Is energy planning consistent with climate goals? Assessing future emissions from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

Ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality since 2019. We assess whether electricity planning in the region has evolved towards reaching this goal. We compare power generation capacity in 2023 with announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants – emissions that would result from the normal operation of these plants during their typical lifetime – and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47 % since 2019, compared to an increase of 24 % of planned renewable power plants. Countries with net-zero pledges tended to cancel more fossil fuel power capacity. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO₂ during their lifespan, and if all planned fossil fuel plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO₂. The total 11.6 GtCO₂ emissions exceeds median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO₂). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62 %) and planned (75 %) emissions. We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants come into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 67 %, meeting the median 2 °C budget, but still falling short of the median 1.5 °C budget. While progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by IPCC scenarios.