Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results

Abstract

This paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum study on Deep Decarbonization and High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with a specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenario guidelines, policies, and technological advancements.

The results demonstrate that CDR, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), and afforestation, are key technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios and account for 40–60 % of avoided carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions annually. From 2025 to 2050, cumulative CO₂ abatement by CDR technologies will range from 37 to 47 billion tons (GtCO₂), or more than 2 GtCO₂ annually by 2050. The potential scale of CDR and its impact depends on the advancement and costs of energy supply and demand technologies, end-use sector electrification, and availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the price of carbon is substantially lower when advanced technologies are available, particularly in the EMF 37 carbon management scenarios [1].

While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, the results display relatively large-scale BECCS deployment. The study found that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions after 2035, and, in the medium term, CO₂ sequestration by BECCS will depend on CO₂ price; BECCS deployment starts at a carbon price of around $70/tCO₂. Long-term CO₂ sequestration by BECCS increases in all scenarios, reaching the same annual level of ∼890 MtCO₂ by 2050 in net-zero CO₂ scenarios. According to the modeling results, DAC acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices of around $600/tCO₂.