Geography and Sustainability最新文献

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Ecosystem services potential and soil conservation policies with emphasis on degraded pastures in Brazil 生态系统服务潜力和土壤保护政策,重点是巴西的退化牧场
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.010
Adriana Monteiro da Costa , Maise Soares de Moura , Isadora Fonseca Navarro , Victor Cordeiro da Silva , Teresa Cristina Tarlé Pissarra , Carlos Alberto Valera , Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes , Fernando Antonio Leal Pacheco
{"title":"Ecosystem services potential and soil conservation policies with emphasis on degraded pastures in Brazil","authors":"Adriana Monteiro da Costa ,&nbsp;Maise Soares de Moura ,&nbsp;Isadora Fonseca Navarro ,&nbsp;Victor Cordeiro da Silva ,&nbsp;Teresa Cristina Tarlé Pissarra ,&nbsp;Carlos Alberto Valera ,&nbsp;Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes ,&nbsp;Fernando Antonio Leal Pacheco","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different global agendas have discussed the role of soils in mitigating and reducing global problems related to climate change, food security, biodiversity and erosion, among others. With this in mind, the aim was to draw up an overview of the main soil agendas in Europe and Brazil, analysing their impact on the establishment of legal frameworks for soil use and conservation. In Brazil, pastures are seen as an important alternative for converting degraded areas into ecosystem services. To this end, a literature review was carried out using databases on the Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct and Scielo platforms, as well as consulting documents from the European Union Missions in Horizon Europe and Brazilian legislation on the subject. In a pilot river basin, the Potential for Conservation Use (PCU) method was applied, which is used in Brazil to assess the impacts of different uses on the natural capital of soils, serving as a metric to guide public soil conservation policies. It was concluded that, on the European scene, discussions on soils have taken place in an integrated and organised way, with actions to mobilise different players in society. In Brazil, even though there are important legal frameworks, actions are still restricted and disjointed, pointing to the need for progress in soil governance. In both scenarios, there is a need for scientifically validated metrics at regional scales that can contribute to a harmonised database capable of subsidising the development of efficient public policies to advance soil conservation at a global level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 660-672"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Space cannot substitute for time in the study of the ecosystem services-human wellbeing relationship
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.002
Lumeng Liu , Jianguo Wu
{"title":"Space cannot substitute for time in the study of the ecosystem services-human wellbeing relationship","authors":"Lumeng Liu ,&nbsp;Jianguo Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relationship between ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being (HWB) is fundamental to the science and practice of sustainability. However, studies have shown conflicting results, which has been attributed to the influences of indicators, contexts, and scales. Yet, another potential factor, which has been overlooked, may be the mixed use of spatial and temporal approaches. Using twelve ES and seven well-being indicators and multiple statistical methods, we quantified and compared the spatial and temporal ES–HWB relationships for Inner Mongolia, China. The spatial and temporal relationships differed in both correlation direction and strength. Most relationships of economic and employment-related indicators with food provisioning and supporting services were temporally positive but spatially nonsignificant or negative. Some relationships of economic and employment-related indicators with water retention, sandstorm prevention, and wind erosion were temporally negative but spatially complex. However, the spatial and temporal ES–HWB relationships could also be similar in some cases. We conclude that although both the spatial and temporal approaches have merits, space generally cannot substitute for time in the study of ES–HWB relationship. Our study helps reconcile the seemingly conflicting findings in the literature, and suggests that future studies should explicitly distinguish between the spatial and temporal ES–HWB relationships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100221"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing the extent and use of impervious land in rural landscapes 分析农村景观中不透水土地的范围和使用情况
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.004
Andreas Moser , Jasper van Vliet , Ulrike Wissen Hayek , Adrienne Grêt-Regamey
