Physics and Chemistry of the Earth最新文献

{"title":"Rock slope stability analysis using ensemble decision tree approaches and feature importance along an economic corridor in central India","authors":"Nikhil Kumar Pandey,&nbsp;Kunal Gupta,&nbsp;Neelima Satyam","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Large-scale slope destabilization poses significant risks, particularly during rapid infrastructure development along key economic corridors. The present study provides an advanced analysis of rock slope stability along a crucial route, National Expressway-4 connecting Mumbai and New Delhi, a region characterized by geologically complex terrain. Utilizing the Hoek-Brown criterion within a Finite Element Method (FEM) framework, the study simulates Strength Reduction Factors (SRF) under various conditions, emphasizing the influence of the Geological Strength Index (GSI). A comprehensive dataset varying seven critical input parameters was generated from these simulations. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, particularly tree-based models, were employed to predict SRF values. The Random Forest (RF) model emerged as the most accurate, achieving an <span><math><mrow><mi>R</mi><mo>²</mo></mrow></math></span> value of 0.9704, a root means square error of 0.2045, and a mean absolute error of 0.0526. Other models, like Gradient Boosting (GB) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), also performed well but were slightly less accurate. The analysis highlighted the significant impact of slope height, angle, and GSI on model predictions by feature importance analysis and visualized through Radar plots. Later a rating system for important parameters was proposed based on research findings. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating field data, FEM analysis, and machine learning techniques for assessing slope stability, with the Random Forest model proving particularly robust in identifying vulnerable slopes along this critical economic corridor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103868"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microplastic contamination in Indian mackerel: A study of prevalence and potential health risks for Malaysian consumers","authors":"Mohamad Najihah ,&nbsp;Masni Mohd Ali ,&nbsp;Khairiatul Mardiana Jansar ,&nbsp;Ku Kassim Ku Yaacob ,&nbsp;Nur Hidayah Asgnari","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103864","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103864","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microplastic pollution has grown significantly due to the rapid production of plastic, becoming a major environmental issue. This study examines the prevalence and characteristics of microplastics in Indian mackerel, a commercially significant fish species in Malaysia, marking the first comprehensive analysis of its kind in the country. We collected 180 fish from six locations in the South China Sea and Malacca Strait, digested them with a 10% KOH alkaline digestion and further characterized using micro-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Microplastics were found in 93.3% of the fish, primarily as fibers, black in color, and smaller than 0. mm. The average number of microplastics per fish was significantly higher (p &lt; 0.05) in the gastrointestinal tract (3.07 ± 1.70 particles) compared to gills (0.33 ± 0.15 particles) and edible tissue (0.34 ± 0.15 particles). Notably, 28.89% of the fish had microplastics in their edible tissue, with an average concentration of 0.043 ± 0.036 particles g⁻¹. Based on edible tissue concentration and Ministry of Health Malaysia fish intake recommendations, Malaysians may ingest 670.8 to 2016.7 microplastic particles annually per capita through fish consumption, with Indian mackerel contributing an estimated 233.49 to 478.16 particles per year per capita. The main polymer types identified were rayon and polyamide, pointing to textiles and fishing gear as likely sources. These findings highlight the pervasive presence of microplastics in Indian mackerel and potential human health risks, emphasizing the need for further research and stricter regulations to combat microplastic pollution and ensure food safety in Malaysia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103864"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physical, optical and radiative attributes of atmospheric aerosols produced due to bonfire during the Holika festival","authors":"Bharat Ji Mehrotra ,&nbsp;Arti Choudhary ,&nbsp;Atul K. Srivastava ,&nbsp;Sudhir Kumar Sharma ,&nbsp;Manoj K. Srivastava","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air pollution is a global health issue, and events like forest fires, agricultural burning, dust storms, and fireworks can significantly worsen it. Festivals involving fireworks and wood-log fires, such as Diwali and Holi, are key examples of events that impact local air quality. During Holi, the ritual of Holika involves burning of biomass that releases large amounts of aerosols and other pollutants. To assess the impact of Holika burning, observations were conducted from March 5th to March 18th, 2017. On March 12th, 2017, around 1.8 million kg of wood and biomass were openly burned in about 2250 units of Holika, located in and around the Varanasi city (25.23 N, 82.97 E, ∼82.20 m amsl). As the Holika burning event began the impact on the Black Carbon (BC), particulate matter 10 &amp; 2.5 (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), ozone (O₃) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentration were observed. Thorough optical investigations have been conducted to better comprehend the radiative effects of aerosols produced due to Holika burning on the environment. The measured AOD at 500 nm values were 0.315 ± 0.072, 0.392, and 0.329 ± 0.037, while the BC mass was 7.09 ± 1.78, 9.95, and 7.18 ± 0.27 μg/m³ for the pre-Holika, Holika, and post-Holika periods. Aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (ARF-TOA), at the surface (ARF-SUR), and in the atmosphere (ARF-ATM) are 2.46 ± 4.15, −40.22 ± 2.35, and 42.68 ± 4.12 W/m² for pre-Holika, 6.34, −53.45, and 59.80 W/m² for Holika, and 5.50 ± 0.97, −47.11 ± 5.20, and 52.61 ± 6.17 W/m² for post-Holika burning. These intense observation and analysis revealed that Holika burning adversely impacts AQI, BC concentration and effects climate in terms of ARF and heating rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103856"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the mechanical properties of desert sand concrete under dry-wet cycles with sulfate erosion","authors":"Wenjing Xu ,&nbsp;Haifeng Liu ,&nbsp;Dongyang Qin ,&nbsp;Shu Ing Doh","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To evaluate the potential application of desert sand concrete (DSC) in the construction industry, the evolution of its properties in the conjoint impact of sulfate corrosion and dry-wet (D-W) cycles was investigated. In this study, a range of variables were taken into account, including desert sand replacement rate (DSRR, 0,40,60%), D-W cycles (0, 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 cycles) and mass fraction of sodium sulfate solution (3, 5 and 7%). The performance deterioration of DSC such as ultrasonic parameters, dynamic elastic modulus and damage parameters were analyzed under sulfate environment. Uniaxial compression tests ascertained the peak stress, peak strain and the compressive stress-strain curve of DSC under a range of sulfate D-W cycles. Microscopic testing techniques such as scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) were utilized to examine the microstructure morphology and phase composition of DSC. The experimental findings demonstrated that the ability of DSC to resist corrosion characteristics could be effectively improved under sulfate attack and D-W cycles when desert sand was added at 40%. The peak stress of DSC was improved first and then diminished with the progression of D-W cycles, attaining the maximum value at 60 D-W cycles, while peak strain gradually decreased and then increased. SEM and XRD test results revealed that sulfate crystals and continuing formation of expansive materials like gypsum (CaSO₄·2 H₂O) and ettringite (AFt) were the principal elements causing the degradation of DSC as the D-W cycles increased.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103852"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of driving factors and suitability assessment for raft aquaculture in the Northern China seas using remote sensing data","authors":"Long Gao ,&nbsp;Xiao He ,&nbsp;Junmin Zhang ,&nbsp;Bo Wang ,&nbsp;Sijia Tian ,&nbsp;Kunfu Wang ,&nbsp;Mengnan Chen ,&nbsp;Wenzhuo Lin ,&nbsp;Xian Wu ,&nbsp;Mingrui Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103861","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Remote sensing technology and its derived products have enabled large-scale suitability assessments for marine aquaculture, critically important for ensuring the safety of marine aquaculture products and the sustainable development of the marine aquaculture industry in China. In this study, multi-source remote sensing data and Geographical Detector analysis were employed to quantitatively evaluate the driving factors of raft aquaculture in the northern maritime regions of China. Additionally, an evaluation indicator system for raft aquaculture suitability was developed, and the suitability of raft aquaculture in 2022 was evaluated. Furthermore, the suitability of raft aquaculture under three development strategies was discussed. The results are as follows: (1) Socio-infrastructure factors rather than marine environment factors are the predominant drivers shaping the spatial pattern of raft aquaculture in the study area. (2) In 2022, 66.83% of the raft aquaculture areas were located in regions deemed suitable for farming, 29.73% were in moderately suitable areas, and only 3.44% were in areas unsuitable for aquaculture. (3) When further considering the marine environment factors, the sea area suitable for raft aquaculture does not significantly decrease, indicating that there is a certain degree of planning adjustment space in the layout of raft aquaculture within the study area. This research provides insights to inform the healthy and sustainable development of the marine farming industry in the northern waters of China<strong>.</strong></div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103861"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Physicochemical characterization and health risk modeling of atmospheric particulate matter","authors":"Suresh Kumar,&nbsp;Shiv Kumar Dwivedi","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103863","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103863","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intention of this investigation is to inspect the variations in air quality and highlight the physicochemical aspect of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ and its health risk in the most polluted city Lucknow, India during 2019 and 2020. The sampling of both pollutants PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were conducted 4 times/month for 24 h in four diverse urban areas of Lucknow viz., institutional-(BBAU), residential-(Gomti Nagar), semi-commercial-(Indira Nagar) and commercial cum traffic area-(Hazratganj). The PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 particles were taken on glass microfiber filter paper using Respirable Dust Sampler and Fine Particulate Sampler respectively. The decline in levels of PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and air quality index were found 43%, 42% and 38% μg/m³ respectively in 2020 compared to 2019. The morphological and elemental compositions of PM₁₀ and PM₂_.