Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100449
Nils Riach, Rüdiger Glaser
{"title":"Local climate services. Can municipal climate profiles help improve climate literacy?","authors":"Nils Riach, Rüdiger Glaser","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As the negative consequences of climate change are being felt more widely, research and practice have increasingly focused on the municipal scale to better understand and address the climate adaptation gap. The literature recognizes that adaptation is supported by the provision of climate services, the lack of which can negatively affect climate literacy and constrain adaptation planning and implementation. However, the efficacy of climate services is rarely evaluated, especially in relation to the needs of practitioners. Using the example of the German state of Baden-Württemberg, we survey municipal adaptation and show that it is unevenly implemented and often underdeveloped. We also introduce municipal climate profiles as a user-oriented climate service and evaluate their added value from a practitioner's perspective. Our results indicate that they help improve climate literacy, as they can serve as a catalyst for local dialogues, promoting discussions about perceived impacts and anticipated adaptation requirements. However, our findings also imply, that improving climate literacy alone may not be sufficient to bridge the adaptation gap. Clear guidelines on adaptation practices, along with funding schemes for personnel and measures, are also crucial to overcome structural barriers that hinder adaptation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100449"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000049/pdfft?md5=b52865f88d8c18831e85372e9b4eeee8&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000049-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139682578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100437
Muhammad Irshad Ahmad , Hengyun Ma , Qiong Shen , Abdul Rehman , Less Oxley
{"title":"Climate change variability adaptation and farmers decisions of farm exit and survival in Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Irshad Ahmad , Hengyun Ma , Qiong Shen , Abdul Rehman , Less Oxley","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100437","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pakistan is listed among the countries that are extremely vulnerable to climate changes and it has experienced several climatic and natural disaster shocks with adverse impacts on its agricultural sector and farmers livelihoods. This study investigates adaptation to climate change as a means of farm survival and farm exit in Pakistan by using panel datasets and empirically employs Multinomial Logit Model (MLN) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The results reveal, first, farm experience significantly increases the likelihood of climate change adaptation and decreases the likelihood of farm exit. Second, land and livestock ownership both have positive and significant impact on farm survival with adaptation strategies and decrease the probability of farm exit. Third, climatic disasters have positive and significant impact on farm exit. Four, extension services have negative and significant impact on adaptation strategies and increase the probability of farm exit for those farms who did not receive climate change adaptation strategies information timely. Finally, TPB results illustrate that non-adapters climate change future intensions are affected by attitude, perceived behavioral control and subjective norms. The study findings bring scholars and policymakers attentions towards next level of climate change impact on farm exit, and are useful for farm survival and recruiting new farmers by promoting mixed-crop livestock production systems in the face of climate change, and during viral diseases such as Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) of animals that caused a large number of animals deaths nationally and internationally.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100437"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000997/pdfft?md5=ed00962b0049709948b2d20e2993ca35&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000997-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100442
Yuwan Malakar, Aysha Fleming, Simon Fielke, Stephen Snow, Emma Jakku
{"title":"Comparing established practice for short-term forecasts and emerging use of climate projections to identify opportunities for climate services in Australian agriculture","authors":"Yuwan Malakar, Aysha Fleming, Simon Fielke, Stephen Snow, Emma Jakku","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The use of climate services in agriculture to improve both tactical and strategic management decisions on farm is an area of increasing societal interest and technological development in Australia, as climate change increases climate variability and risk. Yet the focus of most uses of climate services remains on weather and seasonal forecasts and tactical farm responses, with longer term climate projections less often empirically examined. In this paper we analyse 25 interviews with farmers in Australia and use social practice theory to compare farm risk management decisions utilising short-term weather forecasting and longer-term climate projection planning. We identify different elements of climate risk management as a social practice, looking particularly at materials (objects and tools), meanings (beliefs and thinking) and competencies (skills and knowledge) associated with climate services. We find that there are significant differences in how decisions are made using different temporal data scales and furthermore, that there are large gaps in the materials, meaning and competencies for the use of longer-term climate projections. This analysis allows us to clearly identify opportunities for the agricultural sector in Australia, and globally, to better support decisions in both weather and climate timeframes by treating these as distinctly different capabilities and addressing the different elements of social practice outlined here.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100442"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723001048/pdfft?md5=9d72a8a413b3582fe01d2b86fe818240&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723001048-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100435
