安全科学与韧性(英文)最新文献

{"title":"DLW-CI: A Dynamic Likelihood-Weighted Cooperative Infotaxis approach for multi-drone cooperative multi-source search","authors":"Bin Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaoran Zhang ,&nbsp;Yatai Ji ,&nbsp;Yong Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhengqiu Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drones have gradually been employed to search for unknown sources during leakage accidents. However, current studies have mainly focused on the single-source search problem, while in practical situations, the location and quantity of the sources are commonly unknown. Existing multi-source search methods fail to accurately estimate the source term, primarily due to the inefficient utilization of concentration information. This limitation results in sub-optimal drone movement strategies. To address these issues, we propose a Dynamic Likelihood-Weighted Cooperative Infotaxis (DLW-CI) approach. The approach integrates the Infotaxis cognitive search strategy with multi-drone cooperation by optimizing both source term estimation and the cooperative mechanism. Specifically, we devise a novel source term estimation method that leverages multiple parallel particle filters, with each filter estimating the parameters of a potentially unknown source in scenarios. Subsequently, we introduce a cooperative mechanism based on dynamic likelihood weight to prevent multiple drones from concurrently estimating and searching for the same source. The results show that the success rate for the localization of 2–4 diffusion sources reaches 90%, 78%, and 42% respectively when employing the DLW-CI approach, achieving a 37% average improvement over baseline methods. Our findings indicate that the proposed DLW-CI approach significantly improves estimation accuracy and search efficiency for multi-drone cooperative multi-source search, making a valuable contribution to environmental safety monitoring applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100206"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144313631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-temporal prediction of terrorist attacks based on GCN-LSTM","authors":"Yingjie Du ,&nbsp;Ning Ding ,&nbsp;Hongyu Lv","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Terrorist attacks represent a significant threat to national order, social stability, and economic security. Accurate prediction of such attacks is a critical task for casualty reduction, enhanced decision-making, and optimal resource distribution in counter-terrorism efforts. This paper introduces an innovative spatio-temporal fusion framework that combines graph convolutional network (GCN) with long short-term memory (LSTM) models. By capturing and merging spatio-temporal features from relevant events, the proposed GCN-LSTM model achieves remarkable accuracy in predicting terrorist attacks. The experimental results demonstrate outstanding performance, with the model attaining minimal RMSE and MAE values of 0.037 and 0.031, respectively, surpassing all baseline models (LSTM, GCN, and CNN-LSTM-Transformer). Through its effective interpretation of complex spatio-temporal patterns underlying terrorist attacks, our model substantially enhances the predictive accuracy across diverse time horizons. These findings carry crucial implications for enhancing counter-terrorism strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 186-195"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143821369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Facility service balance problem with information feedback mechanism in the virtual–real interaction network","authors":"Lu Chen ,&nbsp;Jianming Zhu ,&nbsp;Guoqing Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Considering the information interaction in the virtual–real network, this paper introduces a novel three-layer model that explores the integrated influence between virtual and real networks. Existing models often fail to capture the dynamic feedback between these networks and do not effectively simulate integrated decision-making processes. Focusing on the Facility Service Balance Problem, we aim to optimize resource allocation and information diffusion in response to real-world events like natural disasters or large-scale activities. Based on the Linear Threshold model, the Feedback Linear Threshold model, which incorporates feedback mechanisms between virtual and real networks and integrates both original and feedback information in the activation function of nodes, has been proposed to better simulate the information feedback and integrated decision-making process. Then, combined with location-based interpersonal and online social networks, a comprehensive framework that models decision-making processes without direct influence between decision-makers has been provided, focusing on the decision-making of individuals influenced by cumulative information, ultimately maximizing the facility service efficiency. Finally, conduct experiments have been conducted, using two types of data to test the general effectiveness of the feedback mechanism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100191"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144306988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental study on enhancing the foam spray range of compressed air foam nozzle","authors":"Fengju Shang ,&nbsp;Jiaqing Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Liu ,&nbsp;Yi Guo ,&nbsp;Yunpeng Yang ,&nbsp;Lilong Nie ,&nbsp;Kaiyuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2025.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the core equipment in power systems, ultra-high voltage (UHV) transformers pose a high fire risk. The compressed-air foam spray nozzle is a novel end-release device that, due to its high efficiency and excellent suppression effect on oil-based fires, has been increasingly applied in UHV substations. This study is based on a self-developed experimental platform for compressed-air foam firefighting systems. To meet practical engineering needs, the longitudinal maximum of the contour line at the threshold of 12 L/(min·m²) was selected as the spray range. The study systematically explored the factors influencing the spray range of the spray nozzle. Experimental results revealed that when the hole elevation angle was 60°, the average spray range increased by 59 % compared to 0°. When the nozzle aperture was 10 mm and the outlet pressure was 0.15 MPa, the spray range improved by 17 %. Additionally, as the outlet pressure increased, the foam spray range grew significantly, with a 35.2 % increase at 0.3 MPa compared to 0.1 MPa, indicating that the outlet pressure had a substantial effect on the spray range. To predict the spray range increase, an empirical model is developed for the outlet pressure versus the spray range. After analyzing the above three influencing factors, all the data of various working conditions were integrated into a single dataset, a prediction model of the spray range was established, and the importance of the factors affecting the range was ranked. