Climate Services最新文献

{"title":"Rainfall forecasts, learning subsidies and conservation agriculture adoption: Experimental evidence from Zambia","authors":"Hambulo Ngoma ,&nbsp;Esau Simutowe ,&nbsp;João Vasco Silva ,&nbsp;Isaiah Nyagumbo ,&nbsp;Kelvin Kalala ,&nbsp;Mukwemba Habeenzu ,&nbsp;Christian Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adapting smallholder rainfed farming systems to climate change requires adoption of technologies that build resilience to climate shocks. One such technology is conservation agriculture, yet its adoption by smallholders in Southern Africa is not widespread. We use incentivized economic field experiments in Zambia to test, ex-ante, whether providing rainfall forecasts and a time-bound learning subsidy can help increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. We found that providing rainfall forecasts predicting low rainfall significantly increased the probability of adopting conservation agriculture by 8 percentage points, while offering a subsidy increased the chances of adoption by 11 percentage points. Bundling rainfall forecasts and subsidies did not significantly influence adoption, perhaps because these were not complementary. Having experienced normal rainfall in the previous experiment round (cropping season) was associated with 6 percentage points higher odds of adopting conservation agriculture, while past exposure to low rainfall significantly reduced the probability of adoption by 6 percentage points. These results suggest that farmers do not expect two subsequent seasons to be the same given the increase in rainfall variability in the region. Other important drivers of adoption are hosting demonstration plots and education level of the participant. These findings provide evidence that providing rainfall forecasts and time-bound learning subsidies may be effective ways to enhance the adoption of conservation agriculture in Zambia and imply a need to reframe conservation agriculture as means to address low and erratic rainfall. Future research can evaluate the persistence of such effects using randomized controlled trials.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100547"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143232689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Farmers’ climate change perception, impacts and adaptation strategies in response to drought in the Northwest area of Bangladesh","authors":"J.M. Adeeb Salman Chowdhury ,&nbsp;Md. Abdul Khalek ,&nbsp;Md. Kamruzzaman","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100540","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study seeks to explore the farmers’ climate change perceptions, impacts, and underlying factors that influenced the choice of adaptation strategies in the drought-prone northwest region of Bangladesh. Primary data was collected from 375 sample households from four drought-prone districts (i.e., Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Naogaon, and Dinajpur). The factors influencing the farmers’ adaptation practices were determined using a multinomial logistic model (MNL). During survey, farmers’ perceptions about climate change were identical to the meteorological trends of the last 60 years (1960–2022) except for Dinajpur station. In the study period drought were mainly affects increased cost of production, declining ground water levels, crop failures and scarcity of soil water, lower income, food scarcity etc. The MNL results showed that age, education,&lt;!--&gt; &lt;!--&gt;income, family size, farming experience, access to climate, farmer-to-farmer extension, social mobility, and loan subsidies directly influenced adaptation decisions. The most significant adaptation strategies adopted by the farmers were irrigation facilities, agronomic management, drought-tolerant rice varieties, adopting new technologies, and alternative enterprises of land use change. To protect farmers from natural disasters, especially drought, sustainable water management plan, credit support from government, less water consuming crops, new crop varieties and re-excavation of traditional ponds must be implemented in the study area.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical Implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of adaptation to climate change, especially drought, and its implications in the Northwest region of Bangladesh. The country experiences various types of natural disasters, which means that the government and citizens have a long history of developing a significant track record of preparedness, adaptation, and recovery in response to such occurrences. It is well known that the prospect and occurrence of such catastrophes is a significant impediment to progress and the improvement of human welfare.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events due to climate change in South East Asia including Bangladesh is anticipated to intensify in the forthcoming years. In recent years, decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature have serious impact on agricultural sector specially the northwest area of Bangladesh, with rural farmers heavily affected since they depend largely on rainfall for their livelihood. According to national adaptation plan of Bangladesh (NAP), the whole area of the country is susceptible to the detrimental effects of climate change. However, the northwest region is particularly vulnerable to drought because of geoclimatic and man-made factors. Drought in this area are not only experienced through high rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature, but also shortage of groundwater, lack of canal ","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100540"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to disseminate the research results on climate change impacts in cities to guide adaptation public policies ? Application to the Paris region (France)","authors":"Julie André ,&nbsp;Benjamin Le Roy ,&nbsp;Aude Lemonsu ,&nbsp;Morgane Colombert ,&nbsp;Valéry Masson","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The construction