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Reflections on the Value of Anthropology for Understanding Population Processes 人类学对理解人口进程价值的思考
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12672
Daniel Jordan Smith
{"title":"Reflections on the Value of Anthropology for Understanding Population Processes","authors":"Daniel Jordan Smith","doi":"10.1111/padr.12672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12672","url":null,"abstract":"In this commentary—written to celebrate, but also evaluate, the relationship between anthropology and demography at the 50th anniversary of the journal—I focus on the insights gained and the challenges posed by applying anthropological theory and utilizing ethnographic methods in population studies. <jats:italic>Population and Development Review</jats:italic> has been the venue of choice for many anthropologists because it has consistently recognized and welcomed the contributions of ethnographic research. Further, the journal has provided a forum for critical engagement between anthropology and demography, publishing research findings that illustrate the benefits of this engagement as well as commentaries that acknowledge, examine, and assess the sometimes‐difficult relationship between the two disciplines. To showcase the possibilities anthropology offers for understanding puzzles central to demographic inquiry, I draw special attention to research and scholarship focused on Africa's fertility transition.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"224 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fertility Transitions in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: The Role of Preferences 中低收入国家的生育率转变：偏好的作用
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12675
John Bongaarts
{"title":"Fertility Transitions in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: The Role of Preferences","authors":"John Bongaarts","doi":"10.1111/padr.12675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12675","url":null,"abstract":"Since the mid‐twentieth century, the Global South has experienced unprecedently rapid and pervasive changes in reproductive behavior with fertility declining from high pre‐transitional levels to below 3 births per woman in most low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs). Over time a rough consensus has been reached on major theories about the causes of these declines. However, a controversy remains about the widely held view that changing reproductive preferences (i.e., declining desired family size and rising demand for birth limitation) are the dominant drivers of fertility transitions. Several studies question this conclusion and suggest instead that the rising implementation of existing demand is the main cause of the reproductive revolution in LMICs. The objective of this study is to reconcile the competing “demand” and “implementation” perspectives. This paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of published decompositions which take trends in the observed total fertility and contraceptive prevalence and break them down into their respective demand and implementation components. The main conclusion from this exercise is that fertility transitions are driven by changes in both preferences and their implementation. Claims of a completely dominant role for either demand or implementation are based on flawed methods and hence must be rejected.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Population in an Uncertain World: Approaches, New Uses, and Troubling Limitations 不确定世界中的人口预测：方法、新用途和令人担忧的局限性
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12674
Ronald Lee
{"title":"Forecasting Population in an Uncertain World: Approaches, New Uses, and Troubling Limitations","authors":"Ronald Lee","doi":"10.1111/padr.12674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12674","url":null,"abstract":"The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Societal Upheaval and the Contraceptive Transition 社会动荡与避孕过渡
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12663
Mathias Lerch
{"title":"Societal Upheaval and the Contraceptive Transition","authors":"Mathias Lerch","doi":"10.1111/padr.12663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12663","url":null,"abstract":"Human development and family planning programs since the 1970s have led to a fast‐rising prevalence of modern contraceptive means at the global level. However, countries with rising but still low levels of contraceptive use experienced an increasing number of societal upheavals, including armed conflicts, sudden and high‐intensity natural disasters, as well as dramatic effects of health epidemics. This may challenge the continued diffusion of modern means of birth regulation as well as their adherent use. To better understand the role of societal upheavals in the contraceptive transition, we provide a narrative literature review of their multidimensional pathways of influence in the contraceptive decision‐making process. The review suggests four main findings. First, well‐known contemporary barriers to contraceptive use become more salient during societal upheavals. Second, historical barriers reemerge predominantly. Third, societal upheavals exert specific effects on the contraceptive transition, such as through birth replacement, the repopulation of communities, and the sexual vulnerability of girls and young women. Fourth, there are more pathways leading to a reduced (rather than a heightened) contraceptive prevalence. The conclusion discusses the implications of those insights for the contraceptive transition, provides a critical perspective of the literature, and draws avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Alignment, Anticipation, Adaptation, or Lagging Behind? Age‐Based Regulations in Assisted Reproduction and Late Fertility 调整、预测、适应还是落后？辅助生殖和晚育中基于年龄的规定
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12658
Marie‐Caroline Compans
{"title":"Alignment, Anticipation, Adaptation, or Lagging Behind? Age‐Based Regulations in Assisted Reproduction and Late Fertility","authors":"Marie‐Caroline Compans","doi":"10.1111/padr.12658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12658","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on age restrictions on access to infertility treatments and eligibility for their public reimbursement, exploring their relevancy in contexts of rising late birth rates (40+). I explore how age‐based reimbursement policies for in vitro fertilization treatments have responded to these fertility trends in 27 high‐income countries and in which regulatory frameworks for medically assisted reproduction (MAR) very late births (45+) have particularly increased. First, I show that while age limits for treatment reimbursement are well aligned with the prevalence of late fertility in some national contexts, in most countries, strict age restrictions are lagging behind the rise in late births. In others, pronatalist policies have prompted permissive age criteria or law revisions, anticipating or adapting to rising trends in late births. Second, the rise in very late births has been limited in some contexts with strict age‐based rules. However, the analysis suggests that the impact of MAR on very late births may also be influenced by contextual factors other than regulations.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New Data Sources for Demographic Research 人口研究的新数据源
