Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Developing user-informed fire weather projections for Canada","authors":"Laura Van Vliet ,&nbsp;Jeremy Fyke ,&nbsp;Sonya Nakoneczny ,&nbsp;Trevor Q. Murdock ,&nbsp;Pouriya Jafarpur","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100505","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100505","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Increasing fire danger due to climate-driven fire weather changes has expanded demand for projections of future wildfire information for Canada. Addressing this need, we developed “CanLEAD-FWI,” consisting of novel, high-resolution projections of fire weather and an associated user-facing climate services delivery mechanism. Based on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System (<span><span>Van Wagner, 1987</span></span>) with multivariate bias-adjusted output from the CanLEAD-CanRCM4-EWEMBI large ensemble (<span><span>Cannon et al., 2021</span></span>), CanLEAD-FWI provides various wildfire-relevant indicators. Comparison against two gridded observation-based datasets provides an estimate of observational uncertainty in historical FWI System component extremes, with historical CanLEAD-FWI generally situated between these two datasets. Over the 21st century, CanLEAD-FWI projects substantial, robust increases in the severity and frequency of high fire weather and a lengthening fire season across much of Canada, although the magnitude and spatial extent of increases depend on the metric and FWI System component.</p><p>To enhance data utility for decision-making and consider diverse user needs, we integrated two rounds of user engagement into product development. A web-based application was designed to address user feedback, support best practices, and reduce decision overload. CanLEAD-FWI addresses a growing need in the Canadian climate services space for both projected climate impact data and associated training and support. By combining user feedback, best practices for climate services, and expert knowledge, we aim to enhance the appropriate integration of fire weather information into long-term decision-making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100505"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000608/pdfft?md5=4ecc7b158370401708760a213d54720b&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000608-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141729441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Smallholder farmers’ coping strategies to climate change and variability: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"Assefa A. Berhanu ,&nbsp;Zewdu B. Ayele ,&nbsp;Dessalegn C. Dagnew ,&nbsp;Abeje B. Fenta ,&nbsp;Koyachew E. Kassie","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change poses significant challenges for smallholder farmers worldwide, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, requiring effective coping strategies for resilience. This study examines farmers’ exposure to climatic shocks and their adoption of coping strategies. Findings from a survey of 646 farm households and qualitative discussions revealed farmers’ high vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Smallholder farmers rely on ex-ante coping strategies, including early planting (48.5%), income diversification (41.3%), increasing savings (42 %), water management (39.2%), and sowing drought-resistant varieties (37%). Similarly, they resort to ex-post coping techniques, such as reducing expenses (46.1%), utilizing savings (41.6%), changes in consumption patterns (39.5%), seeking assistance from relatives (23.5%), borrowing (17.6%), selling assets (11.9%), and migration for employment (8.7%). Farmers also encounter constraints such as limited access to weather information, inadequate extension services, weak institutional support, insufficient skills, high poverty levels, and limited access to innovations. Factors like land size, climate training, self-efficacy, cost-effectiveness perception, and hazard consequence perception positively influence farmers’ adoption of proactive strategies against climate change, while being male, older, less educated, owning a farm, limited access to extension services, and market constraints hinder anticipatory measures. Additionally, household head being male, education level, farm experience, land ownership, and access to climate information positively impact the implementation of ex-post strategies, whereas age, agroecology, infrequent extension worker visits, and limited road access have negative effects. Enhancing access to climate information, institutional support, and design policy with an understanding of these multifaceted contexts could substantially improve smallholder farmers’ resilience to climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100509"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000645/pdfft?md5=523415453d7cd506e08473c2454235d3&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000645-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141729454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diversification of agriculture practices as a response to climate change impacts among farmers in low-income countries: A systematic literature review","authors":"Hayrol Azril Mohamed Shaffril ,&nbsp;Asnarulkhadi Abu Samah ,&nbsp;Samsul Farid Samsuddin ,&nbsp;Nobaya Ahmad ,&nbsp;Fredoline Tangang ,&nbsp;Shaufique Fahmi Ahmad Sidique ,&nbsp;Haliza Abdul Rahman ,&nbsp;Nik Ahmad Sufian Burhan ,&nbsp;Jasmin Arif Shah ,&nbsp;Nurul Amiera Khalid","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100508","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100508","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The primary objective of this study is to systematically review the literature on the diversification of agriculture practice as one of the many ways farmers in low-income countries can respond and adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change. To ascertain the rigor in its methodology, this systematic literature review (SLR) adhered to guidelines outlined in RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES); the research question was formulated based on the mnemonics of Population, Interest, and Context (PICo), the inclusion and exclusion criteria were based on timeline publication, document type, language, low-income countries and focused on reviewing empirical evidence studies; the quality was appraised based on Mixed Method Appraisal Tools (MMAT), while data extraction and analyses were executed using thematic analysis. The analytical outcomes yielded three main themes. First is the theme related to crops and varieties-related strategies, which consist of four sub-themes: early maturing crops, use of the drought-tolerant variety, abandoning crops, and introduction of new crop/crop rotation/crop diversity/mixed crop. The second theme is soil and water conservation techniques, which later produced another six sub-themes, namely the use of organic/inorganic fertilizer, water harvesting, irrigation and drainage, tree planting and agroforestry, terracing/contour farming to prevent soil erosion, mulching/stone barriers and agriculture mechanisation related activities. The last theme is planting-related strategies, which consist of three sub-themes: rescheduling the planting calendar, increasing pesticide/herbicide/integrated pest management, and selecting and expanding new areas. Referring to this SLR, there is a pressing need to facilitate farmers facing inadequate resources to adapt effectively to environmental and other change forms. Upon comprehending the present adaptation practices used by farmers, interested parties may offer ideas to strategize effective adaptation plans tailored to farmers’ needs, abilities, and interests across low-income countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100508"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000633/pdfft?md5=5fc8405c6846204a581e974918d2fa56&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000633-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141629856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A gendered analysis of farmers’ access to and willingness to pay for climate information services: Evidence from rice farmers in Mali","authors":"Aboubacar Diallo ,&nbsp;Elliott Ronald Dossou-Yovo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Little is known about the predictors of access to and willingness to pay (WTP) for climate information services (CIS) by smallholder farmers in Mali. This paper addresses this research gap by identifying the opportunities and barriers to the uptake of CIS and analysing the predictors of access to and WTP for CIS from a gendered perspective using primary data collected from 200 rice farmers distributed in four rice-growing environments. We used descriptive statistics and logit regression to do the analysis. We find that crop variety selection was the most taken CIS-informed farm decision by farmers with a larger share for female farmers (65%) relative to their male counterparts (48%). Not clear how CIS can be used to help with farming was the main barrier to the uptake of CIS. Household struggles for food during the farming season, availability of stored seeds, access to irrigation facilities, access to training and radio were the major factors affecting male farmers’ access to CIS while the key predictors of access to CIS by female farmers included availability of stored seeds, access to irrigation facilities, remittances and access to radio. Male farmers’ WTP for CIS was mainly influenced by access to training and radio, while experience in rice farming and social organisation membership were the key determinants for female farmers’ WTP for CIS. The results from this study can be used by research and development organizations to design gender inclusive CIS to enhance adoption of climate smart agriculture practices, and farmers resilience to climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100507"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000621/pdfft?md5=83be29bd58ed885d51eddf105c428bc1&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000621-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141622174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Responding to climate services in the context of drought: A systematic review","authors":"Lotte C.F.E. Muller ,&nbsp;Marije Schaafsma ,&nbsp;Maurizio Mazzoleni ,&nbsp;Anne F. Van Loon","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100493","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate Services (CS) are increasingly being employed to address challenges resulting from climatic hazards. Research has focused on identifying and categorising CS, CS uptake, barriers to use, and CS user needs. Findings on empirical responses to CS are scattered. The aim of this paper is to systematically review existing literature on behavioural, perception, and attitude responses to CS, in the context of drought. Our review considers CS responses explicitly and is not limited to specific user groups or regions. Using the Web of Science database, we identified 88 journal articles containing terms related to CS, behaviour and droughts, published between 1999 and 2022. We identified and classified the characteristics of the CS, responses to CS, and the impacts that these responses had. We find that behavioural responses are reported more frequently than attitude and perception responses to CS. Half of the CS users consisted of farmers, mostly provided with seasonal forecasts, who respond to the CS information predominantly by changing crops or crop planting/harvesting dates. Non-farmers responded to CS behaviourally by enacting or developing plans, policies, or programs. This overview provides an evidence base towards the assessment of impacts of CS, and suggests that further developing CS could require a shift from providing precise climate or weather data, towards providing how climate or weather information relates to the decision-spaces of users.