₅ pollutants displayed wide disparity during the study period, the key components viz., lead-(spherical), cadmium-(crystalline), biological particles-(capsule/oval), carbon particles-(spherical-porous) and vehicle exhaust-(slight-spherical). The health exposure of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 has also been computed on AirQ+, long-term exposure to PM₁₀ led to a 38% decline in post-neonatal mortality for all causes in 2020 compared to 2019. Whereas the long-term magnitude of mortality due to all causes from PM_2.5 exposure was 46% lower in 2020 compared to 2019. This sharp reduction in air quality and remarkable improvement in mortality in 2020 compared to 2019 was linked to controlled anthropogenic activities because of the COVID-19 pandemic. These reductions in PMs as well as in all-cause mortality led to significant improvement in air quality in 2020 compared to 2019.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103863"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mitigating coastal flood risks in the Sundarbans: A combined InVEST and machine learning approach","authors":"Ismail Mondal ,&nbsp;Vahnishikha Mishra ,&nbsp;SK Ariful Hossain ,&nbsp;Hamad Ahmed Altuwaijri ,&nbsp;Mukhiddin Juliev ,&nbsp;Amlan De","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103855","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103855","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adjacent marine, terrestrial, and climatic systems and their dynamic interactions impact the complex estuarine and coastal processes in the West Bengal portion of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM), known as the Sundarbans delta. Human expansion has designed the coastal sea, ponds, marshes, and estuary islands in this region to withstand the negative effects of societal, economic, recreational, and residential activities. Environmental factors such as increasing sea levels and climate change are significant sources of concern in this sensitive area. In recent decades, coastal flooding has emerged as a worldwide issue. Consequently, communities must prioritize the mitigation of flood risks. We use the InVEST and coastal flood risk mitigation (CFRM) model for the Sundarban deltaic region to analyze flood conditions caused by successive rainfalls of varying intensities and identify potential mitigating solutions. Increasing sea levels and global warming are endangering coastal regions to an escalating degree. Ongoing erosion and cyclones, which often deliver substantial rainfall, endanger human life and property, especially along low-lying deltaic coastlines. The Sundarbans and its mangrove ecosystems along India's east coast are vulnerable to tropical super-cyclones, and their resistance has diminished in recent decades owing to several adverse environmental stresses, including changing climate conditions. This study used the InVEST-CFRM model to evaluate the vulnerability of the Sundarbans' mangrove-fringed coastline in relation to flood volume and runoff attenuation index. We used the InVEST-CFRM model to assess the vulnerability of the intricate Indian Sundarbans. The study used machine learning (ML) methods to validate and predict the model, achieving a high accuracy value ranging from 0.76 to 0.99. The results demonstrate a steady increase in flooding along the deltaic coast of the Sundarbans in recent decades. The central regions of the Sundarbans are least vulnerable to flooding, but human settlements in these areas are most at risk. This research will provide effective mitigation techniques for restoring a sustainable environment and assist in identifying locations that are vulnerable to flooding and associated socioeconomic impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103855"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microplastic pollution in agricultural environments: Origins, impacts, and mitigation strategies","authors":"Shreya Singh ,&nbsp;Saraniya S ,&nbsp;Swati Sachdev ,&nbsp;Kumar Satish Sahoo ,&nbsp;Balram Ambade ,&nbsp;Kuldeep Bauddh","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103866","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103866","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microplastic contamination is an important global issue that has been increasing rapidly due to the increased application of plastic-based commodities in various sectors, in particular, agriculture, healthcare, personal care products, construction, textiles, etc. The waste generated through these sectors majorly remains unmanaged or mismanaged leading to the contamination of the terrestrial environment. Among various sectors, agriculture largely contributes to this problem owing to the intentional use of plastic-based products or unintentional application of contaminated materials. Plastics reaching to soil are migrated and disintegrated into small micro-size fragments leading