{"title":"The impact of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on stock markets’ high-moment risk","authors":"Asil Azimli , Demet Beton Kalmaz","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101242","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>We investigated the time and frequency connectedness between Russia’s geopolitical risk (R-GPR) and the high-order moments (volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) of equity markets in eight countries: U.S., Belgium, France, Germany, U.K., Italy, Switzerland, and Spain. Our findings showed that R-GPR and realized volatility co-move in the short- and medium-term frequency bands during wartime, except in the U.S. and U.K. markets. Concerning realized skewness, significant co-movements were observed between R-GPR and Belgium and Germany during the short- and medium-frequency bands, implying that higher skewness (crash risk) was associated with higher R-GPR. Contrastingly, the realized </span>kurtosis and R-GPR were connected at a long-term frequency. Finally, R-GPR negatively led to realized kurtosis in the U.S. market, implying the U.S. market’s hedging potential for fat-tail risk. Our results provide essential insights into the investment and risk-management practices of market participants with different investment horizons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"49 1","pages":"Article 101242"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Systems","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000645","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We investigated the time and frequency connectedness between Russia’s geopolitical risk (R-GPR) and the high-order moments (volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) of equity markets in eight countries: U.S., Belgium, France, Germany, U.K., Italy, Switzerland, and Spain. Our findings showed that R-GPR and realized volatility co-move in the short- and medium-term frequency bands during wartime, except in the U.S. and U.K. markets. Concerning realized skewness, significant co-movements were observed between R-GPR and Belgium and Germany during the short- and medium-frequency bands, implying that higher skewness (crash risk) was associated with higher R-GPR. Contrastingly, the realized kurtosis and R-GPR were connected at a long-term frequency. Finally, R-GPR negatively led to realized kurtosis in the U.S. market, implying the U.S. market’s hedging potential for fat-tail risk. Our results provide essential insights into the investment and risk-management practices of market participants with different investment horizons.
期刊介绍:
Economic Systems is a refereed journal for the analysis of causes and consequences of the significant institutional variety prevailing among developed, developing, and emerging economies, as well as attempts at and proposals for their reform. The journal is open to micro and macro contributions, theoretical as well as empirical, the latter to analyze related topics against the background of country or region-specific experiences. In this respect, Economic Systems retains its long standing interest in the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe and other former transition economies, but also encourages contributions that cover any part of the world, including Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, or Africa.