Environmental Development最新文献

{"title":"How to promote public participation in the recycling of floating debris in the reservoir area of hydropower projects? A stochastic quadripartite evolutionary game analysis","authors":"Pan Gao ,&nbsp;Jianhui Li ,&nbsp;Xu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The accumulation of floating debris in the reservoir areas of hydropower projects has severely impacted both the ecological environment and shipping safety. During the current floating debris collection, information asymmetry among different governance entities has rendered the floating debris recovery mechanism less effective. However, the public supervision mechanism can be a practical way to reduce this information gap. Therefore, this paper builds a four - party stochastic evolutionary game model involving local government, dam operator, clearing enterprises, and the public to explore an effective public - participation approach. The research findings are as follows: Political participation can stimulate the public's willingness to supervise floating debris recovery in the short term, and continuously strengthening environmental protection awareness can promote the transformation of the public to daily participation. Local government and dam operator hold the \"levers\" of incentives. By precisely and appropriately increasing the recognition and rewards for public supervision, the public can be encouraged to participate actively. Conversely, it will lead to the sluggish operation of the system. Public participation not only helps with supervision, but also enhances the resilience of the recycling system. However, it is necessary to reasonably control the costs of rewards and supervision to avoid undermining the stability of the system. Local government, by safeguarding the rights and interests of the public and shaping a favorable reputation ecosystem, can not only exert reverse pressure on recycling enterprises to make them act in a standardized way, but also stimulate the internal motivation of the public.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101215"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic impact of climate change on NTFP income in female-headed households: A Ricardian model approach","authors":"Lloyd JS. Baiyegunhi,&nbsp;Lerato E. Phali,&nbsp;Ayodeji O. Ogunleke","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the economic impact of climate change on households reliant on non-timber forest products (NTFPs) at the regional level is crucial for informing effective adaptation policies. This study examines the effects of climate change on net NTFP income using cross-sectional data from 240 rural female-headed households across six villages in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Applying the Ricardian model, the analysis reveals that net NTFP income is highly sensitive to climatic, socio-economic, and institutional factors, with temperature and rainfall fluctuations posing significant risks. Marginal impact analysis indicates that higher summer temperatures and rainfall increase annual net NTFP revenue by R157 (USD 9) and R6 (USD 0.33) per household, respectively, while rising winter temperatures and rainfall reduce revenue by R215 (USD 12) and R9 (USD 0.50), underscoring seasonal climate effects. Future climate simulations project relatively small overall impacts, with estimated income changes ranging from −10 % to 7 %. Under a moderate IPCC scenario (2 °C temperature increase, 5 % rainfall reduction), net NTFP income is expected to decline by R187 (USD 10), or 2.11 %. A more severe CanESM scenario (3.5 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) predicts a 5.54 % decline (R490 or USD 27), while the most extreme GFDL scenario (4 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) projects a 5.86 % decrease (R519 or USD 29). These findings highlight the need for improved climate monitoring, adaptive strategies, and sustainable NTFP management to support rural livelihoods in climate-sensitive regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101213"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the environmental sustainability of Portuguese agriculture","authors":"Elisa Biagetti ,&nbsp;Miguel Viegas ,&nbsp;Angelo Martella ,&nbsp;Silvio Franco ,&nbsp;Sara Moreno Pires","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural activity is simultaneously a supplier and consumer of biocapacity. In this sense, the methodology based on the Ecological Footprint and biocapacity is particularly useful for evaluating the environmental sustainability of agricultural practices.</div><div>This article aims to assess the environmental sustainability of Portuguese national and municipal agriculture systems (cropland and livestock) by a synthetic indicator (Ecological Balance) applied to the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal, based on the Ecological Footprint approach. After identifying regional clusters through a spatial data analysis, the article uses a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the relationship between the environmental sustainability of agricultural practices and the distribution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support in Portugal.</div><div>The Ecological Balance of Portuguese agriculture is globally negative. However, it is based on great regional heterogeneity. Profitability negatively affects the environmental performance of agriculture. As a worrying element, the results point to a negative relationship between the support of the CAP and the agricultural Ecological Balance of each municipality. Results support the need for recalibration of CAP financing mechanisms, with greater emphasis on ecological performance and sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101209"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The trends in heatwaves and associated synoptic conditions across the upper Limpopo Basin of Botswana and South Africa","authors":"Peliwe Jubase ,&nbsp;Mark New","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101211","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101211","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the interannual variability and trends in heat extremes across the Limpopo River Basin in Southern Africa, with a specific focus on heatwaves and their associated synoptic conditions. Extreme weather events pose a considerable threat to livelihood, health, agriculture, and economy due to their severe impacts. The purpose of this research is to strengthen the understanding of heatwaves' trends and their associated synoptic states in a highly climate-vulnerable region of Southern Africa. This should help inform scientists, decision-makers, and stakeholders about the risks of heatwaves and raise public health awareness. In the analysis of heat extremes, a statistical tool called RClimDex developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices performed a statistical analysis of climate indices at individual