Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Reflections on the large-scale application of a community resilience measurement framework across the globe","authors":"Adriana Keating ,&nbsp;Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler ,&nbsp;Reinhard Mechler ,&nbsp;Finn Laurien ,&nbsp;Naomi Rubenstein ,&nbsp;Teresa Deubelli ,&nbsp;Stefan Velev ,&nbsp;Michael Szoenyi ,&nbsp;David Nash","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper reflects on learnings and analysis from an extensively globally applied, standardized community disaster resilience measurement framework that utilises bottom-up (locally collected) data. These lessons, from over a decade of on-the-ground work and analysis, are based on empirical evidence and have salience for scholars, policy-makers and practitioners aiming to strengthen community disaster resilience and apply bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities approach was co-designed and implemented by the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance: a transdisciplinary science-policy-practice collaboration including scientists, practitioners and private business. It has been applied globally in approximately 400 communities worldwide, demonstrating the real-world impact of scalable community disaster resilience measurement initiatives. Findings provide evidence for the impacts and good practices of applying bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. Quantitative analysis on this unique dataset provides new entry points for research on typologies and dynamics of resilience, based on empirical evidence on human, social, physical, natural and financial dimensions. Based on our analysis, we find that the use of bottom-up, multidimensional, standardized community disaster resilience measurement approaches is a worthwhile endeavour to support community disaster resilience strengthening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards a holistic climate service: Addressing all four climate risk determinants","authors":"Jan Ketil Rød ,&nbsp;Carlo Aall ,&nbsp;Torbjørn Selseng","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article presents a newly developed climate service designed to monitor climate risk in Norwegian municipalities using a variety of indicators. The service is accessible through a publicly available multimedia platform. With the expected increase in extreme weather events, many climate services have emerged focusing solely on future climate conditions, thus addressing only the hazard component of climate risk. As a result, most current local climate services evaluate how future climate will impact today’s society. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, recently developed a risk framework consisting of four determinants: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and response. Following this framework, our climate service incorporates all four risk determinants. It presents geographically and temporally varying indicators expressing current, near-future, and far-future projections or scenarios on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and maps these against current response levels. This approach enables us to identify which municipalities in Norway are most at risk and currently have the least adequate responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100558"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change perceptions and adaptation responses among smallholder farmers across three locations in Megech Watershed, Ethiopia","authors":"Achenafi Teklay ,&nbsp;Asrat Ayalew ,&nbsp;Amanuel Abate ,&nbsp;Masresha Ashenafi ,&nbsp;Ashenafi Tadesse Marye ,&nbsp;Assefa Tilahun ,&nbsp;Haimanote K. Bayabil ,&nbsp;Alemayehu Kassa ,&nbsp;Hailu Birara ,&nbsp;Kassaye Gurebiyaw ,&nbsp;Kibruyesfa Sisay","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change significantly affects smallholder farmers in Ethiopia who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change can modify their adaptation response decisions. However, there is limited knowledge about the key constraints that hinder the adoption of climate change measures in the Megech watershed. This research aimed to assess the smallholder farmers’ perception regarding climate change and the factors influencing their decision to adopt adaptation measures. This research employed a multi-stage sampling procedure to select a sample of 385 smallholder farmer households. Structured and semi-structured questionnaires were designed to conduct a household survey and focus group discussion for data purposes. Furthermore, this study covered a comparison between the farmers’ perspectives on climate change and the observed climate trends. The data analysis was done by descriptive statistics and logistic regression equation. Results showed that the primary sources for most farmers to get information about climate change were extension workers, radio broadcasts, and religious institutions. The majority of farmers believed that climate change was attributed to deforestation, population growth, and industrialization. Almost all farmers were cognizant of the temperature rise, aligning with the observed trend. However, the perception of the farmers on declining rainfall aligns only with recent rainfall trends. Farmers in the downstream had more experience in adopting climate change resilience strategies than farmers in the mid and upstream. On average, 87% of the farmers applied adaptation measures, including intensive inputs (fertilizers), planting date changes, and improved varieties. The farmers’ adoption of adaptation strategies was hampered by challenges such as limited access to credit and