Global and Planetary Change最新文献

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Corrigendum to “Mid-Piacenzian and future changes in South Asian precipitation under global warming” [Global and Planetary Change 248 (2025) 104760]. “全球变暖下南亚降水的中皮亚琴世和未来变化”[全球与行星变化248(2025)104760]的勘误表。
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104829
Xinquan Zhou, Chuanlian Liu
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Mid-Piacenzian and future changes in South Asian precipitation under global warming” [Global and Planetary Change 248 (2025) 104760].","authors":"Xinquan Zhou, Chuanlian Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104829","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 104829"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Increasing susceptibility of vegetation productivity to compound drought from 2001 to 2020 2001 - 2020年植被生产力对复合干旱的敏感性增加
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826
Jiwang Tang , Ben Niu , Zhigang Hu , Gang Fu , Xianzhou Zhang
{"title":"Increasing susceptibility of vegetation productivity to compound drought from 2001 to 2020","authors":"Jiwang Tang ,&nbsp;Ben Niu ,&nbsp;Zhigang Hu ,&nbsp;Gang Fu ,&nbsp;Xianzhou Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The atmospheric and soil droughts have exerted substantial effects on vegetation productivity, and generally occur simultaneously due to land-atmospheric feedback. However, the temporal changes in vegetation response to soil droughts, atmospheric droughts, and their compound droughts remain largely unknown. Using vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and two vegetation indexes including the leaf area index (LAI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), here we quantified the vegetation susceptibility to these three drought types via coincidence analysis and evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of them. Spatially, we found most of global vegetated areas (63.8 %) were more susceptible to compound droughts, with the higher vegetation susceptibility to them in the areas with less tree cover and more arid climate, respectively. Temporally, we revealed a predominated increasing trend (0.0027 year<sup>−1</sup> for LAI and 0.0023 year<sup>−1</sup> for SIF, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.05) in vegetation susceptibility to compound droughts over drought-susceptible regions during 2001–2020. Our finding highlighted an increasing ecosystem vulnerability to compound droughts, which could pose more threats on the stability of land carbon sink under future climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104826"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Applying historical records to extend the tropical cyclone climatology in southwestern Australia, 1830–2023 应用历史记录扩展澳大利亚西南部1830-2023年热带气旋气候学
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104830
Joanna Aldridge , Joseph Christensen
{"title":"Applying historical records to extend the tropical cyclone climatology in southwestern Australia, 1830–2023","authors":"Joanna Aldridge ,&nbsp;Joseph Christensen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historical climatologies of tropical cyclones have been constructed for five of the Earth's seven tropical cyclone basins and this reappraisal for the southeastern Indian Ocean moves a step closer to completing a global compilation for the 19th and 20th centuries. The need for longer-term climatologies is especially pronounced in our case-study region in the southwest area of Western Australia, where TC Alby (1978) is unique as an example of an unpredictable, high-impact event in the era of modern satellite monitoring. We identify 29 events for a ∼ 130-year period preceding 1960. Based on this extended record, tropical cyclone frequencies are calculated over a range of timeframes and latitudinal ranges. The record is dominated by strong interdecadal variability, and no long-term trend in frequency was determined. While no severe (Australian Category 3 and above) tropical cyclones have made landfall in Perth or adjacent regional cities over the past ∼200 years, our results clearly show that southwestern Australia has a long history of tropical cyclone impacts, calling into question its classification within the Australian building code as a non-cyclonic region. This revised climatology provides a basis for development of and comparison with stochastic tropical cyclone hazard models and climate change trend analysis, with use cases across emergency management, prioritisation of mitigation investment, re/insurance risk pricing, wind and storm surge hazard assessment, and associated uses in building design and land use planning. These findings underline the value of historical records for understanding tropical cyclones in areas of marginal cyclone influence and/or where instrumental observations are available for only the past 50–60 years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 104830"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood susceptibility assessment and mapping using GIS-based analytical hierarchy process and frequency ratio models 基于gis的层次分析法和频率比模型的洪水易感性评价与制图
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831
Saad Ashfaq , Muhammad Tufail , Asif Niaz , Sher Muhammad , Hassan Alzahrani , Aqil Tariq
