Environmental Sciences Europe最新文献

{"title":"Review on the need for inventories and management of reservoirs of POPs and other persistent, bioaccumulating and toxic substances (PBTs) in the face of climate change","authors":"Roland Weber,&nbsp;Lautaro Girones,&nbsp;Ulrich Förstner,&nbsp;Mats Tysklind,&nbsp;David Laner,&nbsp;Henner Hollert,&nbsp;Martin Forter,&nbsp;John Vijgen","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01060-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01060-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Large quantities of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and other persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic substances (PBTs) like heavy metals have accumulated mainly over the last century in reservoirs, such as landfills, dump sites, contaminated sites, and mine tailings, as well as in environmental sinks like soils and sediments. Large floods in the past 20 years have demonstrated the mobilisation of POPs/PBTs from these reservoirs, underscoring the limitations of conventional technical safeguard measures like leachate and wastewater treatment or containment systems at landfills.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>This study emphasises the need to develop inventories of POPs/PBTs in these reservoirs for the assessment of future risk of increased flooding triggered by climate change and for priority setting of remediation and securing measures. Further, sea-level rise should be included in these assessments as long-term risk for large areas that are likely to be permanently flooded in the coming decades and centuries. In addition, the risk of release of POPs and other PBTs by industries affected by Natural Hazards Triggering Technological Accidents (Natech) should be globally evaluated. The review emphasises the importance of conducting systematic assessments and inventories to understand the risk of these reservoirs for environmental pollution and human exposure. The releases and remobilisation of POPs/PBTs can lead to higher levels in food and drinking water with increased human exposure. In addition to fish, it is crucial to consider livestock grazing in flood plains and other areas affected by floods, and to include them in inventories and risk management.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Based on these assessments, appropriate measures must be developed to eliminate or secure the respective reservoirs, following the precautionary approach. Whilst management measures have been initiated in affected areas (including affected feed/biomass), such as floodplains, there is a need to develop them more systematically. This review advocates for a comprehensive and precautionary approach to address the environmental challenges posed by climate change for POPs and other PBTs reservoirs, with an emphasis on increased flooding and sea-level rise. The substitution of POPs/PBTs in non-essential uses should be implemented to reduce future risks. A synergistic implementation of the Stockholm, Minimata, and Climate Convention can be used as frame for inventories and mitigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01060-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143668042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Who’s voice counts? Managing conservation and sustainable valorisation of peatlands","authors":"Ana-Maria Pop,&nbsp;Gheorghe-Gavrilă Hognogi,&nbsp;Răzvan-Horaţiu Bătinaş","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01087-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01087-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Globally, the benefits of wetland-associated ecosystems, particularly peatlands, are recognised, especially in implementing restoration works to eliminate biodiversity losses and restore degraded ecosystems. Eastern European countries, such as Romania, are significantly affected. The article aimed to analyse the perceptions of different stakeholder categories (scientists, local communities, local authorities) regarding the conservation and sustainable use of peatland ecosystems in Romania, emphasising their role as nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation. The study employs qualitative analysis involving 18 semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis in the form of a PESTLE analysis. The results highlight different perceptions between stakeholder categories regarding the benefits of ecosystem services provided by peatlands, the degree of differentiated assumption and involvement in conservation actions, and implications for ecosystem management in climate change mitigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01087-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143645559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fly bioash-borne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon removal by rapid-growth remediation systems of poplar, industrial hemp and parsley","authors":"Zdeněk Košnář,&nbsp;Pavel Tlustoš","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01089-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01089-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous, persistent, potentially carcinogenic organic pollutants in the environment. They are emitted mainly from the incomplete combustion of coal, oil, and wood, and energy crops. During biomass combustion for energy production, PAHs can accumulate mainly in fly ashes, and these ‘fly bioashes’ are sometimes used in agriculture as a source of mineral nutrients. The main aim of this study was to investigate the use of fast-growing plants for the removal of PAH contamination from fly bioash-treated soil. For PAH phytoremediation we chose fast-growing trees (poplars), an energy crop (industrial hemp), and a taproot vegetable (parsley). The removal of total PAHs from soil by natural attenuation in control treatments was less than 10%. Phytoremediation using poplar resulted in the greatest removal of 27% of the PAHs and there was no significant difference in PAH removal between poplar and hemp at 120 days post-planting. Individually screened PAHs with 2 to 4 benzene rings were removed from soil by poplars or hemp to a level