Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Grid based monitoring and forecasting system of cropping conditions and risks by agrometeorological indicators in Austria – Agricultural Risk Information System ARIS","authors":"Josef Eitzinger ,&nbsp;Voiko Daneu ,&nbsp;Gerhard Kubu ,&nbsp;Sabina Thaler ,&nbsp;Mirek Trnka ,&nbsp;Andreas Schaumberger ,&nbsp;Stefan Schneider ,&nbsp;Thi Mai Anh Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>ARIS (Agricultural Risk Information System) is a GIS (Geographical Information System)-based modelling system (applicable for hind-casting, weather observations and forecasting as well as climate scenario projections) for a number of weather-related abiotic and biotic cropping risks, crop management and growing conditions. In our study we demonstrate and describe the functionality and characteristics of ARIS on Austrian conditions and domain. ARIS indicators can be applied for different time periods on a daily base and a spatial grid of 1 km for weather/climate conditions (0,5 km for soil conditions based on the available Austrian soil map). The currently implemented indicators for general cropping conditions or risks are based on daily weather variables, partly combined with soil wetness, regardless other potential (not weather related) limitations. Crop specific risk indicators are based on algorithms for phenological development of currently 5 main crops and include especially the soil-crop water balance and combined drought and heat stress effects. Biotic indicators include pests and diseases of importance for Austrian conditions. ARIS allows the combined assessment of abiotic and biotic risks during crop growing seasons and thus provides a wide set of information for decision support or strategic planning for stakeholders in the agricultural sector. The system has the potential to be adapted for diverse agroecosystems or be extended by further weather related abiotic or biotic indicators or crop types, if the necessary (grid based) input data formats are available.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100478"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000335/pdfft?md5=03112e62c640f52503727faa0097b810&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000335-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140825890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Smallholder farmers’ perceived motivations for the adoption and implementation of climate information services in the Atwima Nwabiagya District, Ghana","authors":"Frank Baffour-Ata,&nbsp;Louisa Boakye,&nbsp;Kenneth Asare Okyere,&nbsp;Benedicta Boatemaa Boafo,&nbsp;Sylvia Amaniampong Ofosuhene,&nbsp;Audrey Owusu Tawiah,&nbsp;Isaac Odei,&nbsp;Selima Woriya Watara","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigated smallholder farmers’ perceived motivations for the adoption and implementation of climate information services (CIS) in the Atwima Nwabiagya District, Ghana. Specifically, the study answered the following research questions. (i) What is the perception of smallholder farmers on climate change and variability in the Atwima Nwabiagya District?; (ii) What are the CIS accessed and used by the smallholder farmers for farm management decisions?; (iii) What are the perceived motivations for the adoption and implementation of CIS by smallholder farmers?; and; (iv) What are the barriers confronting smallholder farmers in adopting and implementing CIS? Primary data was collected through questionnaire surveys with 200 farming households and four key informant interviews in four selected communities (Kobeng, Seidi, Wioso, and Nkawie Panin) in the study district. Results showed that smallholder farmers perceived climate change and variability through increased windstorms and thunderstorms, variable rainfall, and increased temperature patterns. The surveyed farmers also perceived that the climatic changes affect their agricultural activities adversely. However, the smallholder farmers accessed and used CIS including weather warnings (86%), daily weather forecasts (70%), and seasonal forecasts (60%) to manage climatic risks on the farm. Results also showed that the smallholder farmers were motivated by critical factors including improvement in the acquisition of proactive measures (92%), increased knowledge of climatic patterns that affect food stock (91%), and a reduction in loss of stock produced (88%) to access and use CIS. Despite this, the smallholder farmers were confronted with key barriers in their uptake and utilization of CIS. These were the timeliness of CIS (73%), a lack of weather symbols in the forecasts (65%), and inadequate information on seasonal forecasts for long-term planning (61%). The study concluded that the motivations for smallholder farmers using CIS in the study district may vary depending on their context, goals, and challenges. However, the general motivation is to enhance smallholder farmers’ farm planning and risk management by using weather and climate forecasts to make better decisions on crop selection, planting dates, input use, pest and disease control, irrigation, harvesting, and marketing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100482"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000372/pdfft?md5=cd49c7496027040975443254cc981e42&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000372-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the impact of ambient temperature on respiratory diseases admissions, length of Stay, and hospitalization costs in Lanzhou City, based on distributed lag non-linear model","authors":"Xusong Zhang ,&nbsp;Ke Xu ,&nbsp;Qian Li,&nbsp;Anning Zhu,&nbsp;Jingze Yu,&nbsp;Miaoxin Liu,&nbsp;Jiyuan Dong,&nbsp;Rentong Chen,&nbsp;Li Ma,&nbsp;Ye Ruan","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100481","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study was to explore the relationships between daily mean temperature and hospital admissions, length of stay and hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases, and to estimate the risk effects and burden of