Physics and Chemistry of the Earth最新文献

{"title":"Impact of sea level rise on groundwater in ancient Olympos: Modeling from ∼500 BC to today","authors":"Bilge Bingul ,&nbsp;Emrah Pekkan ,&nbsp;Serdar Korkmaz ,&nbsp;Muammer Tun ,&nbsp;Sunay Mutlu","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the ancient port city of Olympos, located in Antalya, Türkiye, groundwater rise due to long-term sea-level increase threatens significant archaeological structures. Historically, an ancient lake in the northern part of the city, once drained by channels, has transformed into a swamp due to sediment accumulation and channel dysfunctionality, resulting in raised groundwater levels. Consequently, structures like the Building with Mosaics (BM), a prominent archaeological structure from the Early Byzantine Period, have become partially submerged. To investigate this phenomenon, a detailed field study was conducted in May 2017, where meteorological data (precipitation and evapotranspiration), geological, hydrogeological, and high-precision topographic measurements were collected. Groundwater levels were monitored via observation wells, and a tracer test using Rhodamine WT was conducted to estimate hydraulic conductivity. These datasets were utilized to develop steady-state groundwater flow models for three periods (∼500 BC, ∼AD 1, and the present) using MODFLOW software. Results indicated groundwater level increases around BM from approximately 0.33 m (∼500 BC) to 1.62 m (∼AD 1) and 3.55 m (present day). Additionally, the ancient lake's area decreased significantly from 30,000 m² (∼AD 1) to 14,325 m² currently due to sedimentation. These findings underscore how sea-level rise and sedimentation influence groundwater dynamics, highlighting the necessity for targeted groundwater management strategies to safeguard archaeological heritage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103960"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated PSInSAR and SBAS-InSAR analysis for landslide detection and monitoring","authors":"Sajid Hussain ,&nbsp;Bin Pan ,&nbsp;Wajid Hussain ,&nbsp;Meer Muhammad Sajjad ,&nbsp;Muhammad Ali ,&nbsp;Zeeshan Afzal ,&nbsp;M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud ,&nbsp;Aqil Tariq","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Lower Hunza section of the Karakoram Highway (KKH) in Northern Pakistan is highly prone to landslides due to gravity, tectonic stress, and erosion from glaciers and rivers, posing significant threats to infrastructure, communities, and KKH. Accurate and efficient detection and monitoring are essential for disaster monitoring and early warning. This study utilized Sentinel-1 SAR data over two years, combining Permanent Scatterers Synthetic Aperture Radar (PSInSAR) and Small Baseline Subset (SBAS-InSAR) technologies to address individual technique limitations, such as potential error accumulation of SBAS and sparse scatterer distribution of PSInSAR. The PSInSAR technique has a 12.5 % higher mean coherence than SBAS, but the density of pixels in the PSInSAR method is nine times less than that of SBAS. The combined approach revealed average displacement rates ranging from 57 mm/year (uplift) to −146 mm/year (subsidence) and identified 36 potential landslides. The landslides located in Khana Abad and Nagar Khas were found to be the most active, displacing with the mean slope deformation of 23.42 and 54.26 mm annually. The spatial distribution and deformation characteristics were meticulously analyzed, highlighting the significant influence of regional geological structures, including lithology and fault lines, on landslide activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103956"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lithological mapping, elemental and thermal characterization of Menouna coal in Abadla Basin for potential applications","authors":"Ahmed Yacine Acila ,&nbsp;Mahmoud E.A. Eid ,&nbsp;Aleksey V. Nastavkin","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study provides characterization of Menouna coal from the Abadla Basin, Algeria, using a multidisciplinary approach that integrates geological mapping, lithological logging, proximate and ultimate analyses, and calorific measurements of Higher and Lower Heating Value (HHV/LHV). Analytical techniques, conducted in accordance with international standards (ASTM and ISO), reveal key properties, including a moisture content of 7.2 %, ash content of 6.6 %, fixed carbon content of 46.4 % and a high organic carbon content of 75.6 %. The coal was classified as medium-grade bituminous with a low sulfur content (1.015 %), making it suitable for environmentally friendly applications. The HHV analysis yielded an average value of 34.00 MJ/kg, while the LHV analysis showed an average value of 32.78 MJ/kg, confirming the coal's significant energy potential. These findings highlight Menouna coal's suitability for power generation, cement production, and metallurgical processes, while aligning with global efforts to reduce emissions and promote sustainable energy use. The study underscores the strategic importance of Menouna mine in Algeria's energy landscape and provides essential data for future resource exploration and