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Criminal Conflicts and the Killing of Law Enforcement Officers in Mexico 墨西哥的犯罪冲突和对执法人员的杀害
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251370091
Marco Alcocer
{"title":"Criminal Conflicts and the Killing of Law Enforcement Officers in Mexico","authors":"Marco Alcocer","doi":"10.1177/00220027251370091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251370091","url":null,"abstract":"Violence against law enforcement by criminal organizations is pervasive in Latin America yet largely unexplored. What explains why and where law enforcement is violently attacked, who is targeted, and how they are killed? This article contends that conflicts between criminal organizations incentivize warring organizations to attack law enforcement, particularly local officers, with more brazen violence. Two original datasets on killings of law enforcement in Mexico show that killings are overwhelmingly of local officers and most frequently perpetrated through coordinated attacks, not confrontations, executions, or kidnappings. Using data on cartels, I first document a strong association between criminal conflicts and the killing of law enforcement officers, and find that the association is driven by killings of state and municipal officers rather than federal officers enforcing the government crackdown. I further show that criminal conflicts increase brazen killings and killings of officers while off duty.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War 赢得人心？俄乌战争期间美国如何安抚
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251363229
Lauren Sukin, Stephen Herzog, Alexander Lanoszka
{"title":"Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War","authors":"Lauren Sukin, Stephen Herzog, Alexander Lanoszka","doi":"10.1177/00220027251363229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251363229","url":null,"abstract":"Decades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critiques these assumptions, suggesting that restraint may strengthen confidence. When and why do restraint or resolve reassure, and for whom? In light of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we appraise early U.S. attempts to reassure allies and partners using public opinion surveys in 24 countries on six continents. Our novel data, which cover rarely surveyed publics, illuminates conditions under which restraint or resolve reassure. We introduce theoretical mechanisms that predict individuals’ propensity to be reassured by resolve or restraint: prior beliefs about the use of force and geopolitical positioning. The results challenge dominant scholarly narratives. Respondents worldwide were reassured by restraint. Forgoing direct intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian War strengthened the U.S.-led order, successfully balancing NATO members’ interests with those of U.S. Indo-Pacific and Global South partners.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"193 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nationalism, Regime Type, and Trade Agreements 民族主义、政权类型和贸易协定
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251365162
Edward D. Mansfield, Jon C. W. Pevehouse
{"title":"Nationalism, Regime Type, and Trade Agreements","authors":"Edward D. Mansfield, Jon C. W. Pevehouse","doi":"10.1177/00220027251365162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251365162","url":null,"abstract":"Nationalism is on the rise throughout the world. Scholars and practitioners have expressed concern about the effects of rising nationalism on international cooperation, arguing that nationalism poses a risk to the liberal international economic order. Other observers maintain that nationalism need not be associated with trade protectionism. Yet there has been little cross-country research on the effects of nationalism on trade cooperation. We argue that nationalism has led to a reluctance to sign trade agreements in democracies, but that its effects on trade policy in autocracies are ambiguous. Nationalism in the public is associated with antipathy toward trade. Since democratically elected governments must be responsive to their constituents or risk losing office, nationalist governments in democratic countries tend to be protectionist. We find a strong negative relationship between nationalism and signing trade agreements in democracies. These findings shed light on the dynamics of trade and globalization in the current era of nationalism.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Alliance Formation in Regional Space: Shifting the Battlefront Between Competing Hegemonial Powers 区域空间中的联盟形成：竞争霸权国之间战线的转移
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251359720
Kai A. Konrad, Florian Morath