of 21 − 39%. The parsley crop’s ability to accumulate and remove PAH was very low. Localization data showed the greatest accumulation of the tested PAHs in the roots, with little translocation of fly bioash PAHs from roots to shoots. Although the uptake of PAHs by plants is relatively low in general, poplar and hemp seem very promising for phytoremediation of soil containing PAHs from fertilization with biomass ash. We found that the removal efficiency of poplar could be improved through extended use over different vegetation periods. Innovation points include the identification of specific PAH removal efficiencies by different fast-growing plants, particularly highlighting the effectiveness of poplar and hemp in fly bioash-treated soils. The practical implications of this research suggest that integrating these plants into agricultural practices could enhance soil remediation while simultaneously serving as bioenergy crops, thereby providing a sustainable solution for managing soil PAH contamination.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01089-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143645558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consolidated octanol/water partition coefficients: combining multiple estimates from different methods to reduce uncertainties in log KOW","authors":"Monika Nendza,&nbsp;Verena Kosfeld,&nbsp;Christian Schlechtriem","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01072-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01072-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The octanol/water partition coefficient (<i>K</i>_OW) is a key parameter for assessing the fate and effects of chemicals. It is a metric of their hydrophobicity, related to uptake and accumulation in organisms and specific tissues, and distribution in water, soil and sediments. The log <i>K</i>_OW can be determined experimentally, more often it is calculated. Variability may be due to properties of the substances, different experimental methods, or different computational approaches with different domains of applicability. The objective of the present study is to derive coherent log <i>K</i>_OW estimates with known variability by (1) estimating multiple log <i>K</i>_OW values by different methods for diverse chemicals to exemplify their variabilities, (2) analysing the variabilities of log <i>K</i>_OW estimates by underlying methods and for different chemical classes, and (3) recommending approaches to obtain reliable and robust log <i>K</i>_OW estimates for hazard and risk assessment.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Comparative analyses were based on 231 case study chemicals representing diverse chemical classes, such as POPs, PCB, PAH, siloxanes, flame retardants, PFAS, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, surfactants, etc. The variability of up to 36 log <i>K</i>_OW values per substance, determined experimentally or estimated by different computational approaches, is 1 log unit and more across the entire log <i>K</i>_OW range from &lt;0 to &gt;8. No systematic pattern is evident. Different methods for deriving log <i>K</i>_OW perform sometimes better and sometimes worse for different chemicals. None of the methods (experimental or computational) is consistently superior and any method can be the worst.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Iterative consensus modelling combines multiple estimates by a weight-of-evidence (WoE) or averaging approach for scientifically valid and reproducible log <i>K</i>_OW estimates with known variability. Consolidated log <i>K</i>_OW, being the mean of at least 5 valid data obtained by different independent methods (experimental and computational), are a pragmatic way to deal with the variability and uncertainty of individual results. While this approach does not solve any of the problems about “correctly” determining log <i>K</i>_OW, it does limit the bias due to individual erroneous estimates. Consolidated log <i>K</i>_OW are robust and reliable measures of hydrophobicity, with variability mostly within 0.2 log units.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01072-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting particulate matter concentration in Shanghai using a small-scale long-term dataset","authors":"Andreu Salcedo-Bosch,&nbsp;Lian Zong,&nbsp;Yuanjian Yang,&nbsp;Jason B. Cohen,&nbsp;Simone Lolli","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01068-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01068-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study applies machine learning techniques, specifically stacked generalization, to develop a 1-day-ahead air pollution forecasting model for Shanghai, one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world, taking advantage of the essential information on air quality that can be inferred from a small but long-term dataset of meteorological and pollutant concentration variables (<span>(text{PM}_{10})</span> and <span>(text{PM}_{2.5})</span>), consisting of only 4240 samples. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of daily-averaged meteorological observation data, including temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS) and direction (WD) and precipitation (P) from 74 automatic weather stations over a 12-year period, from 2011 to 2021, and satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) for the same time interval. In addition, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the most prevalent synoptic weather patterns in the Shanghai region to assess the origin of pollution advection sources. Thanks to the long-term trends information used for model training, combined with machine learning stacking generalization techniques, the developed model improved the prediction results of alternative methods for pollution forecasting with limited observations, obtaining RMSE and <span>(R^2)</span> values of 11.93<span>(upmu text{g}, text{m}^{-3})</span> and 0.72, respectively. Moreover, it was able to forecast most of the pollution peaks, such as those in January 2019 and November 2020, showing itself as a useful tool for policy making and alerting for health risks. The