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Just Patronage? Familiarity and the Diplomatic Value of Non-Career Ambassadors 只是赞助人？非职业大使的熟悉度与外交价值
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198518
Michael A. Goldfien
{"title":"Just Patronage? Familiarity and the Diplomatic Value of Non-Career Ambassadors","authors":"Michael A. Goldfien","doi":"10.1177/00220027231198518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231198518","url":null,"abstract":"Career diplomats have expertise. Why, then, do U.S. presidents appoint relative novices to key diplomatic posts? Conventional wisdom points to patronage. Yet this explanation overlooks the benefits of a diplomat’s familiarity with political superiors. Inherent in delegated diplomacy is uncertainty over diplomats' ability to “deliver” on understandings reached at the negotiating table. Non-career diplomats often speak more credibly for political superiors, creating an incentive for foreign counterparts to engage in diplomacy. I theorize a tradeoff between familiarity and expertise to generate empirically testable prediction. Counterintuitively, I expect that presidents often sacrifice professional expertise to delegate important diplomatic assignments to relative amateurs, even accounting for the patronage value of the post. I find empirical support for the argument using a novel dataset on U.S. ambassadorial appointments from the Reagan through Trump administrations.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49211862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Interstate Resource Conflicts: A Network-Centric Resource Access Security Perspective 州际资源冲突:以网络为中心的资源访问安全视角
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231181051
L. Bareis
{"title":"Interstate Resource Conflicts: A Network-Centric Resource Access Security Perspective","authors":"L. Bareis","doi":"10.1177/00220027231181051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231181051","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces the theoretical concept of perceived resource access security in order to assess the link between natural resource scarcity and interstate conflict. It develops the hypothesis that resource access through international trade is an important determinant for conflict behaviour of states arising from resource concerns, implying a shift in focus away from endowments and towards competition for access. The main analysis is conducted in the form of a unit fixed effects logistic regression covering country-dyads of the period 1962–2010 with military interstate dispute (MID) initiation as dependent variable. The empirical findings consistently demonstrate that a diversified position in resource supply networks mitigates the conflict propensity of states characterized by outside dependence for access to natural resources, and thereby help to determine conditions under which trade reduces conflict.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47066457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Creativity Training on Inter-Group Conflict-Related Emotions 创造力训练对群体冲突相关情绪的影响
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198517
Nardine Fahoum, H. Pick, S. Shamay-Tsoory
{"title":"The Impact of Creativity Training on Inter-Group Conflict-Related Emotions","authors":"Nardine Fahoum, H. Pick, S. Shamay-Tsoory","doi":"10.1177/00220027231198517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231198517","url":null,"abstract":"Negative emotions toward outgroup members are primary factors in maintaining and escalating inter-group conflicts. Building on studies showing that highly creative individuals exhibit fewer negative emotions toward outgroup members, we examined whether training creativity by means of divergent thinking tasks would reduce negative emotions toward outgroup members in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Experiment 1 examined the effectiveness of a 2-week creativity training program that entailed executing divergent thinking tasks. The results show that individuals trained to think creatively exhibited fewer negative emotions toward the outgroup compared to the control group. Experiment 2 examined the effects of a short creativity intervention and found that the intensity of negative emotions did not change immediately after carrying out divergent thinking tasks. These findings suggest that extended, but not short, creativity intervention may regulate negative emotions toward outgroup members, indicating that emotional change in the context of conflicts is possible only after repeated creativity training.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42690886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Preferences for Intergroup Assistance in Conflicts Facing Joint External Threats: Lessons From COVID-19 in Israel 在面临共同外部威胁的冲突中，公众对团体间援助的偏好：以色列新冠肺炎的教训
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198519
Liran Harsgor, Alon Yakter
