Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Decreasing psychological distance to climate adaptation through serious gaming: Minions of Disruptions","authors":"Minja Sillanpää ,&nbsp;Julia Eichhorn ,&nbsp;Sirkku Juhola","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A gap between knowledge and adaptive action remains and psychological distancing has been proposed to explain peoples’ inaction. This presents a challenge to climate change communication and particularly to the conventional ways of providing scientific information. Serious games have proliferated in the last ten years with a focus on improving the way in which climate change is communicated with different types of audiences. However, empirical evidence for whether serious games focusing on the local understanding of barriers to action offers an opportunity to reduce the psychological distancing from climate change is lacking. This paper presents a case study of Minions of Disruptions, a collaborative board game developed by the Dutch NGO Day of Adaptation, which gamifies climate action by letting the players choose their own adaptation strategy and co-create their organizational story that is based on their local knowledge. The results of this paper show that the game experience succeeds in reducing psychological distance and cultivates agency. This finding provides a pathway toward communication strategies that provide a safe and fun environment in which participants interact to identify organizational and community-based issue areas where more resilience can be built.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100429"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000912/pdfft?md5=545836c5a1098cc737e4667bacf8991d&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000912-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ICT promotes smallholder farmers’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptive action to climate change: Empirical research on China's economically developed rural areas","authors":"Yu Yang ,&nbsp;Yang Zhang ,&nbsp;Benz Xinqi Zhu ,&nbsp;Jiajun Zhou ,&nbsp;Yang Liu ,&nbsp;Dongxia Gao ,&nbsp;Johannes Sauer","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the impact of technological advancements, such as ICT, on the climate change adaptation actions of smallholder farmers is crucial for comprehending their adaptive strategies. This study utilizes data from a survey of 2230 smallholder farmer households in the developed rural region of the Yangtze River Delta in China to examine the factors influencing their perceived self-efficacy and actions to adapt to climate change. Using binary logit regression and OLS models, we identify the role that determinants of ICT use play in shaping smallholders' perceived self-efficacy and adaptive action. Our findings corroborate that perceived self-efficacy is a robust, positive predictor of adaptive action. The data indicate that the sole presence of adaptation leaders predominantly enhances perceived self-efficacy. In contrast, adaptive investments at the village level are primarily associated with an increase in adaptive actions. However, peer effects may diminish smallholder perceived self-efficacy and adaptive action. In addition, our study indicates that while ICT has not currently supplanted traditional social networks in influencing smallholder climate change adaptation perceived self-efficacy and adaptive action, we cannot dismiss the potential substitution effect. We also clarify why the peer effects of traditional networks have starkly contrasting impacts in developed and less-developed rural regions in China. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of incorporating objective influencing factors of smallholder adaptation actions and their effects on subjective perceived self-efficacy into future climate change adaptation plans and policies to foster adaptation actions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100431"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000936/pdfft?md5=79ffcdde5923075e95231ba1c730cf64&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000936-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seamlessly combined historical and projected daily meteorological datasets for impact studies in Central Europe: The FORESEE v4.0 and the FORESEE-HUN v1.0","authors":"Anikó Kern ,&nbsp;Laura Dobor ,&nbsp;Roland Hollós ,&nbsp;Hrvoje Marjanović ,&nbsp;Csaba Zsolt Torma ,&nbsp;Anna Kis ,&nbsp;Nándor Fodor ,&nbsp;Zoltán Barcza","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100443","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The FORESEE is an open access, climatological database for Central Europe containing observed and projected meteorological data for the 1951–2100 period. As a climate service, FORESEE disseminates basic meteorological variables at a daily time step with a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution including maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, incoming shortwave solar radiation and daylight vapour pressure deficit. The future climate in FORESEE v4.0 and FORESEE-HUN v1.0 is projected by 14 regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX database using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on RCP4.5 the country-specific results indicate similar projected mean changes in annual mean temperature (1.5–1.7 °C) but considerable differences in precipitation (from −1.6 to 6.9%) in the region for 2071–2100 relative to 1991–2020. We present two case studies to demonstrate the applicability of FORESEE in climate change impact studies using the ensemble approach. Climate change induced negative weather effect (15.4% and 28.9% mean loss for 2071–2100 according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) might dominate the future winter wheat yields in Hungary that is superimposed to the overall trend determined by other factors. The projections provide consistent results about the mean advance in the start of the growing season for forests in Hungary up to 2100 with ensemble mean of 9.1 days (RCP4.5) and 19.8 days (RCP8.5). We also demonstrate that the representative model selection method might lead to misleading results in impact studies that should be considered. The updated FORESEE is a way forward in the dissemination of policy-relevant essential climate data in Central Europe.