安全科学与韧性(英文)最新文献

{"title":"Risk forecasting for shortfalls in achieving sustainable development goals: A corruption perspective","authors":"Abroon Qazi","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the relationship between corruption and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is essential for comprehensively addressing sustainable development challenges. Corruption, with its damaging impact on governance, institutions, and public trust, poses a substantial barrier to achieving the SDGs. This study investigates the interconnections between corruption risk at the country level and the risks associated with achieving the SDGs. A Bayesian belief network model is developed using two datasets related to country-level sustainability and corruption performance. The model yields an 86.3 % accuracy in predicting outcomes for the two extreme levels of corruption risk. The findings indicate that the “high risk” state of corruption can significantly hinder progress on the “good health and well-being,” “zero hunger”, and “peace, justice and strong institutions” SDGs. Conversely, the “low risk” state of corruption can significantly enhance performance on the “sustainable cities and communities”, “zero hunger”, and “no poverty” SDGs. This study's exploration of the interconnected relationship between corruption and SDG risks offers valuable insights for policymakers. Its contribution lies in examining the dependencies between corruption and sustainability from a risk science perspective, capturing interactions across all 17 SDGs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 237-249"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143852016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comprehensive review of bibliometric and methodological approaches in flood mitigation studies: Current trends and future directions","authors":"Funmilayo Ebun Rotimi,&nbsp;Roohollah Kalatehjari,&nbsp;Taofeeq Durojaye Moshood,&nbsp;George Dokyi","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has become a pressing concern, with an alarming increase in flooding events posing significant risks to residential areas worldwide. As land and infrastructure development rapidly evolve, it is crucial to systematically analyze the bibliometric patterns and methodological trends in flood mitigation research, with a specific focus on residential building flood mitigation. This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of the bibliometric patterns and methodological trends in flood mitigation research over the past two decades, identifies prevailing gaps, and proposes future research directions to enhance the effectiveness of flood mitigation strategies. Using data from the Scopus database, 441 publications were objectively selected and subjected to metadata analysis. The study identifies top authors, contributing institutions, nations, and the distribution of contributions across different fields and methodologies. The findings emphasize the need for an integrated and interdisciplinary approach to flood reduction research, considering the complex interplay of social, ecological, and physical dimensions in flood risk management. The study reveals the predominance of modeling and simulation approaches, geographic information systems (GIS) remote sensing approaches, and statistical and data-driven approaches as the most widely employed methodologies. Furthermore, it highlights the growing diversity of approaches, with increasing interest in machine learning algorithms and combined methods. Also, this study provides valuable recommendations for future research, emphasizing the importance of developing effective flood-mitigating strategies to enhance community resilience. It advocates for a multidisciplinary and integrated approach, leveraging geospatial technologies, machine learning algorithms, and collaborative methodologies to advance flood mitigation research and practice. Future research should consider exploring additional databases, including Web of Science, EBSCO, IEEE, and Google Scholar, to conduct a more comprehensive review of the available literature. There is need for future studies to conduct in-depth comparative analyses of flood mitigation methodologies, particularly in the context of residential buildings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 280-296"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heat penetration and thermal response due to firebrand accumulation on the exterior walls of dwellings","authors":"M. Zitouni ,&nbsp;M.R.T. Arruda ,&nbsp;P. Cantor ,&nbsp;F. Branco","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents an extensive experimental investigation campaign concerning the thermal fire reaction of firebrands, as they accumulate on the exterior walls of dwellings, a common occurrence in southern Europe. Three types of wall core layers were studied: bricks, designed according to the Exterior Thermal Insulation Composite Systems (ETICS) methodology, cross-laminated timber (CLT) and normal wood (NW), both utilizing the sandwich methodology. The wall specimens are made of a combination of materials such as three types of mortar (Tria, Sika, and Weber), and various thermal insulation materials, such as agglomerates of composite cork, impermeable membranes, rigid rock wool, fireproof paint, and extruded polystyrene rigid foam (XPS), which are recommended for their good performance against fire and high temperatures. Firebrands are then deposited on the localized surfaces of the wall specimens, and the temperature is recorded in each layer. This study aims to precisely verify the firebrand reaction to fire, including the type of ignition, smoke and droplet production. The insulation capabilities of each insulation and wall system will also be analyzed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100189"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimizing firefighting resilience in airports through genetic algorithms and decision-making frameworks","authors":"Yulong Zhu,&nbsp;Wei Tian,&nbsp;Xuhong Jia,&nbsp;Quanyi Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aviation transport infrastructure is key to international commerce and cultural exchange, with any emergency potentially causing major impacts on contemporary society. With advancements in technology and growing societal needs, modern airports are evolving toward smarter and more integrated systems. While