{"title":"Flood susceptibility assessment and mapping using GIS-based analytical hierarchy process and frequency ratio models","authors":"Saad Ashfaq ,&nbsp;Muhammad Tufail ,&nbsp;Asif Niaz ,&nbsp;Sher Muhammad ,&nbsp;Hassan Alzahrani ,&nbsp;Aqil Tariq","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, flood susceptibility maps were produced for district Nowshera by using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bivariate Statistical Frequency Ratio (FR) models. This study analyses twelve Hydro-geomorphological flood conditioning factors selected based on the scale and characteristics of the study area. These factors include elevation, slope, distance from the river, rainfall, drainage density, land use land cover (LULC), topographic wetness index (TWI), height above nearest drainage (HAND), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the road, curvature, and soil type. The weighted factors were then integrated using the weighted overlay technique in ArcGIS 10.8 to produce flood susceptibility maps, which were classified into five zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low susceptibility. The AHP model classified 145.1 km<sup>2</sup> (8.34 %) and 252.2 km<sup>2</sup> (14.49 %) of the area as very high and high flood susceptibility zones, respectively. While the FR model classified 94.6 km<sup>2</sup> (5.4 %) as very high and 230.5 km<sup>2</sup> (13.2 %) as high susceptibility zones. The models' results were validated using Receiver Operation Characteristics (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) and collected flood inventory. The calculated AUC values were 0.921 for the AHP model and 0.924 for the FR model, corresponding to accuracy of 92.1 % and 92.4 %, respectively. Through this study, we gained a deeper understanding of how hydro-geomorphological factors interact to influence flood susceptibility, emphasizing the importance of integrating multi-criteria and statistical approaches for accurate flood risk mapping. Our methodology provides a transferable framework that can be applied in diverse geographical contexts, aiding in flood mitigation planning for both data-rich and data-scarce regions worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104831"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mid-latitude climatic oscillation during the late Ediacaran ice age 埃迪卡拉晚期冰河时期的中纬度气候振荡
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823
Jiajun Wang , Ruimin Wang , Zhe Qi , Shihao Fu , Gang Wang , Bing Shen
{"title":"Mid-latitude climatic oscillation during the late Ediacaran ice age","authors":"Jiajun Wang ,&nbsp;Ruimin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhe Qi ,&nbsp;Shihao Fu ,&nbsp;Gang Wang ,&nbsp;Bing Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The enigmatic Ediacaran ice age bridged the extreme Cryogenian Snowball Earth glaciations and the Cambrian Explosion, and witnessed the emergence of the Ediacara biota, the earliest complex macroscopic life forms in Earth's history. However, due to the lack of precise geochronological and paleomagnetic data, the temporal and spatial distributions of Ediacaran glaciations remain controversial. It is unclear whether it was episodic or continuous, and local or global. In this study, we present convincing sedimentological evidence showing the advance and retreat of Ediacaran glaciation based on the study of Talisayi Formation in the Guozigou section, northwestern China. The intercalated sandstone, siltstone, mudstone, and especially <sup>13</sup>C-enriched carbonates within the glacial deposits indicate that normal marine deposit and primary productivity persisted during the Ediacaran ice age. Furthermore, by compiling global Ediacaran glacial deposits, we identified five Ediacaran glacial depositions containing interglacial carbonate and three sections with multiple sets of glacial diamictite intercalated with normal marine deposition. These sedimentological observations argue episodic glacial wax and wane in low to mid latitude and bring up our hypothesize that the overlapping of glaciers zone and carbonate production zone during the Ediacaran ice age. The carbonate precipitation may either be the result of regional warming after glacial retreat or the consequence of high seawater alkalinity due to pervasive carbonate dissolution of glacier eroded or grinded carbonate platforms. Such climatic condition is consistent with the ‘Great Ediacaran ice age’ model, characterized by a continuous and mid-to-high-latitude glaciations. The prolonged Ediacaran ice age also implies an icehouse background for the evolution of Ediacaran biota and the emergence of early animals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104823"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming 未来气候变暖下青藏高原多年冻土区潜在植被绿度变化
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833
Rui Chen , Jan Nitzbon , Thomas Schneider von Deimling , Simone Maria Stuenzi , Ngai-Ham Chan , Julia Boike , Moritz Langer
{"title":"Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming","authors":"Rui Chen ,&nbsp;Jan Nitzbon ,&nbsp;Thomas Schneider von Deimling ,&nbsp;Simone Maria Stuenzi ,&nbsp;Ngai-Ham Chan ,&nbsp;Julia Boike ,&nbsp;Moritz Langer","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is well-documented and expected to continue throughout this century. However, the impact of thawing permafrost on the greenness, distribution, composition, and resilience of vegetation in this region is not well understood. In this study, we combined a transient numerical permafrost model with machine learning algorithms to project the near-future thermal state of permafrost and vegetation greenness (represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI]) changes under two contrasting climate pathways (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1–2.6 [SSP1–2.6] and SSP5–8.5). Furthermore, we quantified the contribution of climatic and terrestrial variables to vegetation