Global and Planetary Change最新文献

{"title":"Ignoring previous water conditions underestimates global terrestrial ecosystem productivity in severely arid vegetation regions","authors":"Jingyu Zeng ,&nbsp;Tao Zhou ,&nbsp;E. Tan ,&nbsp;Ying Yu ,&nbsp;Yajie Zhang ,&nbsp;Xuemei Wu ,&nbsp;Jingzhou Zhang ,&nbsp;Yancheng Qu ,&nbsp;Qi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global climate change, changes in water conditions significantly affect the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the impact of previous water conditions has not received sufficient attention. Using machine learning and a large amount of global ground observation data, we evaluated the impact of previous water conditions at various time scales on global productivity estimation through paired experiments and residual comparison methods. By incorporating run theory, we investigated the uncertainty introduced by neglecting previous water conditions in estimating ecosystem productivity across various levels of vegetation drought frequency, intensity, duration, and severity. We found that 36.8 % of global net primary productivity (NPP) is predominantly influenced by water conditions over the previous 24 months, a percentage higher than those observed at 6, 12, and 18-month time. Considering previous water conditions, the estimated global productivity was 66.72 Pg C yr⁻¹ (468.98 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). Neglecting previous water conditions may lead to an underestimation of global productivity by up to 1.27 Pg C(<em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). Regions experiencing severe, prolonged, and intense drought may have significant NPP estimation biases without considering previous water conditions. This study provides an important step toward understanding the impact of previous water conditions and vegetation drought disasters on the carbon sink function of global terrestrial ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 104799"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143681591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Error estimation and data fusion of root zone soil moisture products over China based on the three corned hat method","authors":"Jing Tian,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Root zone soil moisture (RZSM) plays a critical role in numerous ecological and environmental processes and holds significant importance for agriculture, hydrology, and climate studies. Although it can be estimated by hydrology or land surface models, the accuracy of such estimations is often limited. Data fusion offers a promising approach to improving RZSM estimation accuracy, yet few studies have explored this avenue. In our study, we address this gap by providing error estimation and data fusion for five RZSM datasets (ERA5-Land, MERRA2, CFSR, SMAP, GLDAS_NOAH2.1 (NOAH)) using the Three Cornered Hat (TCH) method. We evaluated the performance of the TCH method in assessing RZSM data products and in RZSM merging. Our results demonstrate that the TCH method accurately assesses the performance of RZSM products as validated against in situ measurements. Both in situ-based RMSE and TCH-based uncertainties reveal that MERRA2 and NOAH exhibit the best performance, followed by SMAP, CFSR and ERA5, with uncertainty medians of 0.019, 0.0187, 0.023, 0.021 and 0.028 (m³/m³), respectively. Comparisons of the accuracy for the TCH merged result and the individual RZSM product indicate that the merged result outperforms each individual product. The percentages of RMSE differences between the TCH merged result and the individual products less than −0.005 are 60.8 %, 62.3 %, 36.8 %, 41.7 %, and 51.2 % for CFSR, ERA5-Land, MERRA2, NOAH, and SMAP, respectively. These are significantly higher than the percentages of RMSE differences greater than 0.005. Given the TCH method's independence from in situ measurements, it is a promising option for RZSM data fusion. Overall, our study underscores the potential of the TCH method in evaluating RZSM products and performing data fusion to enhance RZSM estimation accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104797"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global potential for regime shifts among shrubland, grassland, and forest","authors":"Zhuoran Qu ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Li ,&nbsp;Sha Zhou ,&nbsp;Yuanhong Deng ,&nbsp;Chao Yang ,&nbsp;Fangzhong Shi ,&nbsp;Linhai Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grassland, shrubland and forest can form alternative biome states (ABSs), and regime shifts among them usually lead to abrupt alterations in ecosystem structure and function that are critical to environmental health and human well-being. However, the fragmented understanding of their distribution patterns and ABS relationships, particularly concerning shrublands, has seriously impaired our capacity to predict catastrophic regime shifts. Based on 1 km resolution data and conditional potential analysis method, we investigated global distribution patterns of grasslands, shrublands, and forests, identified areas with ABS, and further evaluated vegetation susceptibilities to regime shifts. The results revealed a shrubland-grassland-forest transition pattern of dominant vegetation from arid to humid regions. Under