Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics最新文献_第2页

Natural Sinks and Sources of CO2 and CH4 in the Atmosphere of Russian Regions and Their Contribution to Climate Change in the 21st Century Evaluated with the CMIP6 Model Ensemble 利用 CMIP6 模型集合评估俄罗斯地区大气中二氧化碳和甲烷的自然汇和源及其对 21 世纪气候变化的贡献

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700142

S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov

{"title":"Natural Sinks and Sources of CO2 and CH4 in the Atmosphere of Russian Regions and Their Contribution to Climate Change in the 21st Century Evaluated with the CMIP6 Model Ensemble","authors":"S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov","doi":"10.1134/s0001433824700142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s0001433824700142","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>The natural fluxes of CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia in the 21st century have been analyzed using the results of simulations with the ensemble of global climate models of the international CMIP6 project. Estimates of natural CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in Russian regions differ greatly for different models. Their values for the beginning of the 21st century range from –1 to 1 GtC/year. In the 21st century, the differences in model estimates of fluxes are growing, and, at the end of the 21st century, in the scenario with the largest anthropogenic impacts, SSP5-8.5 range from –2.5 to 2.5 GtC/year. Estimates of natural methane emissions to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia also differ greatly for different models. Modern methane emissions are estimated in the range from 10 to 35 MtCH<sub>4</sub>/year, with an increase in the 21st century of up to 300%. Ensemble model simulations show general trends for changes in natural greenhouse gas fluxes. Most CMIP6 models are characterized by a maximum of CO<sub>2</sub> uptake by terrestrial ecosystems and its further reduction by the end of the 21st century, while natural methane emissions to the atmosphere for all models and scenarios of anthropogenic impacts grow throughout the 21st century. The cumulative temperature potential of natural CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes on the territory of Russia in the 21st century is estimated, depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impacts, to be from –0.3 to 0.1 K, and the accelerating warming impact of natural CH<sub>4</sub> emissions is estimated in the range of 0.03–0.09 K.</p>","PeriodicalId":54911,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141524497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bayesian Estimates of Changes in Russian River Runoff in the 21st Century Based on the CMIP6 Ensemble Model Simulations 基于 CMIP6 集合模型模拟的 21 世纪俄罗斯河径流变化的贝叶斯估计值

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1134/s000143382470018x

A. I. Medvedev, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov

{"title":"Bayesian Estimates of Changes in Russian River Runoff in the 21st Century Based on the CMIP6 Ensemble Model Simulations","authors":"A. I. Medvedev, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov","doi":"10.1134/s000143382470018x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s000143382470018x","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Based on simulations with an ensemble of CMIP6 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 6) climate models using Bayesian averaging, an analysis of changes in the runoff of a number of Russian rivers—the Volga, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Amur, and Selenga—has been carried out this century. Bayesian weights take into account the skill of runoff reproduction by models (long-term average runoff, linear runoff trend over a time interval with available runoff observations, and interannual and interdecadal variability). The skill of reproduction of runoff characteristics by individual CMIP6 ensemble models varies most widely for long-term average runoff; runoff trend; and, to a lesser extent, interannual variability. In the 21st century, the ensemble average runoff increases for most of the analyzed rivers, with the exception of the Volga. This increase is more pronounced in scenarios with large anthropogenic impacts. It is especially significant for the SSP5-8.5 scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 14 5-8.5), in which the trend of increase in runoff in 2015–2100 relative to its modern long-term average value is (10 ± 4)% for the Ob, (16 ± 3)% for the Yenisei, (39 ± 7)% for the Lena, (36 ± 7)% for the Amur, and (18 ± 6)% for the Selenga. The main reason for changes in ensemble average runoff in the 21st century in models under all SSP scenarios is the changes in precipitation. Accounting for differences in model skill when reproducing river runoff on average for 2015–2100 reduces intermodel deviations relative to the corresponding values when uniformly weighting the model calculation results by 6–26%, depending on the SSP scenario and river catchment.</p>","PeriodicalId":54911,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141524496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Variant of the Local Similarity Theory and Approximations of Vertical Profiles of Turbulent Moments of the Atmospheric Convective Boundary Layer 局部相似理论的变体和大气对流边界层湍流力矩垂直剖面的近似值

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700038

A. N. Vulfson, P. V. Nikolaev

{"title":"Variant of the Local Similarity Theory and Approximations of Vertical Profiles of Turbulent Moments of the Atmospheric Convective Boundary Layer","authors":"A. N. Vulfson, P. V. Nikolaev","doi":"10.1134/s0001433824700038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s0001433824700038","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>An approximation of the turbulent moments of the atmospheric convective layer is based on a variant of the local similarity theory using the concepts of the semiempirical theory of Prandtl turbulence. In the proposed variant of the local similarity theory, the second moment of vertical velocity and the “spectral” Prandtl mixing length are used as basic parameters. This approach allows us to extend Prandtl’s theory to turbulent moments of vertical velocity and buoyancy and additionally offer more than ten new approximations. A comparison of the proposed approximation with other variants of the theory of local similarity is considered. It is shown that the selected basic parameters significantly improve the agreement between the local similarity approximations and experimental data. The approximations are consistent with observations in the turbulent convective layer of the atmosphere, the upper boundary of which nearly corresponds to the lower boundary of the temperature inversion. Analytical approximations of local similarity can find applications in the construction of high-order moment closures in the vortex of resolving numerical turbulence models, as well as in the construction of “mass-flux” parametrization.</p>","PeriodicalId":54911,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140934293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Two-Dimensional Surface Periodic Flows of an Incompressible Fluid in Various Models of the Medium 不可压缩流体在各种介质模型中的二维表面周期性流动