high costs of agricultural inputs. The regression analysis revealed that age, education, extension and credit access, and livestock size significantly affected the decision to adopt adaptation measures. These findings may support policymakers in formulating location-based adaptation measures to enhance resilience to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100566"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of urban heat island using Google Earth Engine: Assessment and prediction—A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal","authors":"Bishal Khatri,&nbsp;Bipin Kharel,&nbsp;Pragati Dhakal,&nbsp;Samrat Acharya,&nbsp;Ujjwol Thapa","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines UHI dynamics and impacts in the rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using remote sensing and predictive modeling. The primary goals are to evaluate UHI trends and explore how urbanization influences temperature and climate change. To achieve these objectives, the research investigates the relationship between spectral characteristics, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and UHI, utilizing high-resolution data from MODIS and Landsat satellites to analyze land surface temperature (LST) and land use changes over recent decades. The study employs Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to predict future UHI dynamics, taking into account climatic variability, land use changes, and population growth. Findings reveal significant increases in LST and UHI intensity due to the expansion of impermeable surfaces and loss of vegetative cover. Predictions for 2030 indicate higher LSTs, with winter temperatures ranging from 9.34 °C to 30.12 °C and summer temperatures from 19.74 °C to 42.32 °C, showing an increase compared to 2020. Additionally, the UHI effect is predicted to intensify due to expanding built-up areas, with greater seasonal variation observed in summer. The results suggest that without effective mitigation, UHI will continue to worsen, exacerbating climate-related issues. Insights into the relationship between spectral parameters, LULC, and UHI can guide strategies to mitigate UHI effects, promote sustainable urban growth, and improve urban resilience. Integrating remote sensing technologies with predictive modeling is crucial for addressing urbanization and climate change challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100560"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage","authors":"Murray Scown ,&nbsp;Haomiao Du ,&nbsp;Guy Jackson ,&nbsp;Salvatore Paolo De Rosa ,&nbsp;Emily Boyd","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Losses and damages from climate change are not just a future risk but already a present reality, and “Loss and Damage” (L&amp;D) as a policy domain has been formalised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), alongside mitigation and adaptation. While climate services currently provide strong support for adaptation and disaster recovery, here we propose that an expanded set of climate services for L&amp;D (CS4L&amp;D) should be developed to help address climate justice implications of realised losses and damages. CS4L&amp;D could pragmatically connect research on climate hazards and lived experiences of impacts with global political negotiations on L&amp;D and transformative climate action and justice. Existing disaster databases and extreme event attribution services could be enhanced with knowledge relevant for L&amp;D, including information on exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, financial support, and governance. Existing disaster forensics tools could be enriched with knowledge on L&amp;D in the UNFCCC context, including the political and legal implications of evidence these tools provide. A broadening from risk management to climate justice also awakens new possibilities for climate services. An expansion of climate services for L&amp;D would contribute to climate justice by substantiating the L&amp;D mechanism under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement and the claims for compensating L&amp;D in climate litigation and activism. Novel users (and co-producers) of climate services for L&amp;D might be legal professionals, journalists, affected communities, and activists, in addition to the traditional users such as planners, consultants, and decision-makers. We encourage the L&amp;D and climate services communities to begin to co-develop with stakeholders such climate services for L&amp;D.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100563"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of climate change and variability-induced shocks and stresses on rural household livelihoods and their adaptation practices in West Arsi Zone, South-Central Ethiopia","authors":"Abebe Engda ,&nbsp;Fantaw Yimer ,&nbsp;Muluken Mekuyie ,&nbsp;Menfese Tadesse","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic trends and variability on main livelihood practices (crop production), as well as farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to local climate change in West Arsi zone. The data gathered from 354 of the 364 sample households who took part in the survey in six <em>Kebeles</em> utilizing a standardized questionnaire served as the basis for this investigation. Ten surveys with incomplete responses were removed from the data analysis after the responses were reviewed for completeness across all questionnaire sections. Key informant interviews, focus groups, meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, crop and aid beneficiary data from the West Arsi zone Bureau of Agriculture and Office for Disaster Risk Management were also used in the study. