Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"On using dynamical seasonal forecasts to develop management-driven wildland fire outlooks in Alaska","authors":"Cecilia Borries-Strigle , Uma S. Bhatt , Peter A. Bieniek , Mitchell Burgard , Eric Stevens , Heidi Strader , Richard L. Thoman , Alison York , Robert H. Ziel","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As wildland fires in Alaska and its boreal forest become more extreme, preparing for the upcoming wildfire season has become increasingly challenging for fire managers. This study was developed in close collaboration with fire managers to address their need for advanced summer fire outlooks issued in March and May. Three seasonal forecast models are used to create summer fire outlooks: NOAA CFSv2, ECMWF SEAS5, and Météo-France System8. Variables from these forecasts are used to calculate Buildup Index (BUI), an operationally used fire weather index from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. The BUI outlooks are evaluated based on Alaska wildfire subseason, BUI tercile, and predictive service area subregion with the area under the ROC curve (AUROC), Heidke, and mean squared error (MSE) skill scores. Skill is greatest for the wind (April 1–June 10) and drought (July 21–August 9) subseasons and in the Western Boreal subregion of Alaska. Combining the models into a multimodel ensemble increases forecast skill by an average of 11% (19%) for the March (May) forecast AUROC score and an average of 87% (92%) for the March (May) forecast Heidke skill score. May forecasts typically have equal or greater skill than March forecasts, with the greatest increases in skill seen during the wind subseason. However, instances of higher Heidke and MSE skill scores for March forecasts, especially in later subseasons and during large fires years, could be explained by the seasonally decreased predictability.</div></div><div><h3>Practical Implications</h3><div>Alaska’s wildfire season has changed over the past 30 years. The season has lengthened by about a month, and extreme fire events have become more frequent. Fire managers begin preparing for the upcoming fire season in March, several weeks before the administrative start of the fire season (April 1) and about three months before the typical peak in late June to early July. With the increasing availability of dynamical seasonal forecasts, the Alaska fire management community has expressed growing interest in using these tools for operational planning.</div><div>In this study, we used March-initialized seasonal forecasts to generate early-season outlooks of the Buildup Index (BUI), a key fire weather variable. These outlooks align with the timing of critical early-season decision-making by fire managers, including resource allocation and national coordination. After several years of providing these outlooks, fire managers requested additional outlooks initialized in May to support decisions after the season has begun but before its peak. Although May-initialized forecasts are typically more skillful, our early focus on the more challenging March forecasts reflects our commitment to meeting fire managers’ needs. This long-term collaboration, including presentations at spring meetings and sustained engagement through biweekly calls, has helped refine our scientific focus—e.g., by emphasizing the duff","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100592"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144472134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sub-seasonal and seasonal climate predictions for a sporting goods retailer company: Co-development of a climate service from scratch","authors":"Albert Soret ,&nbsp;Albert Martínez-Botí ,&nbsp;Raul Marcos-Matamoros ,&nbsp;Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego ,&nbsp;Francesc Roura-Adserias ,&nbsp;Lluís Palma ,&nbsp;Sergio Benito Martín ,&nbsp;Sergio González-Ubierna","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting variations in weather conditions beyond a few days is of great interest to decision-makers, as this time horizon aligns with the strategic planning needs of stakeholders in climate-vulnerable sectors affected by seasonality. While the effects of climate variability are well understood in sectors such as energy and agriculture, where the potential applications of climate predictions in decision-making are already being explored, in other sectors, the direct impacts of climate variability on operations or on defining seasonal transitions remain unclear. In this context, our paper describes the knowledge exchange and co-development process carried out during the co-production of an operational climate service for a sports retail company. We developed a climate service that combines sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts to provide tailored and user-friendly climate information for the upcoming weeks and months. The operational system supported decision-making in selected stores over a year, with regular evaluations helping to build trust in the service and informing new developments for an improved version. This study demonstrates that a co-production approach, where interaction between the user and the scientist is established early in the forecast product development, is fundamental to the creation of a successful climate service. Beyond this specific case, the long-term aim of the work is to compile and synthesise the lessons learned in developing this service at sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales, to encourage its adoption in other comparable retail businesses also affected by climate variability (e.g. the fashion industry and food-snack production).