Energy and climate change最新文献_第9页

Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate 量化气候变化下天气模式对北海风力发电和斜坡事件的影响

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113

Bedassa R. Cheneka , Simon J. Watson , Sukanta Basu

{"title":"Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate","authors":"Bedassa R. Cheneka , Simon J. Watson , Sukanta Basu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Only a few studies on the overall impact of climate change on offshore wind power production and wind power ramps in the North Sea region have been published. This study focuses on the characteristics of expected wind power production and wind power ramps in the future climate aided by the classification of circulations patterns using a self-organizing map (SOM). A SOM is used to cluster high-resolution CMIP5-CORDEX sea level pressure data into 30 European area weather patterns. These patterns are used to better understand wind power production trends and any potential changes. An increased frequency of occurrence and extended persistence of high pressure systems lasting at least 24 h is projected in the future. Whereas a contrasting reducing tendency for low-pressure systems is estimated. No significant evidence is seen for a change in wind power capacity factor over the North Sea, though tentative evidence is seen for a reduction in wind power ramps. Annual energy production is seen to be dominated by a small number of weather patterns with westerly, south-westerly or north-westerly winds. Future wind power production is projected to become less from westerly winds and more from south-westerly and north-westerly flows. Ramp up events are primarily associated with strong south-westerly winds or weather patterns with a weak pressure gradient. Ramp down events have a stronger association with more north-westerly flow. In a future climate, a reduction in ramp up events associated with weak pressure gradients is projected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100113"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49899028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A machine learning approach for resource mapping analysis of greenhouse gas removal technologies 一种用于温室气体去除技术资源映射分析的机器学习方法

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100112

Jude O. Asibor, Peter T. Clough, Seyed Ali Nabavi, Vasilije Manovic

{"title":"A machine learning approach for resource mapping analysis of greenhouse gas removal technologies","authors":"Jude O. Asibor, Peter T. Clough, Seyed Ali Nabavi, Vasilije Manovic","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, machine learning (ML) was applied to investigate the suitability of a location to deploy five greenhouse gas removal (GGR) methods within a global context, based on a location's bio-geophysical and techno-economic characteristics. The GGR methods considered are forestation, enhanced weathering (EW), direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biochar. An unsupervised ML (hierarchical clustering) technique was applied to label the dataset. Seven supervised ML algorithms were applied in training and testing the labelled dataset with the k-Nearest neighbour (k-NN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest algorithms having the highest performance accuracies of 96%, 98% and 100% respectively. A case study of Scotland's suitability to deploy these GGR methods was carried out with obtained results indicating a high correlation between the ML model results and information in the available literature. While the performance accuracy of the ML models was typically high (76 - 100%), an assessment of its decision-making logic (model interpretation) revealed some limitations regarding the impact of the various input variables on the outputs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41788473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency 能源情报署和国际能源署对中国能源预测的准确性评估

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111

Hui Shen, Xin Wen, Evelina Trutnevyte

{"title":"Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency","authors":"Hui Shen, Xin Wen, Evelina Trutnevyte","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Energy projections are of great importance to energy policies but have consistently shown noticeable and repeated errors, and thus require accuracy assessment for improvement. International Energy Outlook (IEO) of the US Energy Information Administration and World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency publish widely used energy projections, whose accuracy for China – the largest energy consuming economy and carbon dioxide emitter – has been rarely explored. This study investigates accuracy of China's reference energy projections in the annual reports of IEO and WEO from 2004 to 2019. Results show that most projections in IEO and WEO underestimated China's total energy consumption, particularly over longer projection horizons. The use of coal, natural gas and renewable energy tended to be underestimated, and nuclear energy was overestimated. The errors of industry and transport sectors were comparable and higher than for the other sectors. WEO showed substantially better accuracy than IEO in projections of total energy consumption, primary energy resources (except for nuclear energy) and end-use sectors. Projection horizon, errors in projected population's size, oil price and gross domestic product per capita were four leading factors related to the projection errors and hence they require particular attention in future modeling. For policy makers, this study shows that, if IEO and WEO projections are used to guide the policy making, China needs more aggressive policies in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100111"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49898996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Swiss electricity supply scenarios: Perspectives from the young generation 瑞士电力供应情景:来自年轻一代的视角

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100109

Simona Holzer , Alexane Dubois , Julia Cousse, Georgios Xexakis, Evelina Trutnevyte

{"title":"Swiss electricity supply scenarios: Perspectives from the young generation","authors":"Simona Holzer , Alexane Dubois , Julia Cousse, Georgios Xexakis, Evelina Trutnevyte","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While numerous studies have argued that public preferences need to be considered in energy transitions, the public has rarely informed the choice of normative scenarios from energy systems modelling. Using the case of Swiss electricity supply in 2035, we focus on a specific citizen group—school pupils of 10 to 18 years old—and use educational workshops to form and elicit their preferences in a way that helps choose scenarios from modelling. Initially, the 164 involved pupils had a simplistic understanding that future electricity supply mainly needs solar PV and electricity savings, but after our workshops they developed a more complete view that involved other technologies. The mean preferred scenario of the pupils for modelling relied on 88% renewable electricity, complemented by small shares of nuclear power, natural gas-based generation, and almost no net electricity imports. When compared to preferred scenarios for modelling elicited from 79 adult citizens and 60 energy experts in Switzerland, the pupils were less ambitious, since adults and experts preferred scenarios with 99% and 97% renewable sources on average. Most pupils opted for much more renewable electricity and less fossil fuel-based generation and imports than existing 82 model-based scenarios published in 2011–2018, indicating that the pupils’ preferred scenarios should complement existing scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100109"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44690650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Land use trade-offs in decarbonization of electricity generation in the American West 美国西部发电脱碳中的土地利用权衡

