Vijay Pal Meena , Nafees Ahmad , Rimjhim Singh , Arun Vyas , Amit Kumar , Sunil Kumar , Manoj Kumar
{"title":"Fluoride variability in groundwater: Hydro-geochemical influences and risk assessment in an arid region of Northwestern India","authors":"Vijay Pal Meena , Nafees Ahmad , Rimjhim Singh , Arun Vyas , Amit Kumar , Sunil Kumar , Manoj Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the underlying hydrogeochemical mechanisms driving fluoride (F<sup>-</sup>) enrichments in groundwater and its associated health risks in the arid region of Northwest India. Groundwater samples were systematically collected from multiple villages in the Ladnu block of Rajasthan during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons of 2023. Concentrations of F<sup>-</sup> were analyzed to assess their spatial variability and the governing hydrogeochemical processes. The concentrations of F<sup>-</sup> surpassed the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) 2012 and the World Health Organization (WHO) 2022 -permissible limits of 1.5 mg/L in 45 samples across 34 villages during both seasonal periods. The highest F<sup>-</sup> content was observed in the eastern part of the study area, with peak values recorded in Tanwara village, while Datau village displayed the lowest concentrations. The alkaline nature of groundwater coupled with the semi-arid climate, enhances F<sup>-</sup> mobilization. The water quality index (WQI) indicates seasonal fluctuations in groundwater quality, with elevated F<sup>-</sup> levels presenting potential health hazards in the order of infants > children > adults. Multivariate statistical analysis, including PCA and other hydrochemical proxies, indicates that evaporation and rock-water interaction are the primary processes controlling F<sup>−</sup> enrichment along with co-existing chemical species. The findings indicate that the groundwater in study area is under both quantitative and qualitative stress, requiring continuous monitoring and sustainable management strategies. Policy implementation aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6 is essential to mitigate F<sup>-</sup> contamination and ensure the long-term sustainability of this vital resource.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104029"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muhsan Ehsan , Gohar Hammayun Khan Raja , Afifa Tassaduq , Waqas Naseem , Muhammad Ali , Kamal Abdelrahman , Ali Y. Kahal
{"title":"Comparison of surface and subsurface limestone reservoir properties: key insights derived from the analysis of geological and geophysical datasets","authors":"Muhsan Ehsan , Gohar Hammayun Khan Raja , Afifa Tassaduq , Waqas Naseem , Muhammad Ali , Kamal Abdelrahman , Ali Y. Kahal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fimkassar Oil Field (FOF) is located in the Potwar Sub Basin, having a fractured carbonate supply that includes reservoir formations (Chorgali-Sakesar). The Sakesar Limestone, considered a significant and established reservoir in numerous oil and gas fields in the Potwar Plateau, was evaluated for reservoir potential in the current work. This study conducts a petrophysical analysis to evaluate hydrocarbon potential, as well as an analysis of outcrop and core samples to investigate the porosity and permeability of the Sakesar Limestone. Seismic data structure interpretation was performed to assess the subsurface structure patterns, and seismic attributes were employed to identify fractures in Sakesar Limestone. The reservoir petrophysical properties were compared with the core samples analysis results of the Sakesar Limestone. The porosity and permeability of outcrop and core samples of Sakesar Limestone were determined in the laboratory. Two wells of the FOF have been taken for well log interpretation. The porosity calculated from the outcrop and core samples is 0.68 %–11.65 % and 3.86 %–10.76 %, respectively. The permeability calculated from the outcrop samples ranges from 0.0 to 26.82 mD. The lithological cross-plots were used to identify the lithology, and rock physics analysis provided information on the fluid type present in the formation. The correlation of the reservoir properties indicated that Sakesar Limestone has hydrocarbon potential and is a good reservoir.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104027"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hui Zhao , Wei Sun , Chenhua Jin , Xiaoming Wu , Bo Gao
{"title":"Effectiveness of fine aggregate particle size distribution on the properties and the sustainable of self-consolidating concrete (SCC)","authors":"Hui Zhao , Wei Sun , Chenhua Jin , Xiaoming Wu , Bo Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Self-consolidating concrete (SCC) is the complex three-phase composite materials, the characteristics of fine aggregate in SCC play an important role on the properties of SCC. Series SCC mixtures were prepared using river sand fine aggregates at different grain size distributions (fineness modulus: FM). The effectiveness of river sand FM on the behaviors and the sustainability of SCC was evaluated. The employment of finer river sand particles in SCC lowers the initial fluidity, fluidity retention, passing ability, segregation risk and air content of SCC. River sand of fine particle size distribution in SCC positively effects the early strength of SCC. Prolonged curing time reduces the benefits of fine river sand grain on the long-term mechanical strength of SCC. SCC made by finer grain river sand exhibits the higher apparent density and lower permeable void volume, compared to SCC made by coarse-grain river sand (FM:3.43). The application of finer river sand to SCC enhances the risk of absorbing water into SCC and dry shrinkage of SCC, it limits the carbon dioxide and chloride-ion penetrations inside hardened SCC. The grain size distribution reduction of river sand has a positive help to improve the energy efficiency and economic efficiency in the production of SCC. Practical, durability and sustainability SCC can be obtained by controlling river sand particle size at a proper range.