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100583"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144364876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drought assessment and development trend in Mu Us Sandy Land based on standardized precipitation and potential evapotranspiration index","authors":"Liang Li’e,&nbsp;Wang Xiaohan,&nbsp;Chao Yan,&nbsp;Li Jiamin,&nbsp;Zhu Yonghua","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming leads to more frequent droughts. Therefore, in order to understand the development characteristics of drought, based on high-resolution climate data, the Mann-Kendall test, empirical orthogonal function decomposition and multi-threshold operation theory were adopted to analyze the characteristics of the multi-scale standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized potential evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 2002 to 2021. Based on CMIP6, the development trend of drought under different emission scenarios from 2021 to 2040 was predicted through multi-model ensemble (MME). The results show that both SPI and SPEI effectively identify the drought conditions in MUSL. The short-term scale (1/3 month) of SPI is stable in identifying drought with precipitation deficiency, and SPEI is more sensitive to sudden drought driven by high temperature. Both indicators on a long-term scale (6/12 months) can effectively monitor persistent drought. In the low-emission scenario (SSP126/245), drought is mainly dominated by precipitation changes. The results of SPI and SPEI are relatively consistent and both can be used for monitoring. In the high-emission scenario (SSP370/585), the increase in temperature intensifies evapotranspiration. SPEI can more accurately reflect the actual drought risk, while relying solely on SPI may underestimate the intensification effect of high temperature on drought. The comprehensive implementation of these measures will effectively enhance the resilience of the study area in responding to the increasingly severe drought challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100588"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Spatial Decision Support System for climate-adapted agriculture designed with and for stakeholders in West Africa","authors":"Katrin Ziegler ,&nbsp;Daniel Abel ,&nbsp;Lorenz König ,&nbsp;Torsten Weber ,&nbsp;Insa Otte ,&nbsp;Mike Teucher ,&nbsp;Christopher Conrad ,&nbsp;Michael Thiel ,&nbsp;Imoleayo Ezekiel Gbode ,&nbsp;Vincent Olanrewaju Ajayi ,&nbsp;Amadou Coulibaly ,&nbsp;Seydou B. Traoré ,&nbsp;Benewinde Jean-Bosco Zoungrana ,&nbsp;Heiko Paeth","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) designed to assist stakeholders in West Africa in analysing critical climate and land use indicators for risk management in agriculture and further sectors being affected by extreme precipitation and temperature events. Developed as part of the WASCAL WRAP 2.0 project LANDSURF, the SDSS makes scientific data accessible and comprehensible to non-scientific audiences, facilitating informed decision-making among communities affected by climate change. From the beginning of the development process, the web portal was co-designed with relevant West African stakeholders. Due to the challenging conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, alternative online communication tools, e.g. ZOOM, online surveys and email, successfully were utilized to interact with stakeholders instead of on-site activities. The co-design process carried out with stakeholders includes several steps such as stakeholder analysis, identification of their information needs using specific climate, crop and remote sensing indicators, and the evaluation of the SDSS in a dedicated workshop. In total, the co-design process involved nine different steps, recorded and described in a stakeholder interaction protocol.</div><div>The SDSS integrates observational data, including CHIRPS and ERA5-Land datasets, and state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model outputs under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and remote sensing data. It enables the comparison of model outputs with observations and facilitates the assessment of regional climate variability and trends. Two concept studies illustrate the SDSS’s functionality: one focusing on a farmer in Burkina Faso assessing irrigation needs for millet cultivation, and another involving a regional planner analysing drought and heat wave impacts in coastal West Africa. These examples highlight the SDSS’s usability in supporting adaptive strategies and enhancing resilience to climate-related challenges, underscoring the importance of integrating local knowledge with scientific data for effective climate adaptation and mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100585"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144272266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks","authors":"Joseph Daron ,&nbsp;Katerina Michaelides ,&nbsp;Khalid Hassaballah ,&nbsp;Andrés Quichimbo ,&nbsp;Rebecca Parfitt ,&nbsp;Jessica Stacey ,&nbsp;Anna Steynor ,&nbsp;Catrina Johnson ,&nbsp;David MacLeod ,&nbsp;Michael Bliss Singer","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communities across the world are sensitive to the impacts of seasonal climate variability, particularly in regions where distinct rainfall seasons support livelihoods and economic activities. Timely and actionable warnings of hazardous seasonal conditions and advisories tailored to different sectors can enable people to respond, reduce risks, and seize opportunities. Yet despite advances in seasonal forecasting methods and capabilities, there remains a lack of “impact-based” seasonal climate outlooks that more directly serve societal needs while preserving uncertainty information for risk-based decision making. Here we present a new method to address this gap, focusing on implementation in Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums and targeted at intermediary users who support the communication of seasonal outlooks across scales. The Seasonal IMpact-Based OutLook (SIMBOL) method provides a simple and scalable approach for use in regions across the world. We describe the conceptual basis for the method, embedded in the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) framework, and demonstrate its application through a case study of seasonal total rainfall impacts on groundwater in Somalia, trialled at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) in February 2024. We elaborate the critical role of co-production amongst different knowledge holders for characterizing impacts across all potential outlook outcomes, avoiding advisories that are biased towards the “most likely” outcome. We also discuss the importance of objective evidence from impact modelling and observations to consider antecedent conditions. Lessons learned