Global and Planetary Change最新文献

{"title":"Holocene sea level variations drive formation of a coral atoll in southern South China Sea","authors":"Wanqiu Zhou ,&nbsp;Gang Li ,&nbsp;Yun Luo ,&nbsp;Wen Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coral reef islands are highly vulnerable habitats to global warming. The projection of future coral reef evolution is challenging due to insufficient sedimentary records. In the southern South China Sea (SCS), numerous coral islands require a thorough understanding of their Holocene depositional history to inform predictive models. This study addresses this gap by determining the depositional history of Meiji Atoll through a detailed analysis of grain size and biological components from a new borehole, Well NK-1. Our results reveal that Unit 1 and Unit 4 with abundant corals and coralline algae, larger mean grain sizes and poor sorting, were classified as sand-apron facies. Unit 2, dominated by <em>Halimeda</em>, exhibits finer grains and the poorest sorting, suggesting deeper, more stagnant hydrodynamic conditions and lagoon expansion. Unit 3 and Unit 5 also contain abundant corals and coralline algae as well as more broken coral branches, showing reef flat facies with water depth under 1 m. Additionally, the coral reef's vertical growth accelerated when the Pleistocene surface was submerged by rising sea level approximately 8200 years before present (yr BP). This increase in vertical accretion was primarily driven by 8.2 ka and 7.5 ka meltwater pulses. However, a sea-level decline at 4800 yr BP triggered a shift from vertical accretion to lateral expansion, significantly impacting the island's geomorphology. These findings enhance our understanding of how reef deposition responded to sea-level changes during the Holocene, improving predictive models for the future of low-lying coral islands in the South China Sea and other tropical regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104835"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of pollen-based Holocene precipitation variations in the Altai Mountains and the surrounding areas","authors":"Yangyang Zhang ,&nbsp;Dongliang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The existing depictions of Holocene moisture variations in the Altai Mountains and the surrounding areas (i.e., the examined area) remain controversial. This study quantitatively reconstructed 16 mean annual precipitation (Pann) sequences from available fossil pollen datasets (3 sequences of our own and 13 sequences from external datasets) and combined them with 13 already available Pann sequences to depict the spatiotemporal patterns of the Holocene precipitation variations in the examined area. This resulting analysis reveals a general upward trend in Pann during the Holocene in the southern Altai Mountains and the immediate upper-wind region (e.g., southern Siberian Plain and eastern Kazakhstan Hills). This rising trend might be causally linked to the concurrent rising trend in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the long-term weakening trend of the cool airmass over southwestern Siberia. In contrast, the eastern Russian Altai and Sayan Mountains, situated on the leeside of the Altai Mountains, experienced a consistent decline in Pann since ∼9000 cal. yr BP. And, this decline was probably a combined result of the temperature anomalies in the middle-high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere and the SST in the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean. The Holocene Pann in the lowlands to the south of the Altai Mountains displayed a rise from ∼10,500 to ∼6000 cal. yr BP, a U-shaped trough from ∼6000 to ∼3500 cal. yr BP, and a slight decline afterward. This pattern was most likely associated with the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean before ∼5000 cal. yr BP and with the SST in the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean after ∼5000 cal. yr BP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104832"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing susceptibility of vegetation productivity to compound drought from 2001 to 2020","authors":"Jiwang Tang ,&nbsp;Ben Niu ,&nbsp;Zhigang Hu ,&nbsp;Gang Fu ,&nbsp;Xianzhou Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The atmospheric and soil droughts have exerted substantial effects on vegetation productivity, and generally occur simultaneously due to land-atmospheric feedback. However, the temporal changes in vegetation response to soil droughts, atmospheric droughts, and their compound droughts remain largely unknown. Using vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and two vegetation indexes including the leaf area index (LAI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), here we quantified the vegetation susceptibility to these three drought types via coincidence analysis and evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of them. Spatially, we found most of global vegetated areas (63.8 %) were more susceptible to compound droughts, with the higher vegetation susceptibility to them in the areas with less tree cover and more arid climate, respectively. Temporally, we revealed a predominated increasing trend (0.0027 year⁻¹ for LAI and 0.0023 year⁻¹ for SIF, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.05) in vegetation susceptibility to compound droughts over drought-susceptible regions during 2001–2020. Our finding highlighted an increasing ecosystem vulnerability to compound droughts, which could pose more threats on