Economic Systems最新文献

{"title":"China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network","authors":"Cuixia Jiang ,&nbsp;Haijing Gao ,&nbsp;Qifa Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span><span>We explore and compare the fundamental laws of risk contagion under different shocks during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Using the daily returns of financial market indices and the monthly growth rates of macroeconomic data for two periods, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2010, and from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, we construct a macro-financial network with the mixed-frequency vector </span>autoregression (MF-VAR) method to produce well-defined measures of intra-system and cross-system risk contagion. We investigate the differences in risk contagion under different types of major events using an </span>event study model. The empirical results show that the </span>financial system is the center of risk contagion. Regarding the direction of the cross-system risk contagion, the risk contagion from the financial to the macroeconomic system dominates the contagion in the opposite direction. The impacts of financial and pandemic shocks on the macro-financial risk contagion differ significantly. Importantly, both investor sentiment and consumer confidence mediate these impacts, providing useful insights into the prevention of risk contagion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101212"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Demographic transition and inflation","authors":"Karan Rai,&nbsp;Bhavesh Garg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on inflation<span>. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and treatment of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence by implementing the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) procedure that adopts dynamic common correlated predictors. To this end, we consider two panels consisting of eight advanced economies (AEs) and sixteen emerging market economies (EMEs) to gain insights into the current asymmetric global demographic transition. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the share of the working-age population is inflationary in AEs and disinflationary in EMEs. This analysis suggests that an asymmetry in demographic transition between AEs and EMEs influences inflation differently. Our findings offer clues to policymakers regarding the influence of the cohort size of the prime and young working-age population on inflation. Specifically, policymakers in emerging markets should incorporate information about the changing structure of demographic variables as the asymmetry in transition can lead to varying impacts on inflation compared to the impacts in advanced nations.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101214"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140082847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region","authors":"Mohamad A. Abou Hamia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilizes a panel of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) economies to argue that developing countries need a new central bank paradigm. The study measures central bank independence<span> in the MENA region. We leverage this measure of central bank independence to analyze its impact on inflation rates, economic growth rates, and unemployment rates. Our robust empirical results reveal that central bank independence has no effect on inflation rates, plays no role in economic growth, and does not contribute to job creation. The findings suggest that fixed exchange rates—rather than central bank independence—have been responsible for price stability in the MENA region over the past three decades. The prevailing central bank paradigm assumes that achieving and maintaining price stability would encourage private investment, which would subsequently promote sustained economic growth and job creation in the long term. As developing countries have failed to sustain economic growth and create decent jobs over the past thirty years, the study argues that price stability cannot be maintained, and central bank independence in these countries is likely to diminish. Consequently, the study calls for a new central bank paradigm that empowers central banks to play a more active role both in financing short-term government needs and in creating decent jobs in developing countries.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101230"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141130690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is there a \"Machine Substitution\"? How does the digital economy reshape the employment structure in emerging market countries","authors":"Yingzi Qu ,&nbsp;Sha Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>The exponential growth of the digital economy, particularly in emerging market countries, has significantly reshaped employment structures characterized by substitution and supplementation effects. Will \"machine substitution\" result in labor flow between sectors, or will it precipitate a polarization of employment skills akin to the patterns observed in industrialized countries and lead to structural unemployment? These issues have not yet been adequately addressed. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of digital economy development on the employment structure, considering both sectoral and skill perspectives. Using a panel dataset encompassing 30 emerging market countries between 2006 and 2020, we find that as the digital economy grows, the employment structure from the sectoral perspective improves in a way that favors the tertiary sector, while the employment structure from the skill perspective shows an evolutionary process from a monotonically upgrading effect to \"polarization,\" which differs from the pattern observed in developed countries. The digital economy’s impact on emerging market countries displays discernible heterogeneity and stage-specific characteristics. The mechanism analysis underscores the role of entrepreneurial activity and the relative importance of the tertiary sector compared to the </span>primary sector, as measured by value-added, in mediating the digital economy's effect on the employment structure. Finally, our threshold test reveals a nonlinear regulatory effect of the digital economy on the employment structure, highlighting its critical implications for policymakers and businesses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101237"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141132597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of school dropouts and the impact on youth unemployment: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"Million Sileshi,&nbsp;Kedir Jemal,&nbsp;Bekele Wegi Feyisa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite significant youth school dropouts in Ethiopia, the household characteristics that contribute to dropouts and the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment remain unclear. To fill this gap, this study analyzes the factors that influence youth dropouts and evaluates the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment in Ethiopia using data from the 2019 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We employ endogenous switching regression to estimate the impact of youth dropouts on the likelihood that a household has unemployed youths and the number of unemployed youths in the household. The findings reveal that different parental characteristics such as age, education, and whether parents live together are negatively associated with the probability of youth dropouts, while households with a Muslim head are more likely to have school dropouts than Orthodox-headed households. Households who have multiple income sources, are located in rural areas, are located far from the school, and have disabled family members are also found to be more likely to have youth dropouts. In addition, our findings reveal that youth dropouts increase the probability of having unemployed youths in the household and raise the number of unemployed youths in the household. The study’s findings highlight the need for considering households’ characteristics and other factors associated with youth dropouts when developing educational interventions to reduce youth dropouts in Ethiopia. Furthermore, investment in parental education and infrastructural facilities such as roads and schools could reduce youth unemployment in Ethiopia, particularly in rural areas where public schools are the only option.