Damià Benet, Fidel Costa, Christina Widiwijayanti, John Pallister, Gabriela Pedreros, Patrick Allard, Hanik Humaida, Yosuke Aoki, Fukashi Maeno
{"title":"VolcAshDB: a Volcanic Ash DataBase of classified particle images and features","authors":"Damià Benet, Fidel Costa, Christina Widiwijayanti, John Pallister, Gabriela Pedreros, Patrick Allard, Hanik Humaida, Yosuke Aoki, Fukashi Maeno","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01695-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01695-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Volcanic ash provides unique pieces of information that can help to understand the progress of volcanic activity at the early stages of unrest, and possible transitions towards different eruptive styles. Ash contains different types of particles that are indicative of eruptive styles and magma ascent processes. However, classifying ash particles into its main components is not straightforward. Diagnostic observations vary depending on the magma composition and the style of eruption, which leads to ambiguities in assigning a given particle to a given class. Moreover, there is no standardized methodology for particle classification, and thus different observers may infer different interpretations. To improve this situation, we created the web-based platform Volcanic Ash DataBase (VolcAshDB). The database contains > 6,300 multi-focused high-resolution images of ash particles as seen under the binocular microscope from a wide range of magma compositions and types of volcanic activity. For each particle image, we quantitatively extracted 33 features of shape, texture, and color, and petrographically classified each particle into one of the four main categories: free crystal, altered material, lithic, and juvenile. VolcAshDB (https://volcash.wovodat.org) is publicly available and enables users to browse, obtain visual summaries, and download the images with their corresponding labels. The classified images could be used for comparative studies and to train Machine Learning models to automatically classify particles and minimize observer biases.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139102992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Y. Mumbere Mutima, D. Nkouathio Guimolaire, M. Aganze Birindwa
{"title":"Nyiragongo (DRC) volcanic eruption of May 22, 2021: petrography of lava flows, seismicity and geothermal data relating to pre- and post-eruptive periods","authors":"Y. Mumbere Mutima, D. Nkouathio Guimolaire, M. Aganze Birindwa","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01701-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01701-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nyiragongo is one of the eight volcanoes of the Virunga volcanic chain located in the western branch of the East African Rift, more specifically in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The volcano's lava flows pose a threat to the city of Goma. Here we present seismographic, geothermal and petrographic data related to the May-June 2021 unrest and eruption of Nyiragongo. Seismicity was low prior to the eruption, with a daily average of 11 earthquakes from January 1 to May 22, 2021, the day of the eruption. Seismicity increased on May 22 2021, when the eruption began. During May 23 to September 28, 2021 the daily average number of earthquakes rose from 11 to 57 with the daily number of detected earthquakes peaking between May 22 and June 3, 2021. Prior to the eruption there was a moderate increase in ground temperature at the southern sites from February 27 to June 15 2021, but stability at the northern sites close to the volcano, and a constant radiant heat output from the crater. After the eruption, ground temperatures dropped from 23.5°C to 22.8°C; 23.7°C to 21.9°C from June 12 to June 20 2021 at the southern sites and from 26.0 °C to 24.5°C from May 26 to May 30 2021 at northern sites. The lava is glassy, with a low phenocryst content. The phases present in the basalt are: clinopyroxene, plagioclase, olivine and opaque minerals. In the foidites, the mineral phases are clinopyroxenes, plagioclases, nepheline and haüyne.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139094550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marcell Leonard Besser, Otavio Augusto Boni Licht, Eleonora Maria Gouvêa Vasconcellos
