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When Rapacity Pacifies: Natural Resource Booms, Economic Diversification, and Criminal Violence 当贪婪平息：自然资源繁荣、经济多样化和犯罪暴力
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-05-05 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261450142
Pablo Scuticchio
{"title":"When Rapacity Pacifies: Natural Resource Booms, Economic Diversification, and Criminal Violence","authors":"Pablo Scuticchio","doi":"10.1177/00220027261450142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261450142","url":null,"abstract":"Natural resource price shocks intensify competition for control of windfall sites. They also prompt criminal organizations to redeploy fighters toward those windfalls, thinning their presence in other resource regions that do not share the price surge. I test this in Mexico, focusing on drug cultivation and the extortion of mining operations. Exploiting exogenous variation in global gold prices (2001–2018) in a panel of 2,444 municipalities, I find that the gold boom led to a 15 percent decrease in homicides, a 19 percent drop in cartel-related executions, and a 19 percent reduction in active cartel cells in the average heroin-producing municipality. Conversely, when U.S.-bound heroin trafficking surged, violence in gold-mining areas fell. Together, the results reveal two linked mechanisms: rapacity in windfall zones and a peace dividend in resource areas bypassed by the boom. I further show that the decline is driven chiefly by reduced inter-cartel competition, with cartel–state clashes essentially unchanged.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"55 94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148286463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Peacekeepers Abroad: Analyzing the Subsequent Conflict Prospects for Troops Deploying Nations 海外维和人员：分析部队部署国随后的冲突前景
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261446608
Bulbul Ahmed
{"title":"Peacekeepers Abroad: Analyzing the Subsequent Conflict Prospects for Troops Deploying Nations","authors":"Bulbul Ahmed","doi":"10.1177/00220027261446608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261446608","url":null,"abstract":"Does contributing troops to UN peacekeeping reduce a state’s propensity for interstate conflict? While existing research examines peacekeeping’s effects on host countries, troop-contributing countries’ own conflict behavior remains understudied. I theorize two mechanisms: costly signaling that credibly communicates peaceful intent, and socialization through UN doctrine and multinational networks that institutionalizes restraint. Using country-year data from 1990 to 2014 and multiple measures of participation, the analysis includes controls for the security environment, including recent conflict involvement, territorial disputes, prior interstate conflict, and intrastate armed conflict. Across ordered logit, logit, and count models, supplemented by extensive robustness checks, matching, selection corrections, fixed effects, and dynamic specifications, greater peacekeeping engagement is consistently associated with lower hostility, lower initiation risk, and fewer disputes. These findings extend conventional wisdom by identifying peacekeeping as both a global public good and domestic risk-reduction strategy, redirecting institutional theory from hosts to senders and clarifying how international engagement reshapes state behavior.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148286464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unfulfilled Aspirations: Autonomy, Regional Boundaries, and Self-Determination Conflicts 未实现的愿望：自治、区域边界和自决冲突
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-25 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261444601
Andreas Juon
{"title":"Unfulfilled Aspirations: Autonomy, Regional Boundaries, and Self-Determination Conflicts","authors":"Andreas Juon","doi":"10.1177/00220027261444601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261444601","url":null,"abstract":"Administrative boundaries play a crucial but understudied role in managing separatist conflict in federal and decentralized states. I argue that closely aligning these boundaries with ethnic settlement patterns helps sustainably defuse separatist conflicts. When minorities control unified ethnic regions, autonomy enables them to pursue their policy goals, reducing grievances. Conversely, when they are fragmented across regions or remain minorities at the regional level, autonomy is more likely to violate their aspirations and fuel continued separatist mobilization. I test this argument using new spatial data on regional boundaries in 132 multi-ethnic countries (1946–2017). A difference-in-differences design exploiting within-group variation over time reveals that administrative boundaries critically shape separatist mobilization. The step-wise implications of my hypothesized mechanisms are reflected in analyses of intermediate outcomes and in influential case accounts. These findings underscore the importance of regional boundary design in managing ethnic conflict and offer insights for institutional responses to separatist pressures.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147743959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing the Firebreak: Experimental Evidence on Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in India and Pakistan 防火测试：印度和巴基斯坦低当量核武器和威慑的实验证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-17 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261441496