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101228"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141050967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial frictions in a macroeconometric model: A counterfactual analysis for the case of Slovenia","authors":"Darja Zabavnik ,&nbsp;Miroslav Verbič","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates the importance of modelling the effects of financial frictions in a macroeconometric framework for the small open economy of Slovenia. We enhance the model with additional behavioural equations pertaining to business and residential investment, the respective lending rates, and the gross operating surplus of non-financial companies. The estimation period spans from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, meaning a period of significant financial distress was included in the analysis. Counterfactual analysis was conducted by comparing simulation results from a macroeconometric model with the explicit modelling of financial frictions to a model with limited transmission effects. The results indicate that financial frictions significantly hinder macroeconomic development under adverse macroeconomic scenarios. Policymakers’ measures should focus on maintaining financial sector stability and enabling external financing access for non-financial companies and households during adverse economic situations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101224"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140884771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental protection taxes and green productivity: Evidence from listed companies in China","authors":"Zhijun Yan ,&nbsp;Yuting Jia ,&nbsp;Bingbing Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enforcing an environmental protection tax<span><span> is a pivotal institutional measure for addressing environmental and climate change challenges and marking a substantial advancement in ecological development. This study aims to explore the influence of environmental protection taxes on the \"green\" productivity of the manufacturing industry<span> through an analysis of Chinese listed companies. Initially, the Dynamic Slacks-Based Measure (DSBM) method is employed to estimate the \"green\" production efficiency levels of 175 listed companies in China from 2016 to 2020. Subsequently, by aligning pollution tax standards issued by local governments and relevant environmental protection departments with microlevel data from the CSMAR database, wind database, listed company annual reports, and social responsibility reports, the sample was refined to 833 data points. Using the implementation of the environmental protection tax policy in 2018 as a natural experiment, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is applied for empirical testing. The empirical results reveal a counterintuitive negative correlation between the environmental protection tax and the \"green\" productivity of companies, contradicting the predictions of the Porter hypothesis. This suggests that stringent environmental regulations hinder the development of green technologies. The adverse impact of environmental protection taxes on \"green\" productivity is attributed to heightened environmental legitimacy pressures and increasing environmental uncertainty risks companies face. Further </span></span>exploratory analysis<span> indicated that the digital economy and green finance<span> have a positive moderating effect, significantly mitigating the negative impact of environmental protection taxes on companies' overall \"green\" productivity. Consequently, dynamically optimizing environmental tax policies is imperative to alleviate companies' environmental legitimacy pressures and uncertainty risks. Additionally, capitalizing on the opportunities the digital economy presents and leveraging green finance policies have emerged as effective strategies for realizing the Porter effect of environmental protection taxes.</span></span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101213"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140275940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Place-based policies and capital misallocation: Evidence from Chinese cities","authors":"Yi Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of place-based policy on urban capital misallocation, primarily using China’s special economic zone (SEZ) reform and city-level data from 2003–2018. This study finds that creating SEZs leads to an over-allocation of capital to cities, increasing capital misallocation in cities by at least 20%. This results in an average annual loss of 0.34% of real gross domestic product for cities that establish SEZs. The heterogeneity analysis at the spatio-temporal level suggests that SEZs can cause capital misallocation by distorting the efficient location of capital flows. Moreover, SEZs primarily created to help economically distressed regions can lead to even more significant capital misallocation. The reform leads to the most considerable misallocation in the city with the most efficient initial capital allocation, which is the main path to its effect. In addition, this study finds that the industrial selection preferences of SEZs and local protection behaviour are two important channels through which SEZs exert their effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140465946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Globalization in lifelong gender inclusive education for structural transformation in Africa","authors":"Simplice A. Asongu ,&nbsp;Jean R.F.K. Bouanza ,&nbsp;Peter Agyemang-Mintah","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101218","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101218","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study examines the relevance of globalization in lifelong gender inclusive education for structural transformation. The focus of the research is on 41 countries in Africa using data from 2004 to 2021. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed to assess the problem statement within the remit of interactive regressions. Gender inclusive lifelong learning is measured as gender inclusive education acquired during the three levels of education, notably: primary, secondary and tertiary inclusive education stages. Total globalization and corresponding components (social, economic and political dynamics) are employed as moderators. The attendant sub-components of economic (i.e., trade and financial) and social (i.e., interpersonal, informational and cultural) globalization are also employed for robustness purposes. The hypotheses that globalization and gender inclusive lifelong learning individually influence structural transformation are not validated. Furthermore, the hypothesis that globalization dynamics moderate lifelong gender inclusive education to promote structural transformation is also not validated. Clarification as to why the hypotheses are not validated is provided. Policy implications are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101218"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140403848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of the heterogenous fiscal policy stance of euro-area member states on ECB monetary policy","authors":"Linas Jurkšas","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This article assesses the influence of the fiscal stance of different euro-area members on the monetary policy actions of the </span>European Central Bank<span>. This issue has increased in relevance due to the widening disparities in the levels of debt across euro-area member states. We utilise a thick modelling approach that includes various GMM model specifications for the five largest euro area economies using quarterly projections data from 2002 to 2022. The findings indicate that the fiscal deficits of different euro area countries did not consistently exert a substantial impact on monetary policymaking. This conclusion holds even after the COVID-19 shock, with projected inflation remaining the most consistently significant indicator.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101216"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140201218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}