科学决策最新文献

{"title":"Models and Methods of Optimal Information Operations Use for System Functioning","authors":"A. Geyda","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.3","url":null,"abstract":"The article outlines models of system functioning and methods to use these models for solving problems of optimal information operations use for systems functioning. Models provide means for estimation of information operation effects and as a result, the operational properties of systems and their functioning with regard to information operations fulfilled. Such systems’ functioning is changed due to information operations. Examples of operational properties are efficiency, the effectiveness of system functioning, system capabilities and system potential. Operational properties are estimated based on functioning effects. Such effects of information operations are manifested through a system functioning under the conditions of a changing environment. An estimation of effects and operational properties is fulfilled analytically. This makes it possible to solve appropriate practical problems of optimal information operations usage as mathematical problems. It is made through plotting the dependences of the predicted values of effects and operational properties of information operations and corresponding IT usage against the variables and options of problems solved. To develop this type of model, the use of information operations during system functioning is analyzed through an example of a technological system. An exemplary modeling of the effects of technological information and the related technological noninformation operations of technological systems operation is provided. Based on concept models of information operations of technological systems, functioning set-theoretical models followed by functional models are introduced. An example of operational properties indicators estimation is considered. It is based on Architecture of Integrated Information Systems (ARIS) diagramming tools’ usage. Use cases of such indicators include choosing optimal information operations characteristics. Keywords— information operation, information technologies, optimization, modeling, efficiency, indicators, models, methods","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89796797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data Filtration and Clustering for Purposes of Petroleum Quality Indicators Computation Using Situational Models","authors":"A. Verevkin, T. Murtazin, S. Denisov, Konstantin Y. Ustyuzhanin","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.10","url":null,"abstract":"Generally, advanced process control systems (APC-systems) base on using technological process models tolerating output quality indicators (OQI) and technical and economic indexes (TEI) forecasting “on the fly”. There are many techniques of OQI and TEI evaluation in existence, except one used to work with static information (for example, results of passive experiments) for parametric identification. In addition, control systems store operating parameter’s data in its database in a shape of time sequences without any validation or testing for homogeneity. Inhomogeneity of the data drops model quality to the state, when data makes it impossible to develop a situational model without pre-processing and cluster separation, according to which one creates the situational model. This article considers filtration and clustering techniques of APC historical data, including information about technological mode and used OQIs. Described filtering and clustering solutions based on parity models and technological measures cross-correlation techniques; their implication presented on the example of multioutput fractionating tower. Keywords—advanced control, homogeneous data situational modeling, clustering, data analysis","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89310452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation of Watercourse Direction on Underlying Surface of Slope Lands","authors":"S. Vasilyev","doi":"10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ITIDS-19.2019.8","url":null,"abstract":"The author of the article considers that the water flow direction changes depending on the rate of the flow moving on the studied surface. The technology for simulating a watercourse direction on the underlying surface using the source method was developed. According to the results of the processed data the CobbDouglas-type nonlinear multiplicative function with the highest determination coefficient of 0,721 appeared to be the most accurate one for describing the erosion process. The analysis of the dependence obtained shows that with the water flow rate change by an average 1 %, the deflection angle of the water flow direction increases by an average 4,24% and the deflection angle of the water flow increases by an average 1,32% with the water rate increase by 1%. Keywords—simulation, watercourse, surface, lands","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"410 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85857992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mathematical Model and General Trends for Information Dissemination in Social Systems","authors":"I. Azhmukhamedov, D. Machueva, F. Tebueva","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.53","url":null,"abstract":"Information exchange is one of the essential processes in any social system. Contemporary channels of social communication and, primarily, the global information space (the Internet) and its social media are actively used to organize a range of activities which have an information and psychological impact on individual personality, social groups, and society as a whole. A well-known negative aspect of this practice is propaganda of extremist ideologies, terrorism, and other kinds of illegal activities. It is necessary to understand the nature of the information dissemination process in order to plan and carry out actions related to information management, as well as to identify and counteract destructive actions. This paper aims to develop a technique and model which would make it possible to study the patterns of information interaction in social systems. The paper presents a mathematical model for the information interaction process based on the theory of cellular automata and fuzzy cognitive modeling that makes it possible to formalize and consider the subjective qualities of communicators, the evaluation of which is given verbally. Taking into account the specifics of largescale social systems and the complexity of obtaining and processing initial data for modeling them, a supplement to the model was suggested using representative sample data and statistical parameter distribution. Numerical experiments were performed to determine analytical dependencies between the parameters of the social system (connectivity, sensibility, sociability) and the dynamics of changes in opinions of agents in relation to the disseminated information.","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83100585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intelligent Method of the Automated Design of Technological Processes of Machining","authors":"A. Lutov, Y. Ryabov, Rinat Shaydullin","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.13","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents an intelligent method of computer-aided design of technological processes of mechanical processing, based on the principles of an intelligent approach to information processing and the use of knowledge systems in solving technological design problems. A unified approach to the design of technological processes is proposed, implemented through a graph model representing the relationships between data. When developing operations, structural synthesis is used based on successive chains of knowledge of transitions. For this purpose, knowledge elements have been created and are described in the XSD language. Elements of knowledge of technological transitions determine the technological actions associated with the processing of the elementary surfaces of the part. The practical implementation of chains of executive transitions is proposed to be implemented