安全科学与韧性(英文)最新文献_第10页

Notions of resilience and qualitative evaluation of tsunami resiliency using the theory of springs 复原力的概念和利用弹簧理论对海啸复原力的定性评估

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.002

Dinil Pushpalal , Peter John Wanner , Keunyoung Pak

{"title":"Notions of resilience and qualitative evaluation of tsunami resiliency using the theory of springs","authors":"Dinil Pushpalal , Peter John Wanner , Keunyoung Pak","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study revisits the concept of resilience by critically reviewing the contents of previous literature. Furthermore, it explains a new methodology for measuring resilience based on the theory of springs and qualitatively appraises the resiliency of Minamisanriku town as a case study. Minamisanriku is a tiny coastal town located in the northeastern part of the Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. The town was affected by an earthquake on March 11, 2011, with a magnitude of 9.0, followed by a tsunami. According to the authors’ previously proposed conceptual framework, resilience should be considered by dividing it into three components: onsite capacity, instantaneous survivability, and the recovery potentiality of an area. Each component of the framework depends on two or three factors that can be measured using different indicators and sub-indicators. Onsite capacity is the ability of a given place to withstand a tsunami before it arrives, and it has been considered indispensable for the prevention of a tsunami. Instantaneous survivability is the power to be alive at the point of a disaster climax. Returning speed to its normal daily routines once a catastrophe is over is called recovery potentiality. It is understood that strengthening onsite capacity by moving residences to higher ground, building seawalls and paved roads, relocation of fishing industry infrastructure, and land elevation in Minamisanriku town makes it a benchmark for resilient cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"4 1","pages":"Pages 1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42391980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Study on single-group dynamics in evacuation considering pre-defined and undeclared leadership 考虑预定义和未声明领导的疏散中的单组动力学研究

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.007

Wei Xie , Dongli Gao , Ruifeng Cao , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Richard Kwok Kit Yuen , Jingwen Weng

{"title":"Study on single-group dynamics in evacuation considering pre-defined and undeclared leadership","authors":"Wei Xie , Dongli Gao , Ruifeng Cao , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Richard Kwok Kit Yuen , Jingwen Weng","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Grouping is a common phenomenon that occurs everywhere. The leader-follower relationship inside groups has often been qualitatively characterized in previous models using simple heuristics. However, a general method is lacking to quantitatively explain leadership in an evacuating group. To understand the evolution of single-group dynamics throughout an evacuation, we developed an extended social force model integrated with a group force. A series of single-group evacuations from a room were simulated. An information-theoretic method, transfer entropy (TE), was applied to detect predefined and undeclared leadership among evacuees. The results showed that the predefined leader was correctly detected by TE, suggesting its capability in measuring leadership based on time series of evacuees’ movement information (e.g., velocity and acceleration). When evacuees were grouped together, TE was higher than when they were alone. Leaders presented a monotonically increasing cumulative influence curve over the investigated period, whereas followers showed a diminishing tendency. We found that leadership emergence correlated with evacuees’ spatial positions. The individual located in the foremost part of the group was most likely to become a leader of those in the rear, which concurred with the experimental observations. We observed how a large group split into smaller ones with undeclared leadership during evacuation. These observations were quantitatively verified by TE results. This study provides novel insights into quantifying leadership and understanding single-group dynamics during evacuations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"4 1","pages":"Pages 52-60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48267572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The prediction of exit choice using cumulative prospect value 利用累积前景值预测退出选择

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.003

Dongli Gao , Wei Xie , Ruifeng Cao , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Richard Kwok Kit Yuen , Jingwen Weng

引用次数: 1

Development of an agent-based indoor evacuation model for local fire risks analysis 基于agent的室内疏散局部火灾风险分析模型的建立

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.006

Rui Feng Cao , Eric Wai Ming Lee , Wei Xie , Dong Li Gao , Qian Chen , Anthony Chun Yin Yuen , Guan Heng Yeoh , Richard-Kwok-Kit Yuen

引用次数: 2

Volunteer rescue dispatch during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 epidemic: Using the recruitment of volunteers for pneumonia epidemic prevention and control in Chun'an County as an example 2019冠状病毒病疫情期间的志愿救援调度——以淳安县肺炎疫情防控志愿者招募为例

