Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100487
Ángel L Luque Söllheim , Pablo Máyer Suarez , Fabián García Hernández
{"title":"The digital climate atlas of the Canary Islands: A tool to improve knowledge of climate and temperature and precipitation trends in the Atlantic islands","authors":"Ángel L Luque Söllheim , Pablo Máyer Suarez , Fabián García Hernández","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100487","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents the Interactive Digital Climate Atlas of the Canary Islands, a web portal based on geographic information systems for the dissemination of climate information. It provides citizens and public and private administrations with high spatial resolution maps (100 m) of different climate variables such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, cloudiness frequency and wind velocity. Also available are Köppen climate classification maps and decadal trends of temperature and precipitation in a context of climate change. This spatial resolution is suitable for the detailed climatic description of small and orographically complex islands. For this purpose, climate series from databases of different public institutions as well as data from remote sensing and reanalysis systems were employed. A statistical process involving data filtering and the detection and correction of inhomogeneous segments was carried out as a preparatory step. Then, a spatial interpolation model was developed using a multiple linear regression method for the generation of the high spatial resolution climate cartography. The results are annual and monthly maps of the climate variables in Canary Islands at 100 m spatial resolution and with different time periods depending on the availability of data on the different variables, but in most cases between 1991 and 2020. Following the European Directive INSPIRE (Directive 2007/2/CE, Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe), both map visualisation and downloading in GeoTIFF and NetCDF format are permitted, as well as consultation of the data and metadata of the climatic series used.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100487"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000426/pdfft?md5=b9139fb27264cea1415ae4d164b8117d&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000426-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141090232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100499
Maria del Pozo , Judith Gulikers , Bregje van der Bolt , Spyridon Paparrizos , Wouter Smolenaars , Perry den Brok , Fulco Ludwig
{"title":"A learning framework for designing climate services for capacity building","authors":"Maria del Pozo , Judith Gulikers , Bregje van der Bolt , Spyridon Paparrizos , Wouter Smolenaars , Perry den Brok , Fulco Ludwig","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100499","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate services aim to provide climate information to aid decision-making. However, in practice their effectiveness is hampered by factors such as incompatibility with decisions, neglect of user’s context, and limited understanding of the information provided. Enhancing climate services’ user orientation necessitates capacity building to bolster the knowledge and collaborative skills among actors in the climate production chain. This study introduces a learning framework for capacity building in climate services that was developed using iterative systematic cycles for educational design research. The framework contains seven steps, along with relevant guiding questions, derived from the evaluation of case studies and the trainer’s experiences in 21 training events conducted under the User Learning Services (ULS) of the Copernicus Climate Change (C3S). Overall, this study offers a learning framework that can guide the content and design of capacity building in future climate information services. This contributes significantly to the ongoing effort to enhance and understand the impact of climate services on decision making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100499"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000542/pdfft?md5=827ebc888b08d0efa4f39537402f6fb5&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000542-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141314534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480
J. Mindlin , C.S. Vera , T.G. Shepherd , F.J. Doblas-Reyes , N. Gonzalez-Reviriego , M. Osman , M. Terrado
{"title":"Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective","authors":"J. Mindlin , C.S. Vera , T.G. Shepherd , F.J. Doblas-Reyes , N. Gonzalez-Reviriego , M. Osman , M. Terrado","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Under the pressing warming of climate, interpretable and useful-for-adaptation information has become a need in society and has promoted rapid methodological advances in climate science. One such advance is the development of the dynamical-storyline approach, with which the spread in multi-model scenario projections can be represented as a set of physically plausible scenarios (storylines) defined by (a) a global warming level and (b) changes in large-scale dynamical conditions that arise from climate forcing. Moreover, if changes in regional climate are assessed in such a way that they can clearly inform societal systems or management of natural ecosystems, they can potentially aid decision-making in a practical manner. Such is the aim of the climatic impact-driver (CID) framework, proposed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we combine the dynamical-storyline approach with the CID framework and apply them to climate services. We focus on CIDs associated with the viticulture sector and the region of the South American Andes, where currently both Argentina and Chile produce wine. We explain the benefits of this approach from a communication and adaptation perspective. In particular, we found that the CIDs related to seasonally aggregated temperatures are mainly dependent on the global warming level although in some regions, but they can also be sensitive to changes in dynamical conditions. Meanwhile, CIDs related to extreme temperature values and precipitation depend strongly on the dynamical response. We show how adaptation to climate-related compound risks can be informed by a storyline approach, given that they can address compound uncertainty in multiple locations, variables and seasons.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100480"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000359/pdfft?md5=9ff561e85abffb3ab90c0b352f33d991&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000359-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140901000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100486
G. Strandberg , P. Blomqvist , N. Fransson , L. Göransson , J. Hansson , S. Hellsten , E. Kjellström , C. Lin , E. Löfblad , S. Montin , E. Nyholm , A. Sandgren , T. Unger , V. Walter , J. Westerberg
{"title":"Bespoke climate indicators for the Swedish energy sector − a stakeholder focused approach","authors":"G. Strandberg , P. Blomqvist , N. Fransson , L. Göransson , J. Hansson , S. Hellsten , E. Kjellström , C. Lin , E. Löfblad , S. Montin , E. Nyholm , A. Sandgren , T. Unger , V. Walter , J. Westerberg","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100486","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100486","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change concerns the energy sector to a high degree because the sector is sensitive both to changing conditions for power and heat production, and to changing demand for electricity, heating and cooling. In this study potential consequences of climate change on different parts of the Swedish energy sector were assessed in a series of workshops, where climate and energy scientists, energy systems experts and analysts met with representatives of the energy sector to assess the vulnerability of the sector and consider what climate indicators could be used to assess impacts of relevance.</p><p>The impact of climate change depends on the energy type. Hydropower, for which production is naturally linked to weather and climate, is significantly impacted by climate change. For other forms of production, such as nuclear power, other factors such as e.g. policy and technology development are more important. The series of workshops held in this study, where different aspects of climate change and consequences were discussed, proved very successful and has increased our understanding of climate impacts on the energy system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000414/pdfft?md5=5df86e20b31b7bfcb1b8333e50f2188b&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000414-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140951301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100497
Khondokar H. Kabir , Uwe A. Schneider , Holli R. Leggette
{"title":"Three faces of climate change: Using Q-methodology to understand farmers’ perspectives of climate change and adaptive capacity in Bangladesh’s wetland areas","authors":"Khondokar H. Kabir , Uwe A. Schneider , Holli R. Leggette","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100497","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Even though the weather-dependent agricultural sector is severely impacted by climate change and requires more adaptive measures, climate change adaptation in the global south is slow. The perception of farmers, who are the final decision-makers, strongly influences the adoption of climate-smart technologies and the (un)willingness to follow recommended measures. Although perception studies have attracted the international community’s interest, these studies have disregarded the heterogeneity within the farming community. Our study uses Q-methodology to address this gap by examining small-scale farmers’ perspectives on climate change and their perceived adaptation capacity in wetland areas of north-eastern Bangladesh. Following post-sort interviews, 36 farmers were invited to participate in the Q-sorting using 34 pre-selected statements. The study revealed three distinct types of perspectives on climate change and adaptive capacity: <em>theists</em> who believe in the act of God and take a “do nothing” approach, <em>realists</em> who believe in climate change but are unaware of climate change trade-offs, and <em>pragmatists</em> who recognize climate change and actively pursue adaptations. The awareness of different climate change perspectives can support policymakers and extension service providers. By replacing their one-size-fits-all approach, they can better assist wetland farmers in developing and implementing tailored adaptation strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100497"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000529/pdfft?md5=555ffcc6c971c0f6209a193a9669dc99&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000529-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141291085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100460