disease. A time-series analysis was conducted by distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to explore the exposure-lag-response relationships between daily mean temperature and hospital admissions, length of stay, and hospitalization costs for respiratory diseases. The total cumulative exposure between the daily admissions, length of stay and hospitalization costs of respiratory diseases and the daily mean temperature showed significant nonlinear relationships, all with a shape approximately “W”. Extremely low temperature presented the greatest risk to respiratory diseases of admissions, length of stay and hospitalization costs, with the relative risks of 1.66 (95 % CI:1.32–2.09), 1.71 (95 % CI:1.33–2.20), 2.09 (95 % CI:1.53–2.84), respectively. The risks caused by low temperatures have delayed effect, capable of generating higher risks within lag 21 days. In contrast, the effects of high temperatures on the three outcomes only in the short term. The relative risks of exposure to extremely cold weather for elderly patients were the greatest, which were 2.47 (95 % CI:1.89–3.24), 2.11 (95 % CI:1.58–2.81) and 2.59 (95 % CI:1.81–3.70), respectively. In Lanzhou city, both low and high temperatures posed a certain risk to the hospital admissions, length of stay and hospitalization costs of respiratory diseases. Cold temperature exposure is the main risk factor to increase the risks of the three outcomes, and its risks have significant lag effect. Elderly patients are vulnerable to cold temperature exposure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100481"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000360/pdfft?md5=88e48287c4344d0853f09570c9b6eccb&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000360-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140909868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the usability and value of a climate service in the wine sector","authors":"Fatemeh Khosravi ,&nbsp;Marta Bruno Soares ,&nbsp;Marta Teixeira ,&nbsp;Natacha Fontes ,&nbsp;Antonio Graca","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change can significantly affect and influence, both positively and negatively, the wine sector. In this context, the adoption of timely, cost-effective adaptation strategies may contribute to reduce such risks, maximise opportunities, and enhancing the sector’s resilience to changing climatic conditions. Climate services involve the production and use of climate information to support decision-makers adapting to climate variability and change. Assessing the value and benefits of using climate services constitutes a critical area of research and can help climate service providers identify any barriers in their development, uptake, and use. The climate service developed in this research benefitted from a co-production approach with a Portuguese Wine company − SOGRAPE. In this paper, we aim to assess the usability and value of the climate service co-developed with SOGRAPE and identify possible barriers that limited the tool’s usability and value. Engagement with SOGRAPE users was pursued based on mixed methods approach throughout the various stages of co-development and testing of the tool. The results show that the data provided in the Dashboard was perceived as reliable and legitimate. However, the saliency of the Dashboard was questioned, and some recommendations proposed to increase its saliency and overall usability. More importantly, SOGRAPE users were not able to use the climate information provided in the tool due to a number of barriers which are also reported in this study. The findings and recommendations from this study will help inform the design, development and usability of other climate services within and beyond the wine sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100496"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000517/pdfft?md5=15205e2a2701899e9049986b47fa535f&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000517-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141290178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices using machine learning: A prime exploratory survey","authors":"Freddy Noma ,&nbsp;Suresh Babu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper aim and novelty is the development of technology-based tools able of providing realistic insights on farmers’ future adaptation decisions by developing an ML algorithm to predict Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices and highlight modeling challenges to account for. And proposing a theoretical approach that grounds the selection of data (i.e. input and response variables) with well stablished theories on adaptation decision making process; with the aim of demonstrating ways of improving data science and ML publication quality in the field of agricultural economics. Data used are farmers’ socio-economic characteristics, farms’ features, agro-ecology’s features, climate indicators (temperature, rain, etc.), etc. In this paper, the optimized Gradient Boosting ML was trained and tested using households’ level data from Rakai district in Central Region of Uganda. The modeling approach was framed in climate adaptation analytical frameworks. Data extracted allows generating CSA clusters giving two response variables (i.e. <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>y</mi><mrow><mi>C</mi><mi>S</mi><mi>A</mi><mi>_</mi><mi>p</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>y</mi><mrow><mi>C</mi><mi>S</mi><mi>A</mi><mi>_</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>u</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>), used separately to train two different algorithms. The developed CSA predictive algorithm demonstrates that adaptation practices can be predicted using households’ level parameters. And both models are revealed to have fair performance metrics, with <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>y</mi><mrow><mi>C</mi><mi>S</mi><mi>A</mi><mi>_</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>u</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> algorithm reaching up to 60% of accuracy. To further improve accuracy scores, deep-learning algorithms are suggested in future research. The developed CSA prediction algorithm could be used at both households and value chain levels, to select appropriate adaptation strategies, to plan adaptation, to estimate adaptation costs and develop investment’ plans.