results of this study highlight the need for cohesive strategies that tackle both air quality and climate change to promote sustainable urban growth and environmental robustness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01068-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143645560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China promotes coastal wetland restoration to protect wetland ecosystems","authors":"Quansheng Wang,&nbsp;Guoqing Han,&nbsp;Qi Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01086-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01086-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In 2023, China amended the Marine Environmental Protection Law, making it clear that China needs to make greater efforts to protect the marine ecological environment, including the coastal wetland environment. The concept of land and sea integration integrates the management of coastal wetland ecosystems with the management of marine ecosystems to promote the improvement of China’s marine and coastal wetland ecosystems. Coastal wetlands are the interconnected transition zones between terrestrial and marine ecosystems, playing a crucial role in the overall ecosystem. China has rich coastal wetland resources, distributed in 11 provinces and cities along the eastern coast of China. During the economic development of the past 70 years, the area of coastal wetlands has significantly decreased, leading to damage to coastal wetland resources. Although China began to focus on restoring and maintaining wetlands after the 1970s, it still faces various risks and challenges, including reclamation, urban expansion, and pollution. In the future, China will need to enhance the classification and grading standards of coastal wetlands, establish general guidelines for ecological restoration, improve the regulatory system in ecological restoration, and strengthen the monitoring mechanisms of coastal wetlands to restore and maintain coastal wetland resources. This paper finds that China has taken steps to restore coastal wetlands. Although these steps have had a relatively significant impact, the rate of coastal wetland destruction continues to exceed the rate of restoration. To address this imbalance, China needs a comprehensive approach to increased support in terms of systems, technology, and financial investment. This will help increase the restoration efforts and improve the ecological quality of China’s coastal wetlands.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01086-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143622193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls is associated with markers of inflammation and oxidative stress in cord blood samples","authors":"Mohammed Merza,&nbsp;Enwa Felix Oghenemaro,&nbsp;Mohammed Asiri,&nbsp;Lalji Baldaniya,&nbsp;Ahmed Hjazi,&nbsp;Parjinder Kaur,&nbsp;Muhayyo Kholjigitova,&nbsp;Gulshan Rathore,&nbsp;M. Ravi Kumar,&nbsp;Moslem Lari Najafi","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01076-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01076-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impacts of environmental pollutants on prenatal health are a growing concern, yet we still have limited understanding of how specific pollutants like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) impact inflammation and oxidative stress in umbilical cord blood. This study explores how exposure to PCBs in umbilical cord blood relates to biomarkers of inflammation and oxidative stress in newborns. Between June 2019 and August 2021, we conducted a study with 450 pregnant women. We measured umbilical cord blood PCB levels using advanced Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC–MS). We also assessed key biomarkers Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha (TNF-α), Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Interleukin-8 (IL-8), Transforming Growth Factor Beta (TGF-β), and Pro-oxidant Antioxidant Balance (PAB) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). To analyze the data, we employed multivariable regression models and quantile g-computation. Higher levels of specific PCBs were associated with increased levels of inflammatory markers like TNF-α and IL-6, as well as PAB. In particular, PCBs such as PCB-28, PCB-138, PCB-153, and PCB-180 were linked to elevated TNF-α and IL-6. The g-comp analysis also showed that as PCB levels increased, so did the levels of all five biomarkers, indicating a cumulative impact on inflammation and oxidative stress. This study is the first to link PCB exposure in umbilical cord blood with increased markers of inflammation and oxidative stress, shedding new light on the potential health risks for newborns. These findings highlight the importance of further research into how prenatal exposure to PCBs might affect long-term health outcomes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01076-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143602097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Summary of discussions from the 2022 OECD CRP-sponsored conference on innovating microbial pesticide testing","authors":"Magdalini Sachana,&nbsp;Patience Browne,&nbsp;Domenico Deserio,&nbsp;Emily Hopwood,&nbsp;Eric Liégeois,&nbsp;Geoff Sinclair","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01085-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01085-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Microbial pesticides are a class of biopesticide that includes microorganisms, such as bacteria, fungi, viruses, and protozoa, that are applied for pest control. Mammalian (human health) and non-target organism hazard testing are required to support registrations of microbial pesticides; however, developers and regulators of microbial pesticides face both new and old challenges for testing. New challenges include how to design or adapt new approach methodologies (NAMs), typically developed for chemicals, to mammalian health testing for microbial pesticides. Older challenges involve need for improved guidance for hazard testing with non-target organisms. Both are viewed as potential barriers to the development and adoption of microbial