Roger Street , Torsten Weber
{"title":"Editorial for climate variability, its impacts on hydropower, agriculture, food security and adaptation strategies in Ethiopia and republic of South Sudan","authors":"Roger Street , Torsten Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100460","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100460"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000153/pdfft?md5=1faa5b22cd0e1b5ed7b65f98c78b1851&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000153-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140405587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100476
Vladut Falcescu , Sorin Cheval , Dana Magdalena Micu , Alexandru Dumitrescu , Irena Roznovieţchi , Monica Dumitrașcu , Nicoleta Damian
{"title":"Climate services in Romania − an analysis of stakeholders’ perceptions and needs","authors":"Vladut Falcescu , Sorin Cheval , Dana Magdalena Micu , Alexandru Dumitrescu , Irena Roznovieţchi , Monica Dumitrașcu , Nicoleta Damian","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, the<!--> <!-->climate services market<!--> <!-->has increased significantly, especially in the Western European countries<!--> <!-->where they have become widely utilised in both the public and private sectors. In Romania, there is no specialised platform for those kinds of services, and the sector is in its beginnings. The current study is based on sociological research conducted as part of a national project aimed at increasing adaptive capacity to climate change. The purpose of the questionnaire that served as the study’s base was to collect information about the extent to which climate services are used by organisations, their perception of the benefits of using the services, the technical characteristics of the services, and the future needs of stakeholders. Such an analysis is necessary to comprehend the existing market situation in Romania and to be able to establish the circumstances essential for an effective improvement of climate services and products based on the co-development concept. The main outcomes of the survey conducted at the national level (324 respondents) confirm the early stage of the national climate service market as (i) only a small share (34 %) of respondents are users of climate products and services (mostly from agriculture, forestry, water resources management, biodiversity, energy sectors) and (ii) climate data and products are insufficiently tailored at sectoral level. Most representative identified stakeholder needs refer to: temporal (i.e., monthly, seasonal) and spatial resolution (i.e., local, regional) and types of tailored climate products (i.e., monthly/seasonal weather forecasts, spatio-temporal maps and analysis tool). The study identified premises further development of the climate service market in Romania (i.e., widespread interest in using climate products and services among the non-users, perceived societal benefits of climate products and services).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100476"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000311/pdfft?md5=f5c807ae020d2deeed819829135c9400&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000311-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140631303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100474
Nabil Touili , Kevin Morel , Christine Aubry , Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré
{"title":"What do vegetable farmers expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? A case study from the Parisian region","authors":"Nabil Touili , Kevin Morel , Christine Aubry , Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate services are an important tool providing information for many sectors to adapt to climate change. For agriculture, the impacts of climate change vary between regions and between crops, and farmers' needs for climate information are also determined by local context. The purpose of this paper is to identify the climate information needs of vegetable farmers, and to discuss these needs within the specific context of the Parisian region. Based on participatory workshops in three areas of the Parisian region, and using regional downscaled data from the French climate services, this study addresses the following question: what do vegetable farmers of a <em>peri</em>-urban area expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? Participatory workshops with agricultural expert allowed us to build a preliminary set of climate variables based on crops' vulnerability to high temperatures, mild temperature in winter, late frost, low relative air humidity, low precipitation, and climate extremes such as drought, heat waves and floods. Based on this set of variables climate projection on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales were provided to farmers for the near (2021–2040) and distant (2041–2060) future, as well as for past period (1990–2020) and discussed during 3 participatory workshops. Based on farmer’s feedbacks, we made a synthesis of climate information required by farmers which was validated and further discussed in a last round of workshops involving farmers and agricultural advisers. Three main findings emerge from this participatory study. Our first finding shows the need for both climate and non-climate information for vegetable farming adaptation. Specific needs include information on wind speed peaks and directions, soil moisture, climate analogous spaces (or sites), and urban planning regulations (constraining the possibility to build greenhouses or tunnels to adapt to climate change). Our second finding is that farmers expect from climate services to visualise a comprehensive climatic situation, that is, a whole conjunction of several inter-related variables, rather than precise and detailed variations of a single one. Seasonal and annual time scales seem to be the most relevant for farmers’ adaptation strategies (except for frost requiring more precise information). Our third finding is that these needs remain context-specific and depend on water access, the market demand (here Parisian), and the <em>peri</em>-urban location.