greenness evolution. By 2100, permafrost areas were expected to decrease by 20 ± 1 %, and 49 ± 1 % under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the baseline period (2000–2018). Under the SSP1–2.6 scenarios, the mean annual ground temperature and active layer thickness were projected to experience stable fluctuations, while under the SSP5–8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend was anticipated. Satellite-based observations indicated an increasing trend of NDVI within the permafrost areas from 2000 to 2018 (0.01 per decade), mainly attributed to climatic factors. In the future, vegetation greenness in the permafrost areas is projected to increase under different climate scenarios, with varying degrees of change. This variation is primarily controlled by the surface air temperature, solar radiation and liquid water content at root zone during the growing season. Our modeling work provides a potential approach for investigating future vegetation greenness changes and offers more possibilities to improve understanding of the interaction between soil-vegetation-atmosphere in cold regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 104833"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hydroclimate change during the transition of mid-to late Holocene and its potential impacts on late Neolithic settlements in middle Yangtze Basin, Central-South China 中南扬子盆地中部全新世中晚过渡时期水文气候变化及其对新石器时代晚期聚落的潜在影响
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104834
Jian-Jun Yin , Zhijun Wang , Xia Wu , Wei Tang , Jianhong Li , Gaoyong Lan , Hai Cheng
{"title":"Hydroclimate change during the transition of mid-to late Holocene and its potential impacts on late Neolithic settlements in middle Yangtze Basin, Central-South China","authors":"Jian-Jun Yin ,&nbsp;Zhijun Wang ,&nbsp;Xia Wu ,&nbsp;Wei Tang ,&nbsp;Jianhong Li ,&nbsp;Gaoyong Lan ,&nbsp;Hai Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The history and spatial variations of hydroclimatic change in East Asia during the transition from the middle to late Holocene remain inadequately understood. Furthermore, the impacts of these hydroclimatic changes on ancient civilizations across various regions of eastern China have yet to be fully elucidated. In this study, we utilize precisely dated multi-proxy stalagmite records from Yuwang Cave to reveal the temporal and spatial variations of hydroclimate in central-south China during 6.0–4.0 ka BP, as well as to unravel potential impacts of these changes on the development of late Neolithic cultures in the middle Yangtze Basin. The records indicate that there was an increasing trend in stalagmite δ<sup>18</sup>O values from ∼6.0 ka BP to 4.0 ka BP, suggesting that an evident decline in summer monsoon intensity occurred. In contrast to δ<sup>18</sup>O, the δ<sup>13</sup>C values remained relatively stable during 6.0–4.5 ka BP but abruptly increased and sustained higher levels during 4.5–4.2 ka BP before experiencing a dramatic decrease with lower values during 4.2–4.0 ka BP; growth rates and Mg/Ca ratios exhibited synchronous changes alongside δ<sup>13</sup>C, indicating significant shifts in dry-wet conditions throughout central-south China during the transition of mid-to-late Holocene. Notably, the drier yet more stable climatic phase between 4.5 and 4.2 ka BP coincided closely with the flourishing of the Shijiahe Culture in the middle Yangtze Basin - providing new evidence that declining monsoonal rainfall may have facilitated the expansion of late Neolithic settlements in lowland areas of the Basin around the 4.2 ka event. Taking robust geological records from other parts of eastern China together, we found that the hydroclimatic pattern of eastern China during 4.5–4.2 ka BP did not conform to dipole nor tripole modes; rather it exhibited a more complex pattern characterized by “dry conditions prevailing in both middle-lower Yangtze Basin and North China, while the middle-lower Yellow River Basin alongside Southeastern China experienced wetness”. This precipitation pattern was probably associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon coupled with strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, positive Pacific decadal oscillation, and damped El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity with a La Niña-like state that occurred within the southeastern tropical Pacific</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104834"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming 极端火灾天气历史变化的全球评估:来自CMIP6集合的见解及其对全球变暖概率归因的影响
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822
Zhongwei Liu , Jonathan M. Eden , Bastien Dieppois , Igor Drobyshev , Folmer Krikken , Matthew Blackett
{"title":"Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming","authors":"Zhongwei Liu ,&nbsp;Jonathan M. Eden ,&nbsp;Bastien Dieppois ,&nbsp;Igor Drobyshev ,&nbsp;Folmer Krikken ,&nbsp;Matthew Blackett","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In response to the occurrence of several large wildfire events across the world in recent years, the question of the extent to which climate change may be altering the meteorological conditions conducive to wildfires has become a hot topic of debate. Despite the development of detection and attribution methodologies for climate change impact assessment in the last decade, studies dedicated explicitly to wildfire, or otherwise extreme ‘fire weather’, are still relatively few. Here, for the first time, a global probabilistic framework is developed to examine the extent to which externally forced changes in historical global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMSTA) affected the intensity and duration of fire-conducive weather extremes, defined by the Fire Weather Index (FWI). We use six climate model large ensembles (&gt;10 ensemble members) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to extract the forced response of GMSTA. After evaluating the performances of these climate models in simulating fire weather extremes, we examine changes in the probability of fire weather extremes using extreme value distributions, fitted with annual maxima in both FWI intensity and duration, and scaled to externally forced GMSTA. Global probability ratio maps are used to quantify the influence of rising global temperatures on the changing frequency and duration of FWI extremes, and highlight the sensitivity of estimates of historical changes in extreme fire weather to the climate model ensemble chosen for the analysis. A multi-model synthesis accounting for performance of each model confirms an increasing trend in the probability and duration of extreme fire weather linked to externally forced changes in GMSTA, with the largest increases found in southern North America, south-eastern Europe and parts of Australia. The results of the selective synthesis differ from those obtained via a conventional multi-model averaging that does not account for model performance, thereby demonstrating the value added by model evaluation and selection in maximising the robustness of probabilistic attribution studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 104822"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Weak enhancement of carbon fixation in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems by aerosol emissions during 1980–2014 with the Community Earth System Model 基于社区地球系统模型的1980-2014年气溶胶排放对北半球陆地生态系统固碳作用的微弱增强
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104827
Haiwei Zhang , Jia Song , Aiguo Zhang , Longhui Li
{"title":"Weak enhancement of carbon fixation in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems by aerosol emissions during 1980–2014 with the Community Earth System Model","authors":"Haiwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Jia Song ,&nbsp;Aiguo Zhang ,&nbsp;Longhui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of aerosols on carbon sequestration in sunlit and shaded leaves of vegetation cover are well understood; however, it is difficult to quantify these effects on gross primary productivity (GPP) with existing observational data. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to quantify the effects of aerosol emissions on the GPP of sunlit and shaded leaves in Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2014. The results revealed that aerosol emissions caused an increase of approximately 2.96 Pg C (approximately 4.8 %) in the cumulative GPP in the Northern Hemisphere. Carbon fixation from sunlit leaves (C.sun) contributed to a net increase of 3.33 Pg C, while carbon fixation from shaded leaves (C.sha) led to a net decrease of 0.37 Pg C from 1980 to 2014. The influence of aerosol emission changes on terrestrial GPP exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity after the 1980s, as carbon fixation from shaded leaves (25.8 %) contributed to an increase in GPP, whereas carbon fixation from sunlit leaves (38.6 %) led to a decrease in GPP. In addition, aerosol-induced vapour pressure deficit (VPD) dominated the changes in Northern Hemisphere GPP (42.5 %), while soil moisture (SM) and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR<sub>dif</sub>) were the most important climatic factors, accounting for approximately 33 % and 25.5 %, respectively. Our results indicate that the effects of VPD on GPP should be adequately considered when assessing ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104827"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143817231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020 ENSO加剧了复合干热事件对1961-2020年中国玉米产量的影响
IF 4 1区 地球科学
Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828
Xinying Wu , Dabang Jiang , Yang Yang
{"title":"ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020","authors":"Xinying Wu ,&nbsp;Dabang Jiang ,&nbsp;Yang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have become a leading risk to regional and global crop production. While numerous accounts of crop growth or yield response to climate extremes exist, impacts of CDHEs on crop yield are not well quantified, especially for that associated with large-scale modes of climate variabilities. Here we address this issue by using statistical maize yield data over China with a special focus on the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that over 1961–2020, CDHEs led to significant yield reduction by 4 %, while it was aggravated to 6 % by the concurrent ENSO. Mechanisms for this underscored the role of ENSO in modulating CDHE characteristics wherein land–atmosphere feedbacks significantly contributed to yield loss. Compared to early stage of growth, ENSO in conjunction with compound events triggered more substantial maize yield losses during the late stage. Furthermore, this amplified risk was observed to intensify in recent decades. Note that agronomic practices, like irrigation, could significantly offset these negative impacts on maize yield. These findings highlight the great threat of CDHEs to maize yield as well as the key role of ENSO in driving this process, and may offer insights for yield prediction and agricultural management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104828"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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