Population and Development Review最新文献

Structured Inequality, Uncertain Lifespans: Demographic Perspectives on Predicting Individual‐Level Longevity 结构不平等，不确定寿命：预测个人寿命的人口统计学观点

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-04-13 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70065

Casey F. Breen, Nathan Seltzer

引用次数: 0

Do Social Networks Moderate the Effect of Extreme Weather on Migration? 社交网络是否会缓和极端天气对移民的影响？

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70061

Amanda R. Carrico, Helen Wilson Burns, Katharine M. Donato, Hafizur Rahaman, Kelsea Best

{"title":"Do Social Networks Moderate the Effect of Extreme Weather on Migration?","authors":"Amanda R. Carrico, Helen Wilson Burns, Katharine M. Donato, Hafizur Rahaman, Kelsea Best","doi":"10.1111/padr.70061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70061","url":null,"abstract":"Using retrospective household data collected in southwest Bangladesh, we examine whether social ties to migrants moderate the effects of extreme weather on first migrations. We consider both weak and strong forms of social ties for both domestic and international trips. We also examine differences across male and female household members. Discrete time event history models reveal that migrant social ties predict making a first trip and are stronger for international versus domestic moves. Heat waves and storms/floods are positively associated with males making domestic trips and negatively associated with domestic trips among females. However, the effects are small and not moderated by social ties. In contrast, for male international moves, the effect of heat waves is conditional on the prevalence of ties to other international migrants. In communities with a strong history of international migration, the chance of making a first trip declines as heat waves intensify. Those from communities with a lower prevalence of international migration are more likely to make a first international trip as heat waves reach 15–25 days, after which the risk of migrating declines. Together, these results suggest that migrant networks attenuate, rather than amplify, the relationship between extreme weather and international migration.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"221 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147648948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anticipatory, Chronic, and Imminent: A Typology of Insecurities Underlying Protracted Conflict Displacement and Its Implications 预期的、长期的和迫在眉睫的：长期冲突和流离失所背后的不安全类型及其影响

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70049

Stephanie M. Koning, Goleen Samari, Abigail Weitzman

{"title":"Anticipatory, Chronic, and Imminent: A Typology of Insecurities Underlying Protracted Conflict Displacement and Its Implications","authors":"Stephanie M. Koning, Goleen Samari, Abigail Weitzman","doi":"10.1111/padr.70049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70049","url":null,"abstract":"Protracted armed conflicts increasingly drive long‐term displacement, yet demographic frameworks often treat forced migration from conflict settings as a response to acute, singular events. This study introduces a typology of displacement grounded in the tempo and form of conflict‐related insecurities—anticipatory, chronic, and imminent—and examines their consequences for women displaced from Myanmar to Thailand. Using survey data from 390 women, latent class analysis identified distinct pre‐displacement insecurity profiles and linked them to post‐displacement outcomes, including parallel insecurity profiles, mobility constraints, and labor exploitation. We also examined legal status and residence type as additional understudied yet policy‐relevant post‐displacement outcomes. Most respondents fled under anticipatory or chronic conditions rather than acute violence, underscoring that displacement from protracted conflict settings is often propelled by cumulative structural harm. Regression models showed that women who fled under chronic or imminent insecurity were substantially more likely to experience continued precarity after migration, including camp residence and insecure legal status. These findings highlight the need for temporal nuance in migration theory and humanitarian policy, recognizing conflict displacement as a prolonged process with enduring insecurities for women, families, and future generations, rather than a discrete event.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"119 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147617456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Population Changes and Emerging Challenges to Global Primary Education Provision 人口变化和全球初等教育面临的新挑战

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-26 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70059

Emily Hannum, Jeonghyeok Kim, Fan Wang

{"title":"Population Changes and Emerging Challenges to Global Primary Education Provision","authors":"Emily Hannum, Jeonghyeok Kim, Fan Wang","doi":"10.1111/padr.70059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70059","url":null,"abstract":"Global demographic changes in recent decades have sharply altered the contexts in which governments provide education. Focusing on primary education, we demonstrate, first, that recent demographic trends have been highly polarizing for education systems worldwide. Persistent expansionary pressures burden some of the least‐resourced educational systems, whereas these pressures are reversing in wealthier countries with higher educational expenditures. Second, we document that global educational systems have adapted to narrow gaps in student‐ or child‐teacher ratios, despite polarizing demographic trends. Third, we show that system responses vary where school‐age cohorts are declining, although little is known about the impacts of system responses. And, finally, examining Korea, a case at the leading edge of the transition to population scarcity, we demonstrate that educational system consolidation can introduce new salience to geospatial hierarchies and the political economy of allocative decisions. Policy decentralization and popular resistance stymied a trend in which nonmetropolitan areas bore the brunt of primary school closures and teacher losses, while metropolitan areas saw increases in schools and teachers despite student declines. Research is sorely needed to understand how national educational systems are impacted by and adapting to the disparate forces of population growth and scarcity.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147507869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond Lowest‐Low Fertility: Why Post‐Transitional Populations Follow Divergent Paths 超越最低-低生育率：为什么转型后的人口会走不同的道路

