安全科学与韧性(英文)最新文献_第9页

Preventive and control system for the life cycle of a pandemic 大流行生命周期的预防和控制系统

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002

Chenyang Wang, Rui Ba, Ranpeng Wang, Hui Zhang

{"title":"Preventive and control system for the life cycle of a pandemic","authors":"Chenyang Wang, Rui Ba, Ranpeng Wang, Hui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Herein, a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented, aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies. The classical diffusion dynamic models of the epidemic spread are compared. Furthermore, the Bass diffusion model is selected to study more characteristics of an epidemic, such as the diversities in regional internal and external infection rates. Thereafter, the classical division method vis-à-vis a pandemic life cycle is improved. A specific approach is proposed to portray more detailed characteristics of the pandemic by dividing it into more phases. Next, a four-level epidemic prevention and control measure system is concretized. The applicable phases and strategic effectiveness of each measure are integrated into the different phases of the pandemic life cycle. Finally, the matching method is applied to analyze two cases of the spread of the outbreak in cities and significant events. The findings provide a certain reference for the effectiveness of the matching method in the post-peak epidemic period.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 321-329"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000330/pdfft?md5=650f179e68f393c18e2083eaff2059fa&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000330-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46418146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rethinking the urban resilience: Extension and connotation 重新思考城市韧性:外延与内涵

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.004

Rui Ba , Chenyang Wang , Luyao Kou , Xiaojing Guo , Hui Zhang

{"title":"Rethinking the urban resilience: Extension and connotation","authors":"Rui Ba , Chenyang Wang , Luyao Kou , Xiaojing Guo , Hui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, urban resilience has attracted increasing attention from researchers and managers from the international community at the national, regional, and urban levels. Numerous multi-dimensional and cross-disciplinary investigations, campaigns, and outlines have significantly promoted the development goal of resilience in cities worldwide. However, the existing definitions and interpretations of urban resilience still call for a more comprehensive, systematic, and exhaustive analysis as urbanization accelerates and the complex risks of various safety events increase. To this end, we rethink the extension and connotation of urban resilience based on a review and analysis of critical hotspots, realistic demand, and development trends. A conceptual classification with three aspects and three typical tiers of urban resilience is proposed, which further promotes a new definition and interpretation by incorporating the resilience extension of urban systems. In addition, the six-dimensional characteristics are extracted to furnish the urban resilience connotation, and four-stage improvement measures are introduced accordingly. In addition, the newly developed urban resilience is applied to a case analysis of a large-scale disaster, which demonstrates the necessity and significance of this study. The new extension and connotation investigation will be helpful for the improvement and implementation of urban resilience, thereby guiding the construction of resilient cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 398-403"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000470/pdfft?md5=ba852ad6452fac7380e53e172f493713&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000470-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49402490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Seismic fragility assessment of load‐bearing soft‐brick unreinforced masonry piers 承重软砖无加固砌体桥墩的地震易损性评价

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.05.001

Jayaprakash Vemuri , Tariq Anwar , KVL Subramaniam

{"title":"Seismic fragility assessment of load‐bearing soft‐brick unreinforced masonry piers","authors":"Jayaprakash Vemuri , Tariq Anwar , KVL Subramaniam","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Unreinforced masonry (URM) made with soft bricks comprises a large percentage of the building stock in developing countries. However, the poor performance of URM piers during earthquakes has led to renewed interest in understanding their behavior under lateral loads. Little experimental data is available on the seismic response, analysis, and design of URMs made of soft bricks. In this study, the micro-modeling technique is used to simulate the in-plane behavior of load-bearing, soft-brick URM piers. The parameters required in the constitutive models are obtained from material tests and used to develop a calibrated numerical model of the URM piers. Piers with various aspect ratios subjected to various axial stresses are numerically modeled to obtain monotonic and cyclic responses, and their critical displacement limit states are identified. Changes in the failure modes of masonry piers with variations in the aspect ratio and axial stress are established. Load-bearing piers exhibit three distinct failure modes: bed sliding, diagonal shear cracking, and flexure, depending on the aspect ratio and axial stress. The seismic fragility of each pier failure type is examined using nonlinear time history analyses. The results show that bed-sliding piers collapse at extremely low PGA levels. Piers failing through diagonal shear cracking also fail at low PGA levels. Flexural piers can resist seismic forces up to a slightly higher PGA level and thus are the last to collapse. The results also indicate that the effect of uncertainty in ground motions is more significant than the effect of variability in the masonry pier capacities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 277-287"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000317/pdfft?md5=b47b5a2d29761c404fda8d87fb891bb9&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000317-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43144273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A hybrid framework to analyze crisis management system maturity in sociotechnical systems 分析社会技术系统中危机管理系统成熟度的混合框架

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.003

Kamran Gholamizadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Saman Poursiahbidi , Omid Kalatpour