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100443"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072300105X/pdfft?md5=a34d12845a9886670b99f87eb037f145&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072300105X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stakeholder engagement in agro-climate service planning","authors":"Thi Thu Giang Luu ,&nbsp;Eike Luedeling ,&nbsp;Cory Whitney ,&nbsp;Lisa Biber-Freudenberger","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impacts of weather, climate variability and climate change on agricultural production underline the increasing importance of actionable agro-climatic services. Transitioning from supply-driven provision of climate and agricultural information to demand-driven agro-climate services (ACS) at scale cannot be accomplished in a top-down manner but requires the engagement of diverse stakeholders in all phases of ACS development and implementation. This requires methods and tools to handle the diversity and dynamics of interactions between relevant stakeholders, including during the pre-financing stage of the ACS. We propose a transparent method to identify and engage stakeholders in the ACS planning phase and demonstrate this method as part of the socio-economic development planning process in Dien Bien, Vietnam. We find that considering stakeholder attributes such as availability, experience, gender, expertise, benefits and costs for each stakeholder, interest, influence, relevance, and attitude, combined with insights about the socio-economic development planning processes, is crucial for the engagement of stakeholders. We also find that facilitating collaborative interaction between ACS stakeholders is pivotal in supporting the planning of demand-driven ACS. Our methodology for engaging stakeholders is transferrable to designing and planning other interventions in complex systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100432"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000948/pdfft?md5=31681e5ed16538f53b6b7c4a21b0f457&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000948-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving climate risk preparedness - Railroads in Norway","authors":"Asbjørn Torvanger ,&nbsp;Charlotte Dyvik Henke ,&nbsp;Iulia Marginean","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100439","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Climate change affects all sectors of society due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Extreme weather events are already more frequent and intense, generating additional costs for businesses nationally and globally. Climate risk disclosure and management can be challenging due to the complexity of climate impacts and unpredictability of extreme events’ occurrence and location. To address the need for a systematic approach to manage physical climate change, this paper presents a ‘preparedness framework’ for a comprehensive physical climate risk assessment, which is inspired by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures’ (TCFD) framework and based on interviews with representatives from the financial sector in Norway and Sweden on their management of climate risks. We analyze railroads in Norway as a case study due to the sector’s sensitivity to flooding events and heat stress. After assessing Bane NOR’s management of risk associated with flooding and heat stress, we discuss potential improvements regarding knowledge, strategy, management, and tools and metrics at a general level, emphasizing the benefits of improving capacity to handle climate change and the importance of contingency plans. The preparedness framework has helped identify strategies and actions that can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. We suggest that this checklist is sufficiently general to be applicable for other sectors and countries.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical Implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Transportation is one of the sectors that may be significantly affected by climate change, and this includes railroads and train travel. Heavy rain events, dry spells, extreme temperatures, and freeze–thaw events can cause problems for railroad operations. We have therefore chosen railroads in Norway, with Bane NOR as the state-owned organization responsible for the administration of the network, as an insightful case for examining the climate risk and vulnerability to climate change. We introduce a ‘preparedness framework’ as a tool for identifying and handling climate risk. The preparedness framework aims to combine science-based information with the user context and their needs according to their activity and vulnerability to climate change impacts. The framework can highlight Bane NOR’s general potential to reduce vulnerability and improve resilience to withstand negative impacts caused by climate change. Building resilience is paramount to business continuity, and involves climate stress-testing, precautionary action, better information carrying less uncertainty, capacity building, and contingency plans in the case of climate-related disturbances affecting train operations. This requires efficient monitoring, closer attention to weather forecasts, good maintenance, as well as implementing measures such as lowering the speed limit for trains in high-risk situations. Contingency plans include ","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100439"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723001012/pdfft?md5=270a792eeca388ce02cbc784a56ae178&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723001012-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projection