Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"What do vegetable farmers expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? A case study from the Parisian region","authors":"Nabil Touili ,&nbsp;Kevin Morel ,&nbsp;Christine Aubry ,&nbsp;Natalie de Noblet-Ducoudré","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate services are an important tool providing information for many sectors to adapt to climate change. For agriculture, the impacts of climate change vary between regions and between crops, and farmers' needs for climate information are also determined by local context. The purpose of this paper is to identify the climate information needs of vegetable farmers, and to discuss these needs within the specific context of the Parisian region. Based on participatory workshops in three areas of the Parisian region, and using regional downscaled data from the French climate services, this study addresses the following question: what do vegetable farmers of a <em>peri</em>-urban area expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? Participatory workshops with agricultural expert allowed us to build a preliminary set of climate variables based on crops' vulnerability to high temperatures, mild temperature in winter, late frost, low relative air humidity, low precipitation, and climate extremes such as drought, heat waves and floods. Based on this set of variables climate projection on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales were provided to farmers for the near (2021–2040) and distant (2041–2060) future, as well as for past period (1990–2020) and discussed during 3 participatory workshops. Based on farmer’s feedbacks, we made a synthesis of climate information required by farmers which was validated and further discussed in a last round of workshops involving farmers and agricultural advisers. Three main findings emerge from this participatory study. Our first finding shows the need for both climate and non-climate information for vegetable farming adaptation. Specific needs include information on wind speed peaks and directions, soil moisture, climate analogous spaces (or sites), and urban planning regulations (constraining the possibility to build greenhouses or tunnels to adapt to climate change). Our second finding is that farmers expect from climate services to visualise a comprehensive climatic situation, that is, a whole conjunction of several inter-related variables, rather than precise and detailed variations of a single one. Seasonal and annual time scales seem to be the most relevant for farmers’ adaptation strategies (except for frost requiring more precise information). Our third finding is that these needs remain context-specific and depend on water access, the market demand (here Parisian), and the <em>peri</em>-urban location.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100474"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000293/pdfft?md5=ca3fad1edcf6256ed8ef7bc63d76377b&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000293-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140650042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thai farmers’ perceptions on climate change: Evidence on durian farms in Surat Thani province","authors":"Apichaya Lilavanichakul ,&nbsp;Tapan B. Pathak","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events pose significant threats to agricultural productivity and food security. These conditions provide the glimpse of the future and smallholder farmers, who often lack access to resources and support, are particularly vulnerable. Among the crops cultivated in Thailand, durian stands out as a uniquely cherished commodity, predominantly cultivated by these vulnerable farmers and despite the significance of this crop, there remains a notable oversight in understanding the specific challenges and vulnerabilities faced by durian growers in the face of changing climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate the perception of climate change and the adaptive capacity among durian farmers in Southern Thailand. A survey involving 80 durian farmers from Surat Thani province was conducted, and the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a binary logistic regression model. Findings found that 91.2 % of respondents acknowledged the impact of climate change, with 53.1 % opting to implement adaptation strategies. Factors such as lower education levels, limited farming experience, small farm sizes, and greater reliance on family labor significantly influenced the adoption of these strategies. Farmers achieving higher yields tended to adopt information and communication technologies (ICT), while smart farming technology (SFT) was more common among younger farmers and those with larger farms. This study indicates factors influencing adoption and a potential gap between awareness and action among durian farmers, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and support mechanisms to encourage and facilitate the implementation of adaptation measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100475"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072400030X/pdfft?md5=9afdd7ee9076799db4a339a62c0b560e&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072400030X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140632998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin, China","authors":"Zixuan Qi ,&nbsp;Lian Sun ,&nbsp;Yanpeng Cai ,&nbsp;Yulei Xie ,&nbsp;Linlin Yao ,&nbsp;Bowen Li ,&nbsp;Yuchen Ye","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Extreme heat-precipitation events, such as heatwaves and extreme precipitation, can have substantial impacts on the population, particularly in urbanized watersheds. However, few studies have investigated individual and compound extreme heat-precipitation