Physics and Chemistry of the Earth最新文献

{"title":"Petroleum source rock characterization and hydrocarbon generating potential of sediments from Surghar range, Kohat plateau, Upper Indus Basin","authors":"Fraz Khalid ,&nbsp;Arif Nazir ,&nbsp;Saeed Abbas ,&nbsp;Munawar Iqbal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103853","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103853","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focusses on the investigation of hydrocarbon generating potential of the Surghar Range Kohat Plateau, Upper Indus. The potential source rock of Paleocene, Cretaceous and Jurassic rocks including the Patala, Hangu, Chichali, SamnaSuk, Shinawari, Datta formations were assessed through geochemical analysis of their well cuttings. These analyses include Rock-Eval Pyrolysis, TOC, Kerogen type, thermal maturity and depositional environment. The TOC, wt. % reveals that sixteen samples of M-03 well of Patala Formation (0.91−10.62 wt %) show excellent quality, while other formations belong to N-02 and C-02 exhibit have fair to good quality of OM. The hydrogen index (HI) values of M-03 oil well for the Patala formation are ranging from 200 to 318 exhibit Type II/III Kerogen. HI value of N-02 well for the Patala Formation are greater than 300 indicates Type II Kerogen whereas other samples show OM of Type III Kerogen. The thermal maturity of the Patala Formation of M-03, N-02 and C-02 oil wells falls in early stage oil window and all the other analyzed formations are thermally immature. Genetic potential is generally in good range except for small number of samples from Chichali, SamanaSuk, Shinawari and Datta formations, which indicate poor genetic potential values. This study uniquely identifies the kerogen types and thermal maturity of under study formations, providing critical insights for understanding their economic viability. By highlighting the differences in organic matter quality across formations, it fills a gap in the existing literature and supports informed decision-making for future exploration efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103853"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of stress changes caused during the coseismic and postseismic periods of the 2008 Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake on May 12th on the MS 4.1 earthquake in the Xiangxi area of the three Gorges reservoir on November 22, 2008","authors":"Ye Wu ,&nbsp;Yunsheng Yao ,&nbsp;Weibing Qin ,&nbsp;Guanwen Gu ,&nbsp;Yongge Wan ,&nbsp;Shunji Wang ,&nbsp;Lai Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To investigate the seismic hazards caused by large earthquakes around the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), we calculate the postseismic quasistatic Coulomb failure stress (CFS) and the coseismic dynamic changes in the CFS generated by the Wenchuan earthquake (WCE, mainshock) on May 12, 2008(WCE), in the TGR area. For the coseismic dynamic CFS changes, the results show that in the first few minutes after the WCE, the seismic waves spread to the Xiangxi earthquake (XXE) area in the Xiannvshan fault (XNF) zone on November 22, 2008.The dynamic change in the CFS generated in the XNF zone was positive, with a peak value of 1.32 MPa. This result indicates that the coseismic dynamic change in the CFS generated by the WCE made the rocks in the XNF zone more susceptible to fracturing and weakening, which may have triggered the XXE in the TGR. The results reveal that the postseismic quasistatic CFS changes were positive and increased with depth, reaching approximately 0.05KPa at the epicenter before the XXE, resulting in the quasistatic change in the CFS generated by the WCE on the XNF surface. The postearthquake quasistatic change in the CFS exhibited a small positive value, indicating that shear stress had been continuously applied on the fault plane to promote sliding of the fault plane, which may have had a certain impact on the fault rupture. This study has practical importance for analyzing the seismic hazards of large earthquakes near the TGR and the earthquake resistance and defense of the TGR area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103865"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"3D geo-seismic data enhancement leveraging geophysical attributes for hydrocarbon prospect and geological illumination","authors":"Yasir Bashir,&nbsp;Damla Nur Akdeniz,&nbsp;Dilara Balci,&nbsp;Melihcan Soner,&nbsp;Deniz Utkan Ozturk,&nbsp;Muhammed Tekin,&nbsp;Doğa Doğan,&nbsp;Abdullah Karaman,&nbsp;Caner İmren","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103854","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103854","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The process of 3D Geo-Seismic interpretation focuses on the precise characterization of subsurface geological structures and lithological properties, as well as the identification of rocks that contain hydrocarbons. This research focuses on the challenge of analyzing seismic data from a geophysical standpoint by employing specialized methodologies. The main objective is to explore the complex characteristics of deep geological structures that serve as reservoirs for hydrocarbon resources. The analysis thoroughly explores their structural features and complex stratigraphic layers. The analysis