the stability of land carbon sink under future climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104826"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood susceptibility assessment and mapping using GIS-based analytical hierarchy process and frequency ratio models","authors":"Saad Ashfaq ,&nbsp;Muhammad Tufail ,&nbsp;Asif Niaz ,&nbsp;Sher Muhammad ,&nbsp;Hassan Alzahrani ,&nbsp;Aqil Tariq","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, flood susceptibility maps were produced for district Nowshera by using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bivariate Statistical Frequency Ratio (FR) models. This study analyses twelve Hydro-geomorphological flood conditioning factors selected based on the scale and characteristics of the study area. These factors include elevation, slope, distance from the river, rainfall, drainage density, land use land cover (LULC), topographic wetness index (TWI), height above nearest drainage (HAND), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the road, curvature, and soil type. The weighted factors were then integrated using the weighted overlay technique in ArcGIS 10.8 to produce flood susceptibility maps, which were classified into five zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low susceptibility. The AHP model classified 145.1 km² (8.34 %) and 252.2 km² (14.49 %) of the area as very high and high flood susceptibility zones, respectively. While the FR model classified 94.6 km² (5.4 %) as very high and 230.5 km² (13.2 %) as high susceptibility zones. The models' results were validated using Receiver Operation Characteristics (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) and collected flood inventory. The calculated AUC values were 0.921 for the AHP model and 0.924 for the FR model, corresponding to accuracy of 92.1 % and 92.4 %, respectively. Through this study, we gained a deeper understanding of how hydro-geomorphological factors interact to influence flood susceptibility, emphasizing the importance of integrating multi-criteria and statistical approaches for accurate flood risk mapping. Our methodology provides a transferable framework that can be applied in diverse geographical contexts, aiding in flood mitigation planning for both data-rich and data-scarce regions worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104831"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mid-latitude climatic oscillation during the late Ediacaran ice age","authors":"Jiajun Wang ,&nbsp;Ruimin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhe Qi ,&nbsp;Shihao Fu ,&nbsp;Gang Wang ,&nbsp;Bing Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The enigmatic Ediacaran ice age bridged the extreme Cryogenian Snowball Earth glaciations and the Cambrian Explosion, and witnessed the emergence of the Ediacara biota, the earliest complex macroscopic life forms in Earth's history. However, due to the lack of precise geochronological and paleomagnetic data, the temporal and spatial distributions of Ediacaran glaciations remain controversial. It is unclear whether it was episodic or continuous, and local or global. In this study, we present convincing sedimentological evidence showing the advance and retreat of Ediacaran glaciation based on the study of Talisayi Formation in the Guozigou section, northwestern China. The intercalated sandstone, siltstone, mudstone, and especially ¹³C-enriched carbonates within the glacial deposits indicate that normal marine deposit and primary productivity persisted during the Ediacaran ice age. Furthermore, by compiling global Ediacaran glacial deposits, we identified five Ediacaran glacial depositions containing interglacial carbonate and three sections with multiple sets of glacial diamictite intercalated with normal marine deposition. These sedimentological observations argue episodic glacial wax and wane in low to mid latitude and bring up our hypothesize that the overlapping of glaciers zone and carbonate production zone during the Ediacaran ice age. The carbonate precipitation may either be the result of regional warming after glacial retreat or the consequence of high seawater alkalinity due to pervasive carbonate dissolution of glacier eroded or grinded carbonate platforms. Such climatic condition is consistent with the ‘Great Ediacaran ice age’ model, characterized by a continuous and mid-to-high-latitude glaciations. The prolonged Ediacaran ice age also implies an icehouse background for the evolution of Ediacaran biota and the emergence of early animals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104823"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hydroclimate change during the transition of mid-to late Holocene and its potential impacts on late Neolithic settlements in middle Yangtze Basin, Central-South China","authors":"Jian-Jun Yin ,&nbsp;Zhijun Wang ,&nbsp;Xia Wu ,&nbsp;Wei Tang ,&nbsp;Jianhong Li ,&nbsp;Gaoyong Lan ,&nbsp;Hai Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The history and spatial variations of hydroclimatic change in East Asia during the transition from the middle to late Holocene remain inadequately understood. Furthermore, the impacts of these hydroclimatic changes on ancient civilizations across various regions of eastern China have yet to be fully elucidated. In this study, we utilize precisely dated multi-proxy stalagmite records from Yuwang Cave to reveal the temporal and spatial variations of hydroclimate in central-south China during 6.0–4.0 ka BP, as well as to unravel potential impacts of these changes on