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze climate trends. The descriptive and multivariate statistical models in SPSS v.25 and Ms Excel soft wares were used to analyze data. The results indicated significant increase in aggregated mean annual temperature (p &lt; 0.001) by 0.045 °C per year and annual rainfall showed significant decrease (p &lt; 0.1) by 3.7 mm per year in the study area, over the period 1983 to 2019. The results indicates annual rainfall was a significant predictor of crop production (t = 15.24, p &lt; 0.05), and revealed a significant differences in household adaptation practices (p &lt; 0.001) between agro ecological zones. The study also revealed that household demographic and socio-economic factors significantly influenced their adaptation choices, highlighting the need for further research on interventions that enhance local adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100561"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptation to climate change by the indigenous farmers in the western Tarai of Nepal","authors":"Buddhi R. Chaudhary ,&nbsp;Greg Acciaioli ,&nbsp;William Erskine ,&nbsp;Luni Piya ,&nbsp;Niraj Prakash Joshi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Challenges posed by climate change are more severe for indigenous farmers in developing countries. For them, their rich socio-culture constructs their livelihood capitals, which also indicate their adaptive capacity (AC). Hence, understanding their adaptation strategies to climate change and their adoption in relation to AC is urgently needed. All 229 Tharu households residing in two rural villages in the Western Tarai of Nepal were surveyed using the semi-structured questionnaire complemented by two focused group discussions and 10 key informant interviews with leading farmers and concerned stakeholders. The questionnaire included three sections, namely; agriculture, climate change, and livelihoods along with the household characteristics. We found that AC varies with space and gender. The geographical location of the village and households with access to service and market have better AC. Women had lower AC, particularly human capital and natural capital of livelihoods. The Tharu consider multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the farming in changed climatic contexts. Adopting modern agriculture technology in major cereal crops and continuing landraces with traditional practices are prominent adaptation strategies. This signifies the importance of indigenous knowledge and practice in climate change adaptation for the Tharu. Consequently, they are also contributing to the conservation of valuable landraces. Landholding, access to water pumps, extension services, and weather information are the significantly important factors associated with the adoption of adaptation strategies by the Tharu. Thus, the interventions must be designed to increase access to extension services, improve farmers’ access to water pumps, and secure tenurial arrangements to adopt climate change adaptation measures effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100559"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ambition setting through climate services to drive climate resilient development","authors":"Gaby S. Langendijk ,&nbsp;Eva Boon ,&nbsp;Hasse Goosen ,&nbsp;Ad Jeuken ,&nbsp;Saioa Zorita Castresana ,&nbsp;Nieves Pena Cerezo ,&nbsp;Jaroslav Mysiak ,&nbsp;Leon Kapetas","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation efforts need to accelerate and scale-up to deal with increasing climate change impacts worldwide in order to safeguard the resilience of societies. Currently adaptation action is merely following a risk-based planning approach, going from identifying a climate related risk to directly finding solutions. This has resulted into largely fragmented, local, and incremental adaptation actions up to present. There is a need for transformational change, and combining adaptation with other policy objectives, to speed up action towards climate resilient development. However, this integration alone may not be sufficient to address the systemic transformation required to tackle the root causes of existing challenges and underlaying vulnerabilities. A broader perspective is needed to envision the “future we want” and defining key goals and actions to achieve these futures. We believe that such an ambition setting process is critical, and commonly missing in adaptation planning. With ambition setting we mean a policy process that entails developing visions coupled with identifying goals and actions that work towards these visions. Ambition setting builds upon understanding the desired transformations in the system and the root cause of present challenges, including risks and vulnerabilities. To put ambition setting into practice climate services and tools can be employed. We identify key criteria supporting the selection of such tools and provide four examples showcasing how the tools support ambition setting. A tradition of ambition setting should be fostered, as well as tools and services should be further developed in parallel to accelerate transformations towards climate resilient development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100556"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation","authors":"Lola Corre ,&nbsp;Aurélien Ribes ,&nbsp;Sébastien Bernus ,&nbsp;Agathe Drouin ,&nbsp;Samuel Morin ,&nbsp;Jean-Michel Soubeyroux","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;To describe regional climate change, climate services typically rely on an ensemble of climate model simulations. The