transportation engineers and planners aim to bolster resilience in subsystems and transport management with new technologies and diverse strategies for effective risk management, the growing complexity of disaster-inducing factors and fire dynamics in airport systems somewhat diminishes the accuracy of existing risk vulnerability analyses. It drives the demand for enhanced firefighting resilience. This study discusses assessment and improvement strategies for enhancing the resilience of airport firefighting systems in the context of smart airports. Specifically, we analyze the resilience characteristics of airport firefighting systems, which can be subdivided into four dimensions: stability capability, resistance capability, recovery capability, and adaptability capability. Furthermore, by integrating human, mechanical, environmental, and managerial elements, a comprehensive resilience evaluation indicator system is constructed. We propose a modified composite weight calculation framework that innovatively introduces genetic algorithm (GA) in the weight combination process to simplify the model into a constrained minimization problem from a mathematical perspective, thus making the ranking results reflect ordinal and intensity information. The findings highlight the significance of technological advancements, emergency response capabilities, expertise in fire management, cross-departmental collaborative responses, personnel psychological quality, and accident investigation skills in enhancing the resilience of airport firefighting systems. Although the comprehensive evaluation model based on expert knowledge still focuses primarily on resistance, the criterion of adaptation capability has a more pronounced increasing trend in weight under correction, highlighting its significant role and potential in future airport firefighting resilience indicators. This research aims to offer guidance to the aviation sector and managers for devising appropriate protection strategies, thereby improving public safety at airports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 212-225"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143838398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ada-GCNLSTM: An adaptive urban crime spatiotemporal prediction model","authors":"Miaoxuan Shan ,&nbsp;Chunlin Ye ,&nbsp;Peng Chen ,&nbsp;Shufan Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate crime prediction is crucial for the proactive allocation of law enforcement resources and ensuring urban safety. A major challenge in achieving accurate predictions lies in identifying generalized patterns of criminal behavior from spatiotemporal features in crime data. Additionally, the inherent randomness and volatility of crime data at the spatiotemporal level introduce noise, which can mislead prediction models. While many effective spatiotemporal crime prediction methods have been proposed, most overlook this issue, reducing their ability to generalize. In this paper, we introduce a novel deep learning-based model, adaptive-GCNLSTM (Ada-GCNLSTM). Specifically, in the spatial feature extraction module, we enhance the model's ability to capture crime spatial distributions by leveraging graph convolutional networks to model spatial dependencies in conjunction with the maximum mean discrepancy to extract the universal features of crime data. We then incorporate a memory network based on long short-term memory network to capture the underlying relationships between temporal features. Through extensive experiments, our model demonstrates an average improvement of 11.7% in mean absolute error and 2.7% in root mean squared error across the three datasets, outperforming the best baseline model. These results underscore the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing crime prediction accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 226-236"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143852015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-scale characterization of industrial infrastructure vulnerability to multiple hazards in their territories","authors":"David Javier Castro Rodriguez,&nbsp;Antonello A. Barresi,&nbsp;Micaela Demichela","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Directive 2022/2557 from the European Commission aims to enhance the resilience of critical entities in Europe by integrating with existing European legislation, but it lacks explicit guidance on addressing vulnerabilities. Specifically, major hazard industries (MHIs) are critical infrastructures that face unique risks arising from the interactions of natural and technological hazards (NaTech events); nevertheless, existing policies frequently overlook the potential vulnerabilities of process plants to these complex phenomena. The goal of this research was to systematically characterize the vulnerability of industrial critical infrastructures (ICIs) to various hazards in their territories. A multi-scale procedure was implemented in the Italian context as a case study, where spatial analyses were developed using open data. Starting from the Italian national inventory, the MHIs were clustered in industrial macro-sectors and represented nationally by regions, relating their distribution to meteorological or geophysical data of interest. At the regional scale, the MHIs of the Piedmont Region were represented as punctual elements, associating the population within potential damage zones by province. At the municipal scale, a previously validated multi-hazard tool for vulnerability assessment was then tailored to a reduced scale for specific applications in an industrial context. This adaptation, which considers the two-way interaction between an energetic critical infrastructure and various hazards in its surroundings, delivers a spatial vulnerability profile that may complement the probabilistic analysis of industrial incidental scenarios. In summary, this framework may raise the stakeholders awareness at various levels and with different interests within the industrial accident control decision-making chain, from operators to competent authorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 297-315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the resilience of startups in the COVID-19 pandemic using the system dynamics approach","authors":"Mahdi Homayounfar ,&nbsp;Faezeh Kamali-Chirani ,&nbsp;Adel Pourghader Chobar ,&nbsp;Amir