pesticides, which are potential alternatives to chemical pesticides. The 2022 conference, Innovating Microbial Pesticide Testing (hereafter, “the Conference”), sponsored by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Cooperative Research Program (CRP), brought together experts on these topics from academic, industry, government, and non-governmental organizations to discuss the above challenges and establish plans to address them. Speakers presented on their perspectives of the challenges and potential solutions, which informed and guided panel discussions. This paper summarizes the contributions from presentations and panel discussions toward the conference conclusions and resulting workplans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01085-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates","authors":"Saurabh Annadate,&nbsp;Enrico Mancinelli,&nbsp;Barbara Gonella,&nbsp;Federica Moricci,&nbsp;Simon O’Doherty,&nbsp;Kieran Stanley,&nbsp;Dickon Young,&nbsp;Martin K. Vollmer,&nbsp;Rita Cesari,&nbsp;Serena Falasca,&nbsp;Umberto Giostra,&nbsp;Michela Maione,&nbsp;Jgor Arduini","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01081-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01081-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>HFC-134a is the most prevalent hydrofluorocarbon used as a replacement for ozone-depleting CFCs and HCFCs. Due to its high global warming potential, it is regulated under various European and global frameworks, underscoring the importance of tracking its emissions. Emissions derived by the commonly used, bottom-up, methodology are affected by a certain degree of uncertainty. The bottom-up estimates can be aided with an independent top-down estimate based on atmospheric observations combined with an atmospheric transport model. This study presents HFC-134a emissions for Europe, with a specific focus on Italy, from 2008 to 2023. The emissions were estimated using a Bayesian inversion methodology, based on atmospheric observations collected at four European stations. Our analysis reveals a slightly increasing trend in HFC-134a emissions for Italy from 2008 to 2015 of 0.17 <span>({mathrm{Gg,yr}^{-1}})</span>, followed by a steady decrease thereafter, highlighting the effect of European regulation on fluorinated gases that came into force in 2014. We observed a reduction in HFC-134a emissions in the Po Basin inferred from the inversion method for 2020, likely due to mobility restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The observed mild seasonality in emissions may be partly attributed to higher air-conditioning activity during summer. Comparison with the Italian National Emission Inventory indicates an improvement in iterative bottom-up estimates, with the 2024 inventory emission trend post-2015 aligning closely with our inversion results. This study emphasises the need for collaboration between the two independent approaches to enhance the accuracy of emission estimates. Such cooperation is crucial to narrowing the gap in quantifying emissions of potent greenhouse gases and effectively assessing the progress of international policies and regulations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01081-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143583425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of phthalate exposure and blood lipids on breast cancer risk: machine learning prediction","authors":"Yanbin Liu,&nbsp;Kunze Li,&nbsp;Yu Zhang,&nbsp;Yifan Cai,&nbsp;Xuanyu Liu,&nbsp;Yiwei Jia,&nbsp;Peizhuo Yao,&nbsp;Xinyu Wei,&nbsp;Huizi Wu,&nbsp;Xuan Liu,&nbsp;Cong Feng,&nbsp;Chaofan Li,&nbsp;Weiwei Wang,&nbsp;Shuqun Zhang,&nbsp;Chong Du","doi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01071-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12302-025-01071-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Phthalates exposure and its potential link to cancer are increasingly drawing public attention, which are found in products frequently used by women, including plastic food packaging and cosmetics. Given the lack of consensus from existing studies on the association of phthalate exposure with breast cancer, conducting large-scale, well-designed epidemiological studies is crucial for clarifying this potential risk.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>Utilizing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), this study assessed the correlation between exposure to phthalates and the risk of breast cancer. The analysis included ten phthalate compounds selected based on their prevalence and potential health impact. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the correlation between phthalate exposure or other risk factors and breast cancer. Furthermore, machine learning-based predictive models were constructed to evaluate the significance of different variables.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, four types of phthalates including MEP, DEHP, MEHHP, and MEOHP were identified as risk factors of breast cancer. In addition, MIBP, MINP, MEHP were also recognized as risk factors after adjusting for age. Conversely, MNBP and MCPP exhibited protective effects against breast cancer. Notably, MIBP demonstrated the most significant predictive power in machine learning models. The predictive model’s accuracy, as indicated by the area under the ROC curve, was 87.1%. Furthermore, survival analysis indicated that breast cancer patients with higher levels of phthalate exposure experienced significantly poorer survival outcomes than those with lower exposure levels. Intriguingly, subgroup analysis revealed a significant inverse association between phthalate exposure and breast cancer risk, particularly among individuals with elevated blood lipid levels.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The study revealed that exposure to specific phthalates was significantly associated with an elevated risk of breast cancer. Conversely, a higher concentration of blood lipids appeared to be negatively correlated with this risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-025-01071-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143581172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}