Economic impact of climate change on NTFP income in female-headed households: A Ricardian model approach

IF 4.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI:10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213

Lloyd JS. Baiyegunhi, Lerato E. Phali, Ayodeji O. Ogunleke

{"title":"Economic impact of climate change on NTFP income in female-headed households: A Ricardian model approach","authors":"Lloyd JS. Baiyegunhi, Lerato E. Phali, Ayodeji O. Ogunleke","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101213","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the economic impact of climate change on households reliant on non-timber forest products (NTFPs) at the regional level is crucial for informing effective adaptation policies. This study examines the effects of climate change on net NTFP income using cross-sectional data from 240 rural female-headed households across six villages in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Applying the Ricardian model, the analysis reveals that net NTFP income is highly sensitive to climatic, socio-economic, and institutional factors, with temperature and rainfall fluctuations posing significant risks. Marginal impact analysis indicates that higher summer temperatures and rainfall increase annual net NTFP revenue by R157 (USD 9) and R6 (USD 0.33) per household, respectively, while rising winter temperatures and rainfall reduce revenue by R215 (USD 12) and R9 (USD 0.50), underscoring seasonal climate effects. Future climate simulations project relatively small overall impacts, with estimated income changes ranging from −10 % to 7 %. Under a moderate IPCC scenario (2 °C temperature increase, 5 % rainfall reduction), net NTFP income is expected to decline by R187 (USD 10), or 2.11 %. A more severe CanESM scenario (3.5 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) predicts a 5.54 % decline (R490 or USD 27), while the most extreme GFDL scenario (4 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) projects a 5.86 % decrease (R519 or USD 29). These findings highlight the need for improved climate monitoring, adaptive strategies, and sustainable NTFP management to support rural livelihoods in climate-sensitive regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 101213"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Development","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221146452500079X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Assessing the economic impact of climate change on households reliant on non-timber forest products (NTFPs) at the regional level is crucial for informing effective adaptation policies. This study examines the effects of climate change on net NTFP income using cross-sectional data from 240 rural female-headed households across six villages in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Applying the Ricardian model, the analysis reveals that net NTFP income is highly sensitive to climatic, socio-economic, and institutional factors, with temperature and rainfall fluctuations posing significant risks. Marginal impact analysis indicates that higher summer temperatures and rainfall increase annual net NTFP revenue by R157 (USD 9) and R6 (USD 0.33) per household, respectively, while rising winter temperatures and rainfall reduce revenue by R215 (USD 12) and R9 (USD 0.50), underscoring seasonal climate effects. Future climate simulations project relatively small overall impacts, with estimated income changes ranging from −10 % to 7 %. Under a moderate IPCC scenario (2 °C temperature increase, 5 % rainfall reduction), net NTFP income is expected to decline by R187 (USD 10), or 2.11 %. A more severe CanESM scenario (3.5 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) predicts a 5.54 % decline (R490 or USD 27), while the most extreme GFDL scenario (4 °C increase, 20 % rainfall reduction) projects a 5.86 % decrease (R519 or USD 29). These findings highlight the need for improved climate monitoring, adaptive strategies, and sustainable NTFP management to support rural livelihoods in climate-sensitive regions.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

气候变化对女性户主家庭NTFP收入的经济影响：一个李嘉图模型方法

在地区层面评估气候变化对依赖非木材森林产品 (NTFP) 的家庭的经济影响，对于制定有效的适应政策至关重要。本研究利用南非林波波省六个村庄 240 个农村女户主家庭的横截面数据，研究了气候变化对非木材林产品净收入的影响。应用李嘉图模型进行的分析表明，非物质文化遗产净收入对气候、社会经济和制度因素高度敏感，气温和降雨量的波动会带来重大风险。边际影响分析表明，夏季气温和降雨量的升高会使每户每年的非物质文化遗产净收入分别增加 157 兰特（9 美元）和 6 兰特（0.33 美元），而冬季气温和降雨量的升高则会使收入分别减少 215 兰特（12 美元）和 9 兰特（0.50 美元），从而突出了季节性气候效应。未来气候模拟预测的总体影响相对较小，估计收入变化在-10%到7%之间。在中度 IPCC 情景下（气温上升 2 °C，降雨量减少 5%），非物质文化遗产净收入预计将减少 187 兰特（10 美元），或 2.11%。更严重的 CanESM 情景（气温升高 3.5 °C，降雨量减少 20 %）预计将减少 5.54 %（490 兰特或 27 美元），而最极端的 GFDL 情景（气温升高 4 °C，降雨量减少 20 %）预计将减少 5.86 %（519 兰特或 29 美元）。这些发现突出表明，需要改进气候监测、适应战略和可持续的非物质文化遗产管理，以支持气候敏感地区的农村生计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Environmental Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

8.40

自引率

1.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： Environmental Development provides a future oriented, pro-active, authoritative source of information and learning for researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, and managers, and bridges the gap between fundamental research and the application in management and policy practices. It stimulates the exchange and coupling of traditional scientific knowledge on the environment, with the experiential knowledge among decision makers and other stakeholders and also connects natural sciences and social and behavioral sciences. Environmental Development includes and promotes scientific work from the non-western world, and also strengthens the collaboration between the developed and developing world. Further it links environmental research to broader issues of economic and social-cultural developments, and is intended to shorten the delays between research and publication, while ensuring thorough peer review. Environmental Development also creates a forum for transnational communication, discussion and global action. Environmental Development is open to a broad range of disciplines and authors. The journal welcomes, in particular, contributions from a younger generation of researchers, and papers expanding the frontiers of environmental sciences, pointing at new directions and innovative answers. All submissions to Environmental Development are reviewed using the general criteria of quality, originality, precision, importance of topic and insights, clarity of exposition, which are in keeping with the journal''s aims and scope.