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70052

Stuart Gietel‐Basten, Ignacio Pardo

引用次数: 0

The Demographic and Social Construction of Super‐Diversity 超级多样性的人口与社会建构

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70058

James O'Donnell, James Raymer

{"title":"The Demographic and Social Construction of Super‐Diversity","authors":"James O'Donnell, James Raymer","doi":"10.1111/padr.70058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70058","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of super‐diversity posits that waves of immigration over several decades expand population heterogeneity on multiple social, demographic, economic, political, and legal dimensions, creating a mosaic of social and cultural life in immigrant‐rich spaces. This concept raises important demographic and sociological questions as to how this has happened, particularly in view of the long history of assimilation and integration theories, in which immigrant groups are hypothesized to become more similar to host society populations over time. In this study, we provide a demographic perspective, positioning immigration and integration as forces that influence population heterogeneity. We utilize a detailed dataset of population stocks and flows between 2011 and 2021 from Australia and develop a multiregional demographic model to quantify the contributions of immigration and integration to contemporary diversity. The results show how immigration drives diversification, giving rise to migrant and multidimensional diversity. Integration in terms of citizenship, language proficiency, occupational attainment, and homeownership is strongly evidenced and helps to shift the socioeconomic characteristics of foreign‐born populations and their children, though they do not have substantial impacts on measures of population diversity. These findings provide insights for theorizing and measuring the relationships between immigration and diversity, and their long‐term societal implications.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147447427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring the Impact of Armed Conflict on Population Health: A Guide for Researchers 衡量武装冲突对人口健康的影响：研究人员指南

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-12 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70047

Maya Luetke, Signe Svallfors, Elizabeth Heger Boyle

{"title":"Measuring the Impact of Armed Conflict on Population Health: A Guide for Researchers","authors":"Maya Luetke, Signe Svallfors, Elizabeth Heger Boyle","doi":"10.1111/padr.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70047","url":null,"abstract":"The humanitarian impact of armed conflict remains a significant international issue, with an estimated 2 billion people residing in fragile or conflict‐affected settings. Despite increasing attention and study of armed conflict and its impact on human populations, few studies have evaluated the methods necessary to assess such relationships: how to use disaggregated and granular conflict data, measure and operationalize conflict, etc. In this study, we identify important considerations for conducting armed conflict and health research, including how data structures and decisions might impact conclusions. We discuss the particular characteristics of existing armed conflict datasets and the types of biases that may be present in data drawn from conflict‐affected areas. Further, we demonstrate how data and measurement choices can result in different conclusions and, if handled improperly, even spatial misclassification, bias, and spurious conclusions. Lastly, we illustrate some of these data and measurement choices in an empirical example where we assess the impact of conflict on women's contraceptive use in Nigeria. Using conflict event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and health data from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey in 2018, we show how the relationship between exposure and outcomes varies across different spatiotemporal dimensions of conflict exposure measurement.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147447430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the Relationship between Marriage and Childbearing in East Asia: The Role of Fertility Desires in Japan 重新审视东亚的婚姻与生育关系：生育欲望在日本的作用

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-09 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70050

Fumiya Uchikoshi, Ryota Mugiyama, Shohei Yoda, James M. Raymo

{"title":"Revisiting the Relationship between Marriage and Childbearing in East Asia: The Role of Fertility Desires in Japan","authors":"Fumiya Uchikoshi, Ryota Mugiyama, Shohei Yoda, James M. Raymo","doi":"10.1111/padr.70050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70050","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we propose and evaluate a new framework for understanding “lowest‐low” fertility in East Asia, emphasizing the link between the desire for children and marriage. Recognizing that delayed and declining marriage is the primary reason for low fertility in the region, we posit that marriage decisions are shaped by intentions or incentives (not) to have children. We evaluate this hypothesis using Japan as a case, a society where parenthood is an integral part of the “package” of normative family expectations accompanying marriage, especially for women. After confirming that attitudes toward marriage and fertility are strongly correlated, we estimate discrete‐time hazard models of first marriage using nationally representative longitudinal data. We find that, net of marriage desires, (1) women and men with no desire to have children marry significantly later than those who desire children, and (2) uncertain attitudes toward parenthood are also associated with later marriage for men, but not women. The link between negative or uncertain fertility desires and delayed marriage among men is partially explained by their lower engagement in efforts to find a marriage partner. These results provide insights for policy discussions about declining fertility in East Asia, especially concerns that pro‐natalist policies are mistargeted.","PeriodicalId":51372,"journal":{"name":"Population and Development Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147380784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lina‐MariaMurilloFighting for Control: Power, Reproductive Care and Race in the US‐Mexico BorderlandsThe University of North Carolina Press, 2025, 336 p. $29.95 《为控制而战：美墨边境地区的权力、生殖保健和种族》，北卡罗莱纳大学出版社，2025,336页，29.95美元

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70057

R. SÁNCHEZ RIVERA

引用次数: 0

Three Takes on Low Fertility: A Review Essay* 对低生育率的三个看法：一篇综述文章*

IF 2.5 2区社会学

Population and Development Review Pub Date : 2026-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/padr.70055

Emily Klancher Merchant

引用次数: 0