certain precipitation conditions, ABSs were formed, with Asia accounting for the widest spatial extent and Africa covering the widest precipitation range. The susceptibility to regime shifts was mapped in areas with ABSs, which suggested that many forests across the globe were vulnerable to be replaced by grasslands. Future climate change was projected to increase the risk of forest loss in Africa and Europe as well as shrubland degradation globally. It is worth noting that 77 % and 80 % of resilience at ABS points was projected to decline under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, warning of an overall increase in the risk of regime shifts in the future. These findings contribute to understanding the potential vulnerability of vegetation to changing environment, and can provide significant information for adaptive ecosystem management strategies to mitigate or avoid the enormous costs of catastrophic shifts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 104798"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oceanic Ba removal improved marine habitability for the oldest-known animals at ca. 600 Ma","authors":"Peishan Sui ,&nbsp;Wei Wei ,&nbsp;Shao-Bing Zhang ,&nbsp;Yan-Yan Zhao ,&nbsp;Fang Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The early Ediacaran witnessed the rise of complex macroscopic eukaryotes in the ecosystem including the naissance of metazoans, which may have been triggered by the Neoproterozoic Oxygenation Event. However, <em>local</em> anoxia and/or euxinia likely persisted and dominated in deep waters and restricted environments during this period. Whether and how marine redox changes were related to this evolutionary event remains elusive. In this study, we present Fe speciation, Ba contents, and Ba isotope compositions of black shales from the Lantian Formation on the lower Yangtze Block, which preserved the oldest-known macroscopic fossil assemblage of morphologically differentiated algae and animal affinities. The Fe speciation data show that the Lantian black shales were mainly deposited in ferruginous and euxinic environments. However, the considerable Ba enrichments relative to the upper continental crust suggest that the oceanic sulfate was surplus after the microbial sulfate reduction to remove dissolved Ba from the <em>locally</em> ferruginous/euxinic deep seawater as barite. The Ba isotope data reflect a major drawdown of dissolved Ba reservoir by barite precipitation in response to oceanic sulfate increase on a <em>global</em> scale. Since high levels of dissolved Ba are deleterious to marine organisms, we propose that the removal of toxic Ba, corresponding to increase in oceanic sulfate concentration (oceanic oxygenation), could have promoted marine habitability for the diversification of macroscopic eukaryotic algae and the appearance of early animals during the early Ediacaran. Additionally, this study demonstrates that the Ba isotope system can serve as a novel tool to estimate <em>global</em> oceanic sulfate concentration (oxygenation extent).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104790"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sea-level fingerprinting technique: A window into meltwater pulse 1 A and constraints from Antarctica","authors":"Waseem Ahmad Baba,&nbsp;Jitendra Kumar Pattanaik","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A global event known as Meltwater Pulse 1 A (MWP-1 A) during the last deglaciation contributed to sea level rise by 10 % in just over 0.3 ka. Different methods are being adopted to understand the source of meltwater pulses. This article provides a review of the sea-level fingerprinting technique and its application in understanding meltwater pulses with a specific focus on MWP-1 A. Sea level fingerprinting involves comparing melting scenarios to sea-level records to identify the sources of meltwater. The analysis reveals that a significant contribution from Antarctica results in larger sea-level spikes at multiple locations, while a single North American source would lead to larger spikes at specific locations. The technique takes into account factors such as glacio-geological evidence, ice-sheet changes, and Earth's visco-elastic rebound. However, the lack of precise field data limits the ability to fully constrain the source of meltwater pulses. Evidences from Antarctica suggest that while the ice sheet played a critical role in MWP-1 A, its precise contribution remains uncertain due to the complexity of ice dynamics. Deep sea sediment records, glacio-geological data and ice-core investigations indicate episodic ice-sheet collapse, particularly in marine-based sectors such as the Weddell Sea. Recent advancements in numerical modelling and geophysical reconstructions have improved our understanding of Antarctic contributions; however, significant uncertainties remain. This review highlights the need for further integration of high-resolution sediment core data, improved ice-sheet modelling, and expanded geographic coverage of fingerprinting sites to refine the estimates of MWP-1 A contributions. The insights gained from understanding past rapid sea-level rise events are crucial for predicting future sea-level changes in response to ongoing global warming and ice-sheet instability. Furthermore, these findings have significant