科学决策最新文献

{"title":"Modeling Spatial Structure of Thermokarst Lake Fields in Siberian Arctic by Satellite Imagery Based on Geo-Simulation and Heuristic Approaches","authors":"Y. Polishchuk, I. N. Muratov, M. Kupriyanov, V. Polishchuk","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.47","url":null,"abstract":"On the basis of geo-simulation and heuristic approaches, a model of the spatial structure of thermokarst lakes fields has been developed, which allows to take into account the lognormal distribution of real lakes in size and tortuosity of their coastal boundaries. As a result, the model represents lakes of all sizes, including small lakes, which are considered as the most intense sources of methane emission into the atmosphere from thermokarst lakes. The log-normal size distribution is confirmed by experimental data based on the integration of data from images of medium and high spatial resolution in the northern territories of Western Siberia. Studies of the statistical properties of the tortuosity of the coastal boundaries of the lakes using high-resolution images of Kanopus-V showed that the distribution of the the degree of tortuosity corresponds to the normal law. The statistical characteristics of the degree of tortuosity of real lakes are determined. On the basis of the heuristic approach, a method of forming model objects of arbitrary shape with a given area and degree of tortuosity in the Cartesian coordinate system has been developed. An algorithm for modeling the spatial structure of the fields of thermokarst lakes is described. Keywords—geo-simulation, heuristic modeling, remote sensing, thermokarst lakes, lake size-distribution, the tortuosity of coastal lakes, modeling algorithm, greenhouse gases, global warming","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82671860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decision Support in Assessing the Quality of Students' Educational and Scientific Work Based on Automated Text Analysis of the Document","authors":"N. Minasova, S. Tarkhov, L. Tarkhova","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.15","url":null,"abstract":"The article describes the software product \"Multifunctional Text Analyzer\" (MTA), designed for informational decision support in assessing the quality of educational and scientific works. The main algorithm is based on the original method for semantic analysis of both the individual structural components of the educational and scientific texts, and the logical relationships at the substantive part of their sections. The main actions which expert performs during the process of automated analysis of the documents‘ substantive part are described. The software allows: to evaluate the references at the analyzed document, and quality of using references at the text of the document also; to search for information of interest to the expert contained in the document; to evaluate the quality of the document by analyzing the congruence of the texts to its sections. Keywords—training, assessment, semantic analysis, text mining","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84452394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Summarizing Emotions from Text Using Plutchik’s Wheel of Emotions","authors":"Manshad Abbasi Mohsin, A. Beltiukov","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.52","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80021279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Study of the Problems of the Master-Slave Teleoperation Control Anthropomorphic Manipulator","authors":"V. Petrenko, F. Tebueva, M. Gurchinsky, S. Ryabtsev, N. Svistunov","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.29","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the problems of anthropomorphic manipulators (AM) master-slave teleoperation control. The aim of the work is to study the problems of the teleoperation control accuracy. The scheme of copying control system is considered in the article. The most characteristic problems for this control method are allocated. The discretization and restoring of the signal examples describing the rotation angle dependence of the manipulator joint on time are made. Real-time smoothing methods based on the calculation of the speed and acceleration of the signal change, as well as smoothing by piecewise linear interpolation with a delay of one discrete time tick are applied to the restored signal. For the restored signals with smoothing and without smoothing, the root mean square of deviation from the initial signal is estimated. Keywords—master-slave teleoperation control, anthropomorphic manipulator, exoskeleton, encoder, signal discretization, signal interpolation","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90153909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data Analysis Methods for Support Decision Making at Management of Complex Systems","authors":"N. Yusupova, O. Smetanina, E. Sazonova","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.49","url":null,"abstract":"Problems of organizing decision support in the management of complex systems based on data mining are discussed in this article; also, the state of the art is presented. The specificity of data used for analysis is noted, along with the array of historical and current data. The problem is stated, methods for organizing decision-making information support with set of recommendations are proposed. The proposed methodology includes collection and preparation of data for analysis, identification of new knowledge based on similarity of objects using clustering, their integration with expert knowledge, formalization of knowledge and formation of the knowledge base, obtaining solutions while making use of knowledge and inference engine. Tools for data mining, namely, the analytical platform Deductor Studio, are shown. The results of experimental studies based on the proposed method are provided. The system of production rules and the inference engine are proposed to use for organization of decision-making support. In this case, a consequent set of rules is presented in the form of recommendations for opening branch, which is shown as the boundary values of several characteristics. The boundary values are determined by results of an object entering the cluster, which is revealed by conducting cluster analysis using neural network apparatus. The specially developed software solution is used to implement solutions based on the system of production rules. Keywords—Data mining, production rules, Kohonen maps/Self-organizing map, inference engine, decision support.","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89338861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Decision Support of the Securities Portfolio Composition Based on the Particle Swarm Optimization","authors":"E. Bronshtein, O. Kondrateva","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.50","url":null,"abstract":"Stochastic behavioral methods are becoming increasingly widespread for optimization tasks solving. One of these methods is the particle swarm optimization (PSO). The particle swarm is an algorithm for finding optimal regions of complex search spaces through the interaction of individuals in a population of particles. Its effectiveness and efficiency has rendered it a valuable metaheuristic approach in various scientific fields where complex optimization problems appear. Investment activity in the stock market is an area where the use of optimization techniques is required. The volatility and unpredictability of future stock prices create a situation of uncertainty for decision making in the financial market. Investors are forced to solve a multi-criteria optimization problem when forming an effective securities portfolio. This article proposes to use PSO to compile an optimal securities portfolio based on combined entropy risk index indicators. The portfolio consisted of 8 shares of Russian companies, the shares of each stock in the portfolio were found using particle swarm optimization. The efficiency of the modified algorithm is investigated, coefficients are proposed, and the results of a computational experiment are obtained. Keywords—swarm intelligence, particle swarm