{"title":"Public Preferences for Intergroup Assistance in Conflicts Facing Joint External Threats: Lessons From COVID-19 in Israel","authors":"Liran Harsgor, Alon Yakter","doi":"10.1177/00220027231198519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231198519","url":null,"abstract":"With global changes, large-scale natural hazards are more frequent and intense, posing a particular challenge for groups in conflict. Do these shared external threats influence group willingness to cooperate and assist the adversary, and how? The literature suggests inconsistent expectations, from increased intergroup cooperation, to exacerbated animosity, to no discernable impact. We explore this question in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a joint exogenous threat for both sides. Using multiple surveys and a conjoint experiment, we examine whether and how COVID-19 threat perceptions affected Jewish-Israeli preferences for collaborating with the Palestinians against the pandemic, including a novel exploration of concrete policy priorities. We find that greater COVID-19 threat perceptions have little effect on collaborative policy preferences, corroborating politics-as-usual arguments: support for out-group assistance, cooperation, and cost-sharing is polarized by ideological orientation. Our findings outline both constraints and opportunities for intergroup collaboration policies in conflicts facing joint outside challenges.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44171571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Following Orders or Following the Oath? Assessing Democratic Norm Endorsement Among Service Academy Cadets 遵从命令还是遵从誓言?军校学员对民主规范支持的评估
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195385
Risa A. Brooks, Michael A. Robinson, Heidi A. Urben
{"title":"Following Orders or Following the Oath? Assessing Democratic Norm Endorsement Among Service Academy Cadets","authors":"Risa A. Brooks, Michael A. Robinson, Heidi A. Urben","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195385","url":null,"abstract":"How strongly embraced within the officer corps is the commitment to supporting and defending the Constitution and to the ethic of nonpartisanship? This article answers that question through a 2019/2020 survey of 1,470 service academy students, including with a list experiment. The results show that cadets engage in what we term “selective endorsement” of norms, whereby they endorse norms as long as they are not in tension with their partisan identities. In particular, the list experiment reveals that when provided an opportunity to obscure their preferences, many cadets supported following civilian orders, even those at odds with democratic traditions—and that partisan dynamics may play a role in determining how they respond. The article has important implications for scholarly research on norm robustness and socialization, as well as practical consequences for civil-military relations in light of ongoing challenges to democracy in the United States today.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42142826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bureaucracy at the Border: The Fragmentation of United States Foreign Aid 边境官僚主义：美国对外援助的碎片化
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231198176
Shannon P. Carcelli
{"title":"Bureaucracy at the Border: The Fragmentation of United States Foreign Aid","authors":"Shannon P. Carcelli","doi":"10.1177/00220027231198176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231198176","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign policy scholars often assume that leaders pursue a national interest. However, states often spread their foreign policy authority thinly across bureaucracies and programs with overlapping or conflicting interests. This is especially pronounced in foreign aid, which serves a clear foreign policy purpose but is often mired in bureaucracy. Why is foreign aid often so fragmented? Focusing on the United States, I explain foreign aid fragmentation as a byproduct of domestic politics. When moderate legislators are ideologically diffuse, leadership must persuade them to support a foreign aid agenda by offering pet projects. This increases aid’s fragmentation. In contrast, when moderates are relatively homogeneous, leaders can gather support through more traditional compromise, decreasing the need for fragmented pet projects. I test this theory using a mixed-methods approach, employing a novel agency-level dataset of US foreign aid appropriations and a case study of a 1992 act delivering aid to the former Soviet Union.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47165201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Provocation, Bargaining, and War 挑衅、讨价还价和战争
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195065
Hyun-Binn Cho, Kyle Haynes, Brandon K. Yoder
{"title":"Provocation, Bargaining, and War","authors":"Hyun-Binn Cho, Kyle Haynes, Brandon K. Yoder","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195065","url":null,"abstract":"The rationalist bargaining literature explains how public statements and military mobilizations can signal resolve. But recent political psychology scholarship shows how such actions can “provoke” targets, increasing their resolve by arousing emotions among their leaders and public. While rationalist models have largely omitted provocation, psychological approaches have neglected its strategic consequences. We model provocation in bargaining, assuming that a challenger’s signals endogenously increase the target’s resolve. Our model shows that introducing provocation can make signals of resolve more credible precisely because their provocative effects make them more costly to send. Moreover, against the prevailing intuition that provocation uniformly promotes conflict, the information from these signals can mitigate their provocative effects and elicit more generous offers than not signaling. Thus, in contrast to psychological accounts, we show that taking provocative actions can be rational and necessary for reaching peaceful bargains. We illustrate these findings with the 1911 Agadir Crisis.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48390040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior 生存的遗产：历史暴力与少数民族行为