implications for policy-making, as understanding ice-sheet dynamics and their impact on global sea levels is essential for developing effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104793"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Neoproterozoic climate and biogeochemical evolution in the SCION model","authors":"Benjamin J.W. Mills ,&nbsp;Guillaume le Hir ,&nbsp;Andrew Merdith ,&nbsp;Khushboo Gurung ,&nbsp;Fred T. Bowyer ,&nbsp;Alexander J. Krause ,&nbsp;Patricia Sanchez-Baracaldo ,&nbsp;Stephen J. Hunter ,&nbsp;Yinggang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Neoproterozoic Era (1000–539 Ma) saw extreme changes in climate and biogeochemical cycles, but the drivers of these changes remain poorly understood. In this paper, we extend the Spatial Continuous Integration (SCION) global climate-biogeochemical model beyond the Phanerozoic and into the Neoproterozoic using a set of GCM simulations to update the model's climate emulator and a plate tectonic model to estimate tectonic input fluxes. We use the model to explore to what degree changes in paleogeography and degassing rates—which are key drivers of Phanerozoic climate—can explain the broad pattern of Neoproterozoic environmental change. We find that while the known Neoproterozoic climate changes are generally within the model uncertainty envelope, and the model predicts cooling between the later Tonian and Earliest Cryogenian, we do not reproduce a clear greenhouse to icehouse transition here, or any long-term increases in atmospheric oxygen levels before the Ediacaran. Several key model limitations currently prevent it from testing these ideas in more detail and should be improved in future work. These include: dynamic continental lithology, climate simulations which include dynamic continental ice sheets, a more comprehensive estimate of degassing rates, a better representation of the evolution of primary producer groups (i.e. planktonic cyanobacteria and green algae) and the spatial structure of marine biogeochemistry, and a dynamic calcium cycle. We anticipate that these can all be tested in the future within the SCION framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104791"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental conditions controlling cold-water coral growth in the southern Alboran Sea since the last deglaciation","authors":"Mar Selvaggi ,&nbsp;Maria de la Fuente ,&nbsp;José N. Pérez-Asensio ,&nbsp;Claudio Lo Iacono ,&nbsp;Albert Català ,&nbsp;Sergio Trias-Navarro ,&nbsp;Guillem Corbera ,&nbsp;Sara Campderrós ,&nbsp;Negar Haghipour ,&nbsp;Letizia Di Bella ,&nbsp;David Van Rooij ,&nbsp;Isabel Cacho","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cold-water coral (CWC) mounds are commonly found in the Alboran Sea (westernmost Mediterranean), specifically in the so-called East and West Melilla mound provinces. This study presents a multi-proxy analysis on the environmental changes that occurred in west Melilla since the last deglaciation (∼14 kyr), based on the on-mound core MD13–3451 (∼370 m). The analyses performed include geochemical measurements of foraminiferal coatings (U/Mn) and skeletal calcite (stable oxygen and carbon isotopes, Mg/Ca-derived deep-water temperatures). Furthermore, the seawater δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_sw) and the ice-volume-corrected seawater δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_sw-ivc) have been estimated via paired analyses of Mg/Ca and δ¹⁸O_carbonate. Our findings suggest that i) pulses of relatively warm deep-water during the last mound flourishing stage, here-referred to as ‘Cold Water Coral - Growth Phase 1’ (CWC-GP1; ∼11–9 kyr), triggered a shift in coral species dominance in the west Melilla province, and ii) a rapid freshening of the waters occurred during CWC-GP1, indicating significant hydrographical changes. To further interpret these results, we combined them with comparable records from neighboring sites. We find that CWC-GP1 is closely coupled with a reorganization of the Alboran Sea water column. More precisely, we discuss the potential emergence of a western Mediterranean intermediate sourced water, which partly replaced intermediate waters from eastern Mediterranean sources and contributed to the enhanced hydrodynamics of the region. We further propose that the interplay between strong near-bottom currents and increased upwelling conditions may have played a crucial role in controlling CWC growth dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104792"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monsoon variability and high latitude climate signals in the central Mediterranean at the Pliocene – Pleistocene transition: the Gelasian stratotype section (Monte San Nicola, Sicily)","authors":"Marina Addante ,&nbsp;Timothy D. Herbert ,&nbsp;Angela Girone ,&nbsp;Antonio Caruso ,&nbsp;Maria Marino ,&nbsp;Giovanna Scopelliti ,&nbsp;Stefano Fasone ,&nbsp;Patrizia Maiorano","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An integrated high-resolution climate framework is reconstructed at the Monte San Nicola GSSP section (Southern Sicily), the type-section for the Lower Pleistocene Gelasian Stage. Our multiproxy record is based on planktonic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotopes, alkenones and calcareous plankton