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100474"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000293/pdfft?md5=ca3fad1edcf6256ed8ef7bc63d76377b&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000293-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140650042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100475
Apichaya Lilavanichakul , Tapan B. Pathak
{"title":"Thai farmers’ perceptions on climate change: Evidence on durian farms in Surat Thani province","authors":"Apichaya Lilavanichakul , Tapan B. Pathak","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events pose significant threats to agricultural productivity and food security. These conditions provide the glimpse of the future and smallholder farmers, who often lack access to resources and support, are particularly vulnerable. Among the crops cultivated in Thailand, durian stands out as a uniquely cherished commodity, predominantly cultivated by these vulnerable farmers and despite the significance of this crop, there remains a notable oversight in understanding the specific challenges and vulnerabilities faced by durian growers in the face of changing climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate the perception of climate change and the adaptive capacity among durian farmers in Southern Thailand. A survey involving 80 durian farmers from Surat Thani province was conducted, and the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a binary logistic regression model. Findings found that 91.2 % of respondents acknowledged the impact of climate change, with 53.1 % opting to implement adaptation strategies. Factors such as lower education levels, limited farming experience, small farm sizes, and greater reliance on family labor significantly influenced the adoption of these strategies. Farmers achieving higher yields tended to adopt information and communication technologies (ICT), while smart farming technology (SFT) was more common among younger farmers and those with larger farms. This study indicates factors influencing adoption and a potential gap between awareness and action among durian farmers, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and support mechanisms to encourage and facilitate the implementation of adaptation measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100475"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072400030X/pdfft?md5=9afdd7ee9076799db4a339a62c0b560e&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072400030X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140632998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100477
Zixuan Qi , Lian Sun , Yanpeng Cai , Yulei Xie , Linlin Yao , Bowen Li , Yuchen Ye
{"title":"Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China","authors":"Zixuan Qi , Lian Sun , Yanpeng Cai , Yulei Xie , Linlin Yao , Bowen Li , Yuchen Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Extreme heat-precipitation events, such as heatwaves and extreme precipitation, can have substantial impacts on the population, particularly in urbanized watersheds. However, few studies have investigated individual and compound extreme heat-precipitation events, causing much valuable information loss for watershed climate risk management. This study focuses on the Pearl River Basin (PRB), a highly urbanized area in southern China, and aims to predict changes in population exposure to extreme heat-precipitation events. To achieve this, a ranked ensemble global climate model (GCM) was used to generate projections for individual extreme precipitation, heatwaves, and sequential and coincident heat waves and precipitation extremes (SHWPs and CHWPs) under three future scenarios (SSP-RCPs). The main findings of the study are as follows: Precipitation extremes represent increasing extreme days and intensity under all three scenarios across the PRB. Towards the end of the 21st century, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that heat waves will last ten times longer than historical records. Comparing two types of compound extreme events, we conclude that the 21st century will see a near-term high risk for SHWPs and a long-term high risk for CHWPs in the PRB. Furthermore, in both individual and compound heat-precipitation events, five hotspot cities in the PRB (i.e., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, and Huizhou) will face higher population exposure to extreme heat-precipitation events. These cities share common characteristics: key to economic development, coastal, and densely populated. This study can provide insight into extreme climate risk management in other tropical and subtropical basins.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000323/pdfft?md5=b67498b15be7b43219e94ef9a09763c8&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000323-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140632999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}