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for the optimized design and engineering application of compressed-air foam systems (CAFSs).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100193"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144366812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk forecasting for shortfalls in achieving sustainable development goals: A corruption perspective","authors":"Abroon Qazi","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the relationship between corruption and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is essential for comprehensively addressing sustainable development challenges. Corruption, with its damaging impact on governance, institutions, and public trust, poses a substantial barrier to achieving the SDGs. This study investigates the interconnections between corruption risk at the country level and the risks associated with achieving the SDGs. A Bayesian belief network model is developed using two datasets related to country-level sustainability and corruption performance. The model yields an 86.3 % accuracy in predicting outcomes for the two extreme levels of corruption risk. The findings indicate that the “high risk” state of corruption can significantly hinder progress on the “good health and well-being,” “zero hunger”, and “peace, justice and strong institutions” SDGs. Conversely, the “low risk” state of corruption can significantly enhance performance on the “sustainable cities and communities”, “zero hunger”, and “no poverty” SDGs. This study's exploration of the interconnected relationship between corruption and SDG risks offers valuable insights for policymakers. Its contribution lies in examining the dependencies between corruption and sustainability from a risk science perspective, capturing interactions across all 17 SDGs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 237-249"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143852016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comprehensive review of bibliometric and methodological approaches in flood mitigation studies: Current trends and future directions","authors":"Funmilayo Ebun Rotimi,&nbsp;Roohollah Kalatehjari,&nbsp;Taofeeq Durojaye Moshood,&nbsp;George Dokyi","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has become a pressing concern, with an alarming increase in flooding events posing significant risks to residential areas worldwide. As land and infrastructure development rapidly evolve, it is crucial to systematically analyze the bibliometric patterns and methodological trends in flood mitigation research, with a specific focus on residential building flood mitigation. This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of the bibliometric patterns and methodological trends in flood mitigation research over the past two decades, identifies prevailing gaps, and proposes future research directions to enhance the effectiveness of flood mitigation strategies. Using data from the Scopus database, 441 publications were objectively selected and subjected to metadata analysis. The study identifies top authors, contributing institutions, nations, and the distribution of contributions across different fields and methodologies. The findings emphasize the need for an integrated and interdisciplinary approach to flood reduction research, considering the complex interplay of social, ecological, and physical dimensions in flood risk management. The study reveals the predominance of modeling and simulation approaches, geographic information systems (GIS) remote sensing approaches, and statistical and data-driven approaches as the most widely employed methodologies. Furthermore, it highlights the growing diversity of approaches, with increasing interest in machine learning algorithms and combined methods. Also, this study provides valuable recommendations for future research, emphasizing the importance of developing effective flood-mitigating strategies to enhance community resilience. It advocates for a multidisciplinary and integrated approach, leveraging geospatial technologies, machine learning algorithms, and collaborative methodologies to advance flood mitigation research and practice. Future research should consider exploring additional databases, including Web of Science, EBSCO, IEEE, and Google Scholar, to conduct a more comprehensive review of the available literature. There is need for future studies to conduct in-depth comparative analyses of flood mitigation methodologies, particularly in the context of residential buildings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 280-296"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing firefighting resilience in airports through genetic algorithms and decision-making frameworks","authors":"Yulong Zhu,&nbsp;Wei Tian,&nbsp;Xuhong Jia,&nbsp;Quanyi Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aviation transport infrastructure is key to international commerce and cultural exchange, with any emergency potentially causing major impacts on contemporary society. With advancements in technology and growing societal needs, modern airports are evolving toward smarter and more integrated systems. While transportation engineers and planners aim to bolster resilience in subsystems and transport management with new technologies and diverse strategies for effective risk management, the growing complexity of disaster-inducing factors and fire dynamics in airport systems somewhat diminishes the accuracy of existing risk vulnerability analyses. It drives the demand for enhanced firefighting resilience. This study discusses assessment and improvement strategies for enhancing the resilience of airport firefighting systems in the context of smart airports. Specifically, we analyze the