management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103955"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143911536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancements in regional geological Surveys: Insights from the 2024 China national regional geological survey conference and a six-year uranium exploration case study in Shaoguan, Guangdong","authors":"Jianan Zhao ,&nbsp;Chonghao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amidst growing global demand for mineral resources and intensified ecological imperatives, regional geological surveys have emerged as pivotal tools for advancing sustainable resource extraction and environmental stewardship. Current approaches, however, face critical limitations in technological integration, multi-source data interoperability, and adaptability to geologically complex terrains. This review synthesizes insights from China's 2024 National Geological Survey Conference and a six-year uranium exploration program in Shaoguan, Guangdong, systematically evaluating transformative advancements in survey methodologies. The analysis reveals how the synergistic application of hyperspectral remote sensing, geophysical inversion, and geochemical analytics enables precise identification of uranium-enriched zones while resolving long-standing tensions between exploration efficiency and ecological preservation. Key findings demonstrate that intelligent data fusion architectures reduce exploration cycles by 40 % compared to conventional workflows, while blockchain-enabled geodata-sharing protocols increase international collaboration efficacy by 67 % in pilot transcontinental projects. The study further establishes quantitative linkages between metallogenic models and tectonic evolution patterns through machine learning-enhanced 3D geological modeling. By proposing a policy-integrated exploration paradigm that balances mineral recovery rates with habitat conservation metrics, this work establishes a replicable framework for climate-resilient mining practices. These innovations redefine regional survey capabilities in deep mineral targeting and provide scalable solutions for critical mineral security in developing regions with heterogeneous geological settings, ultimately bridging technological sovereignty with global environmental governance imperatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103953"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From urban sprawl to aquifer strain: The hydrological consequences of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Mitidja plain, Algeria","authors":"Imene Senadi ,&nbsp;Ayoub Zeroual ,&nbsp;Hind Meddi","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effects of land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on groundwater recharge in the Mitidja plain, Algeria, from 1983 to 2023. By utilizing remote sensing data and a water balance approach in Google Earth Engine (GEE), the research analyzes the relationship between historical LULC changes and hydrological processes. Results reveal a 38.30 % increase in urban areas and a 28.04 % decrease in agricultural land, leading to a drastic reduction in groundwater recharge (40 %). The most severe deficits occurred between 2007 and 2015, with recharge values falling as low as −600 mm/year. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS–CN) method demonstrated significant shifts in hydrological dynamics, as Curve Number (CN) values for Hydrologic Soil Group (HSG) B increased from 81 to 92, and for HSG C from 88 to 94, reflecting reduced soil infiltration and higher runoff. Despite this trend, the southern Mitidja characterized by lower urbanization maintained recharge rates of up to 200 mm/year. The Modified Mann-Kendall test showed an increase significant trend of +10,59 Mm³/year in recharge for woodland areas, while urban zones exhibited a weak, non-significant negative trend −1,25 Mm³/year. This study emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable land management practices to mitigate the adverse effects of LULCC on groundwater resources. It underscores the value of integrating remote sensing data into water management strategies for improving groundwater conservation and land use planning in semi-arid regions, offering critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103951"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated optical and SAR data analysis for the monsoonal flood hazard mapping in the Tawi Basin Northwest Himalaya","authors":"Ajay Kumar Taloor ,&nbsp;Varun Khajuria ,&nbsp;Savati Sharma ,&nbsp;Gurnam Parsad ,&nbsp;Shiwalika Sambyal ,&nbsp;Girish Ch Kothyari ,&nbsp;Meenakshi Sharma ,&nbsp;Pankaj Mehta","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monsoon forcing significantly impacts flood hazards, intense and prolonged monsoon rains exacerbate flood risks by rapidly increasing river discharge and overwhelming drainage systems, especially in regions with unplanned infrastructure or altered land use. In the study, to define Flood Hazard Zonation (FHZ) in terms of risk assessment, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was employed to integrate different thematic layers and ascertain the relative importance of criteria in the Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The FHZ results shows that 103.81 Km² (3.50 %) of the region was classified as very high-risk by the