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100493"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000487/pdfft?md5=0e8522b44cf6a40f81bcf2cd9188e911&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000487-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141595749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis and prediction of crop water footprints in the Fen River Basin of Shanxi Province, China","authors":"Man Li ,&nbsp;Junjie Zhang ,&nbsp;Huancai Liu ,&nbsp;Shanshan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In China, the major water user is agriculture. Under the background of climate change and with the pressure of scarce water resources, the study of crop water footprints serves as a theoretical basis for regional optimization of water resource management, fine-tuning crop planting structures and actively addressing the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production, among other critical issues. Leveraging meteorological and agricultural data, we employed Taiyuan which is situated in Fen River Basin as our focal research subject and calculated and analyzed the water footprint variations concerning six major food crops—wheat, corn, grain, sorghum, soybean, and potato—from 2000 to 2020. Through meticulous examination, we identified the predominant contribution of blue water (45 %) to the total water footprint, followed by green water (39 %), with grey water playing the smallest role (16 %), indicating that the use of water for crops in the Fen River Basin mainly consumes surface water and groundwater. Our investigation reveals a complementary association between blue water and green water, while both blue water and grey water exhibit an overall declining tendency from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, our predictive modeling of food crop water footprints, considering various SSPs-RCPs scenarios refered from IPCC, points towards a peak within the coming 10–20 years, with a growth rate of 16.2 % to 33.0 %, followed by a subsequent decline. Particularly, in SSP3-7.0 scenario, the water footprint of food crops presents the highest, with a growth rate of up to 33.0 % because of the continuous growth of population and the increase of crop sowing area, while in SSP1-2.6 scenario, the water footprint of food crops shows the lowest, with a growth rate of 16.2 % because of the decrease in population and crop sowing area, before the middle of the current century.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100504"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000591/pdfft?md5=614d39390276462c7659a4564919a1bd&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000591-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141479671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integration of climate information into urban climate change adaptation: A case study of municipal processes in Constance","authors":"J.-A. Harrs ,&nbsp;V. Reinhart ,&nbsp;V. Vögt ,&nbsp;J.P.P. Scheib ,&nbsp;T. Tewes ,&nbsp;T. Pohl ,&nbsp;D. Rechid","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100495","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Cities need to adapt to climate change in an increasingly rapid pace. Data and information on the existing and expected climate impact and the effectiveness of adaptive measures can support the planning and implementation of resilient urban planning. To inform urban climate change adaptation (CCA) in Germany a diverse landscape of climate services exists. However, the literature on usability gaps shows different barriers impeding the use potential of climate services. This study empirically analyzes the needs and barriers of municipal staff of different departments in Constance with regard to utilizing climate data and information. Surveying 72 and interviewing 10 municipal staffers, we found that climate data and information hold great potential for different public services but its handling poses many challenges. Furthermore, we found that a strategic approach mainstreaming climate data and information into cross-departmental work practices on urban CCA is crucial to anchor its usage in complex decision-making systems. The co-development of data-sensitive workflows, decision support tools, and capacity trainings can foster such integration. Based on the survey and interview results we designed a workflow on how to integrate such data and information strategically in municipal work processes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100495"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000505/pdfft?md5=dc8d1563fc88ad7d7ed11bf62e9671bb&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000505-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141479451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The combination of climate information services in the decision-making process of farmers to reduce climate risks: Application of social cognition theory","authors":"Moslem Savari ,&nbsp;Milad Zhoolideh ,&nbsp;Mohammad Limuie","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100500","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>One of the main instruments of risk management and climate risk reduction in the agricultural sector is the use of climate information services (CIS). Meteorological information can be useful for society by increasing the efficiency of resource consumption and helping to improve decision-making management. However, there is a gap between the production and implementation of weather forecasts, and that is the lack of practical use of weather forecasts in the agricultural decision-making process. In doing so, this research was conducted with the main objective of identifying components influencing the utilize