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100107

Neha Patankar , Xiili Sarkela-Basset , Greg Schivley , Emily Leslie , Jesse Jenkins

引用次数: 0

Temporally detailed modeling and analysis of global net zero energy systems focusing on variable renewable energy 基于可变可再生能源的全球净零能源系统的临时详细建模与分析

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108

Takashi OTSUKI , Ryoichi KOMIYAMA , Yasumasa FUJII , Hiroko NAKAMURA

{"title":"Temporally detailed modeling and analysis of global net zero energy systems focusing on variable renewable energy","authors":"Takashi OTSUKI , Ryoichi KOMIYAMA , Yasumasa FUJII , Hiroko NAKAMURA","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study newly develops a recursive-dynamic global energy model with an hourly temporal resolution for electricity and hydrogen balances, aiming to assess the role of variable renewable energy (VRE) in a carbon-neutral world. This model, formulated as a large-scale linear programming model (with 500 million each of variables and constraints), calculates the energy supply for 100 regions by 2050. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to incorporate the variable output of VRE and system integration options, such as batteries, water electrolysis, curtailment, and the flexible charging of battery electric vehicles. Optimization results suggest that combing various technical options suitable for local energy situations is critical to reducing global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions cost-effectively. Not only VRE but also CCS-equipped gas-fired and biomass-fired power plants largely contribute to decarbonizing power supply. The share of VRE in global power generation in 2050 is estimated to be 57% in a cost-effective case. The results also imply economic challenges for an energy system based on 100% renewable energy. For example, the average mitigation cost in 2050 is 69USD/tCO<sub>2</sub> in the cost-effective case, while it increases to 139USD/tCO<sub>2</sub> in the 100% renewable case. The robustness of this argument is tested by sensitivity analyses.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100108"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45726735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework CGE框架中深度脱碳情景的能源组合和经济成本建模

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100106

Elisabeth A. Gilmore , Madanmohan Ghosh , Peter Johnston , Muhammad-Shahid Siddiqui , Nick Macaluso

{"title":"Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework","authors":"Elisabeth A. Gilmore , Madanmohan Ghosh , Peter Johnston , Muhammad-Shahid Siddiqui , Nick Macaluso","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the energy mix and welfare implication of deep decarbonization pathways with net negative emission technologies for North America and globally to 2050 in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. The analysis uses an integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to develop three bounding emission scenarios: i) A business as usual pathway (BAU), ii) A pathway bounded by the Nationally Determined Contributions and attaining a 2°C end of century target (NDC-2°C), and iii) An increasing ambition pathway that attains a 1.5°C end of century target (NDC-1.5°C). The energy mix and economic impacts of these emissions pathways are then evaluated using Environment Canada's Multi-Sector, Multi-Regional (EC-MSMR) CGE model. When bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC) are available, they play an important role in achieving emission reductions. Allowing the use of DAC preserves an additional 5% to 20% of the share of fossil fuels in North America. Including DAC in deep decarbonization pathways lowers the welfare loss by up to ∼1% globally compared to those without DAC in 2050. This finding is robust to both the estimated price of and constraints on DAC deployment. Increasing the potential for fuel switching in the CGE model further reduces the welfare effects for deep decarbonization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100106"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48569422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Quantile integration order of decarbonized energy series using a Fourier function in the deterministic trend 用确定趋势的傅里叶函数计算脱碳能源序列的分位数积分顺序

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100105

Nicolas Schneider , Yifei Cai

{"title":"Quantile integration order of decarbonized energy series using a Fourier function in the deterministic trend","authors":"Nicolas Schneider , Yifei Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The logic of analysing the stationary features in energy series lays in the policy potentials that unit root assessments confer. This paper identifies the integration properties of renewable energy consumption series in Germany, Italy, Poland, France, Spain, and Netherlands: six energy leaders but also top carbon emitters in the Schengen area. A stepwise integration property testing framework is applied on data spanning more than five decades. It includes a set of univariate unit root tests (ADF, PP, DFGLS, and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin tests); stationary procedures allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks in the intercept and the time-trends (CMR, ZA); double breaks in the deterministic trend (LS); along with the Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2017)’s extension of the Koenker and Xiao (2004) Fourier Quantile Unit Root test incorporating smooth breaks in the deterministic trend. In neither France, nor Italy, Poland, or Spain, renewable energy consumption series reject the null hypothesis of non-stationarity. This contrasts with German data displaying quantiles-varied integrational properties, whereas the Netherlands presents stable stationary features along each stage of the procedure. In addition to prospects for future research, policy suggestions involving bridging fuels are proposed to offer a secure and less volatile supply of green energies, reach IPCC climate targets, and avoid transitory shocks transmitted back to macroeconomic variables.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49898991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study 能源建模论坛第37期研究中美国2050年净零二氧化碳情景

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104

Morgan Browning , James McFarland , John Bistline , Gale Boyd , Matteo Muratori , Matthew Binsted , Chioke Harris , Trieu Mai , Geoff Blanford , Jae Edmonds , Allen A. Fawcett , Ozge Kaplan , John Weyant

{"title":"Net-zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study","authors":"Morgan Browning , James McFarland , John Bistline , Gale Boyd , Matteo Muratori , Matthew Binsted , Chioke Harris , Trieu Mai , Geoff Blanford , Jae Edmonds , Allen A. Fawcett , Ozge Kaplan , John Weyant","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. For this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49898992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

Expanding carbon removal to the Global South: Thematic concerns on systems, justice, and climate governance 将碳去除扩大到全球南方：关于系统、司法和气候治理的专题关注

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100103

Benjamin K. Sovacool

引用次数: 2