{"title":"Well-preserved fallout basaltic tuff in central Paraná-Etendeka Large Igneous Province: pyroclastic evidence of high fire-fountain eruptions","authors":"Marcell Leonard Besser, Otavio Augusto Boni Licht, Eleonora Maria Gouvêa Vasconcellos","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01694-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01694-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Paraná-Etendeka Large Igneous Province (PELIP) is renowned for its massive and rapidly emplaced flood basalts that dominated the centre of the Gondwana supercontinent during the Early Cretaceous. However, little is currently understood about mafic explosive eruptions, which often occur simultaneously with effusive activity, as observed in young basaltic volcanism. Here, we describe the first well-preserved layer of basaltic tuff interbedded within the high-Ti basaltic lava sequence in the central part of the PELIP, Brazil. The Tapalam Tuff consists of basaltic juvenile glassy components, scoriaceous lapilli and coarse ash, with a cement containing clays, zeolites, carbonates, and iron oxides. The glassy sideromelane fragments range from well-rounded achneliths with smooth, curved surfaces to highly angular, cuspate-shaped or platy shards. Achnelith morphologies include broken droplets (Pele’s tears), thread fragments (Pele’s hair), dumbbells, needles, spheres, ovoids and reticulite. Elongated pyroclasts exhibit a flat orientation, and subtle bedding is defined by granulometric alternation. Our findings suggest the deposits were laid down proximal to the volcanic vent and likely indicate a fallout deposit associated with a fluid-dominated, high (hundreds of meters or more than 1 km) fountain similar to a Hawaiian-type eruption, fed by low-viscosity basaltic magma. Volcanic activity was therefore not exclusively effusive but also involved explosive eruptions, which may have significant implications for understanding PELIP’s volcanic history and its relation to local and global environmental changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139051473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Warner Marzocchi, Laura Sandri, Salvatore Ferrara, Jacopo Selva
{"title":"From the detection of monitoring anomalies to the probabilistic forecast of the evolution of volcanic unrest: an entropy-based approach","authors":"Warner Marzocchi, Laura Sandri, Salvatore Ferrara, Jacopo Selva","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01692-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01692-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Owing to the current lack of plausible and exhaustive physical pre-eruptive models, often volcanologists rely on the observation of monitoring anomalies to track the evolution of volcanic unrest episodes. Taking advantage from the work made in the development of Bayesian Event Trees (BET), here we formalize an entropy-based model to translate the observation of anomalies into probability of a specific volcanic event of interest. The model is quite general and it could be used as a stand-alone eruption forecasting tool or to set up conditional probabilities for methodologies like the BET and of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The proposed model has some important features worth noting: (i) it is rooted in a coherent logic, which gives a physical sense to the heuristic information of volcanologists in terms of entropy; (ii) it is fully transparent and can be established in advance of a crisis, making the results reproducible and revisable, providing a transparent audit trail that reduces the overall degree of subjectivity in communication with civil authorities; (iii) it can be embedded in a unified probabilistic framework, which provides an univocal taxonomy of different kinds of uncertainty affecting the forecast and handles these uncertainties in a formal way. Finally, for the sake of example, we apply the procedure to track the evolution of the 1982–1984 phase of unrest at Campi Flegrei.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139051468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Silvana Hidalgo, Benjamin Bernard, Patricia Mothes, Cristina Ramos, Jorge Aguilar, Daniel Andrade, Pablo Samaniego, Hugo Yepes, Minard Hall, Alexandra Alvarado, Mónica Segovia, Mario Ruiz, Patricio Ramón, Mayra Vaca
{"title":"Hazard assessment and monitoring of Ecuadorian volcanoes: challenges and progresses during four decades since IG-EPN foundation","authors":"Silvana Hidalgo, Benjamin Bernard, Patricia Mothes, Cristina Ramos, Jorge Aguilar, Daniel Andrade, Pablo Samaniego, Hugo Yepes, Minard Hall, Alexandra Alvarado, Mónica Segovia, Mario Ruiz, Patricio Ramón, Mayra Vaca","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01685-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01685-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Instituto Geofísico (IG-EPN) was created in 1983 by faculty of the Escuela Politécnica Nacional, a public university in Quito, Ecuador, with the objective of assessing volcanic hazard in the country. Since then, the IG-EPN