Economic Systems最新文献

Comovement and Global Imbalances of Current Accounts 经常账户的联动与全球失衡

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101199

Yu You , Junsoo Lee , Yoonbai Kim , Zheng Yang

{"title":"Comovement and Global Imbalances of Current Accounts","authors":"Yu You , Junsoo Lee , Yoonbai Kim , Zheng Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>In contrast to existing studies that have paid limited attention to comovement in the current account balances of inter-related countries, we employ a dynamic factor model to evaluate the contributions of the common global factor, group factors (advanced or emerging countries), and country-specific factors for 12 advanced and eight emerging economies from 1970 to 2017. We find that current account balances are largely driven by the group factor for advanced economies; however, current account balances in most emerging economies are primarily driven by country-specific factors. We then investigate the roles of these factors using the traditional empirical model for current account determination. Global and group factors are essential for addressing current accounts’ cross-sectional dependence in panel data models<span>. We find that the empirical results introducing these factors are stronger, and the coefficients of relevant variables become more significant. Furthermore, we examine how these factors are related to the structural determinants of current account balances, revealing that more capital mobility and </span></span>trade openness tend to increase the share of the group factor, while increases in country-specific determinants lead to a greater share in the country factor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101199"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139924015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What makes environment-related technologies less effective? The role of uncertainty 是什么导致与环境有关的技术效果不佳？不确定性的作用

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101222

Hung Manh Pham , Lan Khanh Chu , Dung Phuong Hoang

{"title":"What makes environment-related technologies less effective? The role of uncertainty","authors":"Hung Manh Pham , Lan Khanh Chu , Dung Phuong Hoang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101222","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101222","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This study examines the effect of environment-related technologies on environmental quality, conditional on the level of uncertainty. We apply two panel </span>quantile<span> regression approaches to panel data on the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the period 1990–2015. The empirical results suggest that environment-related technologies and uncertainty both significantly help improve the environmental conditions, although the magnitude of these impacts vary across the level of environmental footprint. Notably, higher uncertainty could negate the beneficial effects of green patents on the environmental footprint, especially in a highly degraded environment. Several preliminary tests, such as cross-sectional dependence, stationarity, cointegration, and nonnormality, provide support for the adoption of panel quantile regression. The significant and heterogeneous relationships between the environmental footprint and its determining factors are also established. This research offers a scientific explanation for the ineffective adoption of environment-related technologies for improving environmental quality in many OECD countries for years and hence has valuable implications for policy makers about leveraging the beneficial impacts of environment-related technologies on the ecosystem.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101222"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140884827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Coherence of the business cycles of prospective members of the euro area and the euro area business cycle 欧元区未来成员的商业周期与欧元区商业周期的一致性

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101221

Jakob de Haan , Jan P.A.M. Jacobs , Renske Zijm

引用次数: 0

Green central banking and game theory: The Chicken Game-approach 绿色中央银行与博弈论：小鸡博弈法

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251

Fabian Alex

{"title":"Green central banking and game theory: The Chicken Game-approach","authors":"Fabian Alex","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the determinants of the probability that a central bank chooses to make its financial sector green. We derive a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium from a strategic setting of two monetary authorities choosing simultaneously between the alternatives of greening and conducting business as usual. Using a very general setup, we obtain a model that nests most of the usual 2 × 2-situations in game theory. “Green” avoids a country’s contribution to an externality experienced by both, but also encompasses a sacrifice of slowing down economic performance. The probability of greening is found to decrease whenever “greening” means a larger sacrifice for the other country, while it increases with the size of both countries, the rate of internalization applied to the externality as well as the severity of this externality. Unlike the typical (pure) free-riding approach to international coordination on environmental issues, we find some willingness of countries to sacrifice wealth for the sake of avoiding a worst case. In a repeated setting, cooperative solutions can be established. The influence of discounting on the stability of these solutions is ambiguous.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101251"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142200712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A maximum entropy bootstrap approach to financial development and economic growth in China 中国金融发展与经济增长的最大熵自举方法

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101219

Renfang Tian , Jingjing Xu , Hui Feng , Adian McFarlane

{"title":"A maximum entropy bootstrap approach to financial development and economic growth in China","authors":"Renfang Tian , Jingjing Xu , Hui Feng , Adian McFarlane","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motivated by China’s rising global economic prominence, which impacts many regional and global development issues, and the unsettled relationship between financial development and economic growth, this study uses data from 1980 to 2019 to re-examine the nexus between economic growth and financial development in this country. This study distinguishes itself from existing literature by using the maximum entropy bootstrap inference method, examining multiple dimensions of financial development and economic growth, and accounting for structural breaks. The first finding reveals a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from aggregate economic growth to financial development. This causality is observed to mainly go towards the depth and access of financial markets and the depth of financial institutions. The second indicates that bidirectional Granger-causal relationships exist between financial development with exports and imports. The third reveals that structural breaks exhibit varying levels of statistical significance in the relationship between financial development and economic growth. These findings suggest that policymakers need to further deepen and broaden capital markets to strengthen financial development and economic growth linkages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101219"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network 用混频宏观金融网络分析中国风险传染