FHZ, while 617.17 Km² (20.82 %), 865.87 Km² (29.21 %), 1119.42 Km² (37.77 %), and 257.73 Km² (8.70 %) were classified as high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk. Further, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) based backscatter images of the floodwater area were demarcated for two periods in order to validate the FHZ area based on GIS data. Furthermore, an inundation region of roughly 216.37 km² was revealed by pre-processing SAR data, change detection analysis of pre-flood photos, flood-image thresholding, and the creation of flood inundation maps using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The findings showed that flood hazard evaluations, mitigation strategies, and quick post-flood management could be achieved with the help of both optical and SAR-based techniques.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103948"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Artificial neural networks for estimating historical daily missing evaporation to support sustainable development in Saudi Arabia","authors":"Samyah Salem Refadah ,&nbsp;Mohd Yawar Ali Khan","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evaporation (EVAP) is a crucial component of the water cycle; however, its estimation is challenging due to its complexity and numerous influencing factors. Estimating EVAP is essential for identifying the environmental effects of heavy metals. It enables the forecasting of contamination risks, concentration changes, and the establishment of suitable mitigation suggestions, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. This research presents a novel approach to evaluating the efficacy of regional models in estimating missing EVAP at a gauging location in the Al-Medina region. The estimates were generated using time series data on wind speed (WS), relative humidity (RH), temperature (TEMP), and evaporation (EVAP) from January to December (1974–1977; 2007–2009) through models employing the artificial neural network (ANN) feedforward backpropagation (FFBP) technique. The initial phase involved the development and training of the ANN, utilizing the FFBP technique in MATLAB (Version R2015a). The optimal network was then used to predict the EVAP values for 1974–1976, a missing parameter at the gauging site, by employing TEMP, RH, WS, and EVAP data from 2007 to 2009. The second stage includes verifying the predicted EVAP values (1974–1976) by using them to estimate the EVAP values for 1977 at gauged sites. Four ANNs (T1-T4) with distinct configurations were built and trained using the FFBP algorithm. The model's predicted values are compared with the actual EVAP values observed at measurement sites. The value of R² for the optimal topology was determined to be 0.981, with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.019.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103949"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations in the compositional profile of polycyclic aromatic moieties in coals from Bara, Patala and Salt Range formations: Insights into the mechanisms affecting the sedimentary record","authors":"Arif Nazir ,&nbsp;Qaiser Hussain ,&nbsp;Saeed Abbas ,&nbsp;Fraz Khalid ,&nbsp;Muhammad Deen ,&nbsp;Abid Ali ,&nbsp;Munawar Iqbal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on the variations in concentration and composition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in different sedimentary records from Baluchistan, Sindh, and Punjab. Proximate and ultimate analyses, especially calorific values characterized Padhrar coal as bituminous A, Duki coal as highly volatile bituminous C, and sub-bituminous C class for Lakhra coal. The geochemical profile of organic matter was determined using substituted naphthalenes, phenanthrenes, and dibenzothiophenes ratios. Coal samples were thermally mature and indicated shale type lithology as evidenced by geochemical criteria. Moreover, the presence of depositional environmental biomarkers like benzothiophene and alkyl benzothiophene indicated the carbonate evaporate depositional environment, whilst the presence of 1-methylphenanthrene, pyrene, benzopyrene, and perylene in the aromatic fraction revealed the dominance of terrestrial organic matter.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103950"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143856104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral decomposition’ application images early-Cretaceous tectonically-controlled shallow-marine unconventional shale gas-bearing resources, SW-Asian Indus rift basin: Inverted velocity and density structural simulations","authors":"Muhammad Tayyab Naseer","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103947","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Incised marine valleys (IV) are hot topics in unconventional shale gas exploration. These depositional systems are developed during the rapid fall and subsequent slow rise in the sea level. The reservoir shale lenses are trapped in the naturally fractured shale facies of IV. Therefore, the natural fractures and fault systems inside this IV have an enormous impact on the perpendicular and horizontal movement of hydrocarbon-posture fluids. Every combination trap of a petroleum system has an exact fine-tuning frequency, which can remain useable for resolving the reservoir and seal. This study develops a cost-economic petroleum system using seismic attributes, broadband spectral decomposition-based inverted density structural simulation and inverted velocity structural simulation for imaging natural fractures and fault systems in the SW-Asian onshore Indus rift basin. A band-pass frequency filter of 6–22-48-62 Hz was applied on the IV with two lower-peak and higher-peak tuning frequencies of 22-Hz and 48-Hz. The 22-Hz tuning frequency resolves this IV architecture at its greatest plausible location of gas-posture reserves. The traditional mapping shows poor competence to image a fractured system. The 22-Hz frequency has resolved the dense fracture system in the westernmost region. 