Lisa Langdon Koch, Kristyn L. Karl, Matthew S. Wells
{"title":"Testing the Firebreak: Experimental Evidence on Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in India and Pakistan","authors":"Lisa Langdon Koch, Kristyn L. Karl, Matthew S. Wells","doi":"10.1177/00220027261441496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261441496","url":null,"abstract":"A cross-national shift toward lower-yield nuclear weapons has generated renewed interest in the integrity of the firebreak: the conceptual barrier between conventional and nuclear warfare. We theorize that low-yield nuclear weapons alter nuclear nonuse mechanisms. They threaten to breach the firebreak by offering a more credible, but less costly, deterrent and undercut norms grounded in nuclear weapons’ effects. To test the integrity of the firebreak, we conduct simultaneous survey experiments investigating how Pakistani and Indian citizens consider low-yield nuclear weapons use in an escalating crisis. We find a low-yield nuclear weapons threat to be credible, but not necessarily stabilizing. Both publics in this rivalry exhibit substantial willingness not only to issue a nuclear response to a low-yield nuclear strike, but also to introduce nuclear weapons into conflict. However, neither universally seeks retribution. Vivid information about nuclear effects moderates retaliation preferences among citizens who strongly favor their co-nationals.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"280 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147708638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Introducing the COW Arms Technology Data, 1816–2023: Structure and Applications 介绍COW武器技术数据，1816-2023：结构与应用
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-11 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261440365
Jacob Gerner Hariri, Asger Mose Wingender
{"title":"Introducing the COW Arms Technology Data, 1816–2023: Structure and Applications","authors":"Jacob Gerner Hariri, Asger Mose Wingender","doi":"10.1177/00220027261440365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261440365","url":null,"abstract":"This article introduces a new global dataset tracking the adoption of 31 important arms technologies across all states from 1816 to 2023. Covering eight major categories – from small arms and artillery to combat helicopters and ballistic missiles – the dataset provides a comprehensive long-term view of the global evolution and diffusion of arms technology. We describe the conceptual foundations and coding procedures, as well as transformations of the final data relevant for scholars of international relations and comparative politics. We demonstrate the relevance of the data through three empirical applications: we show that arms technologies spread in ways consistent with the logic of the security dilemma; that technological superiority helps explain which states win wars, and that advanced arms help autocrats stay in power. These findings highlight the central role of arms technology in shaping both the global distribution of power and the durability of autocratic regimes.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147649117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the Historical Roots of Interstate Conflicts: Evidence From Folklore Motifs 国家间冲突的历史根源：来自民间传说母题的证据
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261441301
Marcello D’Amato, Francesco Flaviano Russo
{"title":"On the Historical Roots of Interstate Conflicts: Evidence From Folklore Motifs","authors":"Marcello D’Amato, Francesco Flaviano Russo","doi":"10.1177/00220027261441301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261441301","url":null,"abstract":"We show empirically that interstate conflicts are less likely among countries that share more of their oral tradition. Popular tales and narratives are related to expectations and beliefs about other parties’ behavior, and larger cultural similarities reduce negotiation failures between states. To validate this interpretation, we show that countries with more oral tradition in common are more likely to form military alliances, more likely to participate in the same international organizations, more likely to vote similarly in the UN general assembly, more likely to trade with each other and, in case a conflicts breaks out, more likely to terminate it with a negotiation.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"113 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147641396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Leader Similarity and International Sanctions 领导人相似性与国际制裁
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261436355
Jerg Gutmann, Pascal Langer, Matthias Neuenkirch
{"title":"Leader Similarity and International Sanctions","authors":"Jerg Gutmann, Pascal Langer, Matthias Neuenkirch","doi":"10.1177/00220027261436355","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261436355","url":null,"abstract":"It is well-established that political leaders matter for domestic outcomes, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is comparatively scarce. We ask whether the personal relationship between political leaders can change the propensity for nonviolent conflict between nation-states in the form of sanctions. Panel probit models with data from 1970 to 2004 are estimated to evaluate whether more similar leaders are less likely to sanction each other. Our results indicate that higher leader similarity reduces the likelihood of sanction imposition. The effect is most pronounced for sanctions imposed through unilateral political decisions. The probability of such sanctions ranges from 2.3 percent at the highest observed leader similarity to 7.2 percent at the lowest. Leader similarity especially matters for sanctions aimed at democratic change or human rights, for non-trade sanctions, and when at least one autocracy is involved. Finally, leader similarity has become more important after the Cold War.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adhering Indigenous Communities to the State: Recognition Politics During Civil Conflict 使土著社区依附于国家：内战期间的承认政治
