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Journal of Conflict Resolution最新文献

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Provocation, Bargaining, and War 挑衅、讨价还价和战争
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195065
Hyun-Binn Cho, Kyle Haynes, Brandon K. Yoder
{"title":"Provocation, Bargaining, and War","authors":"Hyun-Binn Cho, Kyle Haynes, Brandon K. Yoder","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195065","url":null,"abstract":"The rationalist bargaining literature explains how public statements and military mobilizations can signal resolve. But recent political psychology scholarship shows how such actions can “provoke” targets, increasing their resolve by arousing emotions among their leaders and public. While rationalist models have largely omitted provocation, psychological approaches have neglected its strategic consequences. We model provocation in bargaining, assuming that a challenger’s signals endogenously increase the target’s resolve. Our model shows that introducing provocation can make signals of resolve more credible precisely because their provocative effects make them more costly to send. Moreover, against the prevailing intuition that provocation uniformly promotes conflict, the information from these signals can mitigate their provocative effects and elicit more generous offers than not signaling. Thus, in contrast to psychological accounts, we show that taking provocative actions can be rational and necessary for reaching peaceful bargains. We illustrate these findings with the 1911 Agadir Crisis.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48390040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior 生存的遗产：历史暴力与少数民族行为
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195384
Amiad Haran Diman, D. Miodownik
{"title":"Legacies of Survival: Historical Violence and Ethnic Minority Behavior","authors":"Amiad Haran Diman, D. Miodownik","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195384","url":null,"abstract":"How is the electoral behavior of minorities shaped by past violence? Recent studies found that displacement increases hostility between perpetrators and displaced individuals, but there has been paltry research on members of surviving communities. We argue that the latter exhibit the opposite pattern because of their different condition. Violence will cause cross-generational vulnerability, fear and risk-aversion—leading the surviving communities to seek protection and avoid conflict by signalling loyalty and rejecting nationalist movements. In their situation as an excluded minority in the perpetrators’ state, they will be more likely to vote for out-group parties. Exploiting exogenous battlefield dynamics that created inter-regional variation in the Palestinian exodus (1947–1949), microlevel measurements that capture the damage of violence, and an original longitudinal data set, we show that Palestinian villages in Israel more severely impacted by the 1948 war have a much higher vote share to Jewish parties even 70 years later. Survey evidence further supports our theory, revealing that this pattern exists only for members of the surviving communities, and not among displaced individuals. The findings shed new light on the complex social relations that guide political decision-making in post-war settings and divided societies that suffer from protracted conflicts.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49326398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rainy Friday: Religious Participation and Protests 阴雨的星期五:宗教参与和抗议
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195382
Kyosuke Kikuta
{"title":"Rainy Friday: Religious Participation and Protests","authors":"Kyosuke Kikuta","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195382","url":null,"abstract":"What are the effects of religious participation on collective action such as protests? Until recently, conflict scholars have focused on the macro-level characteristics of religion, while assuming, but rarely analyzing, individual-level mechanisms. I fill in this gap by incorporating insights from the field of American Politics, which has long emphasized the roles of individual-level mechanisms such as attendance at religious gatherings. I hypothesize that attendance at religious gatherings can address problems of collective action and thus lead to protests. I test these hypotheses by exploiting exogenous variation in the attendance at Islamic religious gatherings: rain on the day of Friday Prayer. I apply the design both to macro-level event data and an individual-level survey. The analyses indicate that rainy Fridays decrease the frequency of Muslim religious attendance and lower the likelihood of Muslim protests in Africa. These results imply a core role of communal gatherings in religious mobilization.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42922354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Domestic Political Unrest and Sovereign Bond Ratings in the Developing World 发展中国家国内政治动荡与主权债券评级
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-12 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195383
G. Biglaiser, Hoon Lee, Ronald J. McGauvran
{"title":"Domestic Political Unrest and Sovereign Bond Ratings in the Developing World","authors":"G. Biglaiser, Hoon Lee, Ronald J. McGauvran","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195383","url":null,"abstract":"This paper integrates the credit rating agency and domestic conflict literatures, investigating the effects of non-violent and violent domestic political unrest on sovereign bond ratings. Using up to 60 developing countries and 94 unrest cases from 1996-2018, we find that while countries under domestic unrest often receive bond downgrades, non-violent unrest appears not to be responsible. Further, we use mediation analysis and show that respect for the rule of law and economic stability seem to mediate the relationship between violent and non-violent unrest and bond ratings. Given developing countries' need to issue debt, and the critical role credit rating agencies play in rating sovereign bonds, our work suggests that countries should seek to avoid violent domestic political unrest if for no other reason than to acquire lower-cost capital.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46014035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in Perceptions of Border Security Influence Desired Levels of Immigration 边境安全观念的变化影响期望的移民水平
1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231195066
Ryan C. Briggs, Omer Solodoch
{"title":"Changes in Perceptions of Border Security Influence Desired Levels of Immigration","authors":"Ryan C. Briggs, Omer Solodoch","doi":"10.1177/00220027231195066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231195066","url":null,"abstract":"Security concerns about immigration are on the rise. Many countries respond by fortifying their borders. Yet little is known about the influence of border security measures on perceived threat from immigration. Borders might facilitate group identities and spread fear of outsiders. In contrast, they might enhance citizens’ sense of security and control over immigration. We test these claims using survey experiments run on a quota sample of over 1000 Americans. The findings show that allocating more government resources to border security increases desired levels of immigration. This effect is likely driven by a sense of control over immigration, induced by border security measures even when the number or characteristics of immigrants remain unchanged. Our findings suggest that border controls, which are widely considered as symbols of closure and isolation, can increase public support for immigration.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135396966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Type of Violence and Ingroup Identity: Evidence From the Spanish Civil War 暴力类型与内部群体认同:来自西班牙内战的证据