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212

Cuixia Jiang , Haijing Gao , Qifa Xu

{"title":"China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network","authors":"Cuixia Jiang , Haijing Gao , Qifa Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span><span>We explore and compare the fundamental laws of risk contagion under different shocks during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Using the daily returns of financial market indices and the monthly growth rates of macroeconomic data for two periods, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2010, and from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, we construct a macro-financial network with the mixed-frequency vector </span>autoregression (MF-VAR) method to produce well-defined measures of intra-system and cross-system risk contagion. We investigate the differences in risk contagion under different types of major events using an </span>event study model. The empirical results show that the </span>financial system is the center of risk contagion. Regarding the direction of the cross-system risk contagion, the risk contagion from the financial to the macroeconomic system dominates the contagion in the opposite direction. The impacts of financial and pandemic shocks on the macro-financial risk contagion differ significantly. Importantly, both investor sentiment and consumer confidence mediate these impacts, providing useful insights into the prevention of risk contagion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101212"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographic transition and inflation 人口结构转型与通货膨胀

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214

Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

{"title":"Demographic transition and inflation","authors":"Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on inflation<span>. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and treatment of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence by implementing the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) procedure that adopts dynamic common correlated predictors. To this end, we consider two panels consisting of eight advanced economies (AEs) and sixteen emerging market economies (EMEs) to gain insights into the current asymmetric global demographic transition. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the share of the working-age population is inflationary in AEs and disinflationary in EMEs. This analysis suggests that an asymmetry in demographic transition between AEs and EMEs influences inflation differently. Our findings offer clues to policymakers regarding the influence of the cohort size of the prime and young working-age population on inflation. Specifically, policymakers in emerging markets should incorporate information about the changing structure of demographic variables as the asymmetry in transition can lead to varying impacts on inflation compared to the impacts in advanced nations.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101214"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140082847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region 为什么发展中国家需要新的中央银行范式？中东和北非地区的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230

Mohamad A. Abou Hamia

{"title":"Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region","authors":"Mohamad A. Abou Hamia","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilizes a panel of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) economies to argue that developing countries need a new central bank paradigm. The study measures central bank independence<span> in the MENA region. We leverage this measure of central bank independence to analyze its impact on inflation rates, economic growth rates, and unemployment rates. Our robust empirical results reveal that central bank independence has no effect on inflation rates, plays no role in economic growth, and does not contribute to job creation. The findings suggest that fixed exchange rates—rather than central bank independence—have been responsible for price stability in the MENA region over the past three decades. The prevailing central bank paradigm assumes that achieving and maintaining price stability would encourage private investment, which would subsequently promote sustained economic growth and job creation in the long term. As developing countries have failed to sustain economic growth and create decent jobs over the past thirty years, the study argues that price stability cannot be maintained, and central bank independence in these countries is likely to diminish. Consequently, the study calls for a new central bank paradigm that empowers central banks to play a more active role both in financing short-term government needs and in creating decent jobs in developing countries.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101230"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141130690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is there a "Machine Substitution"? How does the digital economy reshape the employment structure in emerging market countries 是否存在 "机器替代"？数字经济如何重塑新兴市场国家的就业结构？

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237

Yingzi Qu , Sha Fan

{"title":"Is there a \"Machine Substitution\"? How does the digital economy reshape the employment structure in emerging market countries","authors":"Yingzi Qu , Sha Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>The exponential growth of the digital economy, particularly in emerging market countries, has significantly reshaped employment structures characterized by substitution and supplementation effects. Will \"machine substitution\" result in labor flow between sectors, or will it precipitate a polarization of employment skills akin to the patterns observed in industrialized countries and lead to structural unemployment? These issues have not yet been adequately addressed. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of digital economy development on the employment structure, considering both sectoral and skill perspectives. Using a panel dataset encompassing 30 emerging market countries between 2006 and 2020, we find that as the digital economy grows, the employment structure from the sectoral perspective improves in a way that favors the tertiary sector, while the employment structure from the skill perspective shows an evolutionary process from a monotonically upgrading effect to \"polarization,\" which differs from the pattern observed in developed countries. The digital economy’s impact on emerging market countries displays discernible heterogeneity and stage-specific characteristics. The mechanism analysis underscores the role of entrepreneurial activity and the relative importance of the tertiary sector compared to the </span>primary sector, as measured by value-added, in mediating the digital economy's effect on the employment structure. Finally, our threshold test reveals a nonlinear regulatory effect of the digital economy on the employment structure, highlighting its critical implications for policymakers and businesses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101237"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141132597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Determinants of school dropouts and the impact on youth unemployment: Evidence from Ethiopia 辍学的决定因素及其对青年失业的影响：埃塞俄比亚的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学

Economic Systems Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228

Million Sileshi, Kedir Jemal, Bekele Wegi Feyisa

{"title":"Determinants of school dropouts and the impact on youth unemployment: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"Million Sileshi, Kedir Jemal, Bekele Wegi Feyisa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite significant youth school dropouts in Ethiopia, the household characteristics that contribute to dropouts and the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment remain unclear. To fill this gap, this study analyzes the factors that influence youth dropouts and evaluates the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment in Ethiopia using data from the 2019 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We employ endogenous switching regression to estimate the impact of youth dropouts on the likelihood that a household has unemployed youths and the number of unemployed youths in the household. The findings reveal that different parental characteristics such as age, education, and whether parents live together are negatively associated with the probability of youth dropouts, while households with a Muslim head are more likely to have school dropouts than Orthodox-headed households. Households who have multiple income sources, are located in rural areas, are located far from the school, and have disabled family members are also found to be more likely to have youth dropouts. In addition, our findings reveal that youth dropouts increase the probability of having unemployed youths in the household and raise the number of unemployed youths in the household. The study’s findings highlight the need for considering households’ characteristics and other factors associated with youth dropouts when developing educational interventions to reduce youth dropouts in Ethiopia. Furthermore, investment in parental education and infrastructural facilities such as roads and schools could reduce youth unemployment in Ethiopia, particularly in rural areas where public schools are the only option.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101228"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141050967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0