{"title":"Sparse group matrix regression model and its application in stock movements prediction","authors":"Bingzhen Chen, Wenjuan Zhai","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00568-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00568-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the era of big data, matrix data appear frequently in modern scientific applications, such as electroencephalography (EEG) data, excitation-emission matrix (EEM) data, and colorimetric sensor array data. Some application data, such as stocks data, may not appear to be in matrix form, but we can reformulate it into matrix data. To the end of finding the group structure in these datasets, we propose a matrix sparse group Lasso variable selection and estimation method for data with high-dimensional predictors. The method is carried out through a penalized matrix regression model with an arbitrary group structure for the regression coefficient matrix. For the new proposed model, we establish the oracle bounds for the prediction error, the estimation error, and the order of sparsity. In order to get the estimator of the new model, we design a mixed coordinate descent algorithm. The numerical studies show that our model can select the group structure and sparsity accurately and effectively. Especially, we used the new model to predict the movements of some stocks selected from <span>NASDAQ</span> Stock Market.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 3","pages":"669 - 703"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148807638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bayesian estimation approach for linear regression models with linear inequality restrictions","authors":"Solmaz Seifollahi, Kaniav Kamary, Hossein Bevrani","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00564-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00564-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a Bayesian inference approach for univariate and multivariate linear models where the regression coefficients are subject to known linear combinations restricted by known intervals. Unlike most previous Bayesian studies on the univariate case—which assume that the constraint matrix defining the set of linear inequalities is a full-rank square matrix—our proposed method imposes no such condition. We develop a Bayesian estimation procedure for regression parameters in both univariate and multivariate settings that accommodate arbitrary constraint matrices. The efficiency of our method is evaluated through simulation studies, and its practical utility is illustrated by analyzing two real datasets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 3","pages":"639 - 667"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148807346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A dyadic multivariate mixture model for ordinal responses: application to coach–athlete interactions","authors":"Maria Iannario, Dimitris Karlis","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00563-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00563-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Dyadic data analysis is increasingly used to model intra- and inter-personal mechanisms across disciplines such as psychology, education, healthcare, and the social sciences. Examples of dyads include husband–wife, doctor–patient, parent–child, and coach–athlete relationships. Such data typically violate the standard independence assumption due to the inherent interdependence between dyad members, requiring more sophisticated modeling approaches. In this paper, we introduce a novel statistical framework—the Dyadic Multivariate Mixture Model (DMMM)—designed to address these complexities in the context of ordinal multivariate responses. The DMMM integrates techniques from dyadic analysis, finite mixtures, copula-based dependence modeling, and ordinal regression, offering a flexible and parsimonious way to capture latent interpersonal traits and heterogeneous patterns of interaction. While the motivating application concerns coach–athlete relationships in competitive swimming—where both members of the dyad responded to a series of Likert-scale items—the model itself is general and applicable across a wide range of domains where dyadic ordinal data are observed. These include clinical psychology (e.g., therapist–client), organizational settings (e.g., supervisor–employee), and educational contexts (e.g., teacher–student). The proposed methodology allows for the identification of latent dyadic profiles, the modeling of interdependence between responses, and the inclusion of covariates at multiple levels. A case study involving elite swimmers demonstrates the model’s ability to address three key research questions: measuring the strength of relational ties, identifying group differences in communication dynamics, and evaluating personality-related covariates that shape latent relational patterns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 3","pages":"585 - 611"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10182-026-00563-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148807231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An iterative plug-in algorithm for realized kernels","authors":"Yuanhua Feng, Chen Zhou","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00562-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00562-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Realized kernels (RK) of Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (Econometrica 76:1481–1536, 2008) are consistent estimators of daily integrated volatility (IV) under dependent exogenous and endogenous market microstructure noise (MMN), if the bandwidth is properly selected. We propose to calculate RK with an iterative plug-in (IPI) bandwidth selector by adapting the idea of Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (Econometr J 12:C1–C32, 2009). Under independent MMN, the IPI bandwidth converges (relatively) at the rate <span>(n^{-1/5})</span>. The selected bandwidth under dependent MMN also converges up to a bias factor. In both cases the resulting RK achieves its best rate of convergence of the order <span>(O_p(n^{-1/5}))</span> in the current context. The proposal is applied to a huge number of data examples. Its nice practical performance is further confirmed in a simulation with the approach of Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (Econometr J 12:C1–C32, 2009) and its resulting RK as comparisons. It shows that the IPI-algorithm and the resulting RK perform better than the comparisons, respectively.\u0000</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 3","pages":"459 - 488"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10182-026-00562-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148807483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Federico P. Cortese, Petter N. Kolm, Erik Lindström
