Physics and Chemistry of the Earth最新文献

{"title":"High-resolution analysis and prediction of heavy precipitation-induced GLOF events in North Sikkim Himalayas using the WRF model","authors":"Peeyush Gupta ,&nbsp;M. Sudhanshu Shekhar ,&nbsp;Gyan Prakash Singh ,&nbsp;Dev Sen Gupta ,&nbsp;Amreek Singh ,&nbsp;Amit Kumar ,&nbsp;Rupesh Kumar ,&nbsp;Dharmendra Singh Tomar","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The northern Sikkim Himalaya hosts numerous high-altitude glacial lakes, many of which exhibit rapid expansion, rendering them highly susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These events release substantial volumes of water downstream, posing significant hydrometeorological hazards. The downstream regions of Sikkim, particularly the lower Teesta basin, experience flood hazards due to both direct precipitation and enhanced discharge from upstream glacial lakes. Among these, South Lhonak Lake (SLL), one of the largest lakes in the Teesta basin, has undergone rapid volumetric expansion, making it a critical hotspot for GLOF hazards. The study explores the application of the WRF model for GLOF-related research, offering a novel approach to understanding and predicting such events. This study used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate and analyze heavy precipitation events across Sikkim, with a specific focus on the GLOF-triggering precipitation event of October 3–4, 2023, over the SLL region. The results suggest that intense precipitation, coupled with ice mass instability and lateral moraine failure, acted as the primary triggers for the catastrophic GLOF. Model simulations were conducted using high-resolution precipitation data acquired from the newly deployed X-band Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) installed by DGRE-DRDO at NIT Sikkim. The resulting outburst flood caused extensive damage to settlements, infrastructure, and hydropower projects along its course, extending several tens of kilometers downstream. The findings underscore the urgent need for an integrated monitoring framework combining high-resolution numerical weather prediction, satellite-based glacial lake surveillance, and real-time radar observations. This study represents the first application of the WRF model for GLOF-related precipitation forecasting in Sikkim, demonstrating its potential for enhancing early warning capabilities and risk mitigation strategies in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103968"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144131133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating water quality using the Geographical Detector Model in Hong Kong","authors":"Yusef Kheyruri ,&nbsp;Ahmad Sharafati ,&nbsp;Seyed Babak Haji Seyed Asadollah ,&nbsp;Arezoo Ariyaei ,&nbsp;Asaad Shakir Hameed ,&nbsp;Reza Farzad","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing water quality is one of the most important fields in water resources management and environmental science. In this context, physical and chemical water parameters, including Water Temperature (WT), pH, Salinity (SAL), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), and concentrations of trace elements like iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), and barium (Ba) play a crucial role in evaluating water quality. The Geographical Detector Model (GDM) is a powerful statistical tool that can be used to analyze and predict the impact of these parameters on water quality by examining variance and data heterogeneity. A notable advantage of GDM is that it can also effectively analyze the relationship between physical and chemical parameters. In this study, we used GDM to analyze 7 physical and 16 chemical parameters that influence the Water Quality Index (WQI), considering both their individual effects and interactions in all rivers of Hong Kong. The findings showed that Suspended Solids (SS) had the greatest impact among physical parameters (0.45) on WQI, while Total Phosphorus (TP) was the most impactful chemical parameter (0.85). Additionally, the results revealed that Turbidity (TUR) and Conductivity (CON) showed the strongest positive interaction among physical parameters (0.93), while the highest interaction among chemical parameters was observed between Al and TP (0.92). Generally, the study suggested that chemical parameters had a greater influence on WQI compared to physical parameters. In other words, WQI showed greater susceptibility to chemical parameter variations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103971"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the temperature field in coal-rock mass and the temporal and spatial evolution of overburden damage in the tar-rich coal pyrolysis zone","authors":"He Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiang Sun ,&nbsp;Jishi Geng ,&nbsp;Qingmin Shi ,&nbsp;Shengze Xue ,&nbsp;Jiyuan Duan ,&nbsp;Kexin Yu ,&nbsp;Pei Li ,&nbsp;Aifang Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103970","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103970","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tar-rich coal is a type of coal resource that produces oil and gas through low-temperature pyrolysis. In-situ pyrolysis is crucial for reducing global carbon emissions, protecting the ecological environment, and improving engineering safety and benefits. In this study, a physical simulation test system was constructed for the in-situ pyrolysis of tar-rich coal to monitor the change of formation temperature during tar-rich coal pyrolysis in real time. Furthermore, the fracture development characteristics of