Elizabeth L Fisher, Christopher J Whyte, Jakob Hohwy
{"title":"An Active Inference Model of the Optimism Bias.","authors":"Elizabeth L Fisher, Christopher J Whyte, Jakob Hohwy","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.125","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.125","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The optimism bias is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the likelihood of good outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes. Associated with improved quality of life, optimism bias is considered to be adaptive and is a promising avenue of research for mental health interventions in conditions where individuals lack optimism such as major depressive disorder. Here we lay the groundwork for future research on optimism as an intervention by introducing a domain general formal model of optimism bias, which can be applied in different task settings. Employing the active inference framework, we propose a model of the optimism bias as high precision likelihood biased towards positive outcomes. First, we simulate how optimism may be lost during development by exposure to negative events. We then ground our model in the empirical literature by showing how the developmentally acquired differences in optimism are expressed in a belief updating task typically used to assess optimism bias. Finally, we show how optimism affects action in a modified two-armed bandit task. Our model and the simulations it affords provide a computational basis for understanding how optimism bias may emerge, how it may be expressed in standard tasks used to assess optimism, and how it affects agents' decision-making and actions; in combination, this provides a basis for future research on optimism as a mental health intervention.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"9 1","pages":"3-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11784508/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143082368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alexandra C Pike, Katrina H T Tan, Hoda Tromblee, Michelle Wing, Oliver J Robinson
{"title":"Test-Retest Reliability of Two Computationally-Characterised Affective Bias Tasks.","authors":"Alexandra C Pike, Katrina H T Tan, Hoda Tromblee, Michelle Wing, Oliver J Robinson","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.92","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.92","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Affective biases are commonly seen in disorders such as depression and anxiety, where individuals may show attention towards and preferential processing of negative or threatening stimuli. Affective biases have been shown to change with effective intervention: randomized controlled trials into these biases and the mechanisms that underpin them may allow greater understanding of how interventions can be improved and their success be maximized. For such trials to be informative, we must have reliable ways of measuring affective bias over time, so we can detect how and whether they are altered by interventions: the test-retest reliability of our measures puts an upper bound on our ability to detect any changes. In this online study we therefore examined the test-retest reliability of two behavioural affective bias tasks (an 'Ambiguous Midpoint' and a 'Go-Nogo' task). 58 individuals recruited from the general population completed the tasks twice, with at least 14 days in between sessions. We analysed the reliability of both summary statistics and parameters from computational models using Pearson's correlations and intra-class correlations. Standard summary statistic measures from these affective bias tasks had reliabilities ranging from 0.18 (poor) to 0.49 (moderate). Parameters from computational modelling of these tasks were in many cases less reliable than summary statistics. However, embedding the covariance between sessions within the generative modelling framework resulted in higher estimates of stability. We conclude that measures from these affective bias tasks are moderately reliable, but further work to improve the reliability of these tasks would improve still further our ability to draw inferences in randomized trials.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"217-232"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11661199/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142878738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amy M Rapp, Brandon K Ashinoff, Seth Baker, H Blair Simpson, Guillermo Horga
{"title":"Transdiagnostic Anxiety-Related Increases in Information Sampling are Associated With Altered Valuation.","authors":"Amy M Rapp, Brandon K Ashinoff, Seth Baker, H Blair Simpson, Guillermo Horga","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5334/cpsy.100","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Excessive information sampling in psychiatric patients characterized by high trait anxiety has been inconsistently linked with alterations in inferential and valuation processes. Methodological limitations could account in part for these inconsistencies. To address this, computational models of inference and valuation were applied to data collected from a transdiagnostic sample of adults with and without an anxiety or compulsive disorder using a version of the beads task with enhanced experimental controls. Participants diagnosed with an anxiety or compulsive disorder (<i>n</i> = 35) and healthy controls (<i>n</i> = 23) completed the beads task with three majority-to-minority ratios of blue versus green beads (60:40, 75:25, 90:10). First, a Bayesian belief-updating model was fit to quantify the iterative process by which new information (bead color) and prior beliefs were integrated to influence current beliefs about jar identity. Next, a parameterized partially observable Markov decision process model was used to parse the contribution of value-based decisions to sampling behavior and included a relative subjective cost parameter, <i>C<sub>sub</sub></i> , for each bead-ratio condition. Higher trait anxiety was associated with more draws-to-decision, most robustly in the 90:10 bead-ratio condition. Only relative subjective cost of sampling decisions, and not inferential differences in weighting of new or old information, satisfactorily accounted for this relation. Specifically, lower <i>C<sub>sub</sub>(0.9)</i> was associated with more trait anxiety and more draws-to-decision. In a condition with high objective evidence strength, transdiagnostic trait-anxiety-related increases in information sampling were explained by a cost-benefit analysis where relatively higher subjective cost was assigned to an incorrect guess, highlighting valuation as a potential treatment target for future research.