events, causing much valuable information loss for watershed climate risk management. This study focuses on the Pearl River Basin (PRB), a highly urbanized area in southern China, and aims to predict changes in population exposure to extreme heat-precipitation events. To achieve this, a ranked ensemble global climate model (GCM) was used to generate projections for individual extreme precipitation, heatwaves, and sequential and coincident heat waves and precipitation extremes (SHWPs and CHWPs) under three future scenarios (SSP-RCPs). The main findings of the study are as follows: Precipitation extremes represent increasing extreme days and intensity under all three scenarios across the PRB. Towards the end of the 21st century, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that heat waves will last ten times longer than historical records. Comparing two types of compound extreme events, we conclude that the 21st century will see a near-term high risk for SHWPs and a long-term high risk for CHWPs in the PRB. Furthermore, in both individual and compound heat-precipitation events, five hotspot cities in the PRB (i.e., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, and Huizhou) will face higher population exposure to extreme heat-precipitation events. These cities share common characteristics: key to economic development, coastal, and densely populated. This study can provide insight into extreme climate risk management in other tropical and subtropical basins.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000323/pdfft?md5=b67498b15be7b43219e94ef9a09763c8&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000323-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140632999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Canadian climate data portals: A comparative analysis from a user perspective","authors":"Juliette Lavoie ,&nbsp;Louis-Philippe Caron ,&nbsp;Travis Logan ,&nbsp;Elaine Barrow","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100471","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate data portals are essential tools for climate change adaptation. This study analyses differences between two Canadian portals providing bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulations: Climate Data Canada and <em>Portraits Climatiques</em>. The study evaluates three core variables (daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and precipitation) as well as assesses five case studies, taken from the agriculture, transport and health sectors, that relied on climate indicators available through the portals. The underlying datasets vary in multiple ways (bias-adjustment methodology, climate of reference, ensemble composition, emissions scenarios) and, in general, the climatology of variables and indicators tends to be statistically different between portals towards the end of the century. Differences are significantly reduced when comparing projected changes with respect to present climate conditions, highlighting the important role played by the dataset used as a reference for the bias-adjustment procedure. When considered from the point of view of practical applications, the discrepancies between the portals are generally, although not always, sufficiently small that they do not impact the resulting decisions. Finally, indicators based on a fixed threshold were found to be strongly influenced by the reference used for the bias adjustment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100471"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000268/pdfft?md5=c6c31c3e9ec8f9b89d8fd5db105b83d7&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000268-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140350929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying socioeconomic exposure patterns and hotspots of global tropical cyclones from 1990 to 2019","authors":"Chengcheng Wan ,&nbsp;Yinwei Tian ,&nbsp;Jianli Liu ,&nbsp;Yafei Yan ,&nbsp;Zhongchao Shi ,&nbsp;Jiahong Wen ,&nbsp;Lijun Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards. Socioeconomic exposure to TCs is essential for global disaster risk assessment. This study mapped global TC hazards using TC best track data from 1990 to 2019 and the Holland wind field model. Absolute and relative exposure indices were developed, and a matrix model was used to determine the exposure hotspots of TCs. Our results show that: (1) From 1990 to 2019, the exposed GDP to TCs increased by USD 9771.5 billion, and the population increased by 570 million people, with an average annual growth rate of 3.62 % and 1.26 %, respectively. South Asia shows a significant increasing trend in both exposed GDP and the proportion of the exposed population. In terms of income levels, lower middle income countries have the fastest growth in exposed GDP and population. (2) Countries with high absolute exposure tend to be populous and economically developed, while countries with high relative exposure are mainly small island nations. The number of countries with the highest level (level V) of exposed GDP and the population is 8 and 10, respectively. Mainly located in East Asia and the Pacific. (3) From 1990 to 2019, the total area of affected cities increased by 12.94 × 10⁴ km². The increase in GDP and population exposure in urban areas accounted for 45.45 % and 77.53 % of the total growth in exposure, respectively. Our study contributes to understanding the dynamics of exposure characteristics in TC regions and provides an important foundation for TC risk management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100494"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000499/pdfft?md5=afb53b28a94211ec28d39fd60664d938&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000499-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141241363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing climate services for vulnerable islands in the Southwest Indian Ocean: A combined statistical and dynamical CMIP6 downscaling approach for climate change assessment","authors":"Marie-Dominique Leroux ,&nbsp;François Bonnardot ,&nbsp;Samuel Somot ,&nbsp;Antoinette Alias ,&nbsp;Stephason Kotomangazafy ,&nbsp;Abdoul-Oikil Saïd Ridhoine ,&nbsp;Philippe Veerabadren ,&nbsp;Vincent Amélie","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate change is a global challenge necessitating adaptation at the local level. Small island developing states (SIDS) in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin are particularly vulnerable and already facing significant challenges due to climate variability and extreme weather events like tropical cyclones (TCs). Tailored climate services, catering to their specific needs and contexts, are crucial for formulating appropriate adaptation strategies. This study aims to fill the gap of localized and reliable information for climate services in the SWIO region. A 12-km resolution regional climate model is dynamically downscaled from a CMIP6 model to capture the climatology of tropical cyclones. Outputs are bias-corrected at kilometer-scale resolution over multiple islands. A subset of CMIP6 simulations is also statistically downscaled over La Réunion to quantify model uncertainties at the local scale and compare statistical and dynamical downscaling methods.</p><p>CMIP6 models project an average increase in daily mean temperatures over small islands ranging from 1.2 °C (SSP1-2.6) to 3.7 °C (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the century compared to the reference period of 1981–2010, and up to 4.4 °C on Madagascar (SSP5-8.5). The dry season in the SWIO region is anticipated to become significantly drier, with precipitation deficits ranging from 10 % to 40 %, primarily due to a delayed onset of the rainy season. The cyclonic risk is expected to increase due to stronger cyclone intensities, a higher proportion of strong TCs, and the poleward migration of very intense TCs by one to two degrees latitude, further amplifying the risk faced by the Mascarene islands.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100491"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000463/pdfft?md5=5526eb888805424d067626d50c7b349f&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000463-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141241364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Principles for co-producing climate services: Practical insights from FRACTAL","authors":"Alice McClure ,&nbsp;Joseph Daron ,&nbsp;Sukaina Bharwani ,&nbsp;Richard Jones ,&nbsp;Lena C. Grobusch ,&nbsp;Jessica Kavonic ,&nbsp;Tamara Janes ,&nbsp;Mary Zhang ,&nbsp;Erin Hill ,&nbsp;Murisa Mzime","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100492","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Co-production is increasingly acknowledged as the preferred mode for producing climate services, especially in complex and information-limited decision contexts. This paper contributes knowledge on practices and processes that can enable effective climate services in such contexts, through sharing experiences from the Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL) project.</p><p>FRACTAL focused on informing actions to tackle climate-related issues in nine cities in six southern African countries over a six-year period and, in parallel, developing research findings and insights. Principles for effectively co-producing climate services were collaboratively identified by the project team, after which practical insights were detailed by analysing the body of evidence produced during FRACTAL using qualitative methods. This analysis helped to understand how principles were engendered, as well as associated challenges.</p><p>While many principles identified resonate with the growing body of relevant knowledge, practical insights from this study contribute to understanding ‘how’ principles can be engendered. Experiences emphasise the importance of engaging participants’ emotions, avoiding centring on climate information, using a “third space” to facilitate equitable engagements, directing resources towards having fun and learning actively, process-driven iteration, focusing on contemporary issues with which stakeholders can connect, introducing a pathways framing, and embedding researchers in decision-making contexts. This constitutes a more comprehensive set of principles than was previously available in the literature. Application of these principles and the transdisciplinary framing, which was core to FRACTAL, supports a shift away from a focus on ‘products’ to knowledge co-production ‘processes’ where collaborative learning is the defining characteristic of climate services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100492"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000475/pdfft?md5=ef9b4366afd9d984f618ffb1db78446a&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000475-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141241371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of flowering temperature on litchi yield under climate change: A case study in Taiwan","authors":"Ya-Wen Hwang,&nbsp;Yung-Heng Hsu,&nbsp;Yung-Ming Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100483","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Litchi is a subtropical fruit tree that undergoes flower bud differentiation under low-temperature conditions. However, climate change has affected litchi production in Taiwan, causing litchi farmers to experience economic losses. This study explored the influence of flowering temperature on litchi yield under climate change in Taiwan by analyzing litchi production data from 2001 to 2020 and observation data