Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Thinking systemically about climate services: Using archetypes to reveal maladaptation","authors":"Riccardo Biella ,&nbsp;Maurizio Mazzoleni ,&nbsp;Luigia Brandimarte ,&nbsp;Giuliano Di Baldassarre","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100490","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those systems are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic and socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach can make the difference between adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on the use of climate services, often touted as no-regret solutions, and their potential to generate maladaptation. We explored the interactions between climate services and adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types of natural hazards and characterized by a range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how climate services can play a role in both producing and preventing maladaptation. The dynamics explored through system archetypes are: i) “fixes that fail”, where short-sighted solutions fail to address the root causes of a problem; ii) “band aid solutions”, where the benefits brought about in the short-term come at the expenses of delaying long-term adaptive actions; and iii) “success to the successful”, where some groups increasingly benefit from climate services at the expenses of other groups. We demonstrate how these dynamics constitute maladaptive processes, as well as identifying the tools and theories that can be used in this type of assessment. Finally, we provide a framework and recommendations to guide the ex-ante assessment of maladaptation risk when designing and implementing climate services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100490"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000451/pdfft?md5=d5642a3424f15dc5fa5088398324a5e9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000451-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141241362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-producing an urban heat climate service for UK cities: A case study of Belfast, Northern Ireland","authors":"Victoria Ramsey ,&nbsp;Claire Scannell ,&nbsp;Tyrone Dunbar ,&nbsp;Michael Sanderson ,&nbsp;Jason A. Lowe","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>UK city decision makers in local governments are coming under increasing pressure to plan for extreme heat events due to the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. While these local authorities are aware of the potential impacts of climate change, many highlight the need for more robust evidence of local climate risks to inform climate planning. Characterising the current and future spatial variability of heat risks can help city decision makers identify vulnerable populations, inform planning, and prioritise action. This paper explores the co-development of a prototype urban heat climate service for UK cities with stakeholders in the pilot city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. This two-tier service uses the latest high-resolution UK Climate Projections to assess changes in impact relevant heat indicators summarised in a bespoke set of factsheets for building awareness (Tier 1). Tier 2 combines this information with socio-economic and built environment data to provide geospatial, decision-relevant, heat risk information at the sub-city scale using a Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) and communicated using StoryMaps. This work highlights the importance of considering the different components of risk (hazard, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) when planning interventions for extreme heat to ensure local vulnerabilities are adequately addressed. It also highlights the minimum level of heat risk to which we are now committed locally under current emission pledges. This work also explores the lessons learnt in co-production, the impact this service has had on local decision making and explores options for upscaling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100464"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000190/pdfft?md5=5ac628a96d01b00e99b6fca84506de6a&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000190-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140296897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the perceptions of flood and effect of adoption of adaptation strategies on income of informal settlements of Mamelodi in South Africa","authors":"Y.S. Nyam ,&nbsp;N.T.S. Modiba ,&nbsp;T.O. Ojo ,&nbsp;A.A. Ogundeji ,&nbsp;C.C. Okolie ,&nbsp;O.T. Selelo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Extreme weather events are being experienced all over the world because of climate change, posing challenges for individuals and households who rely on agricultural operations as their major source of livelihood. Household-level adaptation is an efficient way of dealing with global climate change. As such, this study aims to examine the perception of informal settlers to flood risk and their adoption of adaptation strategies to flood. This study applied the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to identify factors influencing the perception of flooding on community members and probit regression to identify the factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies to floods and examined the impact of the adoption of adaptation strategies on income in Eerste Fabriek informal settlement in Mamelodi using two-step quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of fractional response model. Our results show that community members are perceptive of floods and their impact