{"title":"Analyzing the extent and use of impervious land in rural landscapes","authors":"Andreas Moser ,&nbsp;Jasper van Vliet ,&nbsp;Ulrike Wissen Hayek ,&nbsp;Adrienne Grêt-Regamey","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The amount of impervious surface is increasing rapidly worldwide. Although urban expansion has been studied extensively, the alteration of impervious land cover in rural regions remains under-examined. In particular, insights into the utilization of these sealed surfaces are crucially needed to unravel the underlying dynamics of land use changes beyond urban areas. This study focuses on rural regions from a Swiss case study and presents an analysis of the <em>use</em> of sealed surfaces in such regions, rather than solely quantifying the <em>extent</em> of sealed surfaces. Utilizing a synergistic approach that merges detailed cadastral plans with very-high-resolution remote sensing imagery and sophisticated deep learning algorithms, we characterized the uses of sealed surfaces, including buildings and their surroundings. Our findings reveal that 2.1 % of the study area’s rural regions comprises sealed surfaces - an area comparable to the sealed surfaces in the urban regions. Within these rural regions, transport infrastructure represents 68 % of this impervious surface. Buildings account for 12 %, and their surroundings, constituting 13 %, are utilized primarily for agricultural purposes, including farming and livestock activities. The deep learning approach achieved a classification accuracy of 72 % for a shallow model and 79 % for a deeper model, indicating that mapping building types is possible with reasonable accuracy. The outcomes of this study underscore the critical need to factor in the presence and utilization of impervious land cover within rural regions for the sustainable management of land resources.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 625-636"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000737/pdfft?md5=3e247189215255549d887437cd08c9c6&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000737-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142242732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial correlations and risk transmission of virtual water flow at city scale: A case study of the Yellow River Basin
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.011
Jingjing Yang , Zhong Ma , Weijing Ma , Xingxing Niu , Ting Mao
{"title":"Spatial correlations and risk transmission of virtual water flow at city scale: A case study of the Yellow River Basin","authors":"Jingjing Yang ,&nbsp;Zhong Ma ,&nbsp;Weijing Ma ,&nbsp;Xingxing Niu ,&nbsp;Ting Mao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>By introducing virtual water (VW) flow correlation coefficients and risk indicators, this study examines the VW transmission relationship between urban agglomerations and cities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and its impact on regional water resources pressure. The results show that: except for the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration (SPUA) and Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA), the other urban agglomerations primarily act as VW exporting regions, while virtual water-importing cities are concentrated in the eastern regions. Notably, the Ningxia Urban Agglomeration (NUA) demonstrates significantly higher VW impact and sensitivity coefficients values than the remaining six urban agglomerations. First-tier cities generally display lower virtual water impact and sensitivity coefficients, whereas emerging cities exhibit the opposite trend. Additionally, we observe uneven risk variations between VW importing and exporting regions. Taking NUA as an example, the risk increase resulting from VW exports significantly exceeds the risk reduction associated with VW imports in the corresponding regions. It’s important to highlight that first-tier cities consistently decrease water resource risk through VW imports in the study years. However, among second and third-tier cities, only 38.9 % experience reduced water resource risk through VW imports. Therefore, we recommend a focused examination of VW imports and exports in western region urban agglomerations, cities, and second and third-tier cities within the watershed. Leveraging virtual water’s asymmetric and high-value transfer can alleviate water resource pressure and scarcity risks in high-pressure regions by shifting them to lower-pressure regions, thus mitigating water resource stress across regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100223"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143215395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of increasing compound hot-dry events on vegetation under the warming-wetting trend in Northwest China
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.003
Zejin Liu , Limin Jiao , Xihong Lian
{"title":"Impacts of increasing compound hot-dry events on vegetation under the warming-wetting trend in Northwest China","authors":"Zejin Liu ,&nbsp;Limin Jiao ,&nbsp;Xihong Lian","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a warming world, climate extremes tend to be more frequent and intense. The exceptional response of ecosystems triggered by extreme climate events under a warmer and wetter climate in northwest China (NWC) has aroused growing concern. However, understanding the responses of vegetation to climate extremes from the compound events perspective remains challenging. In this study, we identify the climate dynamics in NWC during 1971–2020 based on daily meteorological observations, focusing on the changes in compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) during the warmer and wetter period. We further explore the effects of CHDEs on vegetation by examining vegetation anomalies and recovery time using daily gross primary productivity (GPP) data. The results show a clear warmer and wetter period in NWC during 2000–2020. No signs of a hiatus in CHDEs increase are observed during this period, and even the duration of CHDEs in western NWC keeps showing an increasing tendency. Vegetation in eastern NWC, with a lower probability of GPP anomalies, exhibits stronger resistance of ecosystems to CHDEs than in western NWC. In NWC, vegetation typically returns to its normal state in 5.50 days on average, but exhibits greater resilience in the western region, where it takes less recovery time (4.82 days). Vegetation in the central region shows the lowest probability of GPP anomalies and relatively longer recovery time, likely due to its higher altitudes. Our research underscores the imperative to address the considerable impacts of CHDEs on vegetation growth even as the regional climate becomes increasingly warmer and wetter.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100222"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying and categorizing development paths of poverty-elimination counties in China: Based on the perspective of population-land-industry