optimization, multi-objective optimization task, securities portfolio, indexentropic risk measures. I. SECURITY PORTFOLIO The problem of securities portfolio formation is the actual issue in the modern economy. Depositors are investing assets in securities at the world's stock markets every day. The securities portfolio structure optimization is one of the main decision-making tasks in investment activity in the stock market. It is necessary to form such a portfolio of securities, which will bring the best result within a certain period. It is very difficult to generate an optimal portfolio in the face of uncertainty. In this paper a methodology for forming a securities portfolio based on combined index-entropy risk measures using the particle swarm optimization algorithm is outlined. A securities portfolio is a set of individual types of securities selected by an investor to achieve certain goals. The variety of securities in the market allow to form many securities portfolios different in composition. Investment portfolios may be different in terms of a return and a risk, depending on the current and strategic goals of investors. Let the portfolio structure be represented as the vector X=(x1,x2,...,xn), where xi is the share of the i – th stock in the portfolio (i = 1, n ̅̅ ̅̅ ), i.e. xi ≥ 0, ∑ xi = 1, n i=1 where n is the quantity of stocks. The value of the portfolio Pj(X) at the time moment j is equal to the sum of the product of the price of the i – th stock and its share in the portfolio: Pj(X) = ∑ cijxi, n i=1 () where cij is the price of the i-th stock on the j-th day (j = 1, T ̅̅ ̅̅ ), T is the considered time horizon. The yield of the securities portfolio Vj(X) is c","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83148241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intelligent System for Designing the Optimal Сompetence Model of a University Graduate","authors":"S. Makarova, V. Martynov, A. Zaytseva","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.35","url":null,"abstract":"In article the problem of training the qualified specialists on the basis of competence-based approach to training in the directions of the higher education is considered. Competence-based approach to training is the main aspect in the field of the higher education and is the fundamental principle of federal state educational standards (FSES), approximate educational programs and the training materials development. Within the accepted FSES 3++ the formation of competencies on design of the main educational programs in the higher education on the basis of professional standards is declared, however the labor functions described in professional standards often demand addition and adjustment for needs of the specific employer [1]. The algorithm of forming the educational results in the form of competence-based model of the graduate taking into account requirements and additions of the employer which is a basis of an intellectual system of design of optimum competence-based model of the university graduate is presented in article. Questioning can be used for requirements of the employer definition (specification). In the process of the results of questioning analysis requirements of the employer are detected, formulated in the format «knowledge», «ability», «possession» and subsequently constitute the newly introduced professional competency (profile), one or several. The passport of competency is developed. Further the discipline (or the module) is defined in the process of studying which is achieved the formation of this competency, the matrix of competencies is formed. By drawing up a matrix it is necessary to consider levels (private weight) of competencies formation. On the basis of the matrix of competencies, a curriculum is formed that satisfies the requirements of optimality, i.e. allows to get the levels of competency development specified by the employer within the limits of academic load. Keywords—competence, education, educational result, educational program.","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88613771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DSS for Oil Price Prediction Using Machine Learning","authors":"Guzel Khuziakhmetova, V. Martynov, K. Heinrich","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.17","url":null,"abstract":"The oil price affects the economic situation of many countries in the world, therefore, there is always an increased interest. A number of efforts have been made by researchers towards developing efficient methods for forecasting oil prices. In this paper, three types of models for forecasting oil prices were created: Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The root mean square error and standard error were chosen to estimate the constructed models by quantitative characteristics. For visual analysis the graphs depicting the actual and forecast values were plotted. According to the interpretation of the results to the evaluation criteria of the models, when using the price of Brent oil as input data, the SVM has the best predictive ability. This makes it a good tool for forecasting dynamically changing data of large volumes. Also a model of the decision support system (DSS) architecture, a forecasting subsystem and a forecasting module are designed to show how the results of the study can be used in the work of commodity market traders. Keywords—oil prices, time series, prediction, neural network, support vector machine, machine learning, energy resources, deep learning","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90923652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing the Reliability of Numerical Data Using Several Methods Under Conditions of Indeterminacy","authors":"V. Zhitnikov, N. Sherykhalina, R. Muksimova, N. Zhitnikova","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.12","url":null,"abstract":"In order to increase data reliability, between two and four methods may be used to solve the same problem, with the results being compared. An estimation of the error in every method must be found. The paper offers a mathematical model for the unobservable component of the error, which may be caused by various factors (for example, software implementation). This gives a numerical characteristic of certainty. The main assumption is that the errors from the different methods may be considered as independent random quantities. Moreover, the probability density of the error has a single maximum at zero. In connection with the indeterminacy of the probability densities, the worst case distribution functions (leading to maximum error probability) must be found. An estimate is obtained of the probability of the existence of an error greater than some given value, under the condition that the results coincide up to the accuracy of the computations. Keywords—programmer mistake, undetermined error, computer methods, indeterminacy intervals comparison","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89318041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Agent-Based Modeling Method For The Study Of Unique Mechanical Systems","authors":"O. Nikolaychuk, A. Pavlov, A. Stolbov","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.36","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the MDD related agentbased modeling method that provides a four-level representation of the model elements throughout the design process. In the proposed method it is suggested to separate the description of the agent-based simulation model (ABSM) structure and behavior into domain independent and domainspecific parts. It means that there are no predefined structures of ABSM and the experts with appropriate knowledge and skills for some specific problem areas can create them. The application of the proposed method for contingency management in critical infrastructures is shown on the illustrative example that describes ABSM development process for solving problems of the unique mechanical systems states identification and forecasting. Keywords—Agent-Based Modeling, Model-Driven Development, Knowledge-Based System","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75647668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}