resilience characteristics of airport firefighting systems, which can be subdivided into four dimensions: stability capability, resistance capability, recovery capability, and adaptability capability. Furthermore, by integrating human, mechanical, environmental, and managerial elements, a comprehensive resilience evaluation indicator system is constructed. We propose a modified composite weight calculation framework that innovatively introduces genetic algorithm (GA) in the weight combination process to simplify the model into a constrained minimization problem from a mathematical perspective, thus making the ranking results reflect ordinal and intensity information. The findings highlight the significance of technological advancements, emergency response capabilities, expertise in fire management, cross-departmental collaborative responses, personnel psychological quality, and accident investigation skills in enhancing the resilience of airport firefighting systems. Although the comprehensive evaluation model based on expert knowledge still focuses primarily on resistance, the criterion of adaptation capability has a more pronounced increasing trend in weight under correction, highlighting its significant role and potential in future airport firefighting resilience indicators. This research aims to offer guidance to the aviation sector and managers for devising appropriate protection strategies, thereby improving public safety at airports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 212-225"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143838398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ada-GCNLSTM: An adaptive urban crime spatiotemporal prediction model","authors":"Miaoxuan Shan ,&nbsp;Chunlin Ye ,&nbsp;Peng Chen ,&nbsp;Shufan Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate crime prediction is crucial for the proactive allocation of law enforcement resources and ensuring urban safety. A major challenge in achieving accurate predictions lies in identifying generalized patterns of criminal behavior from spatiotemporal features in crime data. Additionally, the inherent randomness and volatility of crime data at the spatiotemporal level introduce noise, which can mislead prediction models. While many effective spatiotemporal crime prediction methods have been proposed, most overlook this issue, reducing their ability to generalize. In this paper, we introduce a novel deep learning-based model, adaptive-GCNLSTM (Ada-GCNLSTM). Specifically, in the spatial feature extraction module, we enhance the model's ability to capture crime spatial distributions by leveraging graph convolutional networks to model spatial dependencies in conjunction with the maximum mean discrepancy to extract the universal features of crime data. We then incorporate a memory network based on long short-term memory network to capture the underlying relationships between temporal features. Through extensive experiments, our model demonstrates an average improvement of 11.7% in mean absolute error and 2.7% in root mean squared error across the three datasets, outperforming the best baseline model. These results underscore the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing crime prediction accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 226-236"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143852015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-scale characterization of industrial infrastructure vulnerability to multiple hazards in their territories","authors":"David Javier Castro Rodriguez,&nbsp;Antonello A. Barresi,&nbsp;Micaela Demichela","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Directive 2022/2557 from the European Commission aims to enhance the resilience of critical entities in Europe by integrating with existing European legislation, but it lacks explicit guidance on addressing vulnerabilities. Specifically, major hazard industries (MHIs) are critical infrastructures that face unique risks arising from the interactions of natural and technological hazards (NaTech events); nevertheless, existing policies frequently overlook the potential vulnerabilities of process plants to these complex phenomena. The goal of this research was to systematically characterize the vulnerability of industrial critical infrastructures (ICIs) to various hazards in their territories. A multi-scale procedure was implemented in the Italian context as a case study, where spatial analyses were developed using open data. Starting from the Italian national inventory, the MHIs were clustered in industrial macro-sectors and represented nationally by regions, relating their distribution to meteorological or geophysical data of interest. At the regional scale, the MHIs of the Piedmont Region were represented as punctual elements, associating the population within potential damage zones by province. At the municipal scale, a previously validated multi-hazard tool for vulnerability assessment was then tailored to a reduced scale for specific applications in an industrial context. This adaptation, which considers the two-way interaction between an energetic critical infrastructure and various hazards in its surroundings, delivers a spatial vulnerability profile that may complement the probabilistic analysis of industrial incidental scenarios. In summary, this framework may raise the stakeholders awareness at various levels and with different interests within the industrial accident control decision-making chain, from operators to competent authorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 297-315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emergency scenario modeling for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks","authors":"Rodríguez Pillaga Renán Teodoro ,&nbsp;Bañuls Víctor A．","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study is novel, as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency. To this end, the CIA-ISM methodology, which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Model (ISM), allows the representation of all possible connections among risks, as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents, resources and variable environmental conditions. The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks, identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time. This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 265-279"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}