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"202-216"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11545924/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142633710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"RDoC Framework Through the Lens of Predictive Processing: Focusing on Cognitive Systems Domain.","authors":"Anahita Khorrami Banaraki, Armin Toghi, Azar Mohammadzadeh","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.119","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.119","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In response to shortcomings of the current classification system in translating discoveries from basic science to clinical applications, NIMH offers a new framework for studying mental health disorders called Research Domain Criteria (RDoC). This framework holds a multidimensional outlook on psychopathologies focusing on functional domains of behavior and their implementing neural circuits. In parallel, the Predictive Processing (PP) framework stands as a leading theory of human brain function, offering a unified explanation for various types of information processing in the brain. While both frameworks share an interest in studying psychopathologies based on pathophysiology, their integration still needs to be explored. Here, we argued in favor of the explanatory power of PP to be a groundwork for the RDoC matrix in validating its constructs and creating testable hypotheses about mechanistic interactions between molecular biomarkers and clinical traits. Together, predictive processing may serve as a foundation for achieving the goals of the RDoC framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"178-201"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11523845/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142549301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nitay Alon, Lion Schulz, Vaughan Bell, Michael Moutoussis, Peter Dayan, Joseph M Barnby
{"title":"(Mal)adaptive Mentalizing in the Cognitive Hierarchy, and Its Link to Paranoia.","authors":"Nitay Alon, Lion Schulz, Vaughan Bell, Michael Moutoussis, Peter Dayan, Joseph M Barnby","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5334/cpsy.117","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Humans need to be on their toes when interacting with competitive others to avoid being taken advantage of. Too much caution out of context can, however, be detrimental and produce false beliefs of intended harm. Here, we offer a formal account of this phenomenon through the lens of Theory of Mind. We simulate agents of different depths of mentalizing within a simple game theoretic paradigm and show how, if aligned well, deep recursive mentalization gives rise to both successful deception as well as reasonable skepticism. However, we also show that if a self is mentalizing too deeply - hyper-mentalizing - false beliefs arise that a partner is trying to trick them maliciously, resulting in a material loss to the self. Importantly, we show that this is only true when hypermentalizing agents believe observed actions are generated intentionally. This theory offers a potential cognitive mechanism for suspiciousness, paranoia, and conspiratorial ideation. Rather than a deficit in Theory of Mind, paranoia may arise from the application of overly strategic thinking to ingenuous behaviour.</p><p><strong>Author summary: </strong>Interacting competitively requires vigilance to avoid deception. However, excessive caution can have adverse effects, stemming from false beliefs of intentional harm. So far there is no formal cognitive account of what may cause this suspiciousness. Here we present an examination of this phenomenon through the lens of Theory of Mind - the cognitive ability to consider the beliefs, intentions, and desires of others. By simulating interacting computer agents we illustrate how well-aligned agents can give rise to successful deception and justified skepticism. Crucially, we also reveal that overly cautious agents develop false beliefs that an ingenuous partner is attempting malicious trickery, leading to tangible losses. As well as formally defining a plausible mechanism for suspiciousness, paranoia, and conspiratorial thinking, our theory indicates that rather than a deficit in Theory of Mind, paranoia may involve an over-application of strategy to genuine behaviour.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"159-177"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11396085/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142302416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Decision-Making, Pro-variance Biases and Mood-Related Traits.","authors":"Wanjun Lin, Raymond J Dolan","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.114","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.114","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In value-based decision-making there is wide behavioural variability in how individuals respond to uncertainty. Maladaptive responses to uncertainty have been linked to a vulnerability to mental illness, for example, between risk aversion and affective disorders. Here, we examine individual differences in risk sensitivity when subjects confront options drawn from different value distributions, where these embody the same or different means and variances. In simulations, we show that a model that learns a distribution using Bayes' rule and reads out different parts of the distribution under the influence of a risk-sensitive parameter (Conditional Value at Risk, CVaR) predicts how likely an agent is to prefer a broader over a narrow distribution (pro-variance bias/risk-seeking) under the same overall means. Using empirical data, we show that CVaR estimates correlate with participants' pro-variance biases better than a range of alternative parameters derived from other models. Importantly, across two independent samples, CVaR estimates and participants' pro-variance bias negatively correlated with trait rumination, a common trait in depression and anxiety. We conclude that a Bayesian-CVaR model captures individual differences in sensitivity to variance in value distributions and task-independent trait dispositions linked to affective disorders.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"142-158"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11342847/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142057480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sam Paskewitz, Inti A Brazil, Ilker Yildirim, Sonia Ruiz, Arielle Baskin-Sommers