Vieri Tarchiani, Maurizio Bacci
{"title":"The added value of the process in climate services co-production: Lessons from Niger","authors":"Vieri Tarchiani, Maurizio Bacci","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate services are recognized as an essential tool for sustainable development in strategic and climate-sensitive sectors. In developing countries, particularly in Africa, the literature offers successful examples of application, especially in the agricultural sector, which is dramatically sensitive to climate variability and change. While, initially, particular emphasis was placed on the outcomes of these services and the benefits they provide to users, several authors, more recently, have focused their attention on the process. A climate service is understood as a cyclical process in which the different actors interact, exchange knowledge, and establish relationships and mutual trust. This co-production process serves primarily to bridge the gap between science and society and is particularly appropriate for developing countries. Several authors claim the benefit of the co-production process improving the service usability, but rarely the intrinsic value of the process is recognized. This study aims to describe the process and document its added value using the example of Niger as a case study, where two services addressing drought and floods have recently been developed, tested, and operationalized. This experience allows for inferring lessons that can be useful for researchers and practitioners in developed and developing contexts. The value of the collaboration between different disciplines (transdisciplinarity) and roles (complementarity), and the iterative and interactive learning process emerge as key elements allowing a continuous improvement of the services and the strengthened relationship among actors. The results of this process, albeit qualitatively described in the paper, could guide researchers and practitioners in adopting such an approach and could represent a tangible example for funders and policymakers of the process’s added value. Nevertheless, the article recognizes the need to develop a methodological framework for quali/quantitatively assessing the added value of the co-production process and suggests four dimensions to be considered in further research. Finally, the paper recommends the capitalization of pilot experiences through the national and global frameworks for climate services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100435"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000973/pdfft?md5=6103fe98ccb7c0f36ae41f67bb0345b9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000973-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100434
Michele Meroni , Petar Vojonovic , Matteo Zampieri , Stefano Materia , Felix Rembold , Oliver Kipkogei , Andrea Toreti
{"title":"Increasing the prospective capacity of global crop and rangeland monitoring with phenology tailored seasonal precipitation forecasts","authors":"Michele Meroni , Petar Vojonovic , Matteo Zampieri , Stefano Materia , Felix Rembold , Oliver Kipkogei , Andrea Toreti","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Droughts are more and more often a limiting factor to agricultural production and can have severe negative effects on food security in vulnerable countries. Global agriculture early warning systems monitor agriculture in near real-time by analyzing meteorological data (e.g. precipitation and temperature) and optical remote sensing data as proxy vegetation health to detect possible negative anomalies and trigger warnings. Seasonal climate forecast can add a predictive component and inform about upcoming precipitation deficits, thus allowing anticipation and improved planning of response actions. Here, we propose a scheme to adapt the standard precipitation forecast from the seasonal Copernicus Climate Change Service multi-system to crop and rangeland phenology, making them suitable for agricultural early warning. Precipitation forecasts are first elaborated into tercile maps showing the probability of the most likely tercile (i.e. drier than normal, normal, wetter than normal) and associated skills of all possible monthly periods combinations included in the six months forecasting horizon. Afterwards, agronomically relevant tercile maps are produced for the closest season in time at any location. These maps are obtained by mosaicking the forecasts for the appropriate growing season period at each grid cell. The resulting map shows the tercile probability for the remaining part of the ongoing growing season (if any at time of analysis) or the probability of the next upcoming season (if in between growing season at time of analysis). The proposed methodology offers a precipitation seasonal forecast product ready to use by agricultural analysts and directly ingestible by automatic warning systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100434"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000961/pdfft?md5=7b31f30be4ae95abc2e30bbf96533987&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000961-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139419394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100436
Caleb O'Brien , Marc Stern , Jennifer Brousseau , Lara Hansen , R. Bruce Hull
{"title":"Participant perspectives on effective elements and impacts of climate change adaptation workshops in the United States","authors":"Caleb O'Brien , Marc Stern , Jennifer Brousseau , Lara Hansen , R. Bruce Hull","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Communities in the United States are increasingly relying on place-based climate adaptation workshops to aid attempts to prepare for—and cope with—climate change, but there is limited empirical evidence about what participants believe these workshops can achieve and what elements they find most valuable. To begin addressing this gap, we sought to understand participant perceptions of effective workshop elements and outcomes across a wide range of locations and workshop formats. We surveyed participants in 33 place-based adaptation workshops that took place in the United States between 2017 and 2020. We sought to understand participants’ perceptions of the outcomes of these workshops and the workshop elements that drove those outcomes. Results suggest that workshop participants commonly believed that they learned, strengthened their sense of efficacy, and deepened relationships with other workshop attendees. Participants identified specific climate actions resulting from the workshop, including knowledge dissemination efforts and project implementation. We argue that effective adaptation workshops can also expand reference groups and foster norms around climate change adaptation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100436"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000985/pdfft?md5=c30d2301c8b80359da8b4677ef9c1401&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000985-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100444