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.009
Qianxi Zhang , Zhi Cao , Sixin Su , Xuanchang Zhang
{"title":"Quantifying and categorizing development paths of poverty-elimination counties in China: Based on the perspective of population-land-industry","authors":"Qianxi Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhi Cao ,&nbsp;Sixin Su ,&nbsp;Xuanchang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has achieved the poverty reduction goal of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 10 years ahead of schedule, contributing significantly to global poverty reduction. Despite extended efforts in poverty elimination, there is a lack of quantitative studies categorizing and comparing poverty-elimination counties (PECs) based on their processes. This study proposes an innovative framework for analyzing PECs’ development paths from the perspective of population-land-industry (PLI). We quantify the PLI matching degree of PECs in China during the critical phase of the battle against poverty through a multivariate matching model, classify PECs via <em>K-means</em> clustering according to the consistency in PLI matching degree evolution, and summarize the typical development patterns of PECs. Results indicate that the PLI matching degree of PECs in China increased substantially from 2015 to 2020, particularly in eastern areas, while the western region, including the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and southwestern Xinjiang, shows untapped potential for improvement. Five types of PECs are identified, with the majority (30.1 %) showing sustained moderate PLI matching and a minority (9.6 %) experiencing long-term PLI mismatch. Industry is the shortfall of various PECs, and effective strategies to facilitate all types of PECs include the development of emerging businesses and the expansion of secondary and tertiary industries. Additionally, enriching rural labor force and increasing farmland use efficiency are essential for optimal PLI matching and positive interaction, ultimately ensuring poverty elimination and sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 2","pages":"Article 100218"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143176700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trees support functional soils in a dryland agricultural area 树木为旱地农业区的功能土壤提供支持
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.001
Jingyi Ding , David J. Eldridge
{"title":"Trees support functional soils in a dryland agricultural area","authors":"Jingyi Ding ,&nbsp;David J. Eldridge","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Trees provide multiple ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, hydrological regulation and habitat for arboreal animals. However, they are often removed to support agricultural enterprises. Despite the importance of tree remnants, we know relatively little about how soils differ across sites of varying condition. Here, we describe a study where we examined the relative effects of trees, compared with unvegetated interspaces, on soil functions in remnant patches at sites in good and poor condition in two eucalypt communities in an irrigation area in eastern Australia. We found that, in general, carbon and nutrient cycling were relatively greater beneath trees, and in surface soils, but there were no clear trends in relation to site condition. The values of most soil attributes (e.g., soluble and exchangeable cations, nitrogen, phosphorus) were greater beneath trees, indicating strong fertile island effects in both communities. Overall, our study confirms the importance of trees in remnant patches in agricultural landscapes, particularly those in sites of poor condition. It also suggests that soil processes may still be relatively intact, even in sites in poor condition. Our study reinforces the need to protect trees in remnant woodland reserves to maintain critical ecosystem functions related to nutrient retention. These remnants are important for achieving sustainable management of agricultural systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 588-596"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000725/pdfft?md5=94a58e069b506fde8d8f4b64a544c9d2&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000725-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142147661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type 气候变化对中国水稻生长和产量的影响:基于气候年份类型的分析
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.006
Lunche Wang , Danhua Zhong , Xinxin Chen , Zigeng Niu , Qian Cao