{"title":"Enhancing Within-Person Estimation of Neurocognition and the Prediction of Externalizing Behaviors in Adolescents.","authors":"Sam Paskewitz, Inti A Brazil, Ilker Yildirim, Sonia Ruiz, Arielle Baskin-Sommers","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.112","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.112","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Decades of research document an association between neurocognitive dysfunction and externalizing behaviors, including rule-breaking, aggression, and impulsivity. However, there has been very little work that examines how multiple neurocognitive functions co-occur within individuals and which combinations of neurocognitive functions are most relevant for externalizing behaviors. Moreover, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), a widely used method for grouping individuals in person-centered analysis, often struggles to balance the tradeoff between good model fit (splitting participants into many latent profiles) and model interpretability (using only a few, highly distinct latent profiles). To address these problems, we implemented a non-parametric Bayesian form of LPA based on the Dirichlet process mixture model (DPM-LPA) and used it to study the relationship between neurocognitive functioning and externalizing behaviors in adolescents participating in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study. First, we found that DPM-LPA outperformed conventional LPA, revealing more distinct profiles and classifying participants with higher certainty. Second, latent profiles extracted from DPM-LPA were differentially related to externalizing behaviors: profiles with deficits in working memory, inhibition, and/or language abilities were robustly related to different expressions of externalizing. Together, these findings represent a step towards addressing the challenge of finding novel ways to use neurocognitive data to better describe the individual. By precisely identifying and specifying the variation in neurocognitive and behavioral patterns this work offers an innovative empirical foundation for the development of assessments and interventions that address these costly behaviors.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"119-141"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11276473/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141790191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alkistis Saramandi, Laura Crucianelli, Athanasios Koukoutsakis, Veronica Nisticò, Liza Mavromara, Diana Goeta, Giovanni Boido, Fragiskos Gonidakis, Benedetta Demartini, Sara Bertelli, Orsola Gambini, Paul M Jenkinson, Aikaterini Fotopoulou
{"title":"Updating Prospective Self-Efficacy Beliefs About Cardiac Interoception in Anorexia Nervosa: An Experimental and Computational Study.","authors":"Alkistis Saramandi, Laura Crucianelli, Athanasios Koukoutsakis, Veronica Nisticò, Liza Mavromara, Diana Goeta, Giovanni Boido, Fragiskos Gonidakis, Benedetta Demartini, Sara Bertelli, Orsola Gambini, Paul M Jenkinson, Aikaterini Fotopoulou","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.109","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.109","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) typically hold altered beliefs about their body that they struggle to update, including global, prospective beliefs about their ability to know and regulate their body and particularly their interoceptive states. While clinical questionnaire studies have provided ample evidence on the role of such beliefs in the onset, maintenance, and treatment of AN, psychophysical studies have typically focused on perceptual and 'local' beliefs. Across two experiments, we examined how women at the acute AN (N = 86) and post-acute AN state (N = 87), compared to matched healthy controls (N = 180) formed and updated their self-efficacy beliefs retrospectively (Experiment 1) and prospectively (Experiment 2) about their heartbeat counting abilities in an adapted heartbeat counting task. As preregistered, while AN patients did not differ from controls in interoceptive accuracy <i>per se</i>, they hold and maintain 'pessimistic' interoceptive, metacognitive self-efficacy beliefs after performance. Modelling using a simplified computational Bayesian learning framework showed that neither local evidence from performance, nor retrospective beliefs following that performance (that themselves were suboptimally updated) seem to be sufficient to counter and update pessimistic, self-efficacy beliefs in AN. AN patients showed lower learning rates than controls, revealing a tendency to base their posterior beliefs more on prior beliefs rather than prediction errors in both retrospective and prospective belief updating. Further explorations showed that while these differences in both explicit beliefs, and the latent mechanisms of belief updating, were not explained by general cognitive flexibility differences, they were explained by negative mood comorbidity, even after the acute stage of illness.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"92-118"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11212784/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141473201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dan Holley, Erica A Varga, Erie D Boorman, Andrew S Fox
{"title":"Temporal Dynamics of Uncertainty Cause Anxiety and Avoidance.","authors":"Dan Holley, Erica A Varga, Erie D Boorman, Andrew S Fox","doi":"10.5334/cpsy.105","DOIUrl":"10.5334/cpsy.105","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Alfred Hitchcock, film director and \"Master of Suspense,\" observed that terror is not driven by a negative event, but \"only in the anticipation of it.\" This observation is not restricted to the movies: Anxiety builds when we anticipate uncertain negative events, and heightened reactivity during uncertain threat anticipation is a transdiagnostic marker of anxiety (Grupe & Nitschke, 2013; Holley & Fox, 2022; Hur et al., 2020; Krain et al., 2008; Simmons et al., 2008; Yassa et al., 2012). Here, we manipulate the temporal dynamics of an uncertain threat to demonstrate how the evolving expectation of threat can lead people to forgo rewards and experience fear/anxiety. Specifically, we show that increased \"hazard rate,\" which can build during periods of uncertainty, promotes a tendency to avoid threatening contexts while increasing fear/anxiety. These results provide insight into <i>why</i> the anticipation of temporally uncertain threats elicits fear/anxiety, and reframe the underlying causes of related psychopathology.</p>","PeriodicalId":72664,"journal":{"name":"Computational psychiatry (Cambridge, Mass.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"85-91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11192096/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141444072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}