of efficient climate services relies on the interaction between decision-makers and scientists. Urban heat island is an issue that already preoccupies public authorities and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, making assessment of its evolution crucial for effective urban policymaking and to size adaptation measures. This study analyzed interviews with 13 public stakeholders in the Paris area (France), highlighting their diverse needs for urban climate data. Their feedback on the high-resolution climate projections for the Paris region was assessed to provide recommendations to researchers for the effective dissemination of urban climate data. Public stakeholders in the Paris area need urban climate data for various purposes (awareness, diagnosis, decision support, and evaluation) and thus seek diverse types and formats of information. High-resolution climate projections may meet parts of these needs, but two key points require attention: (i) climate models appear to be difficult to apprehend by public stakeholders, thus an effort of pedagogy is necessary, (ii) climate projections often extend to 2100, but stakeholders primarily need short- to medium-term forecasts that align with public policy timelines. Indicators on extreme impacts and risks are a strong demand of public actors, especially in the health and energy sectors. Additionally, since recent urban climate resources remain largely unseen by public actors, we recommend enhancing its dissemination through local institutes recognized by policymakers, such as urban planning agencies. In summary, this case study provided valuable insights into the key mechanisms required for effectively disseminating climate research to promote climate change adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100545"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions toward flood risk insurance amongst low-income households in South Africa","authors":"David Lefutso ,&nbsp;Abiodun A. Ogundeji ,&nbsp;Gideon Danso-Abbeam ,&nbsp;Yong S. Nyam","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Africa is repeatedly hit by flooding, and it is getting worse with climate change and urbanisation. Applying Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) theory and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), this study explores low-income households’ perceptions and practices regarding flood risk insurance coverage in East London and Mdantsane-Chalumna. The study involved a data collected from 448 low-income households and applied the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to understand the complex relationships between the variables under study. The results show positive attitude toward insurance. However, the knowledge base is critically short. The KAP dimensions are determined by socio-economic factors, for example, education, financial capacity and availability of relevant information; reliance on social grants reduces the perception of relevance of insurance. The adoption is impeded by structural barriers such as low financial literacy, distrust in insurers and administrative complexity. However, there are possibilities to boost financial literacy by means of well-aimed educational campaigns in addition to digital platforms. Subsidised policies and micro-insurance are essential affordable insurance solutions. Equally important is building institutional trust via transparent public–private collaborations and consumer protection mechanisms. Increased adoption will come from simplified mobile platforms and communication strategies that highlight the benefits of insurance and risks of inaction. The findings of this research offer tangible advice for solving both behavioural and structural barriers to the prevention and mitigation of flood risk in South Africa, advancing the debate on flood risk management in the country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100542"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The development and application of the cloud-based climate operational platform","authors":"Siqi Zhang,&nbsp;Huanping Wu,&nbsp;Mei Li,&nbsp;Bei Liu,&nbsp;Pengcheng Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the climate change has been attributed more attention by numerous governments. In response, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has developed the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Analysis System (CIPAS). Currently, CIPAS Version 3 (CIPAS 3) incorporates data from global massive meteorological station, satellite, predication models, and reanalysis datasets. Designed with a “Cloud + Client” architecture, CIPAS 3 utilizes distributed, multi-layer cloud computing to integrate, manage, and share climate data. CIPAS 3 offers over 1,300 operational functions, nearly 1,800 products, and 213 climate algorithms. Additionally, it plays a critical role in global, regional, and provincial climate monitoring, prediction, real-time verification, decision-making, and public climate services. The design and implementation of this system are instrumental in supporting research and informing government actions in the field of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100544"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia","authors":"Max Mauerman ,&nbsp;Henny Osbahr ,&nbsp;Emily Black ,&nbsp;Daniel Osgood ,&nbsp;Grieve Chelwa ,&nbsp;Bernadette Mushinge","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate adaptation policies rely on accurate estimates of weather-related impacts on community-level food insecurity. These estimates must capture local livelihoods and their varying sensitivity to climate extremes. This paper develops a novel methodology to address this need through incorporating farmer knowledge into robust drought impact assessments.