from meteorological stations in litchi-producing areas. Historical observed data were used to construct several regression models relating temperature to yield, with the performance of the models used to determine critical temperature thresholds for litchi flower bud differentiation. Analytical climate data (CMIP5) were used to project yield changes in Taiwan’s litchi-producing regions under anticipated low-temperature conditions for the mid- (2036–2065) and late- (2071–2100) 21st century. The variable that exhibited the highest correlation with yield changes was the number of days with an average flowering temperature below 16 °C. The production yield, in terms of yield variation per hectare, is expected to decrease by 12 % to 35 % by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100). Given the projected decline in the number of cooler days due to climate change, existing litchi cultivars may become unsuitable for cultivation in production areas in southern Taiwan.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical Implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Some fruit trees require a period of low temperature before their flowering stage. Climate change is expected to cause warming of winter temperatures in Taiwan, which is likely to lead to reduced litchi flowering. The current study assessed the potential effects of climate change on litchi flowering in the future.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical observed data were used to establish models, and critical temperature thresholds for litchi flowering were determined on the basis of model performance. Days with average temperatures below 16 °C exhibited the highest correlation with litchi yield among the tested thresholds. According to our results, farmers can use this 16 °C threshold to evaluate the potential effects of future climate change at their current farm locations and to identify other areas with similar or more favorable conditions for litchi cultivation. For agricultural researchers, this temperature threshold could provide a target for new litchi variety breeding and a reference basis for research on optimal cultivation methods.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Notably, because climate change projection data have a high degree of uncertainty, the results of this study may differ from those of studies using different databases. In this study, we used an ensemble of CMIP5 projections incorporating data from models from various research centers around the world, which can provide more robust results based on an ensemble mean than those obtainable from a single model or a few models. In addition, rainfall is a crucial factor during the flowering growth stage. Future studies","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100483"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000384/pdfft?md5=69505efd1bb89f774271865b8624dc4b&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000384-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-designing climate services: Concepts and practices of the ERA4CS projects","authors":"Tina-Simone Neset,&nbsp;Amy Oen,&nbsp;María Máñez Costa,&nbsp;Louis Celliers","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100461","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100461"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000165/pdfft?md5=6128174a95c33da7f92b1406f6995d7d&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000165-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140281021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the impact of climate change on soybean production in Argentina","authors":"Esteban Otto Thomasz ,&nbsp;Ismael Pérez-Franco ,&nbsp;Agustín García-García","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Soy is the most important agricultural commodity in Argentina, with relevance in public revenues and international reserves accumulation. However, a proper impact evaluation of future losses in the context of climate change has not yet been developed. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide future estimates of impact evaluation for macroeconomic adaptation policies. By means of a multiple partial regression, the relation between total country soybean yields and different combinations of 28 territorial weather stations was estimated for the period 2001–2021. With the optimal model, the output was projected using future rainfall and temperature data from 150 climate models from 4 different climate change scenarios from the Copernicus database during 2022–2042. Results show a strong statistical relationship between rainfall levels and maximum temperature and total soybean yields, explaining on average 91.2% of the yield variation. The future projections showed that the general average of the four climate change scenarios projected future output at 3.8% higher than the current levels, with 30% of projections with lower and 70% with higher output values than the current production. Variability analysis showed an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme negative events and higher aggregate than in the past: relative loss is on average 3.6% of production (USD million $13,000) compared to 2.3% of production in the historical data (USD million $7,492). The main application is the estimation of macro-fiscal impact for long-term budgetary and fiscal planning, with a parsimonious approach and open-access data that allows permanent actualization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"34 ","pages":"Article 100458"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072400013X/pdfft?md5=b743fb70dd71f951747022cafa3e9c4b&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072400013X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140350932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}