{"title":"Alliance Formation in Regional Space: Shifting the Battlefront Between Competing Hegemonial Powers","authors":"Kai A. Konrad, Florian Morath","doi":"10.1177/00220027251359720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251359720","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the history of military alliances during and after the Cold War, we study the sequential expansion of the hegemonial alliances of two great powers. Geography matters for the allocation of the collateral damage of a future military conflict. Current frontline countries bear a major burden. They would prefer to pass this collateral damage on to new members. This motive can drive expansion, which comes to an end only when all remaining non-affiliated countries have been absorbed by one of the two alliances. Those countries are willing to make concessions as part of the accession negotiations, and the overall value of the concessions can reach multiples of the actual collateral damage of military conflict. As a result, alliance expansion may continue beyond what would be optimal from a security perspective.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"175 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Power, Parity, and Place: Why Forgetting the Loss-of-Strength Gradient Misses the Relative Power Relationship 权力、奇偶性和位置：为什么忘记了力量丧失梯度而忽略了相对权力关系
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251362147
M. Patrick Hulme, Erik Gartzke, Alex Braithwaite, Lauren Gilbert
{"title":"Power, Parity, and Place: Why Forgetting the Loss-of-Strength Gradient Misses the Relative Power Relationship","authors":"M. Patrick Hulme, Erik Gartzke, Alex Braithwaite, Lauren Gilbert","doi":"10.1177/00220027251362147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251362147","url":null,"abstract":"Students of international relations continue to debate the role of power as a cause of conflict. In particular, there exists no consensus about whether power parity or preponderance is more likely to trigger militarized disputes. Generally overlooked in this and related controversies is the question of <jats:italic>where</jats:italic> power is actually exercised. It is widely accepted that a state’s power declines with distance. This “loss-of-strength gradient” in turn must imply that the relative power of any combination of countries is not a constant, but rather varies spatially at different locations around the globe. Implementing this simple but as yet undocumented insight to the debate over the effects of relative power, we show that “proximate power”—i.e., power adjusted for the loss-of-strength imposed by distance—reveals a close relationship between parity and conflict onset. The finding conforms with the expectations of modern bargaining approaches to war, which emphasize the role uncertainty plays in precipitating military contests.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
I Still Haven’t Found what I’m Looking for: Predicting Security-Related Incidents and Conflict Fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia Data 我还没有找到我要找的：用谷歌趋势和维基百科数据预测安全相关事件和冲突死亡
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251362832
Christian Oswald
{"title":"I Still Haven’t Found what I’m Looking for: Predicting Security-Related Incidents and Conflict Fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia Data","authors":"Christian Oswald","doi":"10.1177/00220027251362832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251362832","url":null,"abstract":"Conflict forecasting has seen two recent developments: a shift to predicting continuous variables and a debate about the value of <jats:italic>structural</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>procedural</jats:italic> variables. This paper contributes to these efforts and proposes the category of <jats:italic>salience</jats:italic> variables in the form of Google Trends and Wikipedia data. Internet searches can be precursors of conflict intensity as a result of for example an increase in protests, violent behavior, or public announcements. Data are readily and openly available, updated in real time, and provide global coverage which makes it ideal for near-real time forecasting. Prediction targets are the number of security-related incidents and battle-related, non-state, and civilian casualties. I demonstrate the value of <jats:italic>salience</jats:italic> variables using various out-of-sample windows and performance metrics on the country- and province-month level. I find evidence that <jats:italic>salience</jats:italic> variables have considerable predictive power, outperform other commonly used variables, and are thus a valuable addition to the conflict forecasting toolkit.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"285 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144748212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Moral Hazard or State Capacity? U.S. Military Assistance and Political Violence in Pakistan 道德风险还是国家能力？美国在巴基斯坦的军事援助和政治暴力
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251361656
Syeda ShahBano Ijaz
{"title":"Moral Hazard or State Capacity? U.S. Military Assistance and Political Violence in Pakistan","authors":"Syeda ShahBano Ijaz","doi":"10.1177/00220027251361656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251361656","url":null,"abstract":"Does U.S. military assistance affect domestic patterns of political violence? Military aid can improve the recipient country’s military capacity, but also create an incentive for prolonging conflict to secure future assistance. This moral hazard can manifest by geographically displacing conflict away from military strongholds while demonstrating an aggregate country-wide decrease in levels of violence. I analyze U.S. military assistance to Pakistan and find that aid can decrease the aggregate level of political violence in the short run. However, this short-run decrease is accompanied by a displacement of violence away from military headquarters. The discontinuity created by the sudden withdrawal of U.S. military assistance after Pakistan’s nuclear program, followed by its resumption post-9/11, lends causal purchase to my results, as does the historical location of military headquarters that were established by colonizers and have persisted in post-independence Pakistan.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"214 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144715294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic Theory of Alliances: Sixty Years Later 联盟的经济理论：六十年后