stations. RClimDex tool enabled for the definition, detection, and analysis of heat extremes in a standardized way, making it possible to compare results of various places and obtain coherent climate trends. Thereafter, the Self-organising Maps methodology was employed to investigate and visualize the synoptic systems associated with the observed regional heatwaves during austral summer. The trend analysis of heat extremes revealed a warming local climate, with increases in the duration of heatwaves and increases in the percentage number of extreme hot days and nights. It was detected that heatwaves were characterised mostly by a dominant and blocking South Indian high-pressure system co-existing with a mid-latitude cyclone. Single-occurring high-pressure systems such as the South Indian High or South Atlantic High were also found to be characteristic of heatwaves. Interestingly, the associated synoptic systems’ interannual trends were not corresponding to the observed increases in the duration of heatwaves, and this finding directs areas of further research to understand other contributing factors to the observed trends in heatwaves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101211"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of the global ITCZ to ENSO and how the ITCZ determined from maximum precipitation compares with the surface tropical wind convergence","authors":"Teke S. Ramotubei ,&nbsp;Willem A. Landman ,&nbsp;Mohau J. Mateyisi ,&nbsp;Shingirai S. Nangombe ,&nbsp;Asmerom F. Beraki","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101210","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101210","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shifts in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) may lead to amplification of climate extremes such as droughts and flooding. Its spatio-temporal variations respond to well-established oscillation processes like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research establishes the global and regional response of the ITCZ position to ENSO. It also explores the alignment between the ITCZ as determined from two methods: the surface tropical wind convergence, and maximum precipitation. The ERA5 reanalysis data, 1990–2020, are used in this study. Each longitude is scanned for latitude of maximum precipitation, during each El Niño/La Niña/Neutral year, within the 20°N/S latitude range to identify the ITCZ position. An overlay of surface tropical wind convergence and the ITCZ position is employed for comparison of the two methods. The study concludes that the position established by the maximum precipitation aligns with the surface tropical wind convergence over the global oceanic areas. On seasonal average, the La Niña ITCZ position is consistently southward of its El Niño position over Africa and Central Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, the extreme cases of El Niño/La Niña leads to further north/south shifting of the ITCZ position from its normal El Niño/La Niña positions. The continental and Atlantic Ocean ITCZ is more persistent and shows a minimal fluctuation, in comparison to Oceanic ITCZ, during the El Niño/La Niña. Cross-wavelet analysis was explored as an African case study and it shows common high-power features between the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and ITCZ signals over a four-year periodicity, mirroring the ENSO periodicity albeit with slowly varying time lag across the years. The cross-correlation of the two signals is strongest in Austral summer (DJF), corresponding to the peak of ENSO. This study contributes to the understanding of the overall description of the global and regional (with Australia and South America as new additions) ITCZ along with its response to the ENSO phases using the latest ERA reanalysis data. The global/regional spatio-temporal ITCZ shifts open an opportunity for improved interpretation of seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic events, especially under climate change conditions that reflect a possibility of an increase in the frequency of ENSO events in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101210"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143737884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainable embankment contribute to a sustainable economy: The impact of climate change on the economic disaster in coastal area","authors":"Md. Abu Issa Gazi ,&nbsp;Abdullah Al Masud ,&nbsp;Md. Kazi Hafizur Rahman ,&nbsp;Mohammad Bin Amin ,&nbsp;Md. Emon ,&nbsp;Abdul Rahman bin S Senathirajah ,&nbsp;Masuk Abdullah","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between climate change, economic disasters, disaster management, and sustainability in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Specifically, it aims to investigate how disaster management mediates the impact of economic disasters on sustainable embankment and economic sustainability, providing insights for enhancing resilience in these vulnerable regions.</div></div><div><h3>Method</h3><div>This study employs a quantitative research approach to analyze the relationships among climate change, economic disasters, disaster management, and sustainability in coastal areas of Bangladesh. Data collected through structured surveys administered to key stakeholders in the region, including local residents, government officials, and disaster management experts. To analyze the data, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The results show that climate change has a positive (β = 0.277) and statistically (p value &lt; 0.05) significant impact on economic disasters in coastal areas, and disaster management is also significantly (β = 0.172, p value &lt; 0.05) related to mitigating economic disasters. Furthermore, the result demonstrates that disaster management has a positive impact on sustainable embankment (β = 0.145) and sustainable economy (β = 0.150) development. Moreover, the authors also find that disaster management significantly (p value &lt; 0.05) mediates the relationship between economic disaster and sustainable embankment and economy development. These findings highlight the necessity for policymakers to give integrated disaster response plans and resilient infrastructure funding top priority in order to improve coastal regions' sustainability and economic stability.