1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231190099
Sergi Martínez
{"title":"Type of Violence and Ingroup Identity: Evidence From the Spanish Civil War","authors":"Sergi Martínez","doi":"10.1177/00220027231190099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231190099","url":null,"abstract":"Wartime violence and authoritarian repression against civilians take various forms. Past research has explored the causes and consequences of violence, but no previous work simultaneously assessed the long-term effects of different types of violence on political identities. This paper contends that indiscriminate attacks can reinforce ingroup identity, whereas the role of civilian agency in selective violence may have a detrimental impact. Equipped with original data capturing municipality-level exposure to both selective and indiscriminate violence during the Spanish civil war (1936–1939) in Biscay (Basque Country), this study examines its legacy on voting behavior (1983–2015). Results indicate that fascist airstrikes increased Basque nationalism while selective violence diminished the popularity of Basque parties. Individual and community-level evidence suggests that airstrikes fostered the intergenerational transmission of political attitudes. Violence can boost national identities, but it can also erode them: it depends on the type.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135904262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Economic Coercion Trilemma 经济胁迫三难困境
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231191530
Michael-David Mangini
{"title":"The Economic Coercion Trilemma","authors":"Michael-David Mangini","doi":"10.1177/00220027231191530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231191530","url":null,"abstract":"States often use market access as a bargaining chip in international politics. A state that requires simultaneous compliance in multiple issue areas before granting market access maximizes incentives to comply but also makes them brittle – any targeted states that cannot comply in one issue area have no incentive to comply in any. More generally, programs of economic coercion can achieve at most two of the following three objectives: 1) secure a broad coalition of domestic political support, 2) the association of meaningful trade value with each policy issue, and 3) assurance that enforcing one political issue will not reduce the target’s incentives to comply with conditionality on others. Characteristics of the program’s domestic constituency, of the issues themselves, and of the international economy are key determinants of how the state prioritizes the three objectives. The trilemma explains the number and types of issues that can be linked to economic value.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41589592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Turning the Tables: Military Intervention and the Onset of Negotiations in Civil War 翻盘：军事干预与内战谈判的开始
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231190915
R. Dudley
{"title":"Turning the Tables: Military Intervention and the Onset of Negotiations in Civil War","authors":"R. Dudley","doi":"10.1177/00220027231190915","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231190915","url":null,"abstract":"When do negotiations occur in civil war? How does military intervention alter this process? While the existing literature presents models of the onset of negotiations – both mediated and unassisted – they are incomplete if they do not consider third-party states involved in the conflict prior to negotiations. I argue that military intervention impacts negotiation onset by adjusting barriers to negotiation through three pathways: the likelihood of military victory, the risk of signaling weakness, and the presence of additional veto players. I examine these mechanisms using logistic random effects models on a dataset of African civil wars. An extension of the argument addresses how expectations of intervention shape conflict behavior. Rebel-supporting interventions, interventions with independent interests, and asymmetric interventions lead to an increase in the likelihood of negotiations occurring. Models controlling for expectations of intervention also suggest that third parties can impact belligerents’ behavior through both expectations and follow-through.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45386670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Past and Present Group Exclusion and Conflict: Group Marginalization, Opportunity, and Islamic State Foreign Fighter Mobilization 过去和现在的群体排斥和冲突:群体边缘化、机会和伊斯兰国外国战斗人员动员
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231190914
Jared F. Edgerton
{"title":"Past and Present Group Exclusion and Conflict: Group Marginalization, Opportunity, and Islamic State Foreign Fighter Mobilization","authors":"Jared F. Edgerton","doi":"10.1177/00220027231190914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231190914","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers and policymakers have increasingly recognized foreign fighter mobilization as a national security threat to foreign states and domestic populations. Yet, scholars remain divided on the motivations of foreign combatants, arguing that fighters may be motivated by grievances, opportunity, or material incentives. The motivations of foreign fighters may be especially complex, as they are engaging in a conflict outside of their state. I analyze how historical and present-day group exclusionary policies and opportunity shape mobilization. To do so, I leverage novel data consisting of individual fighter data of Islamic State volunteers fighting in Iraq and Syria. Consistent with my theoretical framework, I find that a higher rate of Islamic State fighters come from areas where Sunni Muslims were denied access to political power and have greater state capacity.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46749101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Deplatforming Work? 去平台化有效吗？
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1177/00220027231188909
Danny Klinenberg
{"title":"Does Deplatforming Work?","authors":"Danny Klinenberg","doi":"10.1177/00220027231188909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027231188909","url":null,"abstract":"Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize. While governments deliberate on how to regulate, some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content —deplatforming. I estimate the effects of deplatforming on revenue and viewership, using variation in the timing of removals across two video-streaming companies — YouTube, and its far-right competitor, Bitchute. Being deplatformed on Youtube results in a 30% increase in weekly Bitcoin revenue and a 50% increase in viewership on Bitchute. This increase in Bitchute activity is less than that on YouTube, meaning that deplatforming works in decreasing a content creator’s overall views and revenue.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46238175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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