to microplastic pollution. Migration is influenced by the number of soil characteristics, soil biota activities, and/or management choices, whereas transformation occurs via photo-degradation, microbial degradation, and/or mechanical abrasion. Microplastics on disintegration releases harmful additives and monomers in soil and act as carriers of toxic compounds, inducing serious risk toward living organisms. The ubiquitous occurrence of micro-sized plastic in agricultural ecosystems, mismanagement of waste, and the associated risk have ignited global concern. Thus, management of microplastic pollution is crucial, which requires an integrated approach at the individual as well as community level. Moreover, involvement of government, stakeholders, and policy-makers is crucial to meet the increasing challenge of microplastic pollution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103866"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater modelling applications coupled with space-based observations in groundwater-dependent assessments: A review on applications, challenges, and future research directions","authors":"Qawekazi Msesane ,&nbsp;Siyamthanda Gxokwe ,&nbsp;Timothy Dube","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103860","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103860","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the ecological significance of groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs), which rely on groundwater for sustainability and face increasing vulnerability due to environmental stresses. This has led to a substantial body of literature investigating various aspects of GDEs and their hydrogeological connectivity to underlying aquifers. Nevertheless, the field lacks a comprehensive synthesis that integrates theoretical models, spatial data integration, and advanced groundwater modeling techniques. Furthermore, GDEs confront escalating threats arising from land-use changes, climate variability, and groundwater depletion, it becomes imperative to identify research gaps and limitations in current methodologies and approaches. This imperative guide the development of effective conservation and management strategies. Thus, this review offers a comprehensive exploration, delving into the background and classification of GDEs. It further examines a range of models and conceptual frameworks employed to understand the hydrogeological connectivity to underlying aquifers, while also assessing the integration of spatial data with numerical models for groundwater modelling. However, there are concerns with regards to the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between remote sensing data and groundwater models, which leads to difficulties in integration. Furthermore, there is limited ground truth data, especially in remote areas, which further complicates validation efforts. However, this review identified the need for the integration of spatial data to groundwater numerical modelling to improve the accuracy of the model results by providing more detailed information about the geology and hydrogeology of the area being observed. Moreover, this review sheds light on the ecological significance of understanding GDE-aquifer connectivity and its critical role in conservation efforts within these ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103860"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical downscaling of climate variables for local forecasts and applications to improve climate change prediction in upper Blue Nile Basin","authors":"Abebe Tadesse Bulti,&nbsp;Gonse Amelo Yutura","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103867","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103867","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change studies are indeed crucial for sustainable and resilient development, especially in vulnerable regions. These studies help in understanding local climate change impacts under different scenarios, which is essential for water resource management, disaster mitigation, and agricultural development. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), in common with CanESM5 (CMIP6) and counterparts CanESM2 (CMIP5) was used to predict temperature and rainfall in the study basin. CanESM5 (CMIP6) predictions were higher than CanESM2 (CMIP5) for both rainfall and temperature. Both CanESM2 and CanESM5 outputs fit well with observed data (R² values of 0.8–0.9) suggest good model performance. This is consistent with other studies that have found GCMs, including CanESM models, to be effective in simulating climate parameters. Projection of increased rainfall (up to 120 mm and 250 mm monthly for CanESM2 and CanESM5 respectively) with some areas showing reduction (up to 50 mm) aligns with the general trend of increased variability in precipitation patterns under climate change scenarios. The projected temperature increases of 0.5–2 °C is consistent with global warming trends for maximum temperature. The variation in minimum temperatures was not significant at most stations, with some showing up to 1 °C increase, is noteworthy and may have implications for local ecosystems and agriculture. Statistical downscaling works well for average predictions but struggles with extreme events is an important limitation to note. This aligns with the general challenges in climate modeling, where capturing extreme events remains a significant area for improvement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"138 ","pages":"Article 103867"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}