the development of late Neolithic cultures in the middle Yangtze Basin. The records indicate that there was an increasing trend in stalagmite δ¹⁸O values from ∼6.0 ka BP to 4.0 ka BP, suggesting that an evident decline in summer monsoon intensity occurred. In contrast to δ¹⁸O, the δ¹³C values remained relatively stable during 6.0–4.5 ka BP but abruptly increased and sustained higher levels during 4.5–4.2 ka BP before experiencing a dramatic decrease with lower values during 4.2–4.0 ka BP; growth rates and Mg/Ca ratios exhibited synchronous changes alongside δ¹³C, indicating significant shifts in dry-wet conditions throughout central-south China during the transition of mid-to-late Holocene. Notably, the drier yet more stable climatic phase between 4.5 and 4.2 ka BP coincided closely with the flourishing of the Shijiahe Culture in the middle Yangtze Basin - providing new evidence that declining monsoonal rainfall may have facilitated the expansion of late Neolithic settlements in lowland areas of the Basin around the 4.2 ka event. Taking robust geological records from other parts of eastern China together, we found that the hydroclimatic pattern of eastern China during 4.5–4.2 ka BP did not conform to dipole nor tripole modes; rather it exhibited a more complex pattern characterized by “dry conditions prevailing in both middle-lower Yangtze Basin and North China, while the middle-lower Yellow River Basin alongside Southeastern China experienced wetness”. This precipitation pattern was probably associated with the weakened East Asian summer monsoon coupled with strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, positive Pacific decadal oscillation, and damped El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity with a La Niña-like state that occurred within the southeastern tropical Pacific</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104834"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weak enhancement of carbon fixation in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems by aerosol emissions during 1980–2014 with the Community Earth System Model","authors":"Haiwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Jia Song ,&nbsp;Aiguo Zhang ,&nbsp;Longhui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of aerosols on carbon sequestration in sunlit and shaded leaves of vegetation cover are well understood; however, it is difficult to quantify these effects on gross primary productivity (GPP) with existing observational data. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to quantify the effects of aerosol emissions on the GPP of sunlit and shaded leaves in Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2014. The results revealed that aerosol emissions caused an increase of approximately 2.96 Pg C (approximately 4.8 %) in the cumulative GPP in the Northern Hemisphere. Carbon fixation from sunlit leaves (C.sun) contributed to a net increase of 3.33 Pg C, while carbon fixation from shaded leaves (C.sha) led to a net decrease of 0.37 Pg C from 1980 to 2014. The influence of aerosol emission changes on terrestrial GPP exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity after the 1980s, as carbon fixation from shaded leaves (25.8 %) contributed to an increase in GPP, whereas carbon fixation from sunlit leaves (38.6 %) led to a decrease in GPP. In addition, aerosol-induced vapour pressure deficit (VPD) dominated the changes in Northern Hemisphere GPP (42.5 %), while soil moisture (SM) and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR_dif) were the most important climatic factors, accounting for approximately 33 % and 25.5 %, respectively. Our results indicate that the effects of VPD on GPP should be adequately considered when assessing ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104827"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143817231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020","authors":"Xinying Wu ,&nbsp;Dabang Jiang ,&nbsp;Yang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have become a leading risk to regional and global crop production. While numerous accounts of crop growth or yield response to climate extremes exist, impacts of CDHEs on crop yield are not well quantified, especially for that associated with large-scale modes of climate variabilities. Here we address this issue by using statistical maize yield data over China with a special focus on the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that over 1961–2020, CDHEs led to significant yield reduction by 4 %, while it was aggravated to 6 % by the concurrent ENSO. Mechanisms for this underscored the role of ENSO in modulating CDHE characteristics wherein land–atmosphere feedbacks significantly contributed to yield loss. Compared to early stage of growth, ENSO in conjunction with compound events triggered more substantial maize yield losses during the late stage. Furthermore, this amplified risk was observed to intensify in recent decades. Note that agronomic practices, like irrigation, could significantly offset these negative impacts on maize yield. These findings highlight the great threat of CDHEs to maize yield as well as the key role of ENSO in driving this process, and may offer insights for yield prediction and agricultural management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104828"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143824037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent vegetation greening's direct impacts on land-atmosphere water and carbon exchanges