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.001

Liting Chen , Shengqun Chen , Jing Zheng , Jianqing Gao

{"title":"Volunteer rescue dispatch during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 epidemic: Using the recruitment of volunteers for pneumonia epidemic prevention and control in Chun'an County as an example","authors":"Liting Chen , Shengqun Chen , Jing Zheng , Jianqing Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To solve the problem of volunteer dispatch during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, a many-to-many two-sided matching volunteer dispatch method based on an improved predator-search algorithm is proposed. First, different evaluation index sets for volunteers and rescue tasks were developed, and weightings were determined using the analytic hierarchy process. Subsequently, the actual and expected values of the different indicators of the two parties were determined, and the triangular fuzzy number was used to calculate the satisfaction of the two parties. Based on this number, we used a linear weighting method to calculate the combined satisfaction and build a many-to-many two-sided matching model according to the demands of both parties. Subsequently, an improved predator-search algorithm was used to solve the model. Finally, taking the recruitment of volunteers for pneumonia epidemic prevention and control in Chun'an County as an example, the method proposed in our study was verified. A comparison and analysis of the results further demonstrated the feasibility and advantages of this method.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 330-339"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000433/pdfft?md5=3edc47dc3aa572fa188ec6507e77aad8&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000433-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48172895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Preventive and control system for the life cycle of a pandemic 大流行生命周期的预防和控制系统

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002

Chenyang Wang, Rui Ba, Ranpeng Wang, Hui Zhang

{"title":"Preventive and control system for the life cycle of a pandemic","authors":"Chenyang Wang, Rui Ba, Ranpeng Wang, Hui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Herein, a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented, aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies. The classical diffusion dynamic models of the epidemic spread are compared. Furthermore, the Bass diffusion model is selected to study more characteristics of an epidemic, such as the diversities in regional internal and external infection rates. Thereafter, the classical division method vis-à-vis a pandemic life cycle is improved. A specific approach is proposed to portray more detailed characteristics of the pandemic by dividing it into more phases. Next, a four-level epidemic prevention and control measure system is concretized. The applicable phases and strategic effectiveness of each measure are integrated into the different phases of the pandemic life cycle. Finally, the matching method is applied to analyze two cases of the spread of the outbreak in cities and significant events. The findings provide a certain reference for the effectiveness of the matching method in the post-peak epidemic period.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 321-329"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000330/pdfft?md5=650f179e68f393c18e2083eaff2059fa&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000330-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46418146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rethinking the urban resilience: Extension and connotation 重新思考城市韧性:外延与内涵

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.004

Rui Ba , Chenyang Wang , Luyao Kou , Xiaojing Guo , Hui Zhang

{"title":"Rethinking the urban resilience: Extension and connotation","authors":"Rui Ba , Chenyang Wang , Luyao Kou , Xiaojing Guo , Hui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, urban resilience has attracted increasing attention from researchers and managers from the international community at the national, regional, and urban levels. Numerous multi-dimensional and cross-disciplinary investigations, campaigns, and outlines have significantly promoted the development goal of resilience in cities worldwide. However, the existing definitions and interpretations of urban resilience still call for a more comprehensive, systematic, and exhaustive analysis as urbanization accelerates and the complex risks of various safety events increase. To this end, we rethink the extension and connotation of urban resilience based on a review and analysis of critical hotspots, realistic demand, and development trends. A conceptual classification with three aspects and three typical tiers of urban resilience is proposed, which further promotes a new definition and interpretation by incorporating the resilience extension of urban systems. In addition, the six-dimensional characteristics are extracted to furnish the urban resilience connotation, and four-stage improvement measures are introduced accordingly. In addition, the newly developed urban resilience is applied to a case analysis of a large-scale disaster, which demonstrates the necessity and significance of this study. The new extension and connotation investigation will be helpful for the improvement and implementation of urban resilience, thereby guiding the construction of resilient cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 398-403"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000470/pdfft?md5=ba852ad6452fac7380e53e172f493713&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000470-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49402490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Seismic fragility assessment of load‐bearing soft‐brick unreinforced masonry piers 承重软砖无加固砌体桥墩的地震易损性评价