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100484"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000396/pdfft?md5=0a85beccc3d1c01f3574e52ea9be4664&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000396-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140879724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A statewide, weather-regime based stochastic weather generator for process-based bottom-up climate risk assessments in California – Part I: Model evaluation","authors":"Nasser Najibi ,&nbsp;Alejandro J. Perez ,&nbsp;Wyatt Arnold ,&nbsp;Andrew Schwarz ,&nbsp;Romain Maendly ,&nbsp;Scott Steinschneider","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100489","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study is the first of a two-part series presenting a novel weather regime-based stochastic weather generator to support bottom-up climate vulnerability assessments of water systems in California. In Part 1 of this series, we present the details of model development and validation. The model is based on the identification and simulation of weather regimes, or large-scale patterns of atmospheric flow, which are then used to condition the simulation of local, daily weather at a 6 km resolution across the state. We conduct a thorough validation of a baseline, 1000-year model simulation to evaluate its ability to accurately simulate daily precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature at various spatial scales (grid cell, river basin) and temporal scales (daily, event-based, monthly, annual, inter-annual to decadal). Results show that the model effectively reproduces a large suite of climate statistics at these scales across the entire state, including moments, spells, dry and wet extremes, and extreme hot and cold periods. Moreover, the model successfully maintains spatial correlations and inter-variable relationships, enabling the use of model simulations in hydrologic and water resources analyses that span multiple watersheds across California. The weather generator can simulate physically plausible extreme events (e.g., multi-day extreme precipitation and severe drought) that extend beyond the worst case conditions observed historically, independent of climate change. Thus, the baseline simulation can be used to understand the impacts of natural climate variability on both flood and drought risk in regional water systems. Scenarios of climate change are discussed in Part 2.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100489"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072400044X/pdfft?md5=ad013a1ec283b2ae097b7f24b0aedf03&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072400044X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141083730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal fragmentation of the energy demand in Europe: Impact of climate change on the maneuverability of energy system","authors":"Hajar Filahi ,&nbsp;Hiba Omrani ,&nbsp;Sandra Claudel ,&nbsp;Philippe Drobinski","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The energy demand in Europe is projected to be affected by climate change in the future. The heating needs are expected to decrease while the cooling needs are expected to increase.The study investigates the impact of climate change on the temporal fragmentation of heating and to a lesser extent cooling needs and its implication on the energy power system. Ten bias-corrected and downscaled simulations from CMIP6 at 25 <span><math><mrow><mo>×</mo></mrow></math></span> 25 km² horizontal resolution over Europe have been used to estimate change in heating and cooling energy needs under four anthropogenic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), using heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) as proxies. Consistent with already published literature, here updated using the last CMIP6 simulation ensemble, the results show a large decrease of HDD over Europe and an increase of CDD under all scenarios. However, the study goes one step further by showing a fragmentation of the periods of heating needs during winter in the future which can potentially lead to a fragmentation of heating energy demand. In the worst-case scenario, periods of heating needs could be separated by up to 7 days, 9 times per winter. The cooling needs in summer are expected to be more frequent and last longer compared to the present climate. The fragmentation of temperature-sensitive energy needs for heating and to a lesser extent for cooling are expected to have an operational and economical impact on the balancing of the energy system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100469"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000244/pdfft?md5=bf07c4807ffffbddaaaa884d2e147953&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000244-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140346685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thinking systemically about climate services: Using archetypes to reveal maladaptation","authors":"Riccardo Biella ,&nbsp;Maurizio Mazzoleni ,&nbsp;Luigia Brandimarte ,&nbsp;Giuliano Di Baldassarre","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100490","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those systems are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic and socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach can make the difference between adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on the use of climate services, often touted as no-regret solutions, and their potential to generate maladaptation. We explored the interactions between climate services and adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types of natural hazards