气候变化对中国水稻生长和产量的影响:基于气候年份类型的分析

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化威胁着中国的水稻生产,因此评估气候变化和气候年型(CYT)对各地区水稻生产的影响对保障粮食安全至关重要。本研究评估了九种气候年型下不同温度和降水组合的气候变化对单季稻和双季稻(早稻和晚稻)两种水稻种植制度的影响。结果表明(1) 预计东北地区的升温幅度最大,为 2.03-2.48 °C,所有地区的未来气候条件将以温暖-湿润、温暖-正常和温暖-干旱 CYTs 为主。(2)气候变化将使单季稻播种后的开花期和成熟期显著缩短 6-12 天和 9-24 天,晚稻变化不大(< 1 天)。与单季稻和早稻相比,晚稻产量受气候变化的影响更大,下降了 8.8 %-16.13 %。(3)不同的 CYT 对水稻产量的影响不同。预计温暖-湿润、温暖-正常和温暖-干旱 CYTs 的产量将减少约 4.765 % 至 18.645 %。相反,东北地区的产量预计将增加。(4) 水稻产量与气象因素的关系因地区、品种和 CYT 而异。在 9 个 CYT 中,高杀青度日、日平均气温、日平均太阳辐射和暖流持续时间指数是影响水稻产量变化的主要因素,解释了近 80% 的产量变化。我们的研究结果将有助于制定不同地区和水稻种植系统的适应策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type

Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type

Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.

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来源期刊
Geography and Sustainability
Geography and Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
16.70
自引率
3.10%
发文量
32
审稿时长
41 days
期刊介绍: Geography and Sustainability serves as a central hub for interdisciplinary research and education aimed at promoting sustainable development from an integrated geography perspective. By bridging natural and human sciences, the journal fosters broader analysis and innovative thinking on global and regional sustainability issues. Geography and Sustainability welcomes original, high-quality research articles, review articles, short communications, technical comments, perspective articles and editorials on the following themes: Geographical Processes: Interactions with and between water, soil, atmosphere and the biosphere and their spatio-temporal variations; Human-Environmental Systems: Interactions between humans and the environment, resilience of socio-ecological systems and vulnerability; Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing: Ecosystem structure, processes, services and their linkages with human wellbeing; Sustainable Development: Theory, practice and critical challenges in sustainable development.
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