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195384
Amiad Haran Diman, D. Miodownik
{"title":"Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior","authors":"Amiad Haran Diman, D. Miodownik","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195384","url":null,"abstract":"How is the electoral behavior of minorities shaped by past violence? Recent studies found that displacement increases hostility between perpetrators and displaced individuals, but there has been paltry research on members of surviving communities. We argue that the latter exhibit the opposite pattern because of their different condition. Violence will cause cross-generational vulnerability, fear and risk-aversion—leading the surviving communities to seek protection and avoid conflict by signalling loyalty and rejecting nationalist movements. In their situation as an excluded minority in the perpetrators’ state, they will be more likely to vote for out-group parties. Exploiting exogenous battlefield dynamics that created inter-regional variation in the Palestinian exodus (1947–1949), microlevel measurements that capture the damage of violence, and an original longitudinal data set, we show that Palestinian villages in Israel more severely impacted by the 1948 war have a much higher vote share to Jewish parties even 70 years later. Survey evidence further supports our theory, revealing that this pattern exists only for members of the surviving communities, and not among displaced individuals. The findings shed new light on the complex social relations that guide political decision-making in post-war settings and divided societies that suffer from protracted conflicts.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49326398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rainy Friday: Religious Participation and Protests 阴雨的星期五:宗教参与和抗议
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195382
Kyosuke Kikuta
{"title":"Rainy Friday: Religious Participation and Protests","authors":"Kyosuke Kikuta","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195382","url":null,"abstract":"What are the effects of religious participation on collective action such as protests? Until recently, conflict scholars have focused on the macro-level characteristics of religion, while assuming, but rarely analyzing, individual-level mechanisms. I fill in this gap by incorporating insights from the field of American Politics, which has long emphasized the roles of individual-level mechanisms such as attendance at religious gatherings. I hypothesize that attendance at religious gatherings can address problems of collective action and thus lead to protests. I test these hypotheses by exploiting exogenous variation in the attendance at Islamic religious gatherings: rain on the day of Friday Prayer. I apply the design both to macro-level event data and an individual-level survey. The analyses indicate that rainy Fridays decrease the frequency of Muslim religious attendance and lower the likelihood of Muslim protests in Africa. These results imply a core role of communal gatherings in religious mobilization.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42922354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Domestic Political Unrest and Sovereign Bond Ratings in the Developing World 发展中国家国内政治动荡与主权债券评级
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195383
G. Biglaiser, Hoon Lee, Ronald J. McGauvran
{"title":"Domestic Political Unrest and Sovereign Bond Ratings in the Developing World","authors":"G. Biglaiser, Hoon Lee, Ronald J. McGauvran","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195383","url":null,"abstract":"This paper integrates the credit rating agency and domestic conflict literatures, investigating the effects of non-violent and violent domestic political unrest on sovereign bond ratings. Using up to 60 developing countries and 94 unrest cases from 1996-2018, we find that while countries under domestic unrest often receive bond downgrades, non-violent unrest appears not to be responsible. Further, we use mediation analysis and show that respect for the rule of law and economic stability seem to mediate the relationship between violent and non-violent unrest and bond ratings. Given developing countries' need to issue debt, and the critical role credit rating agencies play in rating sovereign bonds, our work suggests that countries should seek to avoid violent domestic political unrest if for no other reason than to acquire lower-cost capital.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46014035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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