Sohaib Aqib , Mehdi Seraj , Huseyin Ozdeser , Sidra Khalid , Muhammad Haseeb Raza , Taimoor Ahmad
{"title":"Assessing adaptive capacity of climate-vulnerable farming communities in flood-prone areas: Insights from a household survey in South Punjab, Pakistan","authors":"Sohaib Aqib , Mehdi Seraj , Huseyin Ozdeser , Sidra Khalid , Muhammad Haseeb Raza , Taimoor Ahmad","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural systems worldwide. In Pakistan, an agrarian country where the majority of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods, the impacts of climate change can be particularly devastating. Understanding the adaptive capacity of farmers is crucial in order to identify effective strategies for coping with the impacts of climate change. This study aimed to assess the adaptive capacity of farmers in Rajanpur and Dera Ghazi Khan, two flood-prone districts of South Punjab, Pakistan. Data were collected in October 2022 from 448 farmers through multistage stratified random sampling, and multivariate regression and bivariate probit models were used to analyze the likelihood of farmers adopting certain joint strategies and the impact of socioeconomic factors on their decision-making. Results indicated that concern for climate change and knowledge of market value of crops were significant determinants for farmers adopting joint strategies, while farmers with more experience and alternate sources of income were less likely to do so. Increased irrigation was a top strategy used despite its potential negative environmental impacts. Findings highlight the need for a holistic approach to climate adaptation that considers complex social, economic, and environmental factors and appreciates the complex decision-making process that farmers undergo. Understanding the local context is key to developing effective interventions to support climate resilience and sustainable livelihoods in agricultural communities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100444"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723001061/pdfft?md5=afdfe8cee8e87131edd325a2524b7f82&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723001061-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100441
Lotten Wiréhn
{"title":"From relevant to usable: Swedish agricultural extension officers’ perspectives on climate change projections","authors":"Lotten Wiréhn","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the potential relevance, usefulness, and usability of climate change projections for Swedish agricultural planning and management. Although research indicates the importance of specific users acting as knowledge brokers for climate information, there are knowledge gaps concerning agricultural extension officers’ use of climate information. Through a survey and stakeholder workshops, perspectives of Swedish agricultural extension officers on climate change projections were collected. The results provide insights into “what” information in climate change projections that is relevant and “how” climate information may be presented and used. Based on the analysis of the workshop dialogues, four themes outlining the “what” and “how” were identified: (i) a need for additional climate indicators for Swedish agriculture, (ii) the criticalness of temporal precision, (iii) trade-offs between providing precision and an overview, and (iv) a relevance – usability contradiction<em>.</em> These results inform the basis for ongoing research and practical applications focused on agriculturally tailored climate information, as well as the broader development of climate service methodology. The study reveals a latent demand for climate change projections among respondents, indicating a perceived relevance of information on future climates, but limited current use and usability among agricultural extension officers. The requisite for tailored climate indicators is clear – in this case, for Swedish agricultural planning and management – but critical usability challenges need to be addressed to move from providing relevant information to achieving actual usage that can enhance the climate resilience in Swedish agriculture.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100441"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723001036/pdfft?md5=16fa8f09ecee01f055438ba0f13dda28&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723001036-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100430
Mekonnen Amberber Degefu , Fantu Kifle
{"title":"Impacts of climate variability on the vegetable production of urban farmers in the Addis Ababa metropolitan area: Nexus of climate-smart agricultural technologies","authors":"Mekonnen Amberber Degefu , Fantu Kifle","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100430","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study was aimed at examining the impacts of climate variability on vegetable production and nexus climate-smart agriculture technologies. The study was conducted on vegetable farmers along the little Akaki River in Addis Ababa. Field data was collected from 156 randomly selected vegetable farmers via semi-structured survey questions. Climate data from 1996 to 2020 was analysed using qualitative and quantitative descriptive statistics methods. The results of monthly and annual precipitation variability indicated a coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 23% to 73% and 49% to 98%, respectively. Seasonally, CV ranges between 34% and 99%, 50%–97%, and 20%–84% in Belg, Bega, and Kiremt, respectively. The results of respondents' perceptions indicated an increasing trend in temperature and precipitation variability. Vegetable urban farmers perceived an increase in the frequency of floods and rain falls (44.9%), drought frequency (13.5%), temperature (89.7%), and a decrease in the trend of vegetable productivity (86.5%) as the major impacts of climate variability. However, changing vegetable varieties (31.4%), early planting (26.9%), mixed farming (26.6%), late planting (5.1%), using agrochemicals (4.5%), and agroforestry (1.9%) are the major on-farm climates where smart agriculture technologies were identified for adaptation. Shift occupation (37.8%), nonadaptation (36.5%), and non-farm activations (24.4%) were employed by the farmers as off-farm adaptation options. In addition, vulnerability analysis indicated that the absence of direct access to the market, inadequate access to weather information, land fragmentation, and tenure complications are the major determinants of being vulnerable. Finally, high precipitation and temperature variability affect vegetable productivity.