has established and developed an instrumental monitoring network and from 1999 has faced the eruption of five continental-arc volcanoes (Guagua Pichincha, Tungurahua, Reventador, Cotopaxi, and Sangay) which displayed varied hazards, eruptive dynamics, eruption durations, and socio-economic contexts. At the same time, mainly effusive eruptions took place in Galápagos archipelago, which has undergone an increase in local population over the last two decades and hence in the risk posed by volcanic eruptions. The outstanding handling of these volcanic crises was the reason why IG-EPN was granted with the <i>2020 Volcanic Surveillance and Crisis Management IAVCEI Award</i>. Now, the IG-EPN manages a country-wide network of about 500 instruments to monitor both volcanic and tectonic activity with a highly qualified staff of 80 people. This manuscript describes the history of IG-EPN, the main volcanic hazard studies and resulting hazard maps; the instrumental networks; and the volcanic crises that the IG-EPN faced during the last forty years.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138744102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, Josh L. Hayes, George T. Williams, Elinor S. Meredith, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Vanesa Burgos, Magfira Syarifuddin, Andrea Verolino
{"title":"How well do concentric radii approximate population exposure to volcanic hazards?","authors":"Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, Josh L. Hayes, George T. Williams, Elinor S. Meredith, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Vanesa Burgos, Magfira Syarifuddin, Andrea Verolino","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01686-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01686-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective risk management requires accurate assessment of population exposure to volcanic hazards. Assessment of this exposure at the large-scale has often relied on circular footprints of various sizes around a volcano to simplify challenges associated with estimating the directionality and distribution of the intensity of volcanic hazards. However, to date, exposure values obtained from circular footprints have never been compared with modelled hazard footprints. Here, we compare hazard and population exposure estimates calculated from concentric radii of 10, 30 and 100 km with those calculated from the simulation of dome- and column-collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), large clasts, and tephra fall across Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3, 4 and 5 scenarios for 40 volcanoes in Indonesia and the Philippines. We found that a 10 km radius—considered by previous studies to capture hazard footprints and populations exposed for VEI ≤ 3 eruptions—generally overestimates the extent for most simulated hazards, except for column collapse PDCs. A 30 km radius – considered representative of life-threatening VEI ≤ 4 hazards—overestimates the extent of PDCs and large clasts but underestimates the extent of tephra fall. A 100 km radius encapsulates most simulated life-threatening hazards, although there are exceptions for certain combinations of scenario, source parameters, and volcano. In general, we observed a positive correlation between radii- and model-derived population exposure estimates in southeast Asia for all hazards except dome collapse PDC, which is very dependent upon topography. This study shows, for the first time, how and why concentric radii under- or over-estimate hazard extent and population exposure, providing a benchmark for interpreting radii-derived hazard and exposure estimates.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"198 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138743604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David J. Harning, Thor Thordarson, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, Christopher R. Florian
{"title":"Repeated Early Holocene eruptions of Katla, Iceland, limit the temporal resolution of the Vedde Ash","authors":"David J. Harning, Thor Thordarson, Áslaug Geirsdóttir, Gifford H. Miller, Christopher R. Florian","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01690-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01690-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Vedde Ash, originating from the Katla central volcano, Iceland, and taken to be dispersed across the North Atlantic and Europe at ~ 12 ka BP, is widely used as a geochronological marker. However, distal tephra layers with compositions like the Vedde Ash but of younger ages question the reliability of Vedde-like tephra layers as robust age control. Vedde-like tephra layers are rare in Icelandic