利用系统动力学建模和 STIRPAT 模型分析印度尼西亚碳税对碳排放影响的情景分析

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在开发一个基于 STIRPAT 模型的系统动态(SD)预测模型,以预测每公斤二氧化碳当量征收 30 印尼盾碳税对碳排放的影响,估算在不征收碳税和征收碳税的十种情景下的未来碳排放量,并估算环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)以预测印度尼西亚的碳排放峰值。本研究中的碳排放驱动因素分解为几个因素,即能源结构、能源强度、产业结构、人均 GDP、人口和固定资产投资。本研究包括从 2038 年开始的核电利用。与之前的研究相比,本研究的不足之处在于:(1)使用事前方法;(2)纳入核电站;(3)检验 EKC 假设;(4)对政府政策的贡献。模拟结果表明,在征收碳税的情况下,可以通过改善可再生能源结构、调整产业结构向绿色企业发展、重视固定资产投资的环保性来减少碳排放。此外,结果还验证了 EKC 假设。结果显示,印尼人均 GDP 与二氧化碳排放量之间呈反 U 型曲线。印尼最快的碳排放峰值出现在情景七下,预计在 2040 年。虽然每公斤二氧化碳当量征收 30 印尼盾的碳税和核电需要数十年才能减少碳排放,但碳税仍可作为参考,并具有实施优势。对于尚未获得可立即实施碳税经验的印尼来说,这一成果是一个良好的开端,有助于决策者实施合理措施,实现印尼的碳排放峰值。这项研究为碳税政策、核能采用、EKC 动力、全球政策影响以及促进碳减排国际合作提供了可操作的国际见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model

Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model

This study aims to develop a system dynamic (SD) forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO2e carbon tax on carbon emissions, estimate future carbon emissions under ten scenarios, without and with the carbon tax, and estimate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) to predict Indonesia’s carbon emission peak. Carbon emission drivers in this study are decomposed into several factors, namely energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, GDP per capita, population, and fixed-asset investment. This study included nuclear power utilization starting in 2038. The research gaps addressed by this study compared to previous research are (1) use of the ex-ante approach, (2) inclusion of nuclear power plants, (3) testing the EKC hypothesis, and (4) contribution to government policy. The simulation results show that under the carbon tax, carbon emissions can be reduced by improving renewable energy structures, adjusting industrial structures to green businesses, and emphasizing fixed asset investment more environmentally friendly. Moreover, the result approved the EKC hypothesis. It shows an inverse U-shaped curve between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. Indonesia’s fastest carbon emission peak is under scenario seven and is expected in 2040. Although an IDR 30 per kg CO2e carbon tax and nuclear power will take decades to reduce carbon emissions, the carbon tax can still be a reference and has advantages to implement. This result can be a good beginning step for Indonesia, which has yet to gain experience with a carbon tax that can be implemented immediately and is helpful to decision-makers in putting into practice sensible measures to attain Indonesia’s carbon emission peaking. This research provides actionable insights internationally on carbon tax policies, nuclear energy adoption, EKC dynamics, global policy implications, and fostering international cooperation for carbon emission reductions.

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来源期刊
Geography and Sustainability
Geography and Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
16.70
自引率
3.10%
发文量
32
审稿时长
41 days
期刊介绍: Geography and Sustainability serves as a central hub for interdisciplinary research and education aimed at promoting sustainable development from an integrated geography perspective. By bridging natural and human sciences, the journal fosters broader analysis and innovative thinking on global and regional sustainability issues. Geography and Sustainability welcomes original, high-quality research articles, review articles, short communications, technical comments, perspective articles and editorials on the following themes: Geographical Processes: Interactions with and between water, soil, atmosphere and the biosphere and their spatio-temporal variations; Human-Environmental Systems: Interactions between humans and the environment, resilience of socio-ecological systems and vulnerability; Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing: Ecosystem structure, processes, services and their linkages with human wellbeing; Sustainable Development: Theory, practice and critical challenges in sustainable development.
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