and challenges encountered in developing the method are discussed to inform opportunities for future development and implementation in different contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100579"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143948940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the local context for implementing a climate based early warning system for dengue fever outbreaks in Ecuador","authors":"Gabrielle M.A. Cepella ,&nbsp;Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova ,&nbsp;Marianne van Elteren ,&nbsp;Desislava Petrova","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dengue fever is hyper-endemic in Ecuador and has persistently challenged its public health system. Previously, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on local temperature and precipitation in coastal Ecuador was linked to dengue outbreaks. A framework for early epidemics prediction based on long-lead ENSO and local climate forecasts was developed and tested for El Oro province. It could provide timely information to policy makers, but it is not being systematically utilized. In this study we assess barriers and pathways for a climate-driven dengue EWS implementation in Ecuador. Initially, 30 stakeholders from the climate and health sector were approached, and 11 semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to identify needs and priorities. Although all topics were covered during each interview, the structure and sequence of the questions varied according to the stakeholder background. In the exploratory phase specific codes were assigned to data fragments, and themes that reached the highest level of saturation were analyzed. Our results point to a limited compatibility between the current outbreak management and a climate-driven dengue EWS. To enhance compatibility, all participants indicated that EWS implementation should be led by the Ministry of Health or another established inter-institutional management structure invested with authority and knowledge about the needs and aims. This would ensure the participation of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds, and build trust in the EWS. Promoting data sharing, working on city or province level and improving local infrastructure to prevent flooding could also guarantee its effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100571"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing disparities in access, use, and potential benefits of weather and climate information services among farmers in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor","authors":"Maya Moore ,&nbsp;Geneva List ,&nbsp;Max Mauerman ,&nbsp;Dante Salazar Ballesteros ,&nbsp;Walter Baethgen","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100573","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Climate risk is a critical challenge for smallholder farmers in Guatemala, and weather and climate information services (WCIS) are a growing policy solution. Using a survey of 330 farming households in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor, this research examines farmers’ ability to access and utilize WCIS for agricultural decision-making, as well as the association between WCIS and food insecurity. Our observational study found that while reported access to one approach, Local Technical Agro-Climatic Committees (LTACs) and agro-climatic bulletins (ACBs), was lower than expected among a representative sample of communities, nearly half of respondents reported accessing weather and climate information more generally. In an observational comparison, those accessing information implemented significantly more climate-resilient agricultural practices and were significantly more food secure than those not receiving the information; however, accessing information was correlated with household wealth and education, and its effect on food insecurity was not statistically identifiable in a multiple regression test with controls. Our study also provides empirical evidence that a lack of information is not the primary barrier to the adoption of adaptation practices. While farmers expressed a desire to adapt certain farming practices in response to climate risk, they faced financial and other barriers to implementing these strategies. Thus, while WCIS have potential for informing agricultural decisions, this study underscores the challenges associated with effectively delivering information to farmers, as well as highlights obstacles to their use when farmers do receive them. These insights are crucial for refining WCIS design and delivery. Recommendations include investing in more farmer-centric communication channels and coupling information with resources to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Guatemala’s Dry Corridor is a region highly susceptible to drought and climate variability. For smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed maize and bean cultivation, these climate risks intensify vulnerability and threaten livelihoods. Acute food insecurity is also a significant concern in Guatemala and the Dry Corridor. Weather and climate information services (WCIS) are offered as a policy solution in Guatemala, and globally, to aid in climate risk management and climate change adaptation. Timely and relevant climate information can inform adaptive agricultural practices, potentially helping to mitigate climate risks, reduce negative coping strategies, and safeguard household well-being.