Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies","authors":"John Bistline ,&nbsp;Chikara Onda ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Johannes Emmerling ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer ,&nbsp;Megan Mahajan ,&nbsp;Jim McFarland ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Robbie Orvis ,&nbsp;Francisco Ralston Fonseca ,&nbsp;Christopher Roney ,&nbsp;Noah Sandoval ,&nbsp;Luis Sarmiento ,&nbsp;John Weyant ,&nbsp;Jared Woollacott ,&nbsp;Mei Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO₂ emissions across the United States in 2050. We employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135761940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal","authors":"Yang Ou ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Ryna Cui ,&nbsp;Alicia Zhao ,&nbsp;Kowan T.V. O'Keefe ,&nbsp;Mengqi Zhao ,&nbsp;Yang Qiu ,&nbsp;Daniel H. Loughlin","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. We show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km³/year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km²). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91965604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The global impact and heterogeneity of China's climate policies","authors":"Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Zhendong Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To quantify the impacts of China's climate mitigation policies on other nations, we use the multi-regional input-output model and the world input-output database (WIOD) 2014 to create several policy scenarios in this study. The results reveal that China's economic restructuring and emission intensity reduction policies reflect significant heterogeneity from both regional and sectoral perspectives. In absolute terms, developed countries have larger economic consequences and emission reductions than underdeveloped countries. In relative terms, the United States will lose only 0.1% of its GDP as China transitions to a services-driven economy by 2030, making it one of the least impacted countries. Countries like Australia and South Korea, which rely heavily on raw materials and China's traditional economic structure, would see their GDP shrink by 1.2–1.7% by 2030. It is worth noting that the central and eastern European countries have an obvious low-income - low-emissions agglomeration, and the potential for emission reductions in these countries needs to be further investigated. The most carbon-efficient industries are education and health care. Therefore, more investment in these relevant industries should be made in the coming decade to minimize the increase in carbon emissions associated with trade flows growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100116"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43354931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the environmental impacts of backup generation after power outages: A case study of China","authors":"Boyan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hao Chen ,&nbsp;Kexi Liu ,&nbsp;Weijun He","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Backup generators (BG) are indispensable to address the potential electricity security risks caused by extreme weather, cyber attack and infrastructure failure. Diesel generators, the major BG component, are more polluting than grid electricity, which are in the blind spot of environmental regulation and statistics. To contribute to better environmental policies for the electricity sector, this study estimates the environmental impacts of backup generation in China. A BG capacity evaluation model is firstly developed based on the safety design rules of different buildings. Then, an environmental cost assessment model is constructed to quantify the impacts of pollutant emissions from BG after power outages. At last, this paper uses an improved Monte Carlo method to re-examine the estimated results considering multiple uncertain factors and analyzes their contributions to the total cost variance. Our major findings are: (1) The estimated total BG capacity is 169.46 GW in 2020, representing 7.70% of the total generation capacity in China. (2) The environmental cost of BG generation is 6.60 billion yuan in 2020. (3) Sichuan and Hubei suffer the highest environmental impacts at the provincial level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45575846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the impacts of synoptic weather patterns on North Sea wind power production and ramp events under a changing climate","authors":"Bedassa R. Cheneka ,&nbsp;Simon J. Watson ,&nbsp;Sukanta Basu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100113","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Only a few studies on the overall impact of climate change on offshore wind power production and wind power ramps in the North Sea region have been published. This study focuses on the characteristics of expected wind power production and wind power ramps in the future climate aided by the classification of circulations patterns using a self-organizing map (SOM). A SOM is used to cluster high-resolution CMIP5-CORDEX sea level pressure data into 30 European area weather patterns. These patterns are used to better understand wind power production trends and any potential changes. An increased frequency of occurrence and extended persistence of high pressure systems lasting at least 24 h is projected in the future. Whereas a contrasting reducing tendency for low-pressure systems is estimated. No significant evidence is seen for a change in wind power capacity factor over the North Sea, though tentative evidence is seen for a reduction in wind power ramps. Annual energy production is seen to be dominated by a small number of weather patterns with westerly, south-westerly or north-westerly winds. Future wind power production is projected to become less from westerly winds and more from south-westerly and north-westerly flows. Ramp up events are primarily associated with strong south-westerly winds or weather patterns with a weak pressure gradient. Ramp down events have a stronger association with more north-westerly flow. In a future climate, a reduction in ramp up events associated with weak pressure gradients is projected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100113"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49899028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A machine learning approach for resource mapping analysis of greenhouse gas removal technologies","authors":"Jude O. Asibor,&nbsp;Peter T. Clough,&nbsp;Seyed Ali Nabavi,&nbsp;Vasilije Manovic","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, machine learning (ML) was applied to investigate the suitability of a location to deploy five greenhouse gas removal (GGR) methods within a global context, based on a location's bio-geophysical and techno-economic characteristics. The GGR methods considered are forestation, enhanced weathering (EW), direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biochar. An unsupervised ML (hierarchical clustering) technique was applied to label the dataset. Seven supervised ML algorithms were applied in training and testing the labelled dataset with the k-Nearest neighbour (k-NN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest algorithms having the highest