{"title":"Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type","authors":"Lunche Wang ,&nbsp;Danhua Zhong ,&nbsp;Xinxin Chen ,&nbsp;Zigeng Niu ,&nbsp;Qian Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (&lt; 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 548-560"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622/pdfft?md5=c05f6958148d57c6c194034a0b39c0cf&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000622-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141990923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A robust method for evaluating the potentials of 15-minute cities: Implications for sustainable urban futures 评估 15 分钟城市潜力的可靠方法:对可持续城市未来的影响
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.004
Jianying Wang , Mei-Po Kwan , Gezhi Xiu , Fangxu Deng
{"title":"A robust method for evaluating the potentials of 15-minute cities: Implications for sustainable urban futures","authors":"Jianying Wang ,&nbsp;Mei-Po Kwan ,&nbsp;Gezhi Xiu ,&nbsp;Fangxu Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The ‘15-minute city’ (15minC) concept, which aspires to bring essential services within reach via a 15-minute walk for all residents, represents a pivotal paradigm shift in sustainable urban development. However, the achievability of this concept for different cities varies considerably across diverse population distributions, urban contexts, and development priorities. In this study, we propose a robust method for evaluating a city’s 15minC potential — a city’s capability to achieve widespread 15-minute accessibility while maintaining an optimal balance between resource efficiency and resident accessibility. We employ the Location Set Covering Problem optimization model to analyze the resources required to achieve full coverage of 15-minute accessibility and the knee point detection algorithm to assess a city’s 15minC potential. Across 23 major Chinese cities, our method exhibits a sharp sensitivity to delineate distinct 15minC potentials. It reveals that cities’ current 15minC development level doesn’t align with their inherent potential uniformly. Key determinants include how well current facility locations match population centers and the population density in remote areas. Further, reducing facility constructions by two-thirds has only a marginal impact on accessibility, emphasizing the need for tailored, data-driven planning in effective and sustainable urban development based on the distinct potentials of cities. Our approach prioritizes resource efficiency, minimizing the inefficient use of facilities that serve only a small portion of residents while maximizing the benefits of the 15minC and therefore has significant implications for a sustainable urban future.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 597-606"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000646/pdfft?md5=31e5b36a532fe9ecfe0fa6584437a15a&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000646-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142228958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model 利用系统动力学建模和 STIRPAT 模型分析印度尼西亚碳税对碳排放影响的情景分析
IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学
Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.003
Andewi Rokhmawati , Vita Sarasi , Lailan Tawila Berampu
{"title":"Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model","authors":"Andewi Rokhmawati ,&nbsp;Vita Sarasi ,&nbsp;Lailan Tawila Berampu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aims to develop a system dynamic (SD) forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO<sub>2</sub>e carbon tax on carbon emissions, estimate future carbon emissions under ten scenarios, without and with the carbon tax, and estimate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) to predict Indonesia’s carbon emission peak. Carbon emission drivers in this study are decomposed into several factors, namely energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, GDP per capita, population, and fixed-asset investment. This study included nuclear power utilization starting in 2038. The research gaps addressed by this study compared to previous research are (1) use of the ex-ante approach, (2) inclusion of nuclear power plants, (3) testing the EKC hypothesis, and (4) contribution to government policy. The simulation results show that under the carbon tax, carbon emissions can be reduced by improving renewable energy structures, adjusting industrial structures to green businesses, and emphasizing fixed asset investment more environmentally friendly. Moreover, the result approved the EKC hypothesis. It shows an inverse U-shaped curve between GDP per capita and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Indonesia. Indonesia’s fastest carbon emission peak is under scenario seven and is expected in 2040. Although an IDR 30 per kg CO<sub>2</sub>e carbon tax and nuclear power will take decades to reduce carbon emissions, the carbon tax can still be a reference and has advantages to implement. This result can be a good beginning step for Indonesia, which has yet to gain experience with a carbon tax that can be implemented immediately and is helpful to decision-makers in putting into practice sensible measures to attain Indonesia’s carbon emission peaking. This research provides actionable insights internationally on carbon tax policies, nuclear energy adoption, EKC dynamics, global policy implications, and fostering international cooperation for carbon emission reductions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"5 4","pages":"Pages 577-587"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000610/pdfft?md5=cbf60bfad0e67f681faf106e0bf8538c&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000610-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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