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The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels 公共和私人债务激增的经济后果：初始条件和渠道
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101194
{"title":"The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic and surged further in 2020. The high indebtedness raises concern that it will undermine future economic prospects. Contributing to the ongoing debate, we use the local projection method to dynamically study the behavior of economic activity and its main components after public and private debt surges. A new dataset on debt surges in 190 countries between 1970 and 2020 is used. Debt surges are followed by persistently weaker economic growth. However, this negative relationship does not always hold, as it depends on the type of debt surge: rapid increases in public debt have the most negative impact, particularly when an economy operates with a large positive output gap. Debt surges also tend to be followed by worse economic performance if the initial total debt levels are high. Public debt surges lead to weaker private and public investment. Surges in nonfinancial corporate debt are followed by lower private and public investment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139586675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The struggle between capitalists and workers concerning patent and monetary policies in a Schumpeterian economy 熊彼特经济中资本家与工人之间关于专利和货币政策的斗争
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101185
{"title":"The struggle between capitalists and workers concerning patent and monetary policies in a Schumpeterian economy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper analyzes the conflict of interests between capitalists and workers concerning patent and monetary policy in a Schumpeterian growth model with cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints in the R&amp;D sector, where capitalists own assets and workers supply labor. We find that (i) higher R&amp;D productivity, lower CIA constraints, and a lower discount rate produce non-linear effects in the conflicts concerning the markup and the nominal interest rate, decreasing the former and increasing the latter in low-growth environments and having the opposite or no effects otherwise, (ii) the markup and the nominal interest rate have non-linear effects on the conflicts concerning the other similar to (i), (iii) considering less restrictive distributions of assets, labor supply, seigniorage revenues, monetary balances and financing of CIA constraints reduces, in general, the conflicts concerning the markup and interest rate. We conclude that policymakers will only be able to use patent and monetary policies to simultaneously promote economic growth and reduce the conflict of interest concerning the other if R&amp;D productivity is sufficiently high. Otherwise, each policy can be used either to promote economic growth at the cost of exacerbating the conflicts of interest concerning the other or achieve the opposite effect.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000074/pdfft?md5=539b040d8ac0ad805e2623dbf2b7d02e&pid=1-s2.0-S0939362524000074-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139515168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The interaction between corruption, bank cost efficiency and economic development in Italy 意大利腐败、银行成本效率与经济发展之间的相互作用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101227
{"title":"The interaction between corruption, bank cost efficiency and economic development in Italy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101227","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we assess the interaction between corruption, bank cost efficiency, and economic development. Existing literature on the subject normally focuses separately on the link between corruption, financial development, and growth, and finds ambiguous results, not distinguishing between different types of credit institutions. We use Italian disaggregated data from 2004 to 2012, considering cooperative and non-cooperative banks, to determine whether controlling corruption affects banks’ cost efficiency in Italian provinces and promotes economic development. Utilizing a panel autoregressive model, we find that controlling corruption magnifies the positive impact of banks’ cost efficiency on economic development. Evidence of a positive effect of the interaction is observed, particularly in the case of non-cooperative banks and for higher values of the Control of Corruption Index.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000499/pdfft?md5=bfdd006cfad0de86020afb637620e6a4&pid=1-s2.0-S0939362524000499-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141026043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective 美国不确定性冲击对实体和金融市场的影响：多国视角
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101180
{"title":"US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101180","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101180","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>The international propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States is not fully understood, despite extensive literature on domestic effects. This study examines the impact of U.S. financial, </span>macroeconomic<span>, and policy uncertainty on credit growth, stock prices, economic activity, bond yields, and inflation in five major recipients of U.S. foreign investment from 1950 to 2019. Findings highlight the pivotal role of U.S. financial uncertainty in driving global business cycles. Increased uncertainties in the U.S. financial sector negatively affect global economic activity by impeding credit and stock prices, limiting funding opportunities for firms and households worldwide. This underscores the significant influence of U.S. financial markets on global economic fluctuations.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139499734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of infrastructure investment on multidimensional poverty. Evidence from Chinese rural migrant workers 基础设施投资对多维贫困的影响。来自中国农民工的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101239
{"title":"The impact of infrastructure investment on multidimensional poverty. Evidence from Chinese rural migrant workers","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101239","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101239","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Multidimensional poverty<span> is an important issue of the world economy. The present paper uses data from China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) from 2015 to 2018 and macro data at the prefectural level to investigate the impact of infrastructure investment on multidimensional poverty of rural migrant workers. First, we find relatively high incidence of multidimensional poverty among rural migrant workers. Second, we find that infrastructure investment can significantly reduce poverty. Such result is robust after considering various forms of endogeneity and robustness tests. Government intervention strengthens alleviation effect of infrastructure investment on multidimensional poverty, whereas financial development weakens such effect. The multiplier effects and marginal benefits of infrastructure investment is relatively small at present, shown in the limitations in enhancement in social security and lodgment of rural migrant workers. Infrastructure investment related to transportation and telecommunication has the greatest effects in reducing poverty and the effects are stronger in regions with lower income.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141412359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy shock and corporate innovation: Evidence from China 货币政策冲击与企业创新：来自中国的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101226