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.05.001

Jayaprakash Vemuri , Tariq Anwar , KVL Subramaniam

{"title":"Seismic fragility assessment of load‐bearing soft‐brick unreinforced masonry piers","authors":"Jayaprakash Vemuri , Tariq Anwar , KVL Subramaniam","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Unreinforced masonry (URM) made with soft bricks comprises a large percentage of the building stock in developing countries. However, the poor performance of URM piers during earthquakes has led to renewed interest in understanding their behavior under lateral loads. Little experimental data is available on the seismic response, analysis, and design of URMs made of soft bricks. In this study, the micro-modeling technique is used to simulate the in-plane behavior of load-bearing, soft-brick URM piers. The parameters required in the constitutive models are obtained from material tests and used to develop a calibrated numerical model of the URM piers. Piers with various aspect ratios subjected to various axial stresses are numerically modeled to obtain monotonic and cyclic responses, and their critical displacement limit states are identified. Changes in the failure modes of masonry piers with variations in the aspect ratio and axial stress are established. Load-bearing piers exhibit three distinct failure modes: bed sliding, diagonal shear cracking, and flexure, depending on the aspect ratio and axial stress. The seismic fragility of each pier failure type is examined using nonlinear time history analyses. The results show that bed-sliding piers collapse at extremely low PGA levels. Piers failing through diagonal shear cracking also fail at low PGA levels. Flexural piers can resist seismic forces up to a slightly higher PGA level and thus are the last to collapse. The results also indicate that the effect of uncertainty in ground motions is more significant than the effect of variability in the masonry pier capacities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 277-287"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000317/pdfft?md5=b47b5a2d29761c404fda8d87fb891bb9&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000317-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43144273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A hybrid framework to analyze crisis management system maturity in sociotechnical systems 分析社会技术系统中危机管理系统成熟度的混合框架

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.003

Kamran Gholamizadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Saman Poursiahbidi , Omid Kalatpour

{"title":"A hybrid framework to analyze crisis management system maturity in sociotechnical systems","authors":"Kamran Gholamizadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Saman Poursiahbidi , Omid Kalatpour","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent decades, numerous catastrophic accidents have occurred worldwide, ranging from natural events (such as tsunamis, flooding, and earthquakes) to industrial events (such as mining and chemical process disasters). They endanger humans, the environment, organizations, and societies, as well as national security. However, there have been few attempts to propose a model for assessing the required capabilities and potential challenges in crisis management system maturity (CMSM). Accordingly, this study proposes a framework for measuring CMSM levels in complex systems. To this end, a CMSM taxonomy was developed, including aspects, dimensions, and factors influencing the CMSM. Fuzzy inference sets and fuzzy analytical hierarchy processes are then used for knowledge acquisition, quantification of the CMSM, and dealing with epistemic uncertainty. An actual complex petrochemical plant is investigated to evaluate its capabilities. The findings revealed the most significant contributing factors: the CMSM’s current capability and challenges level (score), as well as the capacity to overcome the potential crisis response challenges. Moreover, the proposed model can be used as a practical approach for various chemical-processing plants.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 302-320"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000342/pdfft?md5=6d4ff6f86eec298d439c2c47bfefddec&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000342-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47305231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Optimizing Response Strategies of Healthcare System in a Large-scale Disaster 大规模灾害中医疗系统响应策略的优化

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.001

Fredy Tantri PhD , Sulfikar Amir PhD

{"title":"Optimizing Response Strategies of Healthcare System in a Large-scale Disaster","authors":"Fredy Tantri PhD , Sulfikar Amir PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban infrastructures are invariably constituted by social and technical components whose capacity to withstand crisis is determined by the resilience of their sociotechnical structures. This study aims to apply the principles of sociotechnical resilience in modeling and simulating disaster response in urban areas. Drawing on a case study of Jakarta, Indonesia, our study focuses on the role of hospitals as part of healthcare infrastructure in response to a large-scale disaster. Each hospital is modeled as a coordinated location with a certain amount of resources, primarily in terms of medical staff. We perform sensitivity analysis through Monte Carlo simulations to observe the impacts of various response strategies, disaster severity, and communication duration on system resilience. The results show that centralized systems are generally more suitable for dealing with low disaster severity, while the decentralized strategy performs better during a disaster with worse impacts. Additionally, the time taken for communication and coordination can significantly affect the performance of centralized systems. By simulating various scenarios, parameters, and recovery protocols, the model we developed can help policymakers, city planners, and other stakeholders design proper response strategies suitable to their structural conditions and available resources during a large-scale disaster in urban cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 288-301"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000329/pdfft?md5=31a6776695af8f5d786eb6164653fe6e&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000329-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137343875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0