsp;Daniel H. Loughlin","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. We show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km³/year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km²). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91965604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The global impact and heterogeneity of China's climate policies","authors":"Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Zhendong Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To quantify the impacts of China's climate mitigation policies on other nations, we use the multi-regional input-output model and the world input-output database (WIOD) 2014 to create several policy scenarios in this study. The results reveal that China's economic restructuring and emission intensity reduction policies reflect significant heterogeneity from both regional and sectoral perspectives. In absolute terms, developed countries have larger economic consequences and emission reductions than underdeveloped countries. In relative terms, the United States will lose only 0.1% of its GDP as China transitions to a services-driven economy by 2030, making it one of the least impacted countries. Countries like Australia and South Korea, which rely heavily on raw materials and China's traditional economic structure, would see their GDP shrink by 1.2–1.7% by 2030. It is worth noting that the central and eastern European countries have an obvious low-income - low-emissions agglomeration, and the potential for emission reductions in these countries needs to be further investigated. The most carbon-efficient industries are education and health care. Therefore, more investment in these relevant industries should be made in the coming decade to minimize the increase in carbon emissions associated with trade flows growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100116"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43354931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}