of the stratigraphy in the region revealed various types of irregularities through the complex seismic sections acquired during this study. Furthermore, in the context of potential hydrocarbon formations in the area, the study aims to identify trap structures and analyze phenomena such as dim spots, flat spots, and bright spots—features that are typically not present in standard seismic data. This research employs 3D Geo-Seismic data enhancement by leveraging geophysical attributes in the Cooper Basin region of Australia. The modern approach is employed to analyze seismic data for the identification of hydrocarbon deposits and the investigation of trap formations. The research objectives focus on the analysis of subsurface geology using 3D seismic data, understanding the local petroleum system, and enhancing target illumination through geophysical attributes to characterize subsurface hydrocarbon structures. This paper provides significant insights into geophysics and hydrocarbon exploration by conducting a thorough examination of geological complexities. The approach taken in this study offers important perspectives for future research and resource evaluation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103854"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the impact of land surface temperature on off-seasonal precipitation in Surat city at the regional level","authors":"Rachana Patil,&nbsp;Meenal Surawar","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of advancing urbanization, cities grapple with escalating challenges such as heightened and unpredictable occurrences of heatwaves and increased precipitation, resulting in recurrent issues like urban heat islands, waterlogging, water pollution, and floods. Particularly in densely populated countries like India, this has become a pressing concern due to a surge in mortality and morbidity rates linked to the amplified frequency of heat and off-season precipitation events. Given that the impacts of rising temperatures and precipitation exhibit a regional character, a comprehensive analysis at the urban scale is impractical. Consequently, this research focuses on a 75 km buffer surrounding Surat city. The study delves into the spatial patterns and influences of land surface temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index on off season precipitation across the decades from 1991 to 2021, considering both summer and winter seasons to capture the unpredictable nature of the events. Additionally, the research examines correlations among these parameters and delineation of vulnerable areas to heightened off-season precipitation events. In winter, the effect of LST on precipitation is localized, resulting in a positive correlation. In contrast, during summer, the influence of LST on precipitation is not localized, leading to a negative correlation. These findings provide valuable insights for planners, enabling the formulation of regionally tailored policies that address vulnerabilities beyond urban boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103844"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling of snow cover area in relation with climatic variability over the Sind basin of Kashmir Himalayas (2002–2022)","authors":"Suhail Ahmad Dar ,&nbsp;Md. Omar Sarif","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Snow Cover Area (SCA) of the Kashmir Himalayas is vital for environmental, hydrological, and socio-economic stability, influencing water management, agriculture, hydroelectric power, biodiversity, and tourism. This study evaluates the monthly, seasonal, and annual SCA of the Sind basin (2002–2022) using MODIS Terra (MOD10A2) data and NASA POWER PROJECT climate data, employing Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis to examine climatic sensitivities. The average annual SCA is 57.94% (895.75 km²), with a statistically insignificant increase of 0.16% per year. Seasonal SCA averages are 86.12% in winter, 70.72% in spring, 24.15% in summer, and 49.13% in autumn. Significant trends include a winter increase of 0.37% per year and a spring decline of −0.28% per year. Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis results indicated that Annual precipitation shows a statistically significant rise (Sen's slope: +25.61 mm/year). While temperature negatively correlates with annual SCA (≤ −0.77 in all years during 2002-2022), highlighting rising temperatures' detrimental effects on snow retention. A positive correlation of SCA with precipitation indicates (≥0.69 in all years during 2002-2022) that increased precipitation could partially offset snow cover loss. These findings underscore snow cover's sensitivity to climate variability and the critical need for adaptive management strategies. With snow resources essential for water security and ecosystem stability, the study provides valuable insights for regional climate adaptation and policy development, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change impacts on the fragile Himalayan environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103843"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Near-surface seismic refraction anomalies due to underground target models and the application in civil and environmental engineering","authors":"Joseph Omeiza Alao ,&nbsp;Kolawole Muideen