using functional programming. To implement the digital transformation of the technological preparation of mechanical processing using the intelligent approach, a method of forming a prototype of the technological process was developed. Keywords—Intelligent method, graph model, technological process, knowledge element, functional design, functional programming, synthesis, XSD language.","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84448195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing Risk Assessment Model for Altering Conditions of Forest Reserves in an Oil-Production Region","authors":"A. Yakimchuk, A. Melnikov, V. Burlutskiy, Alexander Tsaregorodtsev","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.46","url":null,"abstract":"The scientific problem, the solution of which is aimed at this work, is the implementation of a systematic method of assessing and predicting the influence of anthropogenic impact on the natural environment of the oilproducing region. The significance of the research is confirmed by the absence of developed and enacted criteria for determining risks and finding techniques of their assessment, especially those which consider the specificity of the oil-producing region. A special feature of the proposed approach is the use of hybrid methods of machine learning in conjugation with the spatial information analysis on the basis of the history of incidents occurred in the forest reserves of the region. Some statistical estimates of the influence of the assessed factors of risk formation on an emergence probability of an incident have been obtained. Within the framework of this study, a vectorbased description of signs of incidents was formulated and validated followed by a forecast based on methods of machine learning. Developed models have a wide range of application and may become a framework for creating assessments of risk factors of human-caused impacts on the natural environment, including oil spills, illegal forest felling, unauthorized dumps of household and construction waste, etc. Achievement of the established goal will allow to rank risks in the forest reserves of the region, develop a model for the assessment of these risks, visualize by means of geo-information technologies for monitoring loads imposed by planned inspections by controland-supervision authorities on the region’s enterprises, as well increase the efficiency of the detection of violations. Keywords–data analysis, machine learning, neural networks, spatial analysis, geographic information systems, risk-based approach","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78749028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Model of Controlling the Behavior of an Economic Agent Using the Mechanism of Self-Regulation of Resource Flows","authors":"B. Ilyasov, E. Makarova, E. Zakieva, E. Gabdullina","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.43","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of development of the analytical system of simulation modeling (ASSM) of functioning processes of the economic system investigated at the macro level is considered. The structure of the complex of dynamic models of economic agents, which are considered at the macro level and presented in the form of firms, households (population), banks and the state, is presented. The concept of dynamic nonequilibrium mode of functioning of the macroeconomic system (MES) is introduced. The system principles for constructing dynamic models of behavior of macroeconomic agents (MEA) are stated. The dynamic model of the controlled behavior of the MEA which is analyzed from the standpoint of various approaches that demands performance of a number of transformations of the scheme of dynamic model is presented. The three variants of interpretation of the scheme of the dynamic model of the MEA behavior (from the standpoint of economic theory, control theory and systems theory) allowed to reveal the regularities of the MEA behavior in non-equilibrium modes. It is shown that non-equilibrium modes arising in the behavior of one agent extend to other agents. The proposed algorithm provides the restoration of the dynamic equilibrium mode of the whole MES. The application of controlled dynamic models of the MEA and the developed ASSM is advisable as a research system for the purpose of analyzing different management scenarios of the functioning process of the MES as a whole. Keywords—dynamic model, economic agents, reserves of resources, self-regulation mechanism, system approach, management","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"06 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85975336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Algorithm of Sequential Improving the Size Coefficient for Solving the Problem of Partitioning the Multiple Connected Orthogonal Polygon","authors":"A. Filippova, Yuliya Valiahmetova, Emil Tukhvatullin, Elina Dyaminova","doi":"10.2991/itids-19.2019.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2991/itids-19.2019.24","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of geometrical partitioning the multiple connected orthogonal polygon is considered in the given paper. The problem refers to the NP-hard class of problems because it is necessary to fulfill exhaustive search for assured finding the optimal solution. It stipulates the interest for developing efficient heuristic methods for solving the above problem. Some multiply-connected orthogonal polygon is supposed to be parted into a set of rectangles avoiding their intersecting and their crossing the polygon borders. The goal function represents certain minimization of summarized length of boundary junctions in the process of partitioning. The mathematical model of the problem is offered. The algorithm based on improving the size coefficient, characterizing the degree of rectangle elongation, has been developed. The algorithm consists of two procedures applied sequentially: the first one is for generating the primary polygon partitioning, and the second is for primary partitioning transformation taking into account the adjacent elements and the compound adjacent elements. The computing experiment has been carried out and the results are shown. Keywords—problem of geometrical partitioning, multiple connected orthogonal polygon, size coefficient, primary partition, composite united, minimization of joints length partition. I. PREFACE The partition problems refer to the class of discrete optimization problems. Actually, there are many problems based on the similar models, for example, scheduling cuttingpacking problems, nesting and many others. The solving of such problems is aimed at resource saving. The problems of orthogonal packing into a quadrant [7,8], on sheets [8,10] and into a semi-endless strip [9,14,15,17] are of special importance. No less important is determining of the lower and upper boundaries in cutting-packing problems [8]. Besides, there are classes of regular and non-regular packing problems [11]. All the above mentioned problems are considered for 2D and 3D space [12, 13, 16]. The researchers in this field have been developing new approaches to solving different specific problems that arise in practice. The partitioning problems have been known and are being researched to present day [1, 2]. In these problems it is required to divide some object into parts to reach definite aim. The partitioning problems are considered to be problems of rational use of resources, therefore the solving of the above problems results in real economic effect for business. The efficient solution to such problems is urgent from both theoretical and practical points of view. The partitioning problem can be considered as a separate problem as well as a sub-problem of some technological process [3, 4]. Technological processes in different applied branches of industry are known to use the stage of cutting or the stage of element placement taking into account their geometrical properties [3]. The process is very important for resource saving but it is di","PeriodicalId":63242,"journal":{"name":"科学决策","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77593469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}