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104024"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144724709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Halil İbrahim Şenol , Oguz Simsek , Abdurahman Yasin Yiğit , Veysi Kartal
{"title":"Multi-source assessment of drought risk in Lake Eğirdir under climate change","authors":"Halil İbrahim Şenol , Oguz Simsek , Abdurahman Yasin Yiğit , Veysi Kartal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, shoreline changes in Lake Eğirdir, Türkiye, were investigated over a 34-year period (1990–2024) through the application of remote sensing, GIS-based coastal analysis (DSAS- Digital Shoreline Analysis System) and statistical trend methodologies. Landsat images and meteorological data are analysed together to evaluate the relationship between climate variability and shoreline dynamics. The findings show that there is a significant shoreline erosion, especially in the northern and western regions, with the End Point Rate (EPR) values reaching −23.6 m/year and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) values reaching −11.23 m/year. According to the results of statistical trend analysis methods (Mann-Kendall-MK and Spearman Rho-SR) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods (sorted and unsorted), while the change in precipitation remained relatively constant, it was determined that the dominant factors contributing to water loss are significantly increasing temperature and potential evaporation (PET) trends. In addition, the most remarkable correlation between lake parameters and PET values is found. This research uniquely combines climate-induced hydrological stressors with shoreline displacement patterns, providing new insights into lake evolution compared to other studies. The results highlight the need for sustainable water management strategies and predictive modeling to mitigate future degradation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104030"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing the effects of climate and land use/land cover changes on runoff in the Mangrove Forests of the Northern Persian Gulf","authors":"Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari , Reza Chamani","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangrove forests are increasingly threatened by rapid Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and climate variability. This study analyzes spatio-temporal dynamics of the Nayband mangrove forests in the northern Persian Gulf, Iran, for 1990, 2003, 2022, and a projected 2030, using a Markov chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network. Additionally, maximum 24-h rainfall data (2003–2017) were analyzed using the Weibull method to estimate return periods of 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100 years. To assess climate change impacts, daily rainfall data from ACCESS-ESM1-5, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MRI-ESM2-0 models under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios were downscaled using the LARS-WG model. The Soil Conservation Service method estimated runoff height and volume under various climate change and LULC conditions. Under 2030 LULC projections relative to 2022, runoff volumes are expected to decline by 4.88 %, 3.15 %, 2.44 %, 1.09 %, and 0.96 % across the aforementioned return periods under SSP126. SSP245 shows smaller reductions of 1.51 %, 1.02 %, 0.78 %, 0.15 %, and 0.65 %. In contrast, the SSP585 scenario projects an increase in runoff volume, with corresponding rises of 16.28 %, 12.09 %, 21.32 %, 9.59 %, and 9.21 %. The analysis revealed that runoff variability was more significantly affected by climate change than by LULC change. Accordingly, the findings of this study provide a valuable foundation for shaping management strategies focused on the restoration and expansion of mangrove forests, while also supporting informed development planning within this predominantly industrial region, defined by petrochemical, oil, and gas operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104025"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144665816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrey Melnikov , Ze Zhang , Qingkai Yan , Tatiana Romanis