development and arrival of observational constraints at regional scales are questioning this approach, as some simulations may not align with warming trajectories estimated by these techniques. This study proposes a methodology for describing future regional changes that combines multiple sources of information: global and regional observational constraints applied to the CMIP6 ensemble, along with existing regional climate model simulations driven by CMIP5. This approach uses Regional Warming Levels (RWLs), mirroring the use of Global Warming Levels (GWLs) in the IPCC AR6. We apply it to mainland France, a region with discrepancies in warming projections between global models, regional models, and observational constraints. Results show that the standard GWL approach produces unrealistically low warming estimates due to overly low regional-to-global warming ratios in some models. Using RWLs allows separation of the annual mean warming estimation (based on observational constraints) from the detailed climate change characteristics (based on regional models). We explore ways to link RWLs and GWLs and assess associated uncertainties. This methodology has been selected to describe future climate change in mainland France, as part of the definition of a reference trajectory for adaptation set by the French government. It can be replicated in other regions and applied to existing or upcoming climate projections to express them in terms of regional warming levels at the national scale.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The French government has recently chosen to adopt a reference trajectory for adaptation to climate change in France, known as the TRACC (Trajectoire de Réchauffement de référence pour l’Adaptation au Changement Climatique). This trajectory defines 3 levels to which the country needs to prepare for, corresponding to +1.5 °C global warming in 2030, +2 °C in 2050 and +3 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. The aim is to establish a single framework for climate change impact studies including climate services, the definition and analysis of adaptation actions, standardizing practices nationwide and facilitating a coherent response to climate challenges. This article describes the methodological choices associated with this trajectory, based on a description of future changes at a fixed regional warming level (RWL) consistent with the chosen global trajectory. For mainland France, the 3 TRACC levels are expressed as an average warming over the country of 2 °C in 2030, 2.7 °C in 2050 and 4 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. These are derived from observational constraints, combining models and observations. The subsequent description of local scale climate change is based on existing regional climate model simulations. The article finally provides a description of some of the changes associated with the","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100553"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting precipitation and NDVI utilization of the multi-level linear mixed-effects model and the CA-markov simulation model","authors":"Fatima Belhaj ,&nbsp;Hlila Rachid ,&nbsp;Ouallali Abdessalam ,&nbsp;Aqil Tariq ,&nbsp;Belkendil Abdeldjalil ,&nbsp;Beroho Mohamed ,&nbsp;Hassan Alzahrani ,&nbsp;Hajra Mustafa ,&nbsp;Hesham Mohamed El-Askary","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current work intends to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and the Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Loukkos watershed and provide scenarios for their recent and future evolution, therefore determining the degree of association. We conducted a study on the time series data of precipitation and NDVI from 1999 to 2019. The NDVI prediction is conducted using the CA-Markov model and the linear mixed-effects multi-level model (LME) with precipitation data from 2019 to 2040. The CA-Markov model was employed to predict the vegetation indices for 2029 and 2040 using 1999, 2009, and 2019 data. The model simulates future precipitation estimates for up to 2040 using different daily precipitation data series obtained from ten meteorological stations between 1999 and 2019. The accuracy of NDVI simulation is evaluated using kappa indices, specifically <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>location</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 88%, <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>n</mi><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> of 86%, and <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>d</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 83%, indicating that the consistency between the simulated NDVI map of 2019 and the actual one is nearly perfect, indicating statistical reliability of our model. The precipitation forecast for the Loukkos watershed predicts that average annual precipitation will decrease by 11.4% between 1999 and 2040. In contrast, based on 2019, there will be an increase in low vegetation areas and a decline in dense regions in the eastern and western parts of the basin in 2029 (−12.89%) and 2040 (−12.78%), respectively. The findings of this study suggest that by 2040, the Loukkos watershed will be exposed to future climate hazards, such as reduced precipitation and vegetation. The integration of geoinformation and prediction models is a great resource for optimizing environmental planning to prepare and potentially mitigate the harmful effects of climate change and its consequences for both humanity and the environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100554"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}