</div><div>Using a new dataset of 925 farmer focus groups in Zambia, we investigate whether farmers’ recollection can identify consequential drought events more consistently than crop yields, which are conventionally used for this purpose. Zambia, like many countries, has experienced structural changes in its crop production systems over the last 30 years. Staple crop yields are therefore a weak proxy for food insecurity without wider socio-economic and agricultural context. We posit that in settings like this, farmers’ knowledge can provide the missing context for what constitutes a meaningful climate shock.</div><div>We conduct a statistical analysis of the dominant patterns of variability in farmers’ recollected drought years as compared to satellite rainfall. We find that farmers’ recall identifies meteorologically consistent patterns in shocks, going back 40 years. In contrast, conventional methods of regressing weather on maize yields to measure shocks would result in estimates that are biased and overconfident. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time at a national scale, that farmers’ knowledge of climate shocks is a uniquely reliable source of impact data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100543"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A content analysis of actionable guidelines for Climate-Smart agriculture implementation in South Africa- communication for behavioral changes","authors":"Oladimeji Idowu Oladele,&nbsp;Simon C. Mjabuliseni Ngidi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The actionable guidelines for climate-smart agriculture were developed as advisory and prescriptive activities to promote the adoption of climate-smart agriculture techniques. The coverage of the guidelines aligns with the agroecological principles which serve as the foundation for cleaner production. The content analysis explored the nexus between cleaner production- agroecological principles and climate-smart agriculture, by examining the scope and intensity of coverage of agroecological principles through the perspectives of extended parallel process, construal level theory, and information deficit model by the actionable guidelines. The results reinforce the non-mutual exclusivity and exhaustivity among the three concepts due to the overlapping of the practice and knowledge of the concepts; and that the communication of any of the concepts inadvertently covers the other in a way that coherence, complementarity, and coordination have been established. The communication in the actionable guidelines emphasizes the intention for desired results, current activities needed to be implemented, implementation steps rather than the danger posed by climate change, and future implications and theoretical issues as often with climate change reports and communication outlets. The practical implication of the findings is that communication on climate change should not be overtly scientific if it is to elicit behavioral change and that the efficacy of the communication outlets should be evaluated for effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100541"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sowing the seeds of sustainability: A sociological exploration of environmental sustainability within SME sector","authors":"Mohi ud Din ,&nbsp;Aqeel Ahmad ,&nbsp;Sarminah Samad ,&nbsp;Sanghyeop Lee ,&nbsp;Heesup Han","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100533","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study provides a sociological investigation into the interconnected dynamics of green human resource management practices (GHRM), green transformational leadership (GTL), employees’ pro-environmental behaviors (EPB), green culture (GC), and environmental sustainability (ES) within the context of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Lahore and Faisalabad, Pakistan. Utilizing a sample of 357 participants, comprising HR managers, leaders, and employees within SMEs, data were collected through self-report measures, and analysis was conducted using Smart PLS 4.0 software. The results underscore the positive impact of GHRM on EPB and ES through serial mediation of EPB and GC within SMEs, emphasizing the role of GHRM in cultivating pro-environmental attitudes among employees and enhancing overall environmental sustainability. However, the correlation between GHRM and the development of GC was found to be insignificant, suggesting the need to explore additional variables for fostering a green culture within organizations. Furthermore, the study reveals that EPB serves as a partial mediator between GHRM and both ES and GC. Notably, green transformational leadership (GTL) did not exhibit a significant moderating effect on the relationship between GHRM and EPB. This research provides valuable insights for organizations seeking to enhance environmental sustainability by promoting pro-environmental behaviors among employees and emphasizes the importance of cultivating a pervasive green culture to fully leverage the potential of GHRM practices. Despite acknowledging limitations such as a singular country focus and reliance on self-reported data, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of these phenomena within the sociocultural context of SMEs, thus augmenting the existing literature.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical Implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;This study provides practical guidance for HR professionals and organizational leaders in the SME sector looking to implement strategic Green HRM interventions. By recognizing the positive impact of Green HRM practices on pro-environmental behavior and environmental sustainability, organizations can develop specific initiatives to encourage environmentally responsible behavior among their employees. Moreover, the research underscores the importance of cultivating a green organizational culture through the promotion of pro-environmental behavior and green initiatives. Organizations can use these insights to design awareness campaigns, training programs, and workshops that instill a sense of environmental responsibility, ultimately fostering a culture of sustainability. A significant practical implication of this study is the emphasis on employee engagement and empowerment in driving sustainability initiatives. By