of CIS by farmers in southwest Iran. The research utilized social cognitive theory (SCT) as the underlying framework, employing a survey method and employing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) for analysis. The research encompassed all farmers residing in Dezful city within the Khuzestan province, located in the southwest of Iran. The results showed that the variables of SCT, namely outcome expectations, perception of others’ behavior, self-efficacy, socio-structural, and behavioral intentions are very powerful in identifying factors affecting farmers’ use of CIS and can account for 76.4% of the variance of farmers’ behavior. Therefore, these research results can provide essential help to authorities to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100500"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000554/pdfft?md5=3930e327b5fbd937ea5779ef6cc962f7&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000554-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141323053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for improved predictions of the climate impacts on potential yields of UK winter wheat and its applicability to other UK crops","authors":"Garry Hayman ,&nbsp;John W. Redhead ,&nbsp;Matthew Brown ,&nbsp;Ewan Pinnington ,&nbsp;France Gerard ,&nbsp;Mike Brown ,&nbsp;William Fincham ,&nbsp;Emma L. Robinson ,&nbsp;Chris Huntingford ,&nbsp;Richard F. Pywell","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Changes in the frequency of extreme weather events related to climate change potentially pose significant challenges to UK agricultural production. There is a need for improved climate change risk assessments to support adaptation strategies and to ensure security of food production in future.</p><p>We describe an innovative and practical framework for spatially explicit modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields, based on the UKCP18 climate projections. Our approach allows the integration of relatively simple crop growth models with high spatial and temporal resolution Earth Observation datasets, describing changes in crop growth parameters within year and over the longer term. We focus on modelling winter wheat, a commercially important crop. We evaluate the results of the model against precision yield data collected from 719 fields. We show that the assimilation of leaf area index data from Sentinel-2 satellite observations improves the agreement of the modelled yields with those observed. Our national-scale results indicate that wheat production initially becomes more favourable under climate change across much of the UK with the projected increase in temperature. From 2050 onwards, yields increase northwards, whilst they decline in South East England as the decrease in precipitation offsets the benefits of rising temperature.</p><p>Our framework can readily accommodate growth models for other crops and LAI retrievals from other satellite sensors. The ability to explore impacts of crop yields at fine spatial resolutions is an important part of assessing the potential risks of climate change to UK agriculture and of designing more climate resilient agricultural systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100479"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000347/pdfft?md5=acb07139ad9ba7952be8e0bbe685e7ef&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000347-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A statewide, weather-regime based stochastic weather generator for process-based bottom-up climate risk assessments in California – Part II: Thermodynamic and dynamic climate change scenarios","authors":"Nasser Najibi ,&nbsp;Alejandro J. Perez ,&nbsp;Wyatt Arnold ,&nbsp;Andrew Schwarz ,&nbsp;Romain Maendly ,&nbsp;Scott Steinschneider","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100485","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study is the second of a two-part series presenting a novel weather regime-based stochastic weather generator to support bottom-up climate vulnerability assessments of water systems in California. In Part 2 of this series, we present how the model is used to develop an ensemble of climate change scenarios based on both thermodynamic and dynamic signals of climate change. The ensemble includes a suite of 30 climate change scenarios, each consisting of 1000 years of simulated daily climate data (precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature) at a 6 km resolution across the entire state of California. The 30 scenarios represent a range of plausible climate changes to temperature, average precipitation, and precipitation extremes that are reflective of thermodynamic responses of the atmosphere to warming. An additional two scenarios are also created that represent changes in the frequency of weather regimes (e.g., dynamic climate change). Results from these scenarios reveal that when the effects of anthropogenic climate change are combined with plausible realizations of natural climate variability, the severity of extremes in California is amplified significantly. In addition, recent changes in the frequency of large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation can have impacts of similar magnitude to large (&gt;10%) declines in average precipitation, particularly with respect to drought. The scenarios developed in this work are designed to allow water managers to systematically test the sensitivity of their water system to different combinations of climate change, so that key vulnerabilities can be discovered and then addressed through adaptation planning.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100485"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000402/pdfft?md5=d9d81943192a0d752d1d5791a72345f8&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000402-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141068315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}