in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Yiwen Luo ,&nbsp;Ning Ma ,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Changes in vegetation have pronounced effects on water and carbon cycles. In the past few decades with significant warming, vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has become overall greening, particularly in its northeastern part. However, the effects of these changes on land-atmosphere water and carbon exchanges in the TP remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a water‑carbon coupled model, Penman-Monteith-Leuning Version 2, to quantify the direct impacts of vegetation change on evapotranspiration (<em>ET</em>) and gross primary production (<em>GPP</em>) in the Yellow River Source (YRS) region, a greening hotspot in the northeastern TP. We show that <em>ET</em> and <em>GPP</em> in the YRS increased significantly from 1982 to 2018, with trends of 1.72 ± 0.21 mm yr⁻² and 3.96 ± 0.55 gC m⁻² yr⁻² (both <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), respectively. The change in leaf area index (LAI) was the dominant driver of <em>GPP</em>'s increase, contributing 79 %, followed by atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the climatic factors. However, vegetation greening had a limited impact (11 %) on <em>ET</em> since the increases in plant transpiration (<em>E</em>_<em>c</em>) and canopy evaporation (<em>E</em>_<em>i</em>) were largely offset by the decline in soil evaporation (<em>E</em>_<em>s</em>). Instead, the climatic factors contributed most (72 %) to <em>ET</em> change over the past 37 years. Nevertheless, vegetation changes played a key role in altering <em>ET</em> components, with LAI contributing nearly 40 % to trends in <em>E</em>_<em>s</em> and <em>E</em>_<em>c</em>, and over 70 % to the <em>E</em>_<em>i</em> trend over the past 37 years. Our results highlight the distinct roles that vegetation plays in regulating land-atmosphere water and carbon exchanges at high altitudes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104825"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Refining paleoelevation estimates of the European Alps by simulating Middle Miocene climate and δ18O responses to diachronous surface uplift scenarios","authors":"Daniel Boateng ,&nbsp;Sebastian G. Mutz ,&nbsp;Katharina Methner ,&nbsp;Armelle Ballian ,&nbsp;Maud J.M. Meijers ,&nbsp;Andreas Mulch ,&nbsp;Todd A. Ehlers","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104808","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimates of past surface elevations are essential for understanding the evolution of the Earth's physiography and biodiversity distribution. Stable isotope paleoaltimetry is widely used to infer paleoelevation due to a robust systematic inverse relationship between elevation and isotopic composition (<span><math><msup><mi>δ</mi><mn>18</mn></msup><mi>O</mi></math></span>, <span><math><mi>δD</mi></math></span>) of meteoric waters (i.e., isotopic lapse rate). The difference in <span><math><msup><mi>δ</mi><mn>18</mn></msup><mi>O</mi></math></span> of paleo-meteoric water reconstructed from coeval proxy materials between adjacent low- and high-elevation sites (<span><math><mi>Δ</mi><msup><mi>δ</mi><mn>18</mn></msup><msub><mi>O</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></math></span>) is transformed into paleoelevation changes using such isotopic lapse rates (<span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span>-<span><math><mi>δ</mi></math></span> approach). Most often, the isotopic lapse rate is assumed to be stationary through time and space and, therefore, relies on modern estimates to constrain paleoelevation changes. This study employs model-based sensitivity analysis to assess the spatio-temporal variability of the isotopic lapse rate of the European Alps and to quantify the magnitude of uncertainties in paleoelevation estimates associated with the use of modern isotopic lapse rates. We use the high-resolution isotope-tracking climate model to simulate the <span><math><msup><mi>δ</mi><mn>18</mn></msup><mi>O</mi></math></span> in precipitation (<span><math><msup><mi>δ</mi><mn>18</mn></msup><msub><mi>O</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></math></span>) response to Middle Miocene conditions (e.g., atmospheric CO2, palaeogeography) and diachronous west-to-east surface uplift propagating along the Alpine orogen. The simulated isotopic lapse rates become shallower by <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>1.0 ‰ km⁻¹ in response to Middle Miocene conditions compared to the Pre-Industrial period and vary within the range of <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span>1.5 ‰ km⁻¹ for the diachronous surface uplift scenarios of the Alps. Applying the simulated isotopic lapse rates to Miocene <span><math><mi>Δ</mi><msup><mi>δ</mi><mn>18</mn></msup><msub><mi>O</mi><mi>p</mi></msub></math></span> proxy reconstructions suggests an overestimation of Central Alps paleoelevation by <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>1.5 km when using modern rainfall-based isotopic lapse rate across the Alps. However, the simulated Miocene isotopic lapse rates estimate aligns more closely with modern global river-based lapse rates, suggesting they are more suitable than rainfall-based estimates when a paleoclimate-constrained isotopic lapse rate is unavailable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104808"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143847970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}