and characterized by a range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how climate services can play a role in both producing and preventing maladaptation. The dynamics explored through system archetypes are: i) “fixes that fail”, where short-sighted solutions fail to address the root causes of a problem; ii) “band aid solutions”, where the benefits brought about in the short-term come at the expenses of delaying long-term adaptive actions; and iii) “success to the successful”, where some groups increasingly benefit from climate services at the expenses of other groups. We demonstrate how these dynamics constitute maladaptive processes, as well as identifying the tools and theories that can be used in this type of assessment. Finally, we provide a framework and recommendations to guide the ex-ante assessment of maladaptation risk when designing and implementing climate services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100490"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000451/pdfft?md5=d5642a3424f15dc5fa5088398324a5e9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000451-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141241362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-producing an urban heat climate service for UK cities: A case study of Belfast, Northern Ireland","authors":"Victoria Ramsey ,&nbsp;Claire Scannell ,&nbsp;Tyrone Dunbar ,&nbsp;Michael Sanderson ,&nbsp;Jason A. Lowe","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>UK city decision makers in local governments are coming under increasing pressure to plan for extreme heat events due to the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. While these local authorities are aware of the potential impacts of climate change, many highlight the need for more robust evidence of local climate risks to inform climate planning. Characterising the current and future spatial variability of heat risks can help city decision makers identify vulnerable populations, inform planning, and prioritise action. This paper explores the co-development of a prototype urban heat climate service for UK cities with stakeholders in the pilot city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. This two-tier service uses the latest high-resolution UK Climate Projections to assess changes in impact relevant heat indicators summarised in a bespoke set of factsheets for building awareness (Tier 1). Tier 2 combines this information with socio-economic and built environment data to provide geospatial, decision-relevant, heat risk information at the sub-city scale using a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) and communicated using StoryMaps. This work highlights the importance of considering the different components of risk (hazard, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) when planning interventions for extreme heat to ensure local vulnerabilities are adequately addressed. It also highlights the minimum level of heat risk to which we are now committed locally under current emission pledges. This work also explores the lessons learnt in co-production, the impact this service has had on local decision making and explores options for upscaling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100464"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000190/pdfft?md5=5ac628a96d01b00e99b6fca84506de6a&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000190-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140296897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the perceptions of flood and effect of adoption of adaptation strategies on income of informal settlements of Mamelodi in South Africa","authors":"Y.S. Nyam ,&nbsp;N.T.S. Modiba ,&nbsp;T.O. Ojo ,&nbsp;A.A. Ogundeji ,&nbsp;C.C. Okolie ,&nbsp;O.T. Selelo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Extreme weather events are being experienced all over the world because of climate change, posing challenges for individuals and households who rely on agricultural operations as their major source of livelihood. Household-level adaptation is an efficient way of dealing with global climate change. As such, this study aims to examine the perception of informal settlers to flood risk and their adoption of adaptation strategies to flood. This study applied the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to identify factors influencing the perception of flooding on community members and probit regression to identify the factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies to floods and examined the impact of the adoption of adaptation strategies on income in Eerste Fabriek informal settlement in Mamelodi using two-step quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of fractional response model. Our results show that community members are perceptive of floods and their impact on the environment and their livelihoods, and on average, they believe flood impact is significant. Age, marital status, education, employment status, income, and household size are demographic factors that tend to influence their perception of the impact of flood events. Access to institutional facilities such as health and recreational facilities was also a significant factor in how community members adapt to the impact of floods. Timely healthcare access services are a significant precursor for people to form their perception, which is intended to help them adapt appropriately to situations as health is wealth. Community members' perceptions and adaptive capacity can be improved through policies that foster the adoption of effective adaptation strategies. Community-based adaptation strategies are necessary for involving all stakeholders and necessary for mitigating the effects of flooding.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100468"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000232/pdfft?md5=62ffbfa2535893579ef999687571d238&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000232-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140195690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}