{"title":"A hybrid framework to analyze crisis management system maturity in sociotechnical systems","authors":"Kamran Gholamizadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Saman Poursiahbidi , Omid Kalatpour","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent decades, numerous catastrophic accidents have occurred worldwide, ranging from natural events (such as tsunamis, flooding, and earthquakes) to industrial events (such as mining and chemical process disasters). They endanger humans, the environment, organizations, and societies, as well as national security. However, there have been few attempts to propose a model for assessing the required capabilities and potential challenges in crisis management system maturity (CMSM). Accordingly, this study proposes a framework for measuring CMSM levels in complex systems. To this end, a CMSM taxonomy was developed, including aspects, dimensions, and factors influencing the CMSM. Fuzzy inference sets and fuzzy analytical hierarchy processes are then used for knowledge acquisition, quantification of the CMSM, and dealing with epistemic uncertainty. An actual complex petrochemical plant is investigated to evaluate its capabilities. The findings revealed the most significant contributing factors: the CMSM’s current capability and challenges level (score), as well as the capacity to overcome the potential crisis response challenges. Moreover, the proposed model can be used as a practical approach for various chemical-processing plants.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 302-320"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000342/pdfft?md5=6d4ff6f86eec298d439c2c47bfefddec&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000342-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47305231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Optimizing Response Strategies of Healthcare System in a Large-scale Disaster 大规模灾害中医疗系统响应策略的优化

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.001

Fredy Tantri PhD , Sulfikar Amir PhD

{"title":"Optimizing Response Strategies of Healthcare System in a Large-scale Disaster","authors":"Fredy Tantri PhD , Sulfikar Amir PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban infrastructures are invariably constituted by social and technical components whose capacity to withstand crisis is determined by the resilience of their sociotechnical structures. This study aims to apply the principles of sociotechnical resilience in modeling and simulating disaster response in urban areas. Drawing on a case study of Jakarta, Indonesia, our study focuses on the role of hospitals as part of healthcare infrastructure in response to a large-scale disaster. Each hospital is modeled as a coordinated location with a certain amount of resources, primarily in terms of medical staff. We perform sensitivity analysis through Monte Carlo simulations to observe the impacts of various response strategies, disaster severity, and communication duration on system resilience. The results show that centralized systems are generally more suitable for dealing with low disaster severity, while the decentralized strategy performs better during a disaster with worse impacts. Additionally, the time taken for communication and coordination can significantly affect the performance of centralized systems. By simulating various scenarios, parameters, and recovery protocols, the model we developed can help policymakers, city planners, and other stakeholders design proper response strategies suitable to their structural conditions and available resources during a large-scale disaster in urban cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 288-301"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000329/pdfft?md5=31a6776695af8f5d786eb6164653fe6e&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000329-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137343875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk perception and safety analysis on petroleum production system of three gas fields in Bangladesh 孟加拉国三个天然气田采油系统风险感知与安全分析

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.003

Md. Numan Hossain, M. Farhad Howladar

引用次数: 2

Investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime incidents number in different cities 调查新冠肺炎疫情对不同城市犯罪事件数量的影响

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2021.10.008

Miaomiao Hou, Zhaolong Zeng, Xiaofeng Hu, Jinming Hu

{"title":"Investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime incidents number in different cities","authors":"Miaomiao Hou, Zhaolong Zeng, Xiaofeng Hu, Jinming Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2021.10.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2021.10.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The COVID-19 pandemic is strongly affecting many aspects of human life and society around the world. To investigate whether this pandemic also influences crime, the differences in crime incidents numbers before and during the pandemic in four large cities (namely Washington DC, Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles) are investigated. Moreover, the Granger causal relationships between crime incident numbers and new cases of COVID-19 are also examined. Based on that, new cases of COVID-19 with significant Granger causal correlations are used to improve the crime prediction performance. The results show that crime is generally impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it varies in different cities and with different crime types. Most types of crimes have seen fewer incidents numbers during the pandemic than before. Several Granger causal correlations are found between the COVID-19 cases and crime incidents in these cities. More specifically, crime incidents numbers of theft in Washington DC, Chicago and New York City, fraud in Washington DC and Los Angeles, assault in Chicago and New York City, and robbery in Los Angeles and New York City, are significantly Granger caused by the new case of COVID-19. These results may be partially explained by the Routine Activity theory and Opportunity theory that people may prefer to stay at home to avoid being infected with COVID-19 during the pandemic, giving fewer chances for crimes. In addition, involving new cases of COVID-19 as a variable can slightly improve the performance of crime prediction in terms of some specific types of crime. This study is expected to obtain deeper insights into the relationships between the pandemic and crime in different cities, and to provide new attempts for crime prediction during the pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 340-352"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000135/pdfft?md5=66be8c9a3b11187658c8d9f1458a5196&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000135-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49481408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