overlying strata caused by temperature field changes were analyzed. The results demonstrated that as the heating time increased, the horizontal temperature field of each layer evolved into the high-temperature center. Moreover, the vertical temperature field transitioned from a low temperature in the middle and high temperatures on both sides to a symmetrical distribution of higher temperatures in the middle than on both sides. The fracture development degree was considerably higher in the middle and lower parts of the same stratum. Horizontal and vertical cracks were observed in the middle of the mudstone layer, and the broken rocks were larger. Furthermore, the fracture degree of rock mass on both sides was higher than that in the middle part, with the separation from the rock being relatively smooth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103970"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial distribution and stoichiometric characteristics of the topsoil macronutrients in the Sundarbans","authors":"Md Abdul Hakim ,&nbsp;Ehsanul Bari ,&nbsp;Md Kamrul Islam ,&nbsp;Md Taufikur Rahman ,&nbsp;Mahi Muzammel Rofi ,&nbsp;Md Alinur Rahman ,&nbsp;Md Hasibur Rahaman ,&nbsp;Md Sherazul Islam ,&nbsp;Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated the status, distribution, and ecological stoichiometric characteristics of organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total sulfur (TS) of the surface soil (0–5 and 5–10 cm) collected from the Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh. Fifty-nine soil samples were collected from the four administrative ranges such as Satkhira, Khulna, Sarankhola and Chandpai of Sundarbans. The study witnessed that salinity greatly influenced the availability, distribution and stoichiometry of soil OC, TN, TP, and TS. The OC and TN contents were found to increase with decreasing the salinity level probably due to the increasing soil microbial activity from higher to lower salinity levels. The TP content was recorded higher in moderate salinity levels where TS content was higher in moderate to low salinity levels. The OC, TN and TP contents of the top 0–5 cm of soil were recorded higher than 5–10 cm among the sampling ranges while TS content showed a reverse distribution. The stoichiometric ratios of C: N hardly varied along with the salt gradient, however, values of C: P and C: S appeared higher when the salinity level was higher. The OC and TN showed a significant positive relationship with OM and cationic contents. The stoichiometric ratios C: N, C: S, and C: P were either uncorrelated or moderately correlated; however, significantly positively correlated with OC and TN (<em>p &lt; 0.001</em>). In addition to salinity levels, tourism reveals a positive effect on the distribution of organic carbon (OC) and total nitrogen (TN), but did not show any influence on the distribution of total phosphorus (TP) and total sulfur (TS). This study illustrates the distribution pattern of topsoil nutrients and their stoichiometric ratios derived from spatially distributed samples, offering baseline data for the formulation of policy and management strategies for the Sundarbans mangrove forest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103967"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lithofacies, petrography and geochemistry of the Neoproterozoic Sharaban formation, Kirana Malani Basin: Implications for paleotectonics and paleogeography of the Indian shield","authors":"Syed Haroon Ali ,&nbsp;Bilal Ahmed ,&nbsp;Yasir Bashir ,&nbsp;Noureen Shoukat ,&nbsp;Shahid Ghazi ,&nbsp;S.M. Talha Qadri ,&nbsp;Ahmed Abd El Aal ,&nbsp;Fakhrul Islam","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Sharaban Formation, dating to the Neoproterozoic era, is found at the Kirana Hills within the Indian Shield Elements. Metasedimentary rock characterizes the Machh Supergroup's latest unit. New geological interpretations have emerged from the analysis of these metamorphosed and structurally deformed metavolcanic successions. This research characterizes the highly metamorphosed Kirana Group metasandstones and metaconglomerates. Metasandstone and metaconglomerate have unique main sedimentary and syn-sedimentary deformational structures, according to our findings. The present research provides a comprehensive analysis of the Neoproterozoic Sharaban Formation through the integration of field observations, petrographic analysis, geochemical techniques (XRD, SEM), isotopic investigations, seismic imaging, and regional datasets. The metaconglomerate reveals an unconformity within the Kirana Supergroup and provides insights into the origin of the clasts, along with the geological events that led to their deposition. The analysis of these facies via microphotographs indicates the existence of quartzitic textures and a predominant quartz arenite composition. The presence of recrystallized quartz grains and the orientation of mica minerals indicate that the metamorphic process occurred under conditions of low temperature and pressure. Calcitic to quartz overgrowth cements reduce the pore spaces within metasandstone. This formation features outcrops characterized by substantial cavernous pores, likely resulting from telodiagenesis. Intracratonic sag basins experienced modifications due to the transition from river environments to beach settings, encompassing shoreface and backshore zones. The complete Neoproterozoic sequence of the Kirana Supergroup offers significant geological insights into the initial history of the Kirana-Malani Basin, as well as its similarities with regions in Siberia, China, and Oman.