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261439068
Michael Albertus
{"title":"Adhering Indigenous Communities to the State: Recognition Politics During Civil Conflict","authors":"Michael Albertus","doi":"10.1177/00220027261439068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261439068","url":null,"abstract":"Numerous countries in recent decades have formally recognized collective indigenous claims to territory and self-governance during civil conflict despite challenges to state authority and social order. How does collective indigenous recognition impact conflict violence within communities? This paper shows that indigenous recognition can shore up order and state reach. It does so in Peru, where the state recognized thousands of indigenous communities during an internal conflict from 1980 to 2000 that disproportionately impacted indigenous Peruvians. Using a staggered difference-in-difference research design and an original spatial mapping of conflict violence to indigenous communities, I find that formal recognition reduced wartime violence. Further analysis of community characteristics as well as state and community counterinsurgency efforts indicates that as recognition fosters greater legibility and transfers disputes into state institutions, it invites state penetration and coordination with state actors that ultimately adheres communities to the state.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147635987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders 战争中被低估的死亡人数：来自UCDP编码员调查的概率重新评估
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261423826
Paola Vesco, David Randahl, Håvard Hegre, Stina Högbladh, Mert Can Yilmaz
{"title":"The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders","authors":"Paola Vesco, David Randahl, Håvard Hegre, Stina Högbladh, Mert Can Yilmaz","doi":"10.1177/00220027261423826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261423826","url":null,"abstract":"Event datasets, such as those provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), provide high-quality data on conflict fatalities. However, such data are likely to suffer from an unknown extent of bias and uncertainties in the reports they are based on. Although a substantial literature documents reporting bias in conflict research, analyses that quantify this bias are mostly limited to single countries. Here, we combine a survey with UCDP coders and statistical modeling to derive a distribution of plausible number of fatalities given the number of battle-related deaths and the type of violence documented by the UCDP. We provide a generalizable, cross-national measure of uncertainty around UCDP reported fatalities that is more robust and realistic than UCDP’s documented low and high estimates, countering UCDP’s intrinsic tendency to under-estimate fatalities, and we make available a dataset and R package that can be applied to future releases of the UCDP data.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147635989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Peace Agreement Content: How Conflict Events Predict the Substance of Peace Settlements 预测和平协议内容：冲突事件如何预测和平解决的实质
IF 3.1 1区 社会学
Journal of Conflict Resolution Pub Date : 2026-04-07 DOI: 10.1177/00220027261440163
Meri Dankenbring, Constantin Ruhe
{"title":"Forecasting Peace Agreement Content: How Conflict Events Predict the Substance of Peace Settlements","authors":"Meri Dankenbring, Constantin Ruhe","doi":"10.1177/00220027261440163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027261440163","url":null,"abstract":"Despite growing work on conflict forecasting, few studies predict conflict termination and none negotiation outcomes. We address this gap, assessing how well we can predict peace agreement content using conflict dynamics – particularly, insurgent distance from the capital. Thus, our study evaluates the predictive power of long-standing arguments in peace research, suggesting that conflict dynamics determine the prospects of negotiations. Utility theory posits that actors learn about their relative strength through conflict events and update their demands in negotiations accordingly. Ergo, actors’ demands become more compatible with increasingly similar perceptions of relative capability. Scholars often proxy relative strength using insurgent distance from the capital, as it holds information on their ability to win battles. We evaluate whether battle locations predict agreement content using PA-X data. We find that a simple, theory-driven model performs almost as well as more complex, data-driven models. Nevertheless, models excluding conflict dynamics also have comparable predictive power.","PeriodicalId":51363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","volume":"439 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147635988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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