48-Hz frequency has resolved the top seal of fracture-less zones to provide high-density zones to stop vertical migrations of gas-bearing fluids inside the reservoir shale lenses of IV. The inverted velocity structural simulations have poorly imaged the E-W transforms fault. The 22-Hz frequency-based inverted density structural simulations have resolved the en-echelon geometry along a high-amplitude anomalous and E-W oriented transform fault from a point of inflexion of fractured reservoir shale lenses from source to reservoir beds of IV. The lateral extent of this en-echelon structure is ∼1.35 km with a vertical depth of ∼3281–3299 m. The inverted density structural simulation has resolved two transform faults, which were imaged at depths of 3282 and 3298 m. The zone between pseudo-densities of 2.1–2.4 g/c.c shows uniform sedimentations inside the IV. This implicates the deposition of laterally continuous and fractured fluvial-dominated reservoir shale reservoir lenses. The inverted density structural simulations have also resolved the least angle (&lt;∼2&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt;) of the combination trap at pseudo-densities of 2.1–2.4 gm./c.c. No vertical amplitude anomaly could be imaged for predicting the intensity of fractures and upward migration from source to reservoir beds, which implicates the regionally established traps inside the IV. The fractured reservoir has accumulated the shale gas-bearing fluids inside the IV, which implicates the tectonic subsidence. The combination trap experiences inclinations increase to 35&lt;sup&gt;o&lt;/sup&gt; at a 2.6 gm./c.c pseudo-density. Hence, inverted density structural simulation shows strong implications for the horizontal migrations of ","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103947"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143895108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought susceptibility prediction using novel hybridized methods based on reliability of drought and non-drought samples","authors":"Ran Zhou ,&nbsp;Alireza Arabameri ,&nbsp;M. Santosh ,&nbsp;Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam ,&nbsp;Most Mastura Munia Farjana Jion","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural droughts are a periodic phenomenon in many regions of the word. Reducing damages to crops from drought events requires increasing the precision of agricultural drought mapping and making forecasts. However, there are very few studies that employ cutting-edge ensemble learning methods to estimate the risk of agricultural drought. In order to strengthen predictions of agricultural drought risk in a systematically explicit manner, we propose and evaluate ensemble models grounded on the credal decision tree (CDT) with Decorate (CDT-Decorate) supervised learning approaches as a case study in Iran. In the Esfahan Province of Iran, a thorough evaluation of the possibility of agricultural drought was conducted. This assessment coupled the five risk components—vulnerability, hazard, exposure, and mitigation—with the parameters that were suitable. Eighteen drought conditioning factors were identified and used to build both the training and validation datasets. A number of evaluation measures that showed the ensemble model's capacity to explain the underlying spatial pattern of agricultural drought events within the research area and forecast the likelihood of future drought phenomena that were used to validate the models. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUCROC) showed that the ensemble CDT-Decorate model was better than the CDT model (AUCROC = 0.755) because it had an AUCROC value of 0.962. When assessing the risk of agricultural drought, the most important elements are population density, land usage, land cover, and distance to the river. The center region, with its intermediate risk (17 %), has a significant disruption of human agricultural activities; the southern region, with its very high risk (16 %), should receive the greatest attention due to its high susceptibility, significant hazardousness, and limited mitigation capability. An analysis of the models' e performances revealed that the ensemble model offered a trustworthy assessment of the risks associated with agricultural drought, and the risk maps it produced are suitable for drought mitigation techniques in the agricultural sector and could be applied in other drought-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103940"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}