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103963"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elevation-driven biases in seasonal weather forecasts: Insights from the Alpine region","authors":"Sameer Balaji Uttarwar ,&nbsp;Anna Napoli ,&nbsp;Diego Avesani ,&nbsp;Bruno Majone","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Generating reliable weather forecasts over mountainous regions is challenging. Indeed, global seasonal weather forecasting systems inherit biases that affect hydrological applications. In this context, we investigate the dependence of seasonal weather forecast biases on terrain characteristics in the Trentino-South Tyrol region, northeastern Italian Alps, with reference to precipitation and 2-m temperature variables. To this end, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation seasonal forecast system (SEAS5) dataset is used at a horizontal spatial resolution of <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>125</mn><mo>°</mo><mo>×</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>125</mn><mo>°</mo></mrow></math></span> with 25 ensemble members in the hindcast period from 1981 to 2016. The observational reference dataset used to evaluate the biases is a regional product routinely adopted in the interested area for hydrological applications, characterized by daily gridded precipitation and mean temperature at a spatial scale of 250 m <span><math><mo>×</mo></math></span> 250 m during the time window 1980–2018. The spatio-temporal variation of the biases at the monthly timescale is investigated here, and its dependence on elevation is interpreted using linear regression models. A simple correction model is also devised to investigate and analyze the linear correlation between forecast biases and elevation bias and elucidate the role of ensemble members in bias generation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103957"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A data-driven approach to arsenic classification in groundwater in geothermal Systems: Meta-Analysis and machine learning applications in Western Anatolia, Turkiye","authors":"Melis Somay-Altas ,&nbsp;Mirkan Yusuf Kalkan ,&nbsp;Diaa E. Fawzy","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Western Anatolia, Türkiye, is renowned for its diverse geothermal resources, encompassing high, medium, and low enthalpy systems. While these systems are valuable for energy production and economic development, they are also associated with significant environmental challenges, particularly high concentration arsenic and boron contamination. This study highlights critical hotspots, including Sandıklı (27 mg/L) and Banaz-Hamamboğazı (95.64 mg/L), with arsenic levels far exceeding the World Health Organization's (WHO) maximum permissible limit of 10 ppb. Such contamination poses significant risks to water quality, agriculture, and public health, especially in major agricultural provinces like Aydın and Manisa. To address these challenges, machine learning models were applied to classify arsenic concentrations. Ensemble methods, including AdaBoost (ABC) and Extra Trees (ETC) classifiers, consistently outperformed others, showing high accuracy of about 97 % in distinguishing geochemical signatures and predicting arsenic levels. In contrast, the k-Nearest Neighbors Classifier (KNNC) proved less effective, with frequent misclassifications. The combination of machine learning and meta-analysis provided a robust framework for identifying spatial and temporal patterns of contamination, offering valuable insights for environmental monitoring. This approach not only enhanced the understanding of arsenic distribution in geothermal systems but also provided actionable insights for mitigating contamination risks. The findings underscore the importance of combining computational techniques with environmental geochemistry to improve the management of geothermal wastewater. Future research should expand these methodologies to other regions and contaminants, leveraging machine learning to develop more effective environmental protection strategies. This study demonstrates the potential of data-driven approaches to address critical environmental issues and supports sustainable development in geothermal-rich areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103966"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation of the high frequency attenuation parameter kappa (κ) beneath the volcanic region of Kyushu using surface and borehole dataset","authors":"Sandeep ,&nbsp;Sonia Devi ,&nbsp;Pragya Singh ,&nbsp;U.P. Singh ,&nbsp;S.K. Pal ,&nbsp;P. Kumar ,&nbsp;Monika ,&nbsp;A. Kumar ,&nbsp;H. Mittal","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on a detailed analysis of the high-frequency attenuation parameter, kappa (<em>κ</em>), to better understand seismic wave propagation in the volcanic region of Kyushu. In this analysis, <em>κ</em> values are examined beneath the volcanic area of the Kyushu region using strong motion data from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The Surface and borehole data are utilized to evaluate the effects of site conditions and regional attenuation characteristics, respectively. The site attenuation parameter (<em>κ</em>_<em>0</em>) ranges from 0.022s to 0.068s, as estimated from 21 surface stations. The <em>κ</em>_<em>0</em> values correlate with average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (<span><math><mrow><msub><mi>V</mi><mrow><mi>S</mi><mn>30</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span><em>,</em> showing a decrease as <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>V</mi><mrow><mi>S</mi><mn>30</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> increases. Additionally, using borehole data, the region-specific S-wave quality factor (<em>Q</em>_<em>s</em>) and <em>κ</em>_<em>0</em> are estimated in this region, resulting in values of 846 ± 75 and 0.050 ± 0.002s, respectively. The relatively lower Q_s values and higher <em>κ</em>_<em>0</em> values observed in this study may be due to the extensive volcanic activities in the Kyushu region. The findings closely match previous studies, highlighting significant attenuation in the volcanic region. The average κ values for borehole data are 0.043s–0.053s for horizontal components (<em>κ</em>_<em>H</em>) and 0.038s–0.051s for vertical components (<em>κ</em>_<em>v</em>). Surface data shows <em>κ</em>_<em>H</em> values from 0.061s to 0.070s and <em>κ</em>_<em>V</em> from 0.039s to 0.046s. A relative comparison shows <em>κ</em>_<em>H</em> and <em>κ</em>_<em>v</em> are roughly equal in borehole conditions, while surface conditions reveal <em>κ</em>_<em>H</em> exceeds <em>κ</em>_<em>v</em> due to site effects on horizontal components. The estimated κ values are crucial for future site-specific seismic hazard analysis in Kyushu's volcanic regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103965"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation of precipitation and temperature trends using classical and innovative approaches with corresponding frequencies in Antalya Basin, Türkiye","authors":"Cansu Ercan ,&nbsp;Ahmad Abu Arra ,&nbsp;Eyüp Şişman","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The adverse impacts of climate change have increased significantly, which calls for studying trends in meteorological and hydrological variables to enhance our standing of its effects and analyze them in depth, which is of great importance. This research aims to apply the newly proposed Frequency-Innovative Trend Analysis (F-ITA) methodology along with the classical trend methods, including Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope (SS), to investigate the actual trends, magnitude, and direction of trends with their spatial and temporal changes over Antalya basin, Türkiye, using monthly precipitation and temperature data. Also, equal intervals for classification and corresponding frequencies with the enhanced visualization and evaluation of F-ITA methodology are introduced in this research as a novel approach. For precipitation, the F-ITA graphs indicated no trend or a decreasing trend over the Antalya Basin; for example, the A. Havalimanı station showed a decreasing trend in the \"high\" and \"very high\" subclassifications, with frequencies declining from 7.415 % to 9.88 %–4.01 % and 8.33 %, respectively. Also, the temperature trend in the Antalya Basin increased with corresponding frequencies, like the Alanya station, where the \"very high\" subclassification frequency increased significantly from 21.6 % to 33.95 %. The comparison between slopes from SS and ITA methodologies revealed differences and similarities, largely attributed to the methodological differences between the two approaches. The results of this research are highly important in the context of climate change adaptation strategies and can be utilized in sustainable water resource management and improve the agricultural sector in the study area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103958"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143921643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of efficiency of IFAD-CASP weather and climate services delivery in Sokoto and Katsina states, Nigeria","authors":"Amina Ibrahim Inkani ,&nbsp;Sani Abubakar Mashi ,&nbsp;Obaro Dominic Oghenejabor ,&nbsp;Safirat Sani","doi":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pce.2025.103961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates IFAD-CASP's role in promoting weather and climate services (WCS) adoption among farmers in Sokoto and Katsina states of Nigeria, where the project ran from 2013 to 2021. Using a mixed-method approach, the study surveyed 595 farmers and conducted key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) with farmers, agrometeorologists, and extension officers in both program states and a control state (Nasarawa). A student's t-test assessed differences in farmers' awareness and use of WCS, while qualitative data underwent rigorous thematic and content analysis through transcription, coding, thematic and content analysis, comparative and framework analysis, triangulation, and narrative analysis, ensuring a rigorous and comprehensive interpretation of participant perspectives. Findings show that IFAD-CASP significantly improved the uptake of only one of NiMet's five WCS products, with limited overall utilization due to weak linkages between WCS producers, enablers (e.g., extension officers, media practitioners), and end-users (farmers). The study calls for stronger institutional collaborations, engaging public and private media, ICT experts, extension services, farmer groups, and climate and social scientists to enhance WCS development, dissemination, and adoption in line with farmers' needs. Such collaborations aim to build a comprehensive enterprise that facilitates the development, collation, dissemination, and utilization of WCS products aligned closely with farmers' needs and expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54616,"journal":{"name":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth","volume":"139 ","pages":"Article 103961"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}