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Journal of Conflict Resolution最新文献

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When Fairness is Unfair: Norm Abandonment in Bargaining and Its Implications for Peace Negotiations 当公平是不公平的：讨价还价中的规范放弃及其对和平谈判的启示
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251356643
Vinh Pham, Linjia Jiang, Yoshio Kamijo
{"title":"When Fairness is Unfair: Norm Abandonment in Bargaining and Its Implications for Peace Negotiations","authors":"Vinh Pham, Linjia Jiang, Yoshio Kamijo","doi":"10.1177/00220027251356643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251356643","url":null,"abstract":"Fairness perceptions can significantly impact the instigation and resolution of conflicts. To examine how fairness norms shape agreements, we conduct an experiment, where participants first select a preferred rule between equal division, equal gain, and proportional division. When paired with another sharing the same norm, participants decide whether to adhere to the projected division or negotiate a different outcome. Experimental results reveal that participants renege on the agreement more frequently when allocations are perceived as unfair to the self: high contributors in equal division and low contributors in proportional division. Furthermore, attachment to the initial norm is sturdiest for strict equality and weakest for proportionality. Equal gain, coinciding with the Nash bargaining solution, is the most favored at both preselection and negotiation outcomes. We discuss several applications of our findings in resolving international conflicts.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Living in Fear? Political Violence and Authoritarian Attitudes Among Politicians in South Africa 生活在恐惧中？南非政治家中的政治暴力和专制态度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353717
Sarah Lockwood, Philip Martin
{"title":"Living in Fear? Political Violence and Authoritarian Attitudes Among Politicians in South Africa","authors":"Sarah Lockwood, Philip Martin","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353717","url":null,"abstract":"Do elected representatives become more authoritarian when violence against politicians is made salient? Many states are beset by politician-directed violence, but we know little about the consequences of such violence for democratic politics. In this paper we use a pre-registered survey experiment to investigate whether raising the salience of violence against politicians influences authoritarian attitudes among local councillors in South Africa. We find that councillors prompted to think about politician-directed violence are significantly more likely to adopt authoritarian attitudes. We also find strong heterogeneous treatment effects by political party, with the strongest effects among opposition party members. Unlike members of the nationally dominant African National Congress (ANC), opposition councillors appear to interpret politician-directed violence as a signal of systemic corruption, leading them to prioritize re-establishing order. Our findings have important implications for understanding the effects of violence on political elites and the determinants of authoritarianism.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Signaling Strength Through Power Sharing 通过功率共享的信令强度
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251355757
Jacque Gao, Marton Szabo
{"title":"Signaling Strength Through Power Sharing","authors":"Jacque Gao, Marton Szabo","doi":"10.1177/00220027251355757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251355757","url":null,"abstract":"This article develops a new theory of how a strong target regime can (partially) deter a sender from imposing sanctions over major issues. We develop a formal theoretic framework to show that, following a sender’s sanction threat, a strong target regime can signal its strength by deliberately weakening itself through always sharing power with a domestic opposition, while a weak target regime mixes between sharing and not sharing power with the opposition. The strategy offers the sender a better assessment of a target’s strength, enabling it to adjust its sanction policy accordingly and avoid the costs of a potentially ineffective sanction over a strong target regime. As a result, a strong target regime will be sanctioned with a lower probability than a weak one.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Erratum to “Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty” “拆解叛逃：异议运动策略与安全部队不忠”的勘误
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251355698
{"title":"Erratum to “Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty”","authors":"","doi":"10.1177/00220027251355698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251355698","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"289 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144796942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Insurgency, Border Contiguity, and Social Conflict in Neighbor Countries 邻国的叛乱、边境邻近和社会冲突
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251353772
Kaderi Bukari, Ore Koren
{"title":"Insurgency, Border Contiguity, and Social Conflict in Neighbor Countries","authors":"Kaderi Bukari, Ore Koren","doi":"10.1177/00220027251353772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251353772","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates how an insurgency in one state can intensify social conflict in a bordering state, focusing on the 2015 Burkina Faso insurgency and its impacts on northern Ghana. Building on past research, we theorize four pathways that can link insurgency to social conflict across the border. We use a mixed-methods approach, combining synthetic control models, fixed-effects panel data analyses, and extensive fieldwork across multiple communities, and find clear support for two pathways: insurgents using Ghana as a place for obtaining resources and diverted security forces creating vacuums exploited by bandits. The findings show that research and policy should consider more the interaction across multiple types of violence and varied geopolitical spaces in other susceptible world regions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144334899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War: The Role of Spatial Configuration of Territorial Control 自然灾害对持续内战的影响：国土控制空间格局的作用
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251346912
Wangyin Zhao
