评估 15 分钟城市潜力的可靠方法:对可持续城市未来的影响

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
Jianying Wang , Mei-Po Kwan , Gezhi Xiu , Fangxu Deng
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引用次数: 0

摘要

15 分钟城市"(15minC)概念希望所有居民步行 15 分钟就能获得基本服务,它代表了可持续城市发展的关键范式转变。然而,不同城市的人口分布、城市环境和发展重点各不相同,这一概念的可实现性也大相径庭。在本研究中,我们提出了一种稳健的方法来评估城市的 15minC 潜力,即一个城市实现广泛的 15 分钟可达性的能力,同时在资源效率和居民可达性之间保持最佳平衡。我们采用位置集覆盖问题优化模型来分析实现 15 分钟可达性全覆盖所需的资源,并采用膝点检测算法来评估城市的 15 分钟可达性潜力。在中国 23 个主要城市中,我们的方法在划分不同的 15 分钟可达性潜力方面表现出了极高的灵敏度。它揭示了城市当前的 15 分钟交通发展水平与其内在潜力并不一致。关键的决定因素包括当前设施位置与人口中心的匹配程度以及偏远地区的人口密度。此外,减少三分之二的设施建设对可达性的影响微乎其微,这强调了在有效和可持续的城市发展中,需要根据城市的不同潜力进行量身定制、数据驱动的规划。我们的方法将资源效率放在首位,最大限度地减少仅为一小部分居民服务的设施的低效使用,同时最大限度地发挥 15minC 的效益,因此对可持续城市未来具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

A robust method for evaluating the potentials of 15-minute cities: Implications for sustainable urban futures

A robust method for evaluating the potentials of 15-minute cities: Implications for sustainable urban futures

The ‘15-minute city’ (15minC) concept, which aspires to bring essential services within reach via a 15-minute walk for all residents, represents a pivotal paradigm shift in sustainable urban development. However, the achievability of this concept for different cities varies considerably across diverse population distributions, urban contexts, and development priorities. In this study, we propose a robust method for evaluating a city’s 15minC potential — a city’s capability to achieve widespread 15-minute accessibility while maintaining an optimal balance between resource efficiency and resident accessibility. We employ the Location Set Covering Problem optimization model to analyze the resources required to achieve full coverage of 15-minute accessibility and the knee point detection algorithm to assess a city’s 15minC potential. Across 23 major Chinese cities, our method exhibits a sharp sensitivity to delineate distinct 15minC potentials. It reveals that cities’ current 15minC development level doesn’t align with their inherent potential uniformly. Key determinants include how well current facility locations match population centers and the population density in remote areas. Further, reducing facility constructions by two-thirds has only a marginal impact on accessibility, emphasizing the need for tailored, data-driven planning in effective and sustainable urban development based on the distinct potentials of cities. Our approach prioritizes resource efficiency, minimizing the inefficient use of facilities that serve only a small portion of residents while maximizing the benefits of the 15minC and therefore has significant implications for a sustainable urban future.

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来源期刊
Geography and Sustainability
Geography and Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
16.70
自引率
3.10%
发文量
32
审稿时长
41 days
期刊介绍: Geography and Sustainability serves as a central hub for interdisciplinary research and education aimed at promoting sustainable development from an integrated geography perspective. By bridging natural and human sciences, the journal fosters broader analysis and innovative thinking on global and regional sustainability issues. Geography and Sustainability welcomes original, high-quality research articles, review articles, short communications, technical comments, perspective articles and editorials on the following themes: Geographical Processes: Interactions with and between water, soil, atmosphere and the biosphere and their spatio-temporal variations; Human-Environmental Systems: Interactions between humans and the environment, resilience of socio-ecological systems and vulnerability; Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing: Ecosystem structure, processes, services and their linkages with human wellbeing; Sustainable Development: Theory, practice and critical challenges in sustainable development.
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