Atmospheric dispersion of chemical, biological, and radiological hazardous pollutants: Informing risk assessment for public safety 化学、生物和放射性有害污染物的大气扩散:为公共安全提供风险评估信息

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.001

Xiaole Zhang , Jing Wang

{"title":"Atmospheric dispersion of chemical, biological, and radiological hazardous pollutants: Informing risk assessment for public safety","authors":"Xiaole Zhang , Jing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Modern society is confronted with emerging threats from chemical, biological, and radiological (CBR) hazardous substances, which are intensively utilized in the chemical, medical, and energy industries. The atmospheric dispersion of released CBR hazardous pollutants can influence a large percentage of the population owing to their rapid process with extensive spatial coverage. It is important to comprehensively understand the behaviors of the released CBR pollutants in the atmosphere to fully evaluate the risks and protect public safety. In this study, we reviewed the advancements in the atmospheric transport of CBR pollutants, including the urban atmospheric boundary layer, unique concepts, and models for CBR pollutants. We underlined the development of innovative methodologies (e.g., inverse estimation and data assimilation methods) for the atmospheric transport of accidentally released CBR pollutants to reduce uncertainties in emissions and accumulated errors during dispersion by combining numerical models with monitoring data. Finally, we introduced progress in quantitative risk assessment, including exposure assessment and dose-response relationships for CBR hazardous pollutants. A framework, source, assimilation, fundamentals, exposure, and risk (SAFER), has been proposed to integrate the key components in the risk assessment of airborne CBR hazardous pollutants. These methods and models can contribute to effective risk preparedness, prevention, evidence-based policymaking, and emergency response to airborne CBR pollutants.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 372-397"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000469/pdfft?md5=8c0ed92049cba8ab43ebf414327c3055&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000469-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49213453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Key technologies of the emergency platform in China 中国应急平台关键技术研究

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.10.001

Hongyong Yuan , Lida Huang , Tao Chen , Yang Chen , Hui Zhang , Xuerui Chen , Qing Deng , Zhichao He , Jiajun Wang , Yiting Wang

{"title":"Key technologies of the emergency platform in China","authors":"Hongyong Yuan , Lida Huang , Tao Chen , Yang Chen , Hui Zhang , Xuerui Chen , Qing Deng , Zhichao He , Jiajun Wang , Yiting Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.10.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.10.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An emergency platform is an informatization support platform for disaster information perception, disaster situational awareness, and emergency decision command. This is a key tool for ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of emergency responses. Numerous large countries have conducted in-depth research on the key technologies of emergency platforms. Over the past 20 years, with the reform of emergency management mechanisms, China has developed two generations of emergency platform systems. This paper reviews the two generations of emergency platforms and summarizes their key technologies including multi-source-based monitoring and early warning, multi-hazard risk assessment, “scenario-response”-based decision support, synthetical forecasting based on incident chain, and emergency common operational picture (COP) for command and dispatch. Future research directions for the next generation emergency platforms are also proposed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 404-415"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000482/pdfft?md5=a63fef1bd76932fcbf0c4b730cdc28a2&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000482-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48230521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does a large group of pedestrians follow the evacuation signs? An experimental study 一大群行人是否遵循疏散标志?实验研究

安全科学与韧性(英文) Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.002

Jiguang Shi , Dapeng Dong , Ning Ding , Chang Sun , Zhenyu Fan

{"title":"Does a large group of pedestrians follow the evacuation signs? An experimental study","authors":"Jiguang Shi , Dapeng Dong , Ning Ding , Chang Sun , Zhenyu Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Guidance signs are generally considered to be key in improving the efficiency of emergency building evacuations. During a group evacuation, how obedient is the group to the evacuation signs? Would different evacuation signs affect the judgment of evacuated groups? Evacuation experiments were conducted to explore the influence of evacuation signs on the path selection of evacuation groups. Fourteen classes with 514 participants participated in these experiments, and each class participated in one experiment. Six classes conducted the experiments without guidance signs, and the rest conducted the experiments with guidance signs. The influences of the sign's color (red and green), pattern (arrow and running man), and status (whether it flashes) on the route selection were studied. The results show that (1) the evacuation signs significantly affect the route choices of the evacuated groups. (2) The herding effect during the evacuation process does not influence the guiding effect of evacuation signs. (3) Evacuation signs of different colors and patterns have different guiding effects, and the Green running man sign has the best effect. (4) The constant bright, or flashing evacuation sign corresponding to the flashing Red running man has a significant impact on the route selection of the evacuated group. The results may provide a reference for improving the emergency evacuation guidance model of office buildings or other buildings with a large flow of people and optimize ideas for the design and layout of emergency evacuation signs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 353-361"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449622000445/pdfft?md5=e3d07f9644c6d500eab11764cbd237dd&pid=1-s2.0-S2666449622000445-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41991805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1