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12671
Casey F. Breen, Dennis M. Feehan
{"title":"New Data Sources for Demographic Research","authors":"Casey F. Breen, Dennis M. Feehan","doi":"10.1111/padr.12671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12671","url":null,"abstract":"We are in the early stages of a new era of demographic research that offers exciting opportunities to quantify demographic phenomena at a scale and resolution once unimaginable. These scientific possibilities are opened up by new sources of data, such as the digital traces that arise from ubiquitous social computing, massive longitudinal datasets produced by the digitization of historical records, and information about previously inaccessible populations reached through innovations in classic modes of data collection. In this commentary, we describe five promising new sources of demographic data and their potential appeal. We identify cross‐cutting challenges shared by these new data sources and argue that realizing their full potential will demand both innovative methodological developments and continued investment in high‐quality, traditional surveys and censuses. Despite these considerable challenges, the future is bright: these new sources of data will lead demographers to develop new theories and revisit and sharpen old ones.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142360345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Health Transitions and the Rise of Modern Contraceptive Prevalence: Demand, Access, and Choice 健康转型与现代避孕普及率的上升：需求、获取和选择
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12662
Jamaica Corker, Ann Biddlecom, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi‐Shavazi, Alex Ezeh, Rodolfo Gómez Ponce de León
{"title":"Health Transitions and the Rise of Modern Contraceptive Prevalence: Demand, Access, and Choice","authors":"Jamaica Corker, Ann Biddlecom, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi‐Shavazi, Alex Ezeh, Rodolfo Gómez Ponce de León","doi":"10.1111/padr.12662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12662","url":null,"abstract":"Improvements in health and mortality, known as the health transition, played important roles in the rise of modern contraceptive prevalence across countries. We describe key mechanisms and selected research evidence that show how health transitions helped shape contraceptive transitions around the world. Mechanisms include how decreases in child mortality rates affect the motivation to use contraception and how the organization and expansion of health care affect key barriers to contraceptive use. Substantial increases in child survival resulting from health transitions increase demand for deliberate fertility regulation and contraceptive use. Improved access to primary health care, particularly maternal and child health services and expansion into rural communities, was associated with increases in modern method use. Country‐specific policies that affected the organization and delivery of health care led to the dominance of particular modern methods in some countries. Empirical evidence is limited on how the quality of health care has affected aggregate level increases in modern method use. Using modern contraceptive prevalence to define the contraceptive transition reflects current data limitations but future research on the relationship of health transitions with macrolevel contraceptive prevalence trends may be able to incorporate more comprehensive aspects of how health transitions impact contraceptive choice and agency.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142329191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recognizing Identity Fluidity in Demographic Research 认识人口研究中的身份流动性
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12670
Aliya Saperstein
{"title":"Recognizing Identity Fluidity in Demographic Research","authors":"Aliya Saperstein","doi":"10.1111/padr.12670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12670","url":null,"abstract":"Standard demographic research has typically constrained the existence of identity fluidity, assuming that demographic categories such as race or ethnicity and sex or gender should be static across the life course and measuring them as such. However, recent research and changes in data collection practices highlight the limitations of this approach by demonstrating fluidity in both racial and gender identities that rivals levels of fluidity in other identity categories, such as sexual orientation, that are more commonly seen as changeable over time. This review examines what is known about current levels of fluidity in gender, sexual orientation, and racial identities as well as known correlates and consequences for research on inequality, based primarily but not exclusively on research conducted in the United States. The implications of fluid identities for data collection and analysis, as well as prospects for future levels of fluidity, are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142321481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rethinking City Population Growth: How Reclassification Matters 反思城市人口增长：重新分类的重要性
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12661
Alfredo Alessandrini, Christoph Deuster, Lewis Dijkstra, Daniela Ghio, Fabrizio Natale
{"title":"Rethinking City Population Growth: How Reclassification Matters","authors":"Alfredo Alessandrini, Christoph Deuster, Lewis Dijkstra, Daniela Ghio, Fabrizio Natale","doi":"10.1111/padr.12661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12661","url":null,"abstract":"City populations grow due to natural change, migration, and areas that are reclassified as part of a city. Because a time series of city boundaries was not available, most analyses ignore reclassification. This paper measures reclassification in a harmonized and transparent manner by applying a new harmonized definition of cities, towns, and rural areas, called the degree of urbanization, to gridded population data between 1980 and 2020. Ignoring reclassification would attribute city population growth equally to natural change and migration. Including the effects of reclassification reveals that two‐thirds of the growth is due to natural change, followed by reclassification (29 percent), and the remainder to migration (4 percent). This demonstrates the importance of accounting for reclassification. It also underlines that discouraging migration to cities will not significantly reduce city population growth.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142236793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Jonathan Swift on People and Poverty 乔纳森-斯威夫特谈人与贫穷
IF 2.5 2区 社会学
Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/padr.12668
{"title":"Jonathan Swift on People and Poverty","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/padr.12668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12668","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142171273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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