{"title":"气候变化对中国水稻生长和产量的影响:基于气候年份类型的分析","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.006","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622/pdfft?md5=c05f6958148d57c6c194034a0b39c0cf&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000622-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.006\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":52374,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geography and Sustainability\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622/pdfft?md5=c05f6958148d57c6c194034a0b39c0cf&pid=1-s2.0-S2666683924000622-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geography and Sustainability\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geography and Sustainability","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.
期刊介绍:
Geography and Sustainability serves as a central hub for interdisciplinary research and education aimed at promoting sustainable development from an integrated geography perspective. By bridging natural and human sciences, the journal fosters broader analysis and innovative thinking on global and regional sustainability issues.
Geography and Sustainability welcomes original, high-quality research articles, review articles, short communications, technical comments, perspective articles and editorials on the following themes:
Geographical Processes: Interactions with and between water, soil, atmosphere and the biosphere and their spatio-temporal variations;
Human-Environmental Systems: Interactions between humans and the environment, resilience of socio-ecological systems and vulnerability;
Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing: Ecosystem structure, processes, services and their linkages with human wellbeing;
Sustainable Development: Theory, practice and critical challenges in sustainable development.