{"title":"Monetary policy shock and corporate innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper investigates whether and how monetary policy shock (MPS) affects corporate innovation using a large sample of 3,082 Chinese listed firms over the period 2007–2019. We provide robust evidence that firms increase their innovative activities when faced with MPS. Further analyses show that firms in competitive </span>industries or with less market power are more inclined to increase innovation in the event of MPS, and that the influence of MPS on corporate innovation is more pronounced for firms with more growth opportunities or better financial conditions. We also find that firms tend to increase innovation to a larger extent in expansionary periods than in contractionary ones.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141054256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does local government debt affect bank loan pricing? Evidence from loan-level data 地方政府债务如何影响银行贷款定价？来自贷款层面数据的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101238
{"title":"How does local government debt affect bank loan pricing? Evidence from loan-level data","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101238","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101238","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Existing research focuses on the crowding out effect of local government debt on the quantity of corporate bank loans, but hardly explores the impact of local government debt on bank loan prices. This paper empirically finds that a rise in local government debt increases bank loan prices, based on the loan-level data of Chinese listed companies from 2011 to 2018. This result is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. Besides, local government debt is found to affect the costs of unsecured loans and short-term loans more strongly. Hence, in response to the expansion of local government debt, enterprises may replace transaction loans with relationship loans to control financing costs. The mechanism tests show that local government debt increases loan prices by increasing both financial constraints and environmental uncertainty. The paper provides new insights into the impact of local government debt on corporate financing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141253030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Individualism, innovation, and inequality: Exploring the nexus 个人主义、创新和不平等：探索两者之间的关系
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101252
Daniel V. Santos, Oscar Afonso, Paulo B. Vasconcelos
{"title":"Individualism, innovation, and inequality: Exploring the nexus","authors":"Daniel V. Santos, Oscar Afonso, Paulo B. Vasconcelos","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101252","url":null,"abstract":"We provide an alternative explanation for the direction of technological change and the related wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. To this end, we formulate a skill-biased technological change model in which households’ decisions on consumption, savings, and human-capital accumulation are influenced by the level of individualism. We conclude that more individualistic cultures experience higher technological-knowledge bias toward skilled technologies, larger output growth rates, and higher wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. We also find that union bargaining only reduces wage inequality between skilled and unskilled at moderate levels of individualism, while introducing redistributive income taxes does not necessarily reduce income inequality.","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142200705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Green central banking and game theory: The Chicken Game-approach 绿色中央银行与博弈论：小鸡博弈法
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251
Fabian Alex
{"title":"Green central banking and game theory: The Chicken Game-approach","authors":"Fabian Alex","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the determinants of the probability that a central bank chooses to make its financial sector green. We derive a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium from a strategic setting of two monetary authorities choosing simultaneously between the alternatives of greening and conducting business as usual. Using a very general setup, we obtain a model that nests most of the usual 2 × 2-situations in game theory. “Green” avoids a country’s contribution to an externality experienced by both, but also encompasses a sacrifice of slowing down economic performance. The probability of greening is found to decrease whenever “greening” means a larger sacrifice for the other country, while it increases with the size of both countries, the rate of internalization applied to the externality as well as the severity of this externality. Unlike the typical (pure) free-riding approach to international coordination on environmental issues, we find some willingness of countries to sacrifice wealth for the sake of avoiding a worst case. In a repeated setting, cooperative solutions can be established. The influence of discounting on the stability of these solutions is ambiguous.","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142200712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Technological catch-up, nonmonotonicity, and convergence: Parametric evidence from the BRICS and European banking systems 技术追赶、非单调性和趋同：来自金砖五国和欧洲银行体系的参数证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学
Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101253
Navendu Prakash, Shveta Singh, Seema Sharma
{"title":"Technological catch-up, nonmonotonicity, and convergence: Parametric evidence from the BRICS and European banking systems","authors":"Navendu Prakash, Shveta Singh, Seema Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101253","url":null,"abstract":"IT-driven productivity growth offers banks an intriguing opportunity to differentiate their offerings in a monopolistic market, introduce attractive products, enhance customer service, streamline back-office processes, and ultimately achieve the twin goals of cost minimization and profit maximization. However, there has been no convincing explanation for the observed divergence in the IT-productivity literature, raising doubts about whether IT can significantly improve performance in contemporary banking markets. The article examines the role of IT-led productivity growth in governing the direction and magnitude of intra-industry and inter-country convergence by investigating the potential nonmonotonicity of IT in influencing frontier-based efficiency of the BRICS and European banking markets. Findings reveal U-shaped associations between IT and cost (profit) efficiency, suggesting that excessive investment in IT may explain the productivity conundrum for BRICS nations. IT capital is not a significant driver of cost efficiency for European nations. Nevertheless, R&D spending significantly influences frontier efficiency, reinforcing that European banks can achieve frontier-level performance by investing in innovative solutions. Inter-regional comparisons reveal that BRICS banks are converging with their European counterparts by leveraging IT solutions, while diminishing marginal benefits for the latter reinforces the presence of a catch-up effect. Intra-industry comparisons reveal that size, age, and R&D intensity drive technological catch-up and convergence.","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142200709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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