and identification of vulnerable areas due to heavy snowfall using machine learning and K-means clustering with RCP scenarios","authors":"Moon-Soo Song ,&nbsp;Jae-Joon Lee ,&nbsp;Hong-Sic Yun ,&nbsp;Sang-Guk Yum","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Heavy snowfall is a natural disaster that causes extensive damage in South Korea. Therefore, predicting heavy snowfall occurrence, identifying vulnerable areas, and establishing response plans to reduce risk are crucial. In this study, to project heavy snowfall, meteorological and geographic data from the past 30 years were collected, and four machine learning algorithms were trained and compared: multiple linear regression, support vector regression, random forest regressor (RFR), and extreme gradient boosting. We observed that the RFR model (R² = 0.64) demonstrated the most optimal performance in projecting snowfall compared to other models. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario data was input into the RFR model to generate projection data up to 2100. Projection results of more than 48.2 cm based on heavy snowfall events in the past 20 years were observed 17 times in RCP2.6, 19 times in RCP4.5, 16 times in RCP6.0, and 17 times in RCP8.5. The annual GIS-based projected snowfall images for the RCP8.5 scenario were classified into five distinct groups using K-means clustering. These groups were then further divided based on the vulnerability of regions, including Gangwon-do, Jeollabuk-do, and northern Gyeonggi-do. Our study can aid decision-making on policies related to heavy snowfall disaster prevention standards, snow removal plans, budgeting, and the establishment of mid- to long-term climate change adaptation plans for government, public institutions and private organizations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100440"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723001024/pdfft?md5=c55b1148010b855cd1b6ddbdc484d780&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723001024-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139038600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of climate variability on dengue fever risk in central java, Indonesia","authors":"Bima Sakti Satria Wibawa ,&nbsp;Yu-Chun Wang ,&nbsp;Gerry Andhikaputra ,&nbsp;Yu-Kai Lin ,&nbsp;Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh ,&nbsp;Kun-Hsien Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100433","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Dengue fever is a growing concern for public health under future climate variability. This study aims to investigate the dengue fever from 35 cities/counties linked with historical observation and anomaly of weather variables from 4 weather stations in Indonesia.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>We collected monthly surveillance data of dengue fever in central java, temperature and precipitation from Tegal, Semarang, Tunggul wulung and Sleman weather stations, and flood event from 2009 to 2019. The distributed non-linear model was adopted to evaluate the effect of extremes weather variables and anomalies on the dengue risks. The extreme thresholds were defined at 5th and 99th percentile. Random-effects <em>meta</em>-analysis was applied to estimate weather station-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the studied areas.</p></div><div><h3>Result</h3><p>Dengue prevalence rates were higher in the rainy season (Nov–March) compared to dry season (Apr–Oct). Extreme high temperature was positively associated with dengue fever in Semarang with RR of 4.92 (95 % CI: 1.01, 24.0). Extreme low precipitation was positively associated with dengue fever in Tegal with RR of 9.60 (95 % CI: 2.65, 34.6). The risk of dengue fever in western part of Central Java, especially in the Tunggul wulung, was positively associated with extreme high anomaly of precipitation [RR = 4.05 (95 % CI: 1.86, 13.7). Meanwhile, extreme low anomaly of precipitation was positively associated with the risk of dengue fever with RR of 2.75 (95 % CI: 1.75, 4.32) in Semarang.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>These findings highlight the importance of considering weather variability in addressing the risks associated with dengue fever in Central Java, Indonesia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100433"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072300095X/pdfft?md5=29f7284e4df9a2e9cb0e1ffd50fd1565&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072300095X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139038601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating trends and the current climate mean in a changing climate","authors":"Simon C. Scherrer ,&nbsp;Cees de Valk ,&nbsp;Michael Begert ,&nbsp;Stefanie Gubler ,&nbsp;Sven Kotlarski ,&nbsp;Mischa Croci-Maspoli","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100428","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Describing the climate evolution using trend lines and estimating the current climate mean (CCM) on the local scale is an important climate service. For an increasing number of variables, accelerating climate change disqualifies the use of traditional climatological normals and long-term linear trends as CCM estimators. Although several alternatives are available and already in use, there are few comprehensive assessments of the different approaches let alone a consensus for recommending a particular method. Here we evaluate frequently used approaches that use past climate data to estimate the CCM applying several transparent criteria. The performance is assessed in a perfect model framework for the strongly changing Swiss mean temperature 1864–2099 with the centered 30-year mean as CCM benchmark. Short-term linear trends, cubic splines and local linear regression with optimized parameters all provide unbiased CCM estimates for a broad range of climate evolutions and independent of trend magnitudes. To enable broad usability, additional criteria are considered such as a wide applicability to a large number of climate variables and simplicity in terms of use, settings and communication. In the overall assessment, local linear regression emerges as a particularly promising method to describe nonlinear climate trends and to determine the CCM. The criteria-based assessment approach has proven very useful in choosing a method as objectively as possible. We present ideas for modern climate services to complement the toolbox of climate monitoring and encourage the community to develop recommendations at the international level to increase the coherence, objectivity and robustness of climate monitoring products.