{"title":"Generalized information criteria for high-dimensional sparse statistical jump models","authors":"Federico P. Cortese, Petter N. Kolm, Erik Lindström","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00554-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00554-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We extend the generalized information criteria framework for model selection to high-dimensional sparse statistical jump models, a recent class of statistically robust and computationally efficient alternatives to hidden Markov models. Specifically, we derive expressions for the model fit and complexity to construct suitable information criteria for hyperparameter selection. In extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate that our approach selects the correct hyperparameters with high probability. Finally, providing an empirical application, we infer the key features that drive the return dynamics of the world equity market. We find that a three-state model best describes the dynamics of MSCI developed and emerging markets indexes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 2","pages":"289 - 317"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10182-026-00554-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147985294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A two-stage approach for modeling non-sparse main effects with sparse interaction terms","authors":"Shun Yu, Yujie Gai, Yuehan Yang","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00555-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00555-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper concentrates on statistical models that feature both main effects and interaction terms, where the main effects exhibit a non-sparse structure while the interactions are sparse. This type of data structure is prevalent in various disciplines, including biology and genetics, and it often poses challenges due to the intricate interplay of interactions. We introduce a two-stage methodological method to address these modeling complexities, ensuring both accurate modeling and prediction. Our proposed method adeptly handles the complex correlations among interaction terms. Both numerical and theoretical evidence support the efficacy of our method across diverse problem domains. In extensive numerical comparisons with a range of established techniques, our method demonstrates superior statistical properties. We further apply our algorithm to a protein dataset related to Alzheimer’s disease, providing a practical tool for biological diagnosis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 2","pages":"319 - 346"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147985296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bayesian dynamic panel-ordered probit model with individual heterogeneity","authors":"Lei Shi, Yixin Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10182-026-00553-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-026-00553-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recent studies have suggested incorporating individual heterogeneity in the ordered choice models. This study proposes a new Bayesian model with individual heterogeneity in the dynamic panel-ordered probit model, which is the first attempt to capture individual heterogeneity for panel ordinal responses. The validity and accuracy of the newly proposed model are evaluated using simulated data. We further compare standard and individual heterogeneity models in analyzing subjective well-being in China, using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies. The empirical results demonstrate that the newly proposed model can measure the individual heterogeneity for panel ordinal responses fairly well.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 2","pages":"219 - 234"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2026-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147985212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A note on dynamic spatiotemporal ARCH models: small- and large-sample results","authors":"Philipp Otto, Osman Doğan, Süleyman Taşpınar","doi":"10.1007/s10182-025-00552-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-025-00552-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This short paper explores the estimation of a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model. The log-volatility term in this model can depend on (i) the spatial lag of the log-squared outcome variable, (ii) the time-lag of the log-squared outcome variable, (iii) the spatiotemporal lag of the log-squared outcome variable, (iv) exogenous variables, and (v) the unobserved heterogeneity across regions and time, i.e., the regional and time fixed effects. We examine the small- and large-sample properties of two quasi-maximum likelihood estimators and a generalised method of moments estimator for this model. We first summarize the theoretical properties of these estimators and then compare their finite sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"109 4","pages":"811 - 828"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10182-025-00552-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145915717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Esteban Cabello, María Dolores Esteban, Domingo Morales, Agustín Pérez
{"title":"Small area estimation of poverty indicators under bivariate Fay–Herriot model with correlated time effects","authors":"Esteban Cabello, María Dolores Esteban, Domingo Morales, Agustín Pérez","doi":"10.1007/s10182-025-00550-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-025-00550-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents an area-level temporal bivariate linear mixed model, incorporating correlated time effects for estimating socioeconomic indicators in small areas. The model is applied through the residual maximum likelihood method, leading to the derivation of empirical best linear unbiased predictors for these indicators. Additionally, an approximation of the mean square error matrix (MSE) is provided and four MSE estimators are proposed. The first estimator involves a plug-in approach to the MSE approximation, while the remaining estimators are based on parametric bootstrap procedures. To assess the performance of the fitting algorithm, predictors, and MSE estimators, three simulation experiments are carried out. An application to real data from the 2016 to 2022 Spanish Living Conditions Survey is conducted. The focus is on estimating poverty proportions and gaps for the year 2022, categorized by provinces and sex.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 3","pages":"551 - 583"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10182-025-00550-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148807591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Merle Munko, Marc Ditzhaus, Markus Pauly, Jin-Ting Zhang, Łukasz Smaga
{"title":"General multiple tests for functional data","authors":"Merle Munko, Marc Ditzhaus, Markus Pauly, Jin-Ting Zhang, Łukasz Smaga","doi":"10.1007/s10182-025-00549-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10182-025-00549-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While there exists several inferential methods for analyzing functional data in factorial designs, there is a lack of statistical tests that are valid (i) in general designs, (ii) under non-restrictive assumptions on the data generating process and (iii) allow for coherent post hoc analyses. In particular, most existing methods assume Gaussianity or equal covariance functions across groups (homoscedasticity) and are only applicable for specific study designs that do not allow for evaluation of interactions. Moreover, almost all strategies published to date are aimed at testing global hypotheses and do not directly allow a more in-depth analysis of multiple local hypotheses. To address the first two problems (i-ii), we propose flexible integral-type test statistics that are applicable in general factorial designs under minimal assumptions on the data generating process. In particular, we neither postulate homoscedasticity nor Gaussianity. To approximate the statistics’ null distribution, we adopt a resampling approach and validate it methodologically. Finally, we use our flexible testing framework to (iii) infer several local null hypotheses simultaneously. To allow for powerful data analysis, we thereby take the complex dependencies of the different local test statistics into account. In extensive simulations we confirm that the new methods are flexibly applicable. Two illustrative data analyses complete our study. The new testing procedures are implemented in the R package multiFANOVA, which is available on CRAN.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55446,"journal":{"name":"Asta-Advances in Statistical Analysis","volume":"110 3","pages":"489 - 518"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10182-025-00549-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148807487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}