Lawal ,&nbsp;Bala Bello Muhammad Dewu ,&nbsp;Jimoh Raimi","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying the precise depth and location of shallow underground utilities in civil and environmental engineering through geophysical means is quite challenging due to near-surface and cultural noise. This study investigates the influence of buried targets on seismic refraction tomography (SRT) measurements at a geophysical experimental site, aiming to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of SRT data. A pre-burial study was performed, resulting in seismic velocity distributions between 200 m/s and 800 m/s for the unsaturated upper layer at depth of 0.0 m–3.0 m, 800 m/s to 1300 m/s for the middle layer at depth of 0.5 m–2.5 m, and 1300 m/s to 2400 m/s for the lower layer at depth of 1.1 m–6.0 m, unveiling a complex stratigraphy that holds valuable insights for engineering endeavours. Parallel seismic layers observed in the pre-study were attributed to a short distance profile (40 m). The pre-burial and post-burial surveys showed consistent layer velocities and thicknesses. The position of larger modelled targets such as drums and clustered plastic buckets indicates significant distortion with depressed/projected displacements, suggesting SRT anomalies, which spatially coincide with the positions of the target buried. However, some of the buried targets have not yet been detected by the SRT technique, which may be due to several factors. The suspected seismic refraction anomalies due to the non-metallic and metallic buried targets tend to generate downward and upward curve nature anomalies, respectively. In addition, the highest displacement resulting from the refraction of seismic waves at various depths appears to be a combination of shear wave and body wave overlapped. Based on the sizes of the buried modelled targets, the study recommends a 0.50 m geophone spacing for investigating very shallow underground utilities in civil and environmental engineering using 2D SRT.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103845"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Utilizing machine learning to estimate monthly streamflow in ungauged basins of Thailand's southern basin","authors":"Nureehan Salaeh ,&nbsp;Pakorn Ditthakit ,&nbsp;Sirimon Pinthong ,&nbsp;Warit Wipulanusat ,&nbsp;Uruya Weesakul ,&nbsp;Ismail Elkhrachy ,&nbsp;Krishna Kumar Yadav ,&nbsp;Ghadah Shukri Albakri ,&nbsp;Maha Awjan Alreshidi ,&nbsp;Nand Lal Kushwaha ,&nbsp;Mohamed Elsahabi","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting streamflow in ungauged basins is a challenging hydrological issue that requires accurate estimation for effective water resource management. This article aims to evaluate the effectiveness of five different Machine Learning (ML) models (i.e., M5 model tree (M5), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression-polynomial kernel (SVR-poly), Support Vector Regression-radial basis function kernel (SVR-rbf), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)) for predicting monthly streamflow in ungauged basins. The proposed models were compared with the method of GR2M's regionalized model parameters. Data was collected from 37 streamflow stations in the southern basin of Thailand. The data utilized included hydrological information like monthly rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow, as well as physical watershed characteristics such as basin size, river length, distance from the hydrometric station to the area's centroid, and slope. The study evaluated these methods for two distinct scenarios, namely (a) estimating average monthly streamflow and (b) estimating monthly streamflow. The study was conducted in four phases: selection of input data, hyperparameter tuning, performance comparison of different models, and assessment of the chosen model's suitability for predicting monthly streamflow in ungauged basins. Five-fold cross-validation with four statistical indicators, namely, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Overall Index (OI), Coefficient of Determination (r²), and Combined Index (CI), were utilized for the model's performance comparison. The results showed that the RF model produced the best performance compared to other ML models and outperformed the GR2M's regionalized model parameters in both scenarios, achieving performance indicators with NSE &gt;0.6, OI &gt; 0.6, r² &gt; 0.6, and CI &gt; 2.0.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103840"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rainwater infiltration in a vegetated slope subjected to high intensity rainfall","authors":"Somjai Yubonchit ,&nbsp;Avirut Chinkulkijniwat ,&nbsp;Taworn Tirametatiparat ,&nbsp;Suksun Horpibulsuk","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation is widely accepted as an effective and environmentally friendly approach to mitigating slope failure. However, due to global warming, very high rainfall intensity might become more common. Rainwater infiltration in a sloping ground was studied, using a vegetated slope model subjected to very high rainfall intensity. The model slope was planted with the grass species <em>Axonopus compressus</em> to create two soil layers of uniform thickness, one with plant roots and one without. It was found that, for every simulated