Dust distribution and transport associated with a desert depression

Abstract

The rapid intensification of dust storms poses a significant challenge to climate services, forecasting, and early warning systems, with widespread impacts on public health and key sectors like aviation. While a general link between these storms and meteorological depressions is known, the specific dynamic mechanisms that drive their rapid development and make them difficult to predict remain poorly understood. This study addresses this critical gap by providing a detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis of a high-impact dust storm that occurred over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from March 15–19, 2017. Utilizing ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data and SEVIRI satellite imagery, we investigated the atmospheric processes that led to the event. The analysis confirms that the storm was initiated by a desert depression that formed in the lee of the Atlas Mountains. The cyclogenesis was fueled by a strong meridional temperature gradient at the lower levels and driven by the advection of positive vorticity and a warm air mass toward the developing depression. Within the region of low-level baroclinicity, the depression’s development was aided by strong low-level winds. These conditions intensified winds, which, coupled with a direct transverse circulation, triggered significant dust mobilization and vertical mixing. These findings directly contribute to the improvement of climate services that were introduced into the region by identifying the key dynamical precursors that could be used as more reliable indicators of imminent, high-impact dust events. This research demonstrates how a better understanding of the formation processes of desert depressions can enhance the accuracy and lead time of operational forecasts, ultimately leading to more effective early warning systems.