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700087

A. A. Ochirov, Yu. D. Chashechkin

引用次数: 0

Retrieval of Nighttime Distributions of Mesosphere–Lower Thermosphere Characteristics from Satellite Data 从卫星数据中检索中间层-低温层特征的夜间分布情况

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700051

M. Yu. Kulikov, M. V. Belikovich, A. G. Chubarov, S. O. Dementyeva, A. M. Feigin

引用次数: 0

Variability of the Atmospheric Anticyclones and Their Connection with Surface Temperature Variations in Extratropical Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in Recent Decades 最近几十年北半球外热带纬度大气反气旋的变化及其与地表温度变化的关系

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700026

M. G. Akperov, I. I. Mokhov

引用次数: 0

Investigation into Temperature Multifractrality According to Zugspitze Weather Station Data 根据楚格峰气象站数据对温度多重性的研究

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700099

S. A. Riabova

引用次数: 0

Applying Satellite Microwave Radiometric Methods to Analyze the Relationship of Tropical Cyclogenesis with Water Vapor Transport in the Atlantic 应用卫星微波辐射测量方法分析热带气旋生成与大西洋水汽输送的关系

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s000143382470004x

A. G. Grankov, E. P. Novichikhin, N. K. Shelobanova

引用次数: 0

Rain Drop Motion in an Atmosphere Containing Aerosols Particles 含有气溶胶粒子的大气中的雨滴运动

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700014

T. R. Amanbaev

{"title":"Rain Drop Motion in an Atmosphere Containing Aerosols Particles","authors":"T. R. Amanbaev","doi":"10.1134/s0001433824700014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s0001433824700014","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>A mathematical model is constructed for the dynamics of a raindrop moving in a gravity field through an atmosphere containing fine particles, taking into account the processes of relaxation of its velocity and the capture of fine particles. It has been established that the equation of motion of a drop in the problem being posed belongs to the class of singularly perturbed equations, for the integration of which it is necessary to involve special algorithms. In the limiting modes of droplet motion, analytical solutions of the problem are obtained that describe the dependence of the droplet velocity and coordinate on time. In the complete formulation, the solutions of the problem are obtained numerically for different values of the defining parameters. The influence of the droplet size on the parameters of its motion in a concentrated aerodispersed mixture has been studied. The dependences of the limiting volume fraction of the solid component in the composition of the drop and the intensity of the precipitation of particles (washed out by the drop) on the earth’s surface on the size of the drop are obtained. A comparison of the calculated, approximate–analytical and experimental dependences of the steady-state rate of fall of a drop on its size has been carried out, and it shows their good agreement.</p>","PeriodicalId":54911,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140934086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Results of Tuned Parameterizations of a Weather Forecast Numerical Model by Measured Characteristics of Temperature Inversions in the Planetary Boundary Layer of the Moscow Megapolis 通过测量莫斯科大城市行星边界层的温度倒转特征对天气预报数值模型参数化进行调整的结果

IF 0.7 4区地球科学

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1134/s0001433824700075

R. V. Zhuravlev, E. A. Miller, A. K. Knyazev, N. A. Baranov, E. A. Lezina, A. V. Troitskii

{"title":"Results of Tuned Parameterizations of a Weather Forecast Numerical Model by Measured Characteristics of Temperature Inversions in the Planetary Boundary Layer of the Moscow Megapolis","authors":"R. V. Zhuravlev, E. A. Miller, A. K. Knyazev, N. A. Baranov, E. A. Lezina, A. V. Troitskii","doi":"10.1134/s0001433824700075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s0001433824700075","url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>In this work, the optimal parametrization of a mesoscale meteorological model is sought based on a comparative analysis of model forecasts and measurement results on temperature inversions in the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere of the Moscow megapolis. The WRF–ARW model was tested with several different combinations of physical parameterizations to assess the prediction quality for temperature inversion parameter over Moscow. The dynamic and statistical characteristics of temperature inversions have been calculated and analyzed in selecting criteria for the comparisons. The terms of temperature inversion destruction are estimated depending on the inversion type. The measurement results on temperature profiles in the layer of up to 1 km obtained by an MTP-5 passive microwave profiler from 2018 to 2021 served as the data source. One MTP-5 in the north of Moscow was used to tune the model parameters, and another one on the east of Moscow was used for validation. The comparison results show that the model can be optimally tuned using a set of several parameterization variants.</p>","PeriodicalId":54911,"journal":{"name":"Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140934164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0