Identifying user requirements to inform national climate projections in the UK

Abstract

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) offers tools and data to support understanding of potential future changes in the UK climate. This study examines user perspectives on current climate information products and services in the UK to describe the existing climate services landscape. The primary aim is to gather insights into user views on available climate information and to outline both opportunities and challenges for future development. The analysis intends to inform efforts to make climate information more accessible, relevant, and effective for a broad range of stakeholders involved in climate adaptation and decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of user engagement in building trust, understanding evolving user needs, and driving continual improvements in climate services. Users reported using UKCP18 for various purposes, including understanding climate change, raising awareness, conducting risk assessments, developing adaptation plans, seeking funding, and implementing adaptation strategies. However, the integration of climate information into decision-making remains challenging. Potential users expressed interest in UKCP18 but identified challenges such as data interpretation and understanding caveats. The study also identifies key themes affecting the use of UKCP18, including limited resources, technical expertise, cross-department collaboration, and stakeholder urgency. The study emphasizes the need for improved data access, tools, communication, and training to overcome barriers and enhance the relevance and effectiveness of climate services. By transitioning from assumed demand-relevant to demand-driven climate services, this research aims to meet unmet needs, improve communication, and incorporate user feedback into future climate service development.

Practical implications

Findings from the User Needs Survey (380 responses) and focus groups (41 participants) on the usability and usefulness of UKCP18 provide valuable insights to guide future climate services development and delivery in the UK. These insights provide avenues for future climate science and climate impacts research along with specific directions for enhancing relevance and effectiveness of future climate information for diverse stakeholders. Such user engagement helps build trust with diverse users, provides a baseline for future longitudinal studies on evolving user needs, and provides a strong rationale for continual climate services improvements.

Users reported using UKCP to a) understand the process of climate change, b) communicate and raise awareness, c) conduct risk assessments, d) develop adaptation plans, e) seek funding and f) implement adaptation strategies. While understanding and assessing risks dominates the spread of responses, use for adaptation planning and action is limited. This links to a key issue highlighted by users that integrating climate information into decision-making poses a challenge when the ‘so what’ question is insufficiently addressed. Along with self-sufficient or intermediate users, the willingness of the potential users (n = 33) to engage with the survey suggests growing interest in using UKCP climate information. Potential users highlight challenges around interpreting data, understanding caveats, and locating information. They indicate preference for interactive tools like the Met Office Hazard Manager, where spatial maps can be overlayed with climate data, impact and likelihood related information. Users reflected on challenges that relate to their organisations and affect their ability to use UKCP climate information. Key themes include; limited resources and technical expertise, insufficient understanding of data and its potential use, lack of cross-department or organisational collaboration to share research, and data, and lack of urgency among stakeholders as climate change is considered “a problem for the future”. These suggest that for climate services to be adopted and effective, challenges at the user-level also need to be addressed.

Purveyors of information constituted the second largest group of respondents, following those in Academia and Research, and play a significant role within the climate services ecosystem. They currently provide support to a range of users by transforming climate information into guidance, awareness-raising materials, bespoke products, and services that support decision-making needs. They could play a key role to scale climate services to address diverse purposes and contexts as the demand for future climate information increases. Purpose and decision context for which climate information is used strongly influences what is considered a relevant time horizon by users, with horizons ranging from seasonal to 300 years and multi-millennia. In some cases, multiple time horizons are relevant, for instance the energy sector requires information for horizons ranging from 10-100 years. Enablers for using climate information appropriately are strongly linked to barriers reported by users and include improved data access, better tools and services, better communication, support for interpreting and using data, and training. Specific unmet needs such as additional emission scenarios, derived variables identified by users are helping define avenues for climate science research and updating the UKCP package. Survey responses have enhanced clarity regarding characteristics of useful and usable data and data products, including preferred formats for data visualisation and download, as well as products designed to enhance understanding of uncertainty. These insights will inform key improvements in the accessibility and communication of future climate information. In effect, this study is showing how to move from assumed demand-relevant climate services to demand-driven climate services. It will enable appropriate use of existing climate research to satisfy unmet needs, improve the communication of contextual information and ensure that feedback from users on usefulness and usability is factored into the development of future climate services.