{"title":"Spatio-temporal changes in the annual frequency of freeze-thaw cycles in Russia","authors":"Andrey Melnikov , Ze Zhang , Qingkai Yan , Tatiana Romanis","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The annual frequency of freeze-thaw cycles (AFFTC) on the Earth's surface affects many natural components: landscape, ecosystems, engineering infrastructure, etc. However, the nature of changes over time and the driving forces of the AFFTC for the territory of Russia today remains largely undocumented. Based on an analysis of archival meteorological materials from more than 500 meteorological stations and posts, including those dating back to the last century, the article proposes zoning schemes for individual regions of Russia according to AFFTC data. Using a statistical tool based on the phenomenon of spatially stratified heterogeneity (SSH), the influence of various factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) on AFFTC was assessed. In the study area from 2005 to 2023, in comparison with 1980, areas with a higher value of AFFTC are shown to have increased. It is also confirmed that latitude and altitude are the variables with the greatest explanatory power, i.e., having the greatest influence on the AFFTC. Altitude above sea level has a particularly significant impact on the AFFTC in the range of 541–1850 m when the average annual air temperature is in the range of −3.9 … −0.8 °C. The observed formation of AFFTC features at the regional level appears to have a universal character and can thus be applied to solve a wide range of problems in assessing and forecasting climatic conditions, explain engineering-geological properties and predicting the degree of cryogenic transformation of soils with various structural connections, as well as forming a basis for recommending measures for environmental management and developing corresponding engineering construction standards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104031"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144687445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fraz Khalid , Arif Nazir , Saeed Abbas , Munawar Iqbal
{"title":"Geochemical fingerprinting of hydrocarbon sources using oil-to-oil correlation: Petroleum system evolution in the surghar range, Upper Indus Basin","authors":"Fraz Khalid , Arif Nazir , Saeed Abbas , Munawar Iqbal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focusses on the biomarkers and non-biomarkers analysis performed on different crude oils samples representing three oil fields (Mela, Chanda and Nashpa), from Upper Indus Basin. Various physicochemical & analytical techniques have been employed. Full suite of n-alkanes, high ratio of saturates/aromatics, high American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity, low isoprenoid/n-alkane ratio and low sulfur specify typical light non-biodegraded crude oil. Low sulfur (<1 %) and high pr/ph ratio (1.88–3.7) suggest that the depositional environments of marine organic matter (OM) are typically oxic in nature. The relative distributions of C<sub>27</sub>–C<sub>28</sub>–C<sub>29</sub> ααα-20R steranes, C<sub>19</sub> and C<sub>23</sub> tricyclic terpanes (TT) along with Pr/<em>n</em>C<sub>17</sub> against Ph/<em>n</em>C<sub>18</sub> plot suggests that the crude oils mainly consist of marine OM likely from algal origin. These crude oils are sourced from the mature OM as evidenced from the isomerization ratios of C<sub>29</sub> steranes, C<sub>32</sub>22S/(22S + 22R) homohopanes and carbon preference index. Aromatic biomarkers DBT/P and MPI indicate OM as oxic and mature source of hydrocarbons. The findings of this study enhanced the exploration strategies by identifying the light crude oil characteristics and OM origins, facilitating targeted drilling and extraction efforts in the region. Since the bulk geochemical properties and maturity of Mela, Chanda and Nashpa oil fields are alike, it can be concluded that oil within the reservoirs are quite similar indicating common source rocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104023"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144670690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comparative study of predicted and actual rock mass condition in Himalayan railway tunnels","authors":"Vikas Yadav, Ashutosh Kainthola","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rishikesh-Karnprayag BG Rail Link project in Uttarakhand Himalaya, presents excavation challenges due to the complex geological setting. This study investigates discrepancies between predicted and actual rock mass conditions, encountered during the excavation of the package-5 tunnel. Despite thorough pre-construction investigation, through bore log data, in-situ tests and geophysical surveys, substantial deviations in rock quality were observed during the construction. Deviation in rock mass conditions force change in support classes, ultimately overrunning the project cost. This study aims to investigate the disparity between the predicted and actual rock mass conditions, with respect to overburden thickness. RMR, Q-System and ÖNORM B 2203, have been utilized to discern the rockmass character. A total of 632 data points were collected in the field. Lithology, presence of shear zones, and overburden thickness have been discussed to understand variance between predicted and actual rockmass condition, during the excavation. Study highlights the presence of shear zones and other uncertainties play a crucial role in discrepancies between predicted and actual conditions. At shallower depths, overestimation of rockmass is identified, with actual RMR values being lesser, along with high deviations. As overburden depth increases, the predicted and actual rockmass distributions become more aligned and fall close to each other. Additionally, four different predictive models—Random Forest (RF), Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) are also employed in this study to estimate actual rockmass, using predicted rockmass and overburden thickness as features. This research will ultimately aid in better planning and cost management for future Himalayan tunneling projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104026"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Bhuvaneswari , V. Gopal , R. Vinoth , R. Aakash , N.M. Swetha , S. Vinoth kumar , R.R. Krishnamurthy , M.Suresh Gandhi , Renuka Sharma , Ramamoorthy Ayyamperumal
