安全科学与韧性(英文)最新文献

{"title":"Spatio-temporal prediction of terrorist attacks based on GCN-LSTM","authors":"Yingjie Du ,&nbsp;Ning Ding ,&nbsp;Hongyu Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Terrorist attacks represent a significant threat to national order, social stability, and economic security. Accurate prediction of such attacks is a critical task for casualty reduction, enhanced decision-making, and optimal resource distribution in counter-terrorism efforts. This paper introduces an innovative spatio-temporal fusion framework that combines graph convolutional network (GCN) with long short-term memory (LSTM) models. By capturing and merging spatio-temporal features from relevant events, the proposed GCN-LSTM model achieves remarkable accuracy in predicting terrorist attacks. The experimental results demonstrate outstanding performance, with the model attaining minimal RMSE and MAE values of 0.037 and 0.031, respectively, surpassing all baseline models (LSTM, GCN, and CNN-LSTM-Transformer). Through its effective interpretation of complex spatio-temporal patterns underlying terrorist attacks, our model substantially enhances the predictive accuracy across diverse time horizons. These findings carry crucial implications for enhancing counter-terrorism strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 186-195"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143821369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the underground space safety resilience of Chinese urban agglomerations based on the “Pressure-State-Response”: A case study of underground rail transit in 26 cities","authors":"Chong Li,&nbsp;Yibao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban underground space disasters exhibit characteristics including complex causal mechanisms and high risk. They also present unpredictability and risk coupling amplification. Differences in underground space safety resilience (USSR) and key pathways of urban agglomerations are issues that remain under-discussed. This study is based on the perspective of resilience genesis, and it constructs a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) analysis framework. This study employs methods such as the composite index method, Dagum Gini coefficient, and fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to explore the differences in safety resilience levels and key pathways of underground spaces of urban agglomerations. The study offered several findings: (1) The safety resilience index rankings of the five major urban agglomerations, from highest to lowest, are as follows: Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, Triangle of Central China and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. In addition, the underground space safety resilience systems of cities were clustered and categorized into demonstration and leadership type, striving catch-up type, and stable development type. (2) Overall differences between urban agglomerations are reflected in the differences between individual urban agglomerations. The internal development imbalance is the primary reason for the more significant differences in and between the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations. (3) High-level safety resilience of urban underground space is the result of a multi-factor combination in the PSR framework. In addition, there are four high-level safety resilience configuration paths, and these paths are categorized into three modes: \"state-driven response\", \"pressure-triggered response\", and \"autonomous response\". Policy implications and countermeasures for urban underground space development are proposed for each mode of urban underground space safety resilience. These proposals offer theoretical references for optimizing the safety resilience of underground spaces of urban agglomerations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100200"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"JMoE-FAP: A novel model for telecom network fraud victimization pattern analysis","authors":"Tuo Shi ,&nbsp;Jing Hu ,&nbsp;Danyang Li ,&nbsp;Min Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A comprehensive examination of the victimization process, coupled with the development of effective preventive strategies, represents the most promising approach for mitigating telecom network fraud. However, the limited availability of telecom fraud case text data hinders the advancement of robust data extraction algorithms, thereby complicating the identification of victimization patterns. To address this gap, this study proposes a victimization process analysis model that leverages mixed expert event joint extraction, utilizing real telecom fraud case data. The model integrates LERT-MoE to extract trigger words and arguments related to the victimization process from law enforcement reports, followed by the application of a dot-product attention mechanism for argument role classification. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first attempt to apply a mixture-of-experts model with a purpose-built dot-product attention mechanism for the in-depth analysis of telecom network fraud victimization patterns, overcoming the limitations of previous methods in managing the complexity and diversity of fraudulent behaviors. Additionally, the Apriori method is employed to uncover prevalent behavioral patterns in the victimization process. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms baseline models in precision, accuracy, and F1-score for event extraction tasks in telecom fraud instances. Furthermore, the model identifies more granular fraud patterns within the victimization process, offering a valuable knowledge base for the development of targeted preventive strategies. The identified patterns can be used to design focused awareness campaigns, enhance fraud detection algorithms, and improve law enforcement training, thereby significantly increasing the effectiveness of anti-fraud initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100199"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of the cognitive performance of nuclear power plant operators using heart rate variability under hot-humid exposure","authors":"Lingzhong Du ,&nbsp;Ming Jia ,&nbsp;Tao Chen ,&nbsp;Yan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yicheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhihui Xu ,&nbsp;Yanchao Su ,&nbsp;Xiangbiao Xing ,&nbsp;Tingdong Chen ,&nbsp;Cheng Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When sudden disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis culminate in the outage of control systems in nuclear power plants, the operators may be exposed to extremely hot-humid environmental conditions while still facing demanding cognitive tasks. To investigate how their cognitive performance is related to their heart rate variability (HRV), we exposed nuclear power plant operators to four high temperature and humidity environments and measured their HRV during seven different cognitive tasks for 30 min. Generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) are used to analyze the relationship between HRV and operators' cognitive performance. Studies have shown that all indicators of HRV have a significant impact on the cognitive ability of operators. In both the low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF), especially in the very low frequency (VLF) domain, HRV significantly correlates with the operator's cognition. Although the cognitive performance aggravates slightly within 30 min, increasing the humidity under fixed high temperatures does not exhibit an overall effect on cognitive performance. Henceforth, this study provides a guidance for safety limits of the operator's working duration. Moreover, VLF, LF, and HF domains might be potential physiological indicators to monitor the cognitive ability of operators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100197"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An improved multi-velocity cellular automaton model that considers psychological impatience","authors":"Hongpeng Qiu ,&nbsp;Wenke Zhang ,&nbsp;Meng Shi ,&nbsp;Eric Wai Ming Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The cellular automaton (CA) model is an essential tool for studying pedestrian evacuation dynamics; moreover, improving simulations of actual evacuation environments and increasing the reliability of evacuation data are important problems for researchers. The complex psychological dynamics of pedestrians during evacuation and the evacuation velocities are essential components of such models. This study proposes and verifies a synchronously updated multi-velocity evacuation impatient CA model with a corresponding time correction formula. Our model that considers pedestrians’ psychological impatience can simulate complex scenarios in which different pedestrians simultaneously evacuate at different speeds. In addition, our model accurately simulates and reproduces the phenomena found in actual experiments: as the self-growth parameter of impatience increases, the evacuation efficiency first increases and then decreases, and as the contagion parameter of impatience increases, the evacuation efficiency decreases. The time correction method and formula are critical for obtaining reliable results from simulations in which pedestrians evacuate at various speeds, and they are expected to be indispensable parts of multi-velocity CA models for predicting complex evacuation scenes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100196"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resilience in Cyber-Physical Infrastructures: R-KPI prioritization, framework development, and case study insights","authors":"Ali Aghazadeh Ardebili ,&nbsp;Marco Boscolo ,&nbsp;Antonella Longo ,&nbsp;Mahdad Pourmadadkar ,&nbsp;Antonio Ficarella ,&nbsp;Elio Padoano","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critical infrastructures (CIs) embody cyber-physical-social systems (CPSSs) where physical entities are integrated with cyber components, shaping service delivery through end-user behavior. The seamless operation of CIs is vital for society, and the CPSS resilience relies on interdependencies with AI-integrated technologies. The complexity of the system, and the interconnections with other infrastructures, along with the socio-technical transition towards digitization raised the necessity of implementing Resilience Engineering. This motivates exploration of the scientific literature on resilience key performance indicators (R-KPIs) which support strategies for ensuring service continuity. Therefore, this article aims to identify R-KPIs for AI-integrated CIs and prioritize the extracted R-KPIs using a hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. The results show the importance of employing R-KPIs that measure risk probability, energy self-sufficiency level of the system under study, and performance indicators including functionality loss, recovery time, and minimum performance level after disturbance as the most effective R-KPIs in the domain of this study. After identifying and prioritizing the R-KPIs, a general framework is proposed to employ these R-KPIs in modeling the resilience of a CPS. Finally, a case study demonstrates the implementation of the framework and KPIs in a real-life scenario.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100194"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A method of characterizing the impact of traffic load on metro system from the control centrality","authors":"Nuo Yong ,&nbsp;Shunjiang Ni ,&nbsp;Shifei Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the challenges of controlling complex metro systems, which are influenced by uncertain and uncontrollable large passenger flow impacts. Traditionally, flow-limiting measures during peak periods have been based on experience rather than scientific theory. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel network analysis method inspired by control centrality theory. This approach assesses the impact of traffic loads from single or multiple sources on any node within the metro network. Our method provides a scientific basis for operators to develop policies for managing overloaded traffic, enhancing both safety and efficiency in metro system operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100192"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144522276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Facility service balance problem with information feedback mechanism in the virtual–real interaction network","authors":"Lu Chen ,&nbsp;Jianming Zhu ,&nbsp;Guoqing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Considering the information interaction in the virtual–real network, this paper introduces a novel three-layer model that explores the integrated influence between virtual and real networks. Existing models often fail to capture the dynamic feedback between these networks and do not effectively simulate integrated decision-making processes. Focusing on the Facility Service Balance Problem, we aim to optimize resource allocation and information diffusion in response to real-world events like natural disasters or large-scale activities. Based on the Linear Threshold model, the Feedback Linear Threshold model, which incorporates feedback mechanisms between virtual and real networks and integrates both original and feedback information in the activation function of nodes, has been proposed to better simulate the information feedback and integrated decision-making process. Then, combined with location-based interpersonal and online social networks, a comprehensive framework that models decision-making processes without direct influence between decision-makers has been provided, focusing on the decision-making of individuals influenced by cumulative information, ultimately maximizing the facility service efficiency. Finally, conduct experiments have been conducted, using two types of data to test the general effectiveness of the feedback mechanism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100191"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144306988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental study on enhancing the foam spray range of compressed air foam nozzle","authors":"Fengju Shang ,&nbsp;Jiaqing Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Liu ,&nbsp;Yi Guo ,&nbsp;Yunpeng Yang ,&nbsp;Lilong Nie ,&nbsp;Kaiyuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the core equipment in power systems, ultra-high voltage (UHV) transformers pose a high fire risk. The compressed-air foam spray nozzle is a novel end-release device that, due to its high efficiency and excellent suppression effect on oil-based fires, has been increasingly applied in UHV substations. This study is based on a self-developed experimental platform for compressed-air foam firefighting systems. To meet practical engineering needs, the longitudinal maximum of the contour line at the threshold of 12 L/(min·m²) was selected as the spray range. The study systematically explored the factors influencing the spray range of the spray nozzle. Experimental results revealed that when the hole elevation angle was 60°, the average spray range increased by 59 % compared to 0°. When the nozzle aperture was 10 mm and the outlet pressure was 0.15 MPa, the spray range improved by 17 %. Additionally, as the outlet pressure increased, the foam spray range grew significantly, with a 35.2 % increase at 0.3 MPa compared to 0.1 MPa, indicating that the outlet pressure had a substantial effect on the spray range. To predict the spray range increase, an empirical model is developed for the outlet pressure versus the spray range. After analyzing the above three influencing factors, all the data of various working conditions were integrated into a single dataset, a prediction model of the spray range was established, and the importance of the factors affecting the range was ranked. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for the optimized design and engineering application of compressed-air foam systems (CAFSs).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100193"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical study on flashover in aircraft cargo under varying pressure and ventilation conditions","authors":"Xuhong Jia ,&nbsp;Shupei Tang ,&nbsp;Quanyi Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A numerical simulation study was conducted to analyze flashover in a full-scale aircraft cargo compartment, utilizing FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) and PyroSim (visual modeling) software. The study aims to: (i) examine how varying heat release rates (HRR), pressures, and vent sizes influence the hot gas layer temperature during flashover in confined spaces, and (ii) establish a semi-empirical model to predict flashover. Experimental results indicate that when the vent size is 1.86 m × 1.06 m and the pressure is 101 kPa, the minimum hot gas layer temperature required to trigger flashover is approximately 410 °C. When the pressure is reduced to 80 kPa and 60 kPa, the critical temperature increases to approximately 436 °C and 460 °C, respectively. These findings provide critical temperature benchmarks for predicting flashover in aircraft cargo fires. Furthermore, a semi-empirical engineering calculation model was developed to predict the hot gas layer temperature under various conditions during flashover. Validation against experimental data from the literature demonstrated good agreement (deviation of ≈20 %), confirming the model's applicability in diverse scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100195"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}