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251359626
Todd Sandler, Justin George
{"title":"Economic Theory of Alliances: Sixty Years Later","authors":"Todd Sandler, Justin George","doi":"10.1177/00220027251359626","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251359626","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this retrospective of the economic theory of alliances is to characterize three basic paradigms: purely public deterrence, spatial connectivity, and joint products. For each model, allies’ military expenditure (ME) responds differently to the aggregate ME of the other allies, known as defense spillins, thereby resulting in diverse burden sharing, allocative implications, membership composition, and institutional recommendations. The underlying theoretical models determine reduced-form equations for allies’ interdependent defense demands. We examine how changes in strategic doctrines, weapons technology, enemy threats, and membership composition affected NATO burden sharing and its allocative efficiency over time. Generally, changes that increase the share of excludable defense benefits possess a better prognosis for burden sharing and allocative efficiency. Principles and insights from the economic theory of alliances are related to defense demands at the operational level and for non-NATO alliances.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144629814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Institutionalized but Under Implemented: Factors Affecting Women’s Inclusion in Peace Negotiations Between 1975 and 2020 制度化但执行不力：1975年至2020年期间影响妇女参与和平谈判的因素
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251355747
Miriam J. Anderson, Brian R. Urlacher, Liam Swiss
{"title":"Institutionalized but Under Implemented: Factors Affecting Women’s Inclusion in Peace Negotiations Between 1975 and 2020","authors":"Miriam J. Anderson, Brian R. Urlacher, Liam Swiss","doi":"10.1177/00220027251355747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251355747","url":null,"abstract":"The Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda has achieved global prominence. Yet, women’s participation in peace negotiations remains rare, and little is known about which factors facilitate their inclusion. Quantitative scholarship has been hampered by incomplete data, drawing almost exclusively from prominent negotiations where agreements were reached. To address this shortcoming, we introduce a novel dataset comprising 267 dyadic negotiations between 1975 and 2020. We find two distinct pathways to women’s representation. First, representation in government and rebel negotiating delegations is linked to higher rates of women’s participation in rebel group leadership, higher levels of feminist mobilization, and the presence of a WPS National Action Plan. Second, representation in civil society delegations correlates to international mediation and higher levels of women’s representation in parliament. These findings suggest that the norm of women’s inclusion continues to face barriers that can be overcome by a particular combination of actors and domestic commitments.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144640045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Long Shadow of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Nonstate Actor Violence COVID-19封锁对非国家行为者暴力的长期影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353078
Dawn Brancati
{"title":"The Long Shadow of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Nonstate Actor Violence","authors":"Dawn Brancati","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353078","url":null,"abstract":"Early studies of the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on nonstate actor violence presented competing hypotheses and yielded mixed results. Economic arguments primarily claimed that lockdowns would increase violence and implied that their effects would last after lockdowns were lifted. Conversely, logistical arguments claimed that lockdowns would decrease violence and that their effects would endure only as long as lockdowns were in place. Using new, more precise, and comprehensive data and measures, this study directly compares these competing arguments globally. The study finds that both economic and logistical factors affected violence and that violence was lower overall in the short and long term. Logistical factors potentially outweighed economic ones due to the inability of nonstate actors to capitalize fully on the negative economic effects of lockdowns when population movements were disrupted. The study also disaggregates the economic effects of lockdowns, finding the strongest support for state capacity-based arguments.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144565720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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