</div></div><div><h3>Originality value</h3><div>This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by highlighting the direct relationship between embankment resilience and sustainable economic growth and how both can assist lessen the ongoing impacts of climate change. Moreover, this relationship offers the groundwork for policy interventions specific to Bangladesh's coastal regions by highlighting the significance of infrastructure resilience in mitigating economic disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101208"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Framing social systems for ecosystem-based management: The Guadalquivir estuary-Gulf of Cadiz coupled SES as case study","authors":"Alfredo García-de-Vinuesa ,&nbsp;David Florido ,&nbsp;Cesar Vilas ,&nbsp;María Ángeles Torres ,&nbsp;Marina Delgado ,&nbsp;Isabel Muñoz ,&nbsp;Remedios Cabrera-Castro ,&nbsp;Fernando Ramos ,&nbsp;Marcos Llope","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conserving and using the oceans, seas, and marine resources sustainably is a high-level management goal encouraged by the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and endorsed by most national policies. Estuaries are complex Social-Ecological Systems (SES) impacted by pressures from multi-sectoral activities. In these contexts, a holistic management approach, such as Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM), is essential to prevent the loss of ecosystem services. The Guadalquivir estuary-Gulf of Cadiz (Ge-GoC) is an intricate SES that faces pressures from numerous sectoral activities, including fishing, agriculture, shipping, aquaculture, and mining. The cumulative effects of these pressures (such as juvenile exploitation, eutrophication, pollution, riverbank erosion, and the introduction of alien species) could potentially drive the SES toward an ecological regime shift and deplete current ecosystem services such as its nursery role. Although there is a good understanding of the Ge-GoC ecosystem dynamics, no efforts have been made to consider and incorporate the human dimension, which is essential for successful EBM implementation. Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a tool from social sciences that characterizes the relationships among stakeholders within a given social setting. In an effort to frame the Ge-GoC social system, the first SNA was conducted, involving interviews with 55 stakeholders representing 11 sectors. The SNA identified key stakeholders from the government, fishing, shipping, surveillance, local city councils energy and NGO sectors due to their high centrality. While the shipping and energy sectors displayed significant influence in estuary management, they demonstrated limited interest and, in some cases, disagreement with the overall SES objectives, in contrast to the NGO and surveillance sectors. The primary management goals identified by stakeholders include reducing water pollution, controlling invasive species, combating drug trafficking, and addressing illegal fishing. However, the majority of stakeholders expressed reluctance regarding the goal of shipping optimization. The information extracted through SNA provides a valuable knowledge base for creating participatory processes that can guide complex SES toward EBM.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101206"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The breadth and potential of systems analysis across Africa","authors":"Anne Goujon,&nbsp;Felicity Addo,&nbsp;Monika Bauer,&nbsp;Karen Lips,&nbsp;Wolfgang Lutz,&nbsp;Hans Joachim Schellnhuber","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101207","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101207"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From abundance to aridity: The institutional drivers behind Lake Urmia's decline","authors":"Mahdi Taraghi ,&nbsp;Landon Yoder ,&nbsp;Eduardo S. Brondizio ,&nbsp;Ali K. Ghorbanpour ,&nbsp;Hojjat Mianabadi ,&nbsp;Behzad Hessari","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lake Urmia, once the largest saltwater lake in West Asia, has experienced severe desiccation over recent decades, raising significant environmental and socio-economic concerns. This study investigates the institutional factors driving the lake's decline by applying the Institutional Analysis and Development framework to Iran's Five-Year Development Programs (FYDPs) from 1989 to 2021. Our qualitative analysis indicates that extensive dam construction, driven by a hydraulic mission paradigm, and agricultural policies prioritizing national food self-sufficiency have been the primary contributors to Lake Urmia's decline. A lack of coherence within development programs remains a critical issue. Although recent FYDPs incorporated water conservation objectives, they consistently prioritized agricultural self-sufficiency, contributing to the continued expansion of agriculture in the Lake Urmia Basin. By the end of the sixth FYDP, the lake's water level had fallen 3.42 m below its ecological threshold. The study highlights the lock-in effects of agricultural policies established by FYDPs, which constrain policy shifts toward sustainable approaches. Given the failure of top-down policies to restore Lake Urmia, this study advocates for re-evaluating national development plans and engaging local stakeholders in the development of environmental and water policies to foster long-term ecological sustainability and socio-economic resilience in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101205"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143609783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do international donors influence regional environmental governance? The case of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty","authors":"Fredy D. Polo-Villanueva ,&nbsp;Pradip Kumar Sarker ,&nbsp;Lukas Giessen ,&nbsp;Sarah Lilian Burns","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous research has shown that international donors can significantly influence national and international environmental governance. However, their influence at the regional level has not yet been sufficiently explored. This study aims to examine the influence of international donors on regional environmental governance agreements, taking the Amazon Cooperation Treaty (ACT) as a case study. Using a documentary analysis covering four decades, reviews of academic literature and media articles, and interviews with key informants, this study traces the influence of donors through three distinct stages: protectionism, formalisation and policy customisation. In the first stage, the limited influence of international donors did not translate into significant changes in the initially low degree of formalisation of the agreement. In the second stage, the moderate to high influence of international donors led member states to enhance the degree of formalisation of the ACT and to adopt for the first time a weak forest-related policy in the search to increase its capacities to attract and manage external funds. In the third stage, the still high influence of international donors increased the strength of the newly adopted forest-focused policy of the ACT to moderate. We conclude that international donors can influence regional environmental governance arrangements by increasing their degree of formalisation and the strength of their (forest) policies; as well as by customising their policies to they their interests rather than those of the arrangements’ member states.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101204"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}