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100428"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000900/pdfft?md5=548cfc1f75db8fd3dd13d0a47eb3b9c2&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000900-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139033661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Awareness and willingness to engage in climate change adaptation and mitigation: Results from a survey of Mediterranean islanders (Lesvos, Greece)","authors":"Polina N. Tourlioti ,&nbsp;Michelle E. Portman ,&nbsp;Ioannis Pantelakis ,&nbsp;Ourania Tzoraki","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100427","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change has recently received a lot of media attention as a serious phenomenon; as a result of witnessing losses in lives and property, people are becoming increasingly aware of its effects. If climate change issues are misunderstood, people may be less likely to participate in adaptation and mitigation efforts and in the co-production of climate services. This paper contributes to the field of perception studies by providing a case study that could advise local policymaking. Residents of the Greek coastal city of Mytilene (Lesvos Island) were questioned about their opinions on climate change issues. According to the study's findings, respondents recognize the existence of climate change and are likely to take actions to address it. They also acknowledge that various anthropogenic causes, activities, and uses contribute to climate change (i.e., greenhouse gasses, pollution, and transportation). Most participants associate climate change with global warming and sea level rise/coastal erosion, whereas at a local level, they associate it primarily with weather-related phenomena. They are more likely to rely on formal institutions to address climate change challenges but are skeptical of management outcomes. The majority of respondents appear to be positive about making lifestyle changes, and half are willing to pay for mitigation/adaptation measures, primarily to ensure environmental protection and intragenerational justice. Because respondents appear to be unaware of their critical role, authorities must invest in a continuous effort of empowering and engaging them in both adaptation and mitigation practices and include them in the co-production of locally oriented climate services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100427"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000894/pdfft?md5=89228c73561d9afad80ba662291f676d&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000894-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138657210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France","authors":"Qiqi Tao ,&nbsp;Marie Naveau ,&nbsp;Alexis Tantet ,&nbsp;Jordi Badosa ,&nbsp;Philippe Drobinski","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The residential sector is important for the energy transition to combat global warming. Due to the geographical variability of socio-economic factors, the highly dependent residential electricity consumption (REC) should be studied locally. This study aims to project future French REC considering climate change and air-conditioning (AC) scenarios and to quantify its spatial variability. For this purpose, a linear temperature sensitivity model fitted by annual observed electricity consumption data and historical temperature is applied at an intra-regional scale. Future temperature-sensitive REC is computed by applying the model to temperature projections under the climate change pathway RCP8.5. Three AC scenarios are considered: (1) A 100% AC rate scenario assuming that any region partially equipped with AC systems nowadays will have all its households equipped with AC, but local temperature sensitivity will no longer progress; (2) A gradual spreading scenario mimicking “do like my neighbor” behavior; (3) A combination of the two scenarios. Increasing temperatures lead to an overall REC decrease (−8 TWh by 2040 and down to −20 TWh by 2100) with significant spatial variability, which had never been quantified and mapped due to a lack of suited methodology and limited available data at the finest scale. The evolution of REC is modulated by the evolution of cooling needs and the deployment of AC systems to meet those needs. In the first 2 AC scenarios, the decrease of REC due to climate change could be totally offset in the South of France, which would then display an increase in REC. When the 2 AC scenarios are combined, an increase in REC could be seen over the whole country. The most extreme AC scenario shows a potential REC rise due to AC usage by 2% by 2040 and even 32% by 2100, which could be canceled by increasing the cooling setpoint up to 26–27 °C.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100426"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000882/pdfft?md5=5c2bfa8c212a50250d2a17e1f0918868&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000882-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138474758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}