{"title":"The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Ongoing Civil War: The Role of Spatial Configuration of Territorial Control","authors":"Wangyin Zhao","doi":"10.1177/00220027251346912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251346912","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how natural disasters impact ongoing civil wars is increasingly important as more extreme weather events are expected due to climate change. Existing literature suggests that there is substantial unexplained variation in the consequences of natural disasters for conflict. I present a theoretical model, which provides insights into how the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control can moderate the impact of natural disasters on conflict dynamics. Investigating these insights empirically, I introduce a new measure of natural disasters based on precipitation data, which improves geographical precision and mitigates endogeneity concerns in existing literature. Using the ongoing civil war between the New People’s Army (NPA) and the Philippine government as a testing ground, results show that the impact of natural disasters on both shifts in territorial control and battle-related violence varies by the pre-disaster spatial configuration of territorial control.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144236920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Religiosity, Political Tolerance, and Willingness to Reconcile in Post-conflict Contexts: Evidence From Colombia 冲突后背景下的宗教信仰、政治宽容和和解意愿：来自哥伦比亚的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251331887
Juan Federico Pino Uribe, Johanna Amaya-Panche, Nathalie Méndez Méndez, Andrés Casas Casas
{"title":"Religiosity, Political Tolerance, and Willingness to Reconcile in Post-conflict Contexts: Evidence From Colombia","authors":"Juan Federico Pino Uribe, Johanna Amaya-Panche, Nathalie Méndez Méndez, Andrés Casas Casas","doi":"10.1177/00220027251331887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251331887","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the role of religiosity in shaping people’s willingness to reconcile with ex-combatants in post-conflict societies, using Colombia as a case study. Drawing on LAPOP survey data from 2014 to 2018, the study employs linear and logistic regression models to reveal that individuals tend to be less willing to reconcile when they have high levels of religiosity (LAPOP 2004–2021). However, this relation can be mitigated by an individual’s level of political tolerance, which fosters greater openness to support reconciliation despite strong religious convictions.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty 分解叛逃：异议运动策略和安全部队的不忠
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251348389
Marianne Dahl, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, Scott Gates
{"title":"Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty","authors":"Marianne Dahl, Mauricio Rivera Celestino, Scott Gates","doi":"10.1177/00220027251348389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251348389","url":null,"abstract":"Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and violent strategies impose distinct costs on security forces—related to repression, fighting, and exit—which shape the likelihood of different forms of disloyalty. Our findings reveal that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to trigger large-scale loyalty shifts, but their effects are confined to specific types of disloyalty. Specifically, nonviolent strategies increase the likelihood of shirking, vocal support for opposition campaigns or criticism of the regime, and withdrawal of regime support. By contrast, desertion and side-switching are more likely during violent campaigns.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"331 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ethnic Accommodation and the Backlash From Dominant Groups 民族和解与优势群体的反弹
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251343836
Andreas Juon
{"title":"Ethnic Accommodation and the Backlash From Dominant Groups","authors":"Andreas Juon","doi":"10.1177/00220027251343836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251343836","url":null,"abstract":"When does the accommodation of subordinate ethnic groups generate a backlash from the politically dominant group? I argue that power-sharing, regional autonomy, and multiculturalism lend themselves to the articulation of grievances and fears among members of dominant groups, especially if they explicitly recognize subordinate groups’ collective identities. In turn, nationalist parties can exploit such sentiment to organize protests, incite violence, and increase their electoral prospects. To test these arguments, I combine new monthly data on ethnic accommodation in 125 multi-ethnic electoral regimes between 1990 and 2018 with information on dominant group mobilization in anti-government protests and communal violence. I find systematic increases in dominant group mobilization around times when group-based accommodation is first introduced or expanded. These results enhance our understanding of mass mobilization by dominant ethnic groups. Moreover, they point to concrete proposals to reap the benefits of ethnic accommodation while avoiding a potentially destabilizing backlash against it.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144133734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Knowing What We Don’t: The Fundamental Problem of Data Quality in Conflict Research—and Methodological Solutions 知道我们不知道什么：冲突研究中数据质量的基本问题和方法论解决方案
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1177/00220027251325877
Rachel Sweet
{"title":"Knowing What We Don’t: The Fundamental Problem of Data Quality in Conflict Research—and Methodological Solutions","authors":"Rachel Sweet","doi":"10.1177/00220027251325877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027251325877","url":null,"abstract":"Conflict researchers face an unresolved dilemma: the underlying data are often unreliable. When it comes to covert relationships, killings, and illicit markets that organized violence entails, there are simply more incentives to alter information than to tell it straight. How confident can scholars be that on-the-ground events, rather than strategic or omitted information, drive research findings? Despite the evident need for accurate views into clandestine processes, existing work rarely applies systematic checks to verify the seeming “facts” of conflict. This article proposes a methodological toolkit to fill this gap. A first step develops systematic checks to report numerical credibility scores of source quality and corresponding error estimates. A second leverages data of varied strengths for distinct purposes: high-quality sources to triangulate facts and low-quality data to discern strategic images and mis/disinformation. The article tests these standards against major datasets and integrates the protocols into an interactive Data Evaluation Dashboard available for scholarly and policy use.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144067143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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