on the environment and their livelihoods, and on average, they believe flood impact is significant. Age, marital status, education, employment status, income, and household size are demographic factors that tend to influence their perception of the impact of flood events. Access to institutional facilities such as health and recreational facilities was also a significant factor in how community members adapt to the impact of floods. Timely healthcare access services are a significant precursor for people to form their perception, which is intended to help them adapt appropriately to situations as health is wealth. Community members' perceptions and adaptive capacity can be improved through policies that foster the adoption of effective adaptation strategies. Community-based adaptation strategies are necessary for involving all stakeholders and necessary for mitigating the effects of flooding.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100468"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000232/pdfft?md5=62ffbfa2535893579ef999687571d238&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000232-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140195690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Groundwater development and management constraints in drought prone Chiredzi and Zvishavane Districts, Zimbabwe","authors":"Pascal Manyakaidze ,&nbsp;Regis Musavengane ,&nbsp;Mulala Simatele","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Communities in drought-prone areas continued to fall into new vulnerability traps due to increasing water demand and stress. The study assessed groundwater development and management constraints in the Chiredzi and Zvishavane districts of Zimbabwe. Groundwater development and management activities implemented in the study area were supported by the Government of Zimbabwe, development partners, humanitarian agencies, private sector corporate social responsibility, and individual households. Interpretivism and realism philosophical positionalities were employed in the study. Whilst interpretivism’s inductive approach enabled an in-depth qualitative methodology and understanding of the groundwater constraints, the direct realism provided quantitatively driven scientific and statistical data to answer the research questions exhaustively. Quantitative data was gathered through a household questionnaire administered to randomly selected respondents. Qualitative data was gathered using focus group discussions, key informant interviews, direct field observations and measurements. Respondents to the key informant interview were drawn from district-level government officials, local authorities, traditional leaders, village pump minders and water point committee members.</p><p>Due to climate change, communities have experienced an increase in the decline in groundwater levels during the dry season evidenced by demand surpassing supply. Temperature increase and rainfall decline experienced by 97%, and 73% of respondents from Chiredzi and Zvishavane districts, respectively, resulted in increased withdrawal and reduced groundwater recharge. Participants revealed that groundwater withdrawal is on the increase while recharge is declining as evidenced by the increase in conflicts at waterpoints. The 85% coverage by low groundwater-yielding basement hydrogeological formation suggested a slight reduction in groundwater recharge due to reduced rainfall and increased community vulnerability to drought. Village Pump Minders and Water Point Committees experienced operational challenges that affected the maintenance of groundwater sources. This was mainly due to the incapacitation of local institutions in terms of financial resources, equipment, and skills. The study recommends a groundwater replenishment model to improve groundwater aquifer recharge. Strengthening of local institutions improves the management of groundwater using integrated water resources management (IWRM) framework that promotes coordination between competing uses.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100467"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000220/pdfft?md5=5a41bb75619c3b3bbde405efbad51561&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000220-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140191269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change impacts on the tourism sector of the Spanish Mediterranean coast: Medium-term projections for a climate services tool","authors":"Alba de la Vara ,&nbsp;William Cabos ,&nbsp;Claudia Gutiérrez ,&nbsp;Jorge Olcina ,&nbsp;Alba Matamoros ,&nbsp;Francisco Pastor ,&nbsp;Samira Khodayar ,&nbsp;Maite Ferrando","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Mediterranean Sea is a climate change hotspot since it provides a magnified warming signal. Heavily populated areas (e.g., Spanish Mediterranean coasts) are vulnerable to negative socio-economic impacts. This is particularly important for climate-related economic sectors such as coastal tourism, the focus of this paper. To promote a sustainable development of these activities and provide key information to stakeholders, it is necessary to anticipate changes in climate. Thus, it is fundamental to use climate modelling tools which account for air-sea interactions, which largely determine the climate signal of the Mediterranean coasts. In this paper, a set of regional air-sea coupled climate model simulations from Med-CORDEX are used to (i) study the climatic conditions on the Spanish Mediterranean coasts in the next decade(s) and (ii) to assess the possibility of extending the coastal tourist season towards spring-fall. We show that climate conditions are getting