rainfall intensity used in this study, water infiltrated vertically in both soil layers. Furthermore, even under simulated rainfall of very high intensity, there existed a final infiltrated water content (<span><math><mrow><msub><mi>θ</mi><mi>f</mi></msub></mrow></math></span>) whose magnitude could be approximated from the k-function of the soil and the final infiltration capacity. Results from this study would enhance the knowledge of rainwater infiltration in a vegetated slope subjected to high rainfall intensity, and hence the stability assessment of vegetated slopes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103841"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated reservoir characterization and simulation approach to enhance production of tight sandstone gas reservoir, Sulige gas field, Ordos Basin, China","authors":"Sayed Muhammad Iqbal ,&nbsp;Dawei Hu ,&nbsp;Javid Hussain ,&nbsp;Nafees Ali ,&nbsp;Wakeel Hussain ,&nbsp;Altaf Hussain ,&nbsp;Edwin E. Nyakilla","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103846","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103846","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The tight gas reservoir is a significant unconventional hydrocarbon resource of energy worldwide. However, the complex nature and heterogeneity make it challenging during exploration and production. Moreover, constructing and updating 3D reservoir model is vital for reservoir monitoring and surveillance. Such reservoirs require precise simulation strategies to accurately assess the hydrocarbon potential and formulate effective field development plans. Hence, this study delivers an efficient workflow integrating 3D reservoir modeling, history matching, and feasible development scenarios to enhance the gas recovery of the tight gas reservoir, block Su-6 of the Sulige gas field, China. Initially, history matching was verified so that the model aligned with the actual production data, reflecting a more accurate depiction of fluid flow dynamics within the reservoir. Manual matching was utilized by adjusting parameters, e.g., the relative permeability, pore volume, and transmissibility multiplier, by limited simulation runs to attain a good history match. Next, the most reliable matching model can serve as the base case to predict reservoir performance via the field development strategy. The optimal scenario, identified in the 3D gas reservoir model, was to add five infill horizontal wells, which generate 8.2 % extra gas recovery related to the reference case. This finding reveals that the accurate field development strategy is to enhance the effectiveness of the production via infill a horizontal well in the unswept area of the reservoir. The primary contribution of this research indicates the worth of the field development strategy of complex tight reservoirs. Moreover, it assists operators in understanding the fluid flow dynamics and production enhancement utilizing the production history portrait and field development scenarios of the tight sandstone gas reservoir of China or elsewhere.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103846"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-temporal Variations and Forecast of PM2.5 concentration around selected Satellite Cities of Delhi, India using ARIMA model","authors":"Vipasha Sharma ,&nbsp;Swagata Ghosh ,&nbsp;Varun Narayan Mishra ,&nbsp;Pradeep Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2024.103849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air pollution presents serious threats to society around the world, especially in India. Among various ambient air pollutants, particulate matter (PM_2.5 &amp; PM₁₀) have drawn significant attention from researchers owing to its adverse health impacts. Therefore, the accurate prediction of particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5) is essential for effective air pollution management and the prevention of respiratory diseases. The present study aims to systematically monitor and forecast the concentration of PM_2.5 in selected satellite cities of Delhi, an area that has been relatively underexplored despite its high pollution levels. In such data scarce zone, the estimation and prediction of PM_2.5 have been done using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The model's predictive accuracy and stability were validated with correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and relative prediction error (RPE). The results indicate that ARIMA model predicted PM_2.5 with sufficient accuracy for the current research area, demonstrating superior values of R (0.90), R² (0.82) and lower RPE (16.84), RMSE (18.28), MAE (16.89). The findings of the study indicate that the ARIMA model is a reliable method to predict PM2.5 concentrations, with acceptable accuracy. However, the ARIMA model depends on historical time series data to find trend and predict future conditions, assuming that the series remains static. Subsequently, it cannot consider the external factors that might cause alterations in the series. Such assumption limits its ability to effectively model cause-and-effect relationships. This approach is helpful for policy formulation and governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103849"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}