sedimentary sequences and, where present, lack firm age control. Providing well-constrained local records of Early Holocene Katla layers is therefore critical to assess uncertainties related to the use of the Vedde Ash. Here we report three visible and stratigraphically separated Early Holocene Katla tephra layers from Torfdalsvatn, a lake in north Iceland, each with chemistry similar to the Vedde Ash. Using high-resolution <sup>14</sup>C chronologies, we provide ages (± 1σ) for these tephra layers of 11,315 ± 180, 11,295 ± 195, and 11,170 ± 195 cal a BP. These observations reinforce that multiple explosive eruptions of Katla occurred over a 1000-year interval in the Early Holocene and challenge the precision of some paleoclimate records using the Vedde Ash as a geochronometer where age control is equivocal. This may lead to a re-evaluation of age models for some Early Holocene North Atlantic records.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"374 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The temporal evolution of monogenetic volcanism in the Central Andes: 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of El Negrillar volcanic field, Chile","authors":"Camila Loaiza, Patricia Larrea, Sergio Salinas, Daniela Parra-Encalada, Rubén Cartagena, Benigno Godoy","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01691-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01691-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>El Negrillar volcanic field has the largest extent and erupted volume (~ 6.8 km<sup>3</sup> DRE) of all the monogenetic centers of the Andean Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ). The volcanic field comprises 51 eruptive centers and 98 lava flows distributed in three clusters: Northern El Negrillar (NEN), Central El Negrillar (CEN), and Southern El Negrillar (SEN). Here, we present a geological map of El Negrillar, with detail of effusive and explosive volcanic deposits not previously mapped in the southern sector of the CEN and SEN clusters. Ten samples of El Negrillar’s deposits associated with effusive and phreatomagmatic activity were dated using <sup>40</sup>Ar/<sup>39</sup>Ar geochronology, establishing, along with previously published dates, a geochronological characterization of the development of El Negrillar’s monogenetic field. The collected age data yields a range of 0.982 ± 0.008 to 0.141 ± 0.072 Ma, compared to previously published K–Ar ages for the same deposits range from < 1.5 Ma to 0.6 ± 0.4 Ma. The new ages presented here indicate that the effusive activity at El Negrillar (NEN, CEN, and SEN), and the phreatomagmatic activity in the CEN (dated for first time) occurred quasi-simultaneously (within error). The end of the volcanic activity within the monogenetic field occurred in the eastern sector of the CEN at 0.141 ± 0.072 Ma, which represents the youngest eruption ages of El Negrillar. If these new ages are revisited within the regional context of the SW sector of the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex (APVC), the monogenetic volcanoes appear to be the result of a migration of mafic vents along a southwest-northeast trend, as shown by their age variation from the oldest to the youngest volcanic center: Morro Punta Negra, La Negrillar, El Negrillar, Tilocálar Sur, Tilocálar Norte, Cerro Tujle, El País, Puntas Negras, La Albóndiga Grande, and Cerro Overo. These results highlight the structural control on the emplacement of monogenetic mafic volcanism in the APVC.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"373 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maren Kahl, Daniel J. Morgan, Carl Thornber, Richard Walshaw, Kendra J. Lynn, Frank A. Trusdell
{"title":"Dynamics of magma mixing and magma mobilisation beneath Mauna Loa—insights from the 1950 AD Southwest Rift Zone eruption","authors":"Maren Kahl, Daniel J. Morgan, Carl Thornber, Richard Walshaw, Kendra J. Lynn, Frank A. Trusdell","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01680-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01680-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Eruptions from Mauna Loa’s Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) pose a significant threat to nearby communities due to high eruption rates and steep slopes resulting in little time for evacuation. Despite the large body of research done on Mauna Loa, knowledge of the timing and duration of magma residence and transfer through its internal plumbing system is still poorly constrained. This study presents a first quantitative look at thermochemical conditions and timescales of potentially deep storage and disaggregation of magmatic mush during the run-up to the voluminous 1950 AD SWRZ eruption. Details of heterogeneous compositions and textures of the macrocryst and glomerocryst cargo in 1950 AD lavas suggest magma mixing and crystal recycling along the entire plumbing system. Furthermore, the crystal cargo contains evidence for the direct interaction between primitive, deeply stored magma and pockets of more evolved magma stored at shallow to intermediate depths. An enigmatic attribute of 1950 near-vent lava is the near-ubiquitous presence of subhedral, unreacted Mg-rich orthopyroxene phenocrysts (Mg#>80). Phase relations of Mauna Loa olivine-tholeiite indicate that orthopyroxene joins olivine as a primary phase at pressures higher than 0.6 GPa. Coexisting Mg-rich olivine and orthopyroxene and the occurrence of harzburgitic (olivine-orthopyroxene) glomerocrysts provide evidence for cognate crystallisation at near-Moho (~ 18 km) depths (Thornber and Trusdell 2008). Petrogenetically diverse populations of glomerocrysts and macrocrysts alongside evidence of multilevel magma storage indicate a network of ephemeral and possibly interconnected magma pockets from near-Moho depths to the upper/mid-crust. Fe-Mg diffusion chronometry applied to 1950 AD olivine populations implies rapid mobilisation and transport of large volumes of magma (376×10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup>) from near-Moho storage to the surface within less than 8 months, with little residence time (~ 2 weeks) in the shallow (3–5 km) plumbing system.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"375 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Josh Crozier, Leif Karlstrom, Emily Montgomery-Brown, Mario Angarita, Valérie Cayol, Mary Grace Bato, Taiyi A. Wang, Ronni Grapenthin, Tara Shreve, Kyle Anderson, Ana Astort, Olivier Bodart, Flavio Cannavò, Gilda Currenti, Farshid Dabaghi, Brittany A. Erickson, Deepak Garg, Matthew Head, Adriana Iozzia, Young Cheol Kim, Hélène Le Mével, Camila Novoa Lizama, Cody Rucker, Francesca Silverii, Elisa Trasatti, Yan Zhan
{"title":"Understanding the drivers of volcano deformation through geodetic model verification and validation","authors":"Josh Crozier, Leif Karlstrom, Emily Montgomery-Brown, Mario Angarita, Valérie Cayol, Mary Grace Bato, Taiyi A. Wang, Ronni Grapenthin, Tara Shreve, Kyle Anderson, Ana Astort, Olivier Bodart, Flavio Cannavò, Gilda Currenti, Farshid Dabaghi, Brittany A. Erickson, Deepak Garg, Matthew Head, Adriana Iozzia, Young Cheol Kim, Hélène Le Mével, Camila Novoa Lizama, Cody Rucker, Francesca Silverii, Elisa Trasatti, Yan Zhan","doi":"10.1007/s00445-023-01687-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-023-01687-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Volcano geodesy often involves the use of models to explain observed surface deformation. A variety of forward models are used, from analytical point sources to numerical simulations that consider complex magma system geometries, topography, and material properties. Various inversion methods can then be used to relate observed volcano data to models. Ideally, forward models should be verified through intercomparison, to check for implementation errors and quantify the error induced by any approximations used. Additionally, forward models and inversion methods should be validated through tests with synthetic and/or real data, to determine their ability to match data and estimate parameter values within uncertainty. However, to date, there have not been comprehensive verification and validation efforts in volcano geodesy. Here, we report on the first phase of the Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) exercises, which were designed to build community involvement through web-based exercises involving calculations of static elastic displacement around pressurized magma reservoirs. The forward model exercises begin with a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space, then introduce topography, heterogeneous elastic properties, and spheroidal geometries. The inversion exercises provide synthetic noisy surface displacement data for a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space and assess consistency in estimates of reservoir location and volume/pressure change. There is variability in the results from both forward modeling and inversions, which highlights the strengths and limitations of different forward models, as well as the importance of inversion method choice and uncertainty quantification. This first phase of the DVD exercises serves as a community resource and will facilitate further efforts to develop standards of reproducibility.</p>","PeriodicalId":55297,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Volcanology","volume":"365 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}