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study explores the reach of WCIS and the socioeconomic factors associated with its use among a population of smallholder farmers in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor, using a contextual assessment of decision-making processes, adaptive practices, and local constraints. We investigate the differences between those who access","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100573"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143906905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contextual drivers of climate-smart agroforestry adoption in Bugesera and Rulindo agroecosystems of Rwanda","authors":"Donatien Ntawuruhunga ,&nbsp;Edwin Estomii Ngowi ,&nbsp;Halima Omari Mangi ,&nbsp;Raymond John Salanga ,&nbsp;Kenneth Lynch Leonard","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examined 381 farmers from two regions in Rwanda to investigate how contextual factors at the field level interact with climate-smart agroforestry (CSAF) practices. Farmers were categorized as low (LAD), medium (MAD), and high (HAD) adopters based on tree counts. Various contextual factors — notably location, demographics, assets, farm characteristics, and institutional variables — were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, logit regression, and propensity score matching. Farmers in Bugesera had larger farms and higher tree counts than those in Rulindo, resulting in greater farm income in Bugesera. Positive correlations were found among altitude, slope, erosion class, gender, household size, poverty level, income source, marital status, education, farm area, cropping practices, farm-river distance, changes in CSAF cover, population dynamics, and LAD. CSAF farms outperformed monoculture farms regarding cassava, maize, and bean yields, particularly in Bugesera and Rulindo among larger landholdings. Logit regression analysis showed that combinations of multipurpose trees and crop planting significantly improved farm yields, with household size and farm size being critical factors for CSAF adoption. Propensity score matching confirmed the positive effects of CSAF practices on farm yield and income, contributing to enhanced rural well-being. These findings underscore the crucial role of CSAF in promoting well-being. The results encourage stakeholders to develop strategies for CSAF. While these findings are specific to local contexts, they may hold potential relevance at regional and global levels. This evidence supports the development of government-led policies implemented through extension services to systematize and stabilize CSAF practices across diverse farming systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100584"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144230358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reflections on the large-scale application of a community resilience measurement framework across the globe","authors":"Adriana Keating ,&nbsp;Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler ,&nbsp;Reinhard Mechler ,&nbsp;Finn Laurien ,&nbsp;Naomi Rubenstein ,&nbsp;Teresa Deubelli ,&nbsp;Stefan Velev ,&nbsp;Michael Szoenyi ,&nbsp;David Nash","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper reflects on learnings and analysis from an extensively globally applied, standardized community disaster resilience measurement framework that utilises bottom-up (locally collected) data. These lessons, from over a decade of on-the-ground work and analysis, are based on empirical evidence and have salience for scholars, policy-makers and practitioners aiming to strengthen community disaster resilience and apply bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities approach was co-designed and implemented by the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance: a transdisciplinary science-policy-practice collaboration including scientists, practitioners and private business. It has been applied globally in approximately 400 communities worldwide, demonstrating the real-world impact of scalable community disaster resilience measurement initiatives. Findings provide evidence for the impacts and good practices of applying bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. Quantitative analysis on this unique dataset provides new entry points for research on typologies and dynamics of resilience, based on empirical evidence on human, social, physical, natural and financial dimensions. Based on our analysis, we find that the use of bottom-up, multidimensional, standardized community disaster resilience measurement approaches is a worthwhile endeavour to support community disaster resilience strengthening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ordered probit results of determinants of climate change vulnerability across different agricultural enterprises in Kenya","authors":"Aurillia Manjella Ndiwa ,&nbsp;John Mburu ,&nbsp;Richard Mulwa ,&nbsp;Chepchumba Chumo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100578","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100578","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is significantly impacting small-scale farmers in Kenya, particularly those engaged in key agricultural enterprises; crop cultivation, livestock farming, and fish production. To design interventions and develop policies to address the challenges posed by climate change, it is important to gather evidence of the extent of household vulnerability and the related factors. This study assessed household vulnerability to climate change and identify contributing factors to guide effective interventions and policies. Using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index and ordered Probit regression model, data from 723 small-scale farmers were analyzed. The findings show that households relying solely on crop farming are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than those combining two or more types of agricultural activities. Households that engaged in multiple farming enterprises such as mixing crops with livestock or fish farming were better prepared to cope with climate-related challenges. Additionally, households headed by younger or more educated individuals, with access to agricultural training and extension services, accessing credit, having membership in farming groups, and located closer to markets were generally less vulnerable. Based on these findings, the study recommends i) implementation of interventions that promote multi-enterprise farming and synergies to enable farmers to diversify risks, (ii) introducing affordable credit options for farmer households, facilitated through policy and other initiatives such as cooperatives, as means to reduce household vulnerability to climate change, and (iii) strengthening government meteorological and extension services to ensure timely and efficient dissemination of climate change-related information to farmers, facilitating the adoption of adaptation measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100578"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}