{"title":"Emerging contaminants in urban Soils: Characterization, sources, and environmental impacts of microplastics in southern India","authors":"M. Bhuvaneswari , V. Gopal , R. Vinoth , R. Aakash , N.M. Swetha , S. Vinoth kumar , R.R. Krishnamurthy , M.Suresh Gandhi , Renuka Sharma , Ramamoorthy Ayyamperumal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Microplastic (MP) contamination in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly urban soils, has emerged as a growing environmental concern with limited empirical data from rapidly developing regions. This study investigates the concentration, distribution, and chemical composition of microplastics (MPs) in urban soils across Chennai, India. Twenty-five soil samples were collected from diverse locations and analysed for physicochemical properties, including pH (7.0–9.8) and organic matter content (0.19 %–23.6 %). MPs underwent extraction through zinc chloride-based density separation and vacuum filtration, followed by categorization by shape and color. Fragments and fibers dominated, with white/transparent and blue/purple being the most frequent colors. Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy identified polypropylene, polystyrene, and nylon as the most common polymers. MP counts ranged from 6 to 31 particles per 100 g of soil, with Sample 18 showing the highest concentration. To assess contamination levels, the Pollution Load Index (PLI) was calculated and the values ranged from 1.00 to 2.27, placing all sites within Hazard Category I, indicating low to moderate pollution. Spatial mapping indicated localized hotspots, likely driven by land use and waste disposal practices. Statistical analysis using Spearman's and Pearson's correlations revealed a significant negative relationship between MP abundance and soil organic matter (Pearson's r = −0.512, p = 0.013), while correlations with pH remained weak and statistically insignificant. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) demonstrated a strong inverse relationship between MP counts and organic matter, along with a positive association with soil pH. These variables together accounted for over 60 % of the total variance, highlighting the multifaceted influence of MPs on soil properties. This research emphasizes the increasing presence of MPs in urban environments and supports the need for ongoing monitoring and mitigation through bioremediation, adoption of biodegradable alternatives, enhanced waste infrastructure, and public engagement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104022"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mehmet Berkant Yıldız , Sinan Nacar , Murat Şan , Murat Kankal
{"title":"Spatial and temporal patterns of drought under different scenarios for Türkiye in the 21st century","authors":"Mehmet Berkant Yıldız , Sinan Nacar , Murat Şan , Murat Kankal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.104028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Türkiye for two distinct future periods: the near future (2021–2050) and the far future (2071–2100), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). High-resolution regional climate projections from 19 GCM-RCM combinations within the EURO-CORDEX framework were evaluated. Based on performance analysis against ERA5-Land data, the four best-performing models were selected for multi-model ensemble averaging (MMEA). Drought conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Three trend analysis methods, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's Slope, were applied to examine spatiotemporal drought patterns. SPI-based analyses show a significant increase in short- and medium-term variability (SPI-3 and SPI-6) and long-term droughts (SPI-12), especially in the Central Anatolia, Southeastern and Eastern regions. The applied trend detection methods consistently point to a widespread drying tendency, with more pronounced changes projected in the latter half of the century. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, although the drought signals are less severe, the persistence of negative trends highlights that Türkiye will still be at risk, even with moderate efforts to mitigate climate change. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrating climate-driven drought projections into national and regional planning efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"140 ","pages":"Article 104028"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144678820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}