warmer and drier in the area, especially in summer. Heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more frequent. Thermal discomfort will increase in summer and summer conditions are extending towards spring and fall. Our work remarks the urgent need of adaptation measures of the sector, including the extension of the high tourist season to spring-fall, especially in the long term. We make a special effort to compile a set of adaptation measures for stakeholders. This study is part of the project ECOAZUL-MED, which aims to create a climate service tool to optimize the management of relevant sectors of the blue economy in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100466"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000219/pdfft?md5=ae96dbc2367539ece664018265bbc4c0&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000219-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140191268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of climate change on food security of smallholder farmers in Shashogo district, central Ethiopia","authors":"Tamrat Lolaso ,&nbsp;Engdawork Assef ,&nbsp;Teshale Woldeamanuel","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate variability/climate change has become the biggest challenge to food security. Objective of this study is to determine the impact of climate change/variability on food security. The study utilized primary and secondary data sources obtained through household surveys. The result shows that rainfall in Belg varies greatly, suggesting that seasonal harvests in Belg are failing, leading to a decline in production levels in certain quantities and limited food availability. Rainfall in Kiremt fluctuates moderately, while annual rainfall has the lowest fluctuations. Crop prices increase every year in recently. This change in agricultural crop yields was due to climate change manifested in price volatility. Consumers have been adversely affected by an increase in crop prices. As reported FGD group that crop yields have been declining from year to year consequences of this are fluctuations in upcoming and late season rainfall, an unusual rise in temperature, flooding and the spread of the American warm, which the community to shift their livelihood to non-agricultural activities. Next to crop farming, raising livestock is one of the main sources of income for rural communities; nevertheless, the productivity and stocks of livestock may be impacted by climate change. Food stability is impacted not only by climate variability but also by increasingly frequent and intense extreme climate events that affect availability, access, and use. Stakeholders who would take steps to combat a loss of agricultural production in the Belg season were presented with the study’s results.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100465"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000207/pdfft?md5=8e0503aedd39bc1dfa474f94b2a8a3b0&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000207-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140187853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A drought monitoring and early warning service for food security in South Africa","authors":"Vasileios Pavlidis ,&nbsp;Mahlatse Kganyago ,&nbsp;Mxolisi Mukhawana ,&nbsp;Thomas Alexandridis ,&nbsp;Ines Cherif ,&nbsp;Giovanni Laneve ,&nbsp;Riccardo Orsi ,&nbsp;Stergios Kartsios ,&nbsp;Maria Chara Karypidou ,&nbsp;Ioannis Sofiadis ,&nbsp;Eleni Katragkou","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper we present an operational system for drought monitoring and early warning over South Africa-Lesotho. The indicators used for the alert issuance are based on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological indices, assembled by satellite and reanalysis raw data, to cover for all aspects of drought. The service is operationally updated every 10 days and has a spatial resolution of 10 Km. A severe drought period for South Africa covering the time period 2017–2020 was used to test the performance of the drought system. Our analysis indicated that the service is useful, providing sufficient warning on the onsets of and duration of droughts. Comparison of our results with a South African national drought service indicates a very good agreement in early warning messaging. The service is particularly user friendly and easily transferable to any region worldwide.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100463"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000189/pdfft?md5=a145e1a7a86fd05feeb7bc2debce9f69&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000189-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140138698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The performance of Climate Information Service in delivering scientific, local, and hybrid weather forecasts: A study case in Bangladesh","authors":"Samuel J. Sutanto ,&nbsp;Spyridon Paparrizos ,&nbsp;Uthpal Kumar ,&nbsp;Dilip K. Datta ,&nbsp;Fulco Ludwig","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Access to reliable and skillful Climate Information Service (CIS) is crucial for smallholder farmers in Bangladesh to mitigate the impacts of rainfall variability and extremes. This study aims to systematically evaluate the performance of CIS in providing Scientific Forecast (SF) and Local Forecast (LF) to smallholders in Bangladesh. The results were then compared with farmers’ perceptions of the forecast accuracy. Additionally, the skill of a simple hybrid forecast (HF), which is an integrated system of SF and LF, was assessed using the ERA5 and ground observation datasets as benchmarks. The SF and LF data were obtained from the meteoblue hindcast and from the interview, respectively. The results indicate that, overall, LF exhibits slightly higher skill compared to SF when evaluated against the ERA5 dataset. The forecast performance, however, declines by almost half when the ground-based observations are used, associated with high false alarms. Farmers, on the other hand, perceived SF to possess superior performance compared to LF. This study demonstrates that combining the SF and LF into a simple HF yields higher forecast skill than either individual forecast, highlighting the importance of HF to deliver a reliable and trustworthy weather forecast.