</p></div><div><h3>Practical Implications</h3><p>Climate extreme phenomena are substantial pressures on urban agricultural production systems in risk-prone cities, where climate service challenges are rising globally (<span>Sanfo et al., 2022</span>, <span>Kifle et al., 2022</span>, <span>Ebissa and Desta, 2022</span>); besides, the requirement to produce more urban vegetables to feed residents, an ever-increasing and vulnerable group, is undeniable (<span>Martinez et al., 2022</span>). Additionally, climate variability and change threaten urban and pre-urban farmers’ livelihoods and agricultural farming, particularly in semi-arid areas in Africa (<span>Magesa et al., 2023</span>). Furthermore, 64 % of the world’s poorest people lived in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020, which strongly requires the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals 1 (no poverty), 2 (zero hunger) and 11 (make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable) in the region (<span>Magesa et al., 2023</span>, <span>Chitakira and Ngcobo, 2021</span>, <span>Degefu et al., 2021c</span>).</p><p>Thus, cities are exposure to compatible climate information services is vital for","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100430"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000924/pdfft?md5=9ce7373768f5b14f634f627bd5127726&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723000924-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate ServicesPub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100445
Thomas Willis , Yim Ling Siu , Andrea Taylor , Suraje Dessai , Buda Su , Tong Jiang , Andrew Turner , Guy Griffiths , John Rostron
{"title":"An integrated climate and water resource climate service prototype for long term water allocation in the Upper Yellow River region of China","authors":"Thomas Willis , Yim Ling Siu , Andrea Taylor , Suraje Dessai , Buda Su , Tong Jiang , Andrew Turner , Guy Griffiths , John Rostron","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100445","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Water Resourcing in China has historically been a complex issue requiring the ability to deal with regular floods, droughts and diverse water needs. Climate change represents another challenge to this sector, albeit one that is not traditionally considered by water managers. In this sector in China water management is predominantly based on historic, seasonal and annual forecast data while multi-annual and (multi-)decadal data are seldom used. In this paper, we present the co-development of a climate service prototype designed to provide water managers with insights into the impacts of climate change on the Upper Yellow River region for the next century. The paper is an outcome from our project that encouraged water resource planners and water resource managers to utilise long-term climate information to understand the uncertainties and the challenges our changing climate is likely to have in the region. Using an interdisciplinary team and adopting a user-centred, co-production approach, a prototype web-based data visualisation tool was developed. The development of the prototype was based on a design specification constructed from the findings of detailed interviews that allowed it to be developed and tested under SARS-CoV-2 pandemic restrictions that prevented the typical development process to be undertaken. The developed prototype presents climate information and communicates uncertainties regarding climate change in the remainder of the century through data sets that are typically used by the water sector in China in a simple, easy to understand style. Models that estimate river levels under different extraction scenarios and results about estimated river level and flow, and flood risk are also presented. The prototype was shown to be successful, as key messages relating to the impact of climate change and the challenges for water resource management could be effectively communicated through the tool interface.</p></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><p>Understanding the impacts of climate change on water resourcing is complicated and multifaceted. There is a need for better data about what water there is and how it is moving around between and within catchments. Estimates of past, present and future climate variables along with historical measurements of river flow can be used to help visualise some of the uncertainties and changes that may happen in the next 50 years. In addition, there is a need to understand changing water demands and water resource management practices. Current water resource management practices are based on historical conditions and assumptions that are less likely to hold true in a more variable and warmer climate. Communicating how future changes will impact future water resourcing is critical to water resources in a changing climate (Belcher et al. 2018).</p><p>This research outlines the construction of a tool to visualise the impacts of climate change on water availability in part of China that is typ","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100445"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723001073/pdfft?md5=b9ec6b24d3230c1ca8a91799053d9331&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880723001073-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139090276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}