performance accuracies of 96%, 98% and 100% respectively. A case study of Scotland's suitability to deploy these GGR methods was carried out with obtained results indicating a high correlation between the ML model results and information in the available literature. While the performance accuracy of the ML models was typically high (76 - 100%), an assessment of its decision-making logic (model interpretation) revealed some limitations regarding the impact of the various input variables on the outputs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41788473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency","authors":"Hui Shen,&nbsp;Xin Wen,&nbsp;Evelina Trutnevyte","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Energy projections are of great importance to energy policies but have consistently shown noticeable and repeated errors, and thus require accuracy assessment for improvement. International Energy Outlook (IEO) of the US Energy Information Administration and World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency publish widely used energy projections, whose accuracy for China – the largest energy consuming economy and carbon dioxide emitter – has been rarely explored. This study investigates accuracy of China's reference energy projections in the annual reports of IEO and WEO from 2004 to 2019. Results show that most projections in IEO and WEO underestimated China's total energy consumption, particularly over longer projection horizons. The use of coal, natural gas and renewable energy tended to be underestimated, and nuclear energy was overestimated. The errors of industry and transport sectors were comparable and higher than for the other sectors. WEO showed substantially better accuracy than IEO in projections of total energy consumption, primary energy resources (except for nuclear energy) and end-use sectors. Projection horizon, errors in projected population's size, oil price and gross domestic product per capita were four leading factors related to the projection errors and hence they require particular attention in future modeling. For policy makers, this study shows that, if IEO and WEO projections are used to guide the policy making, China needs more aggressive policies in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100111"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49898996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Swiss electricity supply scenarios: Perspectives from the young generation","authors":"Simona Holzer ,&nbsp;Alexane Dubois ,&nbsp;Julia Cousse,&nbsp;Georgios Xexakis,&nbsp;Evelina Trutnevyte","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While numerous studies have argued that public preferences need to be considered in energy transitions, the public has rarely informed the choice of normative scenarios from energy systems modelling. Using the case of Swiss electricity supply in 2035, we focus on a specific citizen group—school pupils of 10 to 18 years old—and use educational workshops to form and elicit their preferences in a way that helps choose scenarios from modelling. Initially, the 164 involved pupils had a simplistic understanding that future electricity supply mainly needs solar PV and electricity savings, but after our workshops they developed a more complete view that involved other technologies. The mean preferred scenario of the pupils for modelling relied on 88% renewable electricity, complemented by small shares of nuclear power, natural gas-based generation, and almost no net electricity imports. When compared to preferred scenarios for modelling elicited from 79 adult citizens and 60 energy experts in Switzerland, the pupils were less ambitious, since adults and experts preferred scenarios with 99% and 97% renewable sources on average. Most pupils opted for much more renewable electricity and less fossil fuel-based generation and imports than existing 82 model-based scenarios published in 2011–2018, indicating that the pupils’ preferred scenarios should complement existing scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100109"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44690650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land use trade-offs in decarbonization of electricity generation in the American West","authors":"Neha Patankar ,&nbsp;Xiili Sarkela-Basset ,&nbsp;Greg Schivley ,&nbsp;Emily Leslie ,&nbsp;Jesse Jenkins","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Land-use conflicts may constrain the unprecedented rates of renewable energy deployment required to meet the decarbonization goals of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This paper employs geospatially resolved data and a detailed electricity system capacity expansion model to generate 160 affordable, zero-carbon electricity supply portfolios for the American west and evaluates the land use impacts of each portfolio. Less than 4% of all sites suitable for solar development and 17% of all wind sites appear in this set of portfolios. Of these sites, 53% of solar and 85% of wind sites exhibit higher development risk and potential for land-related conflict. We thus find that clean electricity goals cannot be achieved affordably without substantial renewable development on sites with potential for land use conflict. However, this paper identifies significant flexibility across western U.S. states to site renewable energy or alter the composition of the electricity supply portfolio to ameliorate potential conflicts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49898994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporally detailed modeling and analysis of global net zero energy systems focusing on variable renewable energy","authors":"Takashi OTSUKI ,&nbsp;Ryoichi KOMIYAMA ,&nbsp;Yasumasa FUJII ,&nbsp;Hiroko NAKAMURA","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study newly develops a recursive-dynamic global energy model with an hourly temporal resolution for electricity and hydrogen balances, aiming to assess the role of variable renewable energy (VRE) in a carbon-neutral world. This model, formulated as a large-scale linear programming model (with 500 million each of variables and constraints), calculates the energy supply for 100 regions by 2050. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to incorporate the variable output of VRE and system integration options, such as batteries, water electrolysis, curtailment, and the flexible charging of battery electric vehicles. Optimization results suggest that combing various technical options suitable for local energy situations is critical to reducing global CO₂ emissions cost-effectively. Not only VRE but also CCS-equipped gas-fired and biomass-fired power plants largely contribute to decarbonizing power supply. The share of VRE in global power generation in 2050 is estimated to be 57% in a cost-effective case. The results also imply economic challenges for an energy system based on 100% renewable energy. For example, the average mitigation cost in 2050 is 69USD/tCO₂ in the cost-effective case, while it increases to 139USD/tCO₂ in the 100% renewable case. The robustness of this argument is tested by sensitivity analyses.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100108"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45726735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}