Daneshvar","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted startups, disrupting operations, consumer behavior, and market dynamics. Addressing these challenges necessitates an in-depth analysis of startups' vulnerabilities and the development of effective strategies to bolster their resilience and sustainability. This study introduces a combined thematic analysis and system dynamics approach to enhance startups' resilience during the pandemic. A qualitative thematic analysis was employed to identify the key factors influencing resilience. Semi-structured interviews with 12 experts provided data categorized into 21 themes across four dimensions: team, founder, human resources, and startup characteristics. Building on the qualitative phase, a system dynamics model was developed, comprising 32 auxiliary variables, five flow variables, four constants, and four stock variables. Four scenarios were devised to evaluate resilience within this model, reflecting varying degrees of financial strength, government support, and crisis management improvements. The results highlight the effectiveness of Scenario 4, which achieved the highest resilience improvement, driven by a 5 % increase in financial strength, a 5 % increase in government support, and a 10 % enhancement in crisis management. These findings offer critical insights for stakeholders and researchers seeking to strengthen startup resilience during crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100185"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144536048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emergency scenario modeling for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks","authors":"Rodríguez Pillaga Renán Teodoro ,&nbsp;Bañuls Víctor A．","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study is novel, as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency. To this end, the CIA-ISM methodology, which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Model (ISM), allows the representation of all possible connections among risks, as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents, resources and variable environmental conditions. The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks, identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time. This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 265-279"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Safe evacuation framework with intelligent dynamic exit sign system and demonstration in tunnel fire","authors":"Ho Yin Wong ,&nbsp;Meng Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaoning Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuxin Zhang ,&nbsp;Ming Chi Wong ,&nbsp;Xinyan Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emergency exit sign systems guide occupants to safety, but they may fail in fires when smoke blocks routes. This study introduces an Intelligent Dynamic Exit Sign (IDES) system, integrating a fire-detection sensor network with dynamic sign patterns, which could enhance evacuation safety by always guiding occupants away from hazards. The system's operation framework and design rules ensure effective implementation. To address ethical concerns in complex scenarios, IDES includes a reversion mechanism that switches dynamic signs back to conventional static signs when necessary. The system's effectiveness is demonstrated through prototyping in a lab-scale tunnel model, assessing both the dynamic patterns and hardware reliability. Results show the potential of IDES to automatically optimize evacuation procedures and occupant safety during emergencies. Furthermore, the study delves into challenges associated with real-world implementation and offers insights for future applications of this innovative safety solution in more complex built environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 3","pages":"Article 100183"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144322423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimization of vehicle routing problems combining the demand urgency and road damage for multiple disasters","authors":"Ran Li ,&nbsp;Xiaofei Ye ,&nbsp;Shuyi Pei ,&nbsp;Xingchen Yan ,&nbsp;Tao Wang ,&nbsp;Jun Chen ,&nbsp;Pengjun Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, a “double-hazard scenario” consisting of a natural disaster and a public health event simultaneously occurring is more likely to arise. However, compared with single-hazard, multiple disasters confront the challenges of complexity, diversity, and demand urgency. To improve the efficiency of emergency material distribution under multiple disasters, this study first divided multiple disasters into three categories: independent scenario, sequential scenario, and coupling scenario. A set of evaluation index systems for multiple disasters was established to quantify the urgency of demand. The routing optimization model of emergency vehicles for multiple disasters was proposed by combining demand urgency and road damage, and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was used to simulate and validate the model. A coupling scenario considering two typical disasters of hurricanes and epidemics was selected as a validation example, and sensitivity analysis was also performed for different algorithms, scenarios, and constraints. The results demonstrated that the proposed model could effectively address the vehicle routing problem of emergency materials in the context of multiple disasters. Compared to the NSGA, the NSGA-II was used to reduce the total delivery time, cost, and penalty cost by 15.98%, 13.60%, and 16.14%, respectively. Compared with the independent scenario, the coupling scenario increased the total delivery time and cost by 186.28% and 132.48% during the epidemic. However, it reduced the total delivery time by 4.00% and increased the delivery cost by 23.55% compared with the hurricane. Compared with the model without consideration, the model considering demand urgency and road damage reduced the total delivery time and cost by 17.88% and 8.73%, respectively. The model constructed in this study addressed the vehicle routing problem considering the demand urgency and road damage in the optimization process, particularly in the context of multiple disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":62710,"journal":{"name":"安全科学与韧性(英文)","volume":"6 2","pages":"Pages 196-211"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}