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100459"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000141/pdfft?md5=4a7796fef2a00b4245510b18f8dcf867&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000141-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140062373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Valuation of Climate Services for Viticulturists: Tackling fungal diseases","authors":"Christine Nam ,&nbsp;Laura Teresa Massano ,&nbsp;Antonio Graca ,&nbsp;Rossana Cotroneo ,&nbsp;Alessandro Dell’Aquila ,&nbsp;Federico Caboni","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100456","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Viticulturists developing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change, which affects a grapevine’s physiology and wine typicity, can benefit from climate services. Climate services translate physically based variables, such as temperature and precipitation, into actionable, decision relevant bioclimatic indicators, such as Spring Rain, Heat Stress Days, and Warm Spell Duration. These bioclimatic indicators enable the mitigation of fungal diseases, specifically downy and powdery mildew, as well as sunburn. Accurate seasonal forecasts of these bioclimatic indicators can help farmers with viticulture, labor, and stock management, as well as improve the yield and value of wine-quality grapes. Seasonal forecasts of these indicators are available on the MED-GOLD project’s dashboard. This study determines an annual service fee to access these forecasts on the dashboard. The annual fee accounts for the seasonal forecast accuracy over part of the Douro wine region of Portugal, as well as the potential savings and losses of micro (<span><math><mrow><mo>⩽</mo></mrow></math></span>1 ha) holding grape growers. The revenue generated from this climate service fee exceeds the cost of dashboard maintenance by nearly 10 times, even with a fee which is less than half of the potential savings of the micro holding farmer.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100456"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000116/pdfft?md5=b6e152c6630903d8b87c60429e1dd607&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000116-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139992444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prospective regional analysis of olive and olive fly in Andalusia under climate change using physiologically based demographic modeling powered by cloud computing","authors":"Luigi Ponti ,&nbsp;Andrew Paul Gutierrez ,&nbsp;Christos Giannakopoulos ,&nbsp;Konstantinos V. Varotsos ,&nbsp;Javier López Nevado ,&nbsp;Silvia López Feria ,&nbsp;Freddy Wilmer Rivas González ,&nbsp;Federico Caboni ,&nbsp;Federica Stocchino ,&nbsp;Adolfo Rosati ,&nbsp;Damiano Marchionni ,&nbsp;José Ricardo Cure ,&nbsp;Daniel Rodríguez ,&nbsp;Marta Terrado ,&nbsp;Matteo De Felice ,&nbsp;Alessandro Dell'Aquila ,&nbsp;Sandro Calmanti ,&nbsp;Ricardo Arjona ,&nbsp;Michael Sanderson","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Spanish region of Andalusia is the world-leading olive oil producer. Its olive-dominated landscapes are among the most biodiverse drylands of the globe and prospectively among the areas most affected by climate change. This analysis used physiologically based demographic modeling (PBDM) to assess the impact of climate change on the olive/olive fly system of Andalusia. The analysis was implemented on cloud computing, allowing PBDM models to be run from any computer connected to the internet, to interface with state-of-the-art climatic drivers, and to scale efficiently with increasing computational loads and user requests. Findings include that chilling required for olive blooming will decrease in large areas of the Andalusian provinces of Jaen, Cordoba, and Sevilla, with some areas not meeting the minimum chilling threshold and some accumulating no chilling by the end of the century under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. Olive blooming will occur up to five weeks earlier in the Jaen, Cordoba, Sevilla, and Granada provinces, but olive yield is expected to increase or remain stable. Olive fly infestation will decrease with climate change, with infestations below the reference economic threshold of 4 % towards the end of the century in some areas under high GHG emission scenario. Measures to adapt Andalusian olive systems to climate change include: selecting olive cultivars with lower chilling requirements; implementing cover crops to enhance water use efficiency under increased CO₂ concentration and uncertain precipitation projections; and targeting the spring generation of the fly and diversifying the olive landscape to reduce infestation levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100455"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000104/pdfft?md5=e2cf5180c28427403c6c685b1553854e&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000104-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139942152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}