assemblages, focusing on the interval between ∼2.7 and 2.5 Ma, which includes the Gelasian GSSP. Calcium carbonate content and sediment colour analyses are used to integrate lithological field observations. We provide the first high-resolution Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature (°C) record, between MIS G4 and the onset of MIS 99 in the Monte San Nicola type-section and extend the calcareous plankton and oxygen isotope dataset published in a previous paper. The results enable to: i) highlight modifications in surface water dynamics related to African monsoon activity and North Atlantic climate variability; ii) strengthen the evidence that the first significant southward migration of the Subarctic Front in the mid-latitudes occurred during MIS 104, slightly below the GSSP, concomitant with strengthening of the winter monsoon over the Chinese loess plateau; iii) reveal the occurrence of millennial-scale variability during glacials, correlated to North Atlantic Ice Rafted Debris events within MIS 104 and MIS 100. The results provide evidence that the paleoclimate and stratigraphic signals are very well preserved in the type-section and further improve the correlation potential of the GSSP outside the type-area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104788"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143642412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local summer insolation modulated Southern Ocean productivity and Antarctic icesheet evolution since MIS 5","authors":"Yihao Hu ,&nbsp;Thomas J. Algeo ,&nbsp;Tong Wang ,&nbsp;Jingteng Guo ,&nbsp;Zhifang Xiong ,&nbsp;Tiegang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relationship of marine productivity in the Southern Ocean (SO) to dynamics of the Antarctic icesheet (AIS) since the Late Pleistocene remains uncertain. Here, we investigated Late Pleistocene variation in productivity in the Antarctic Zone of the SO, and the response of the AIS to various potential forcing mechanisms. We analyzed secular variation in multiple biogenic components and ice-rafted debris (IRD) of a sediment core (ANT34/D5–12) from the Atlantic sector of the SO. Productivity, as tracked by the fluxes of excess Ba and opal, was controlled mainly by local mean summer insolation, which also modulated icesheet dynamics, as revealed by IRD. These records nonetheless show distinct precessional variability (∼20 kyr cycle) related to austral summer insolation. During high (low) insolation intervals, productivity was high (low), and the AIS contracted (expanded). Based on these data and published paleoclimate records, we propose that marine productivity and icesheet dynamics during the Late Pleistocene were primarily controlled by local Antarctic summer mean insolation through regulation of water-column stratification depth. These findings support hypotheses for the independent evolution of Antarctic climate (i.e., not paced by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation) and provide new insights into biogeochemical cycling in the SO and AIS dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104789"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143627844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Summer amplification of interannual variability changes in surface air temperature during the last interglacial period","authors":"Jiawen Shi ,&nbsp;Zhiping Tian ,&nbsp;Xianmei Lang ,&nbsp;Dabang Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Temperature variability refers to temperature fluctuations around the mean state, which closely connects with the probability of extreme events. Examining temperature variability during past warm periods in Earth's history is essential for elucidating its future trends. We quantitatively analyze the interannual variability changes in near-surface air temperature and associated mechanisms during the last interglacial period (LIG, ∼127 ka) using the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) models. Relative to the preindustrial period, the LIG interannual variability of temperature increases slightly at the global scale. Summertime variability varies more dramatically at the regional scale, especially in high latitudes, East Asia, and North Africa, where it increases by more than 15 % in comparison to small changes for the winter and annual mean. In high-latitude oceans, radiation fluxes notably contribute to temperature variability change due to sea ice melting. Cloudiness changes dominate enhanced summer temperature variability in East Asia and both tropical land and oceans, while net surface heat flux and atmospheric energy convergence minus storage (CONV) influence other land regions. Additionally, CONV plays a larger role in the mid-to-high latitudes during winter than during summer. In low-latitude oceans, the distribution of temperature variability change is shaped by the mutual compensation between net surface heat flux and CONV. Simulated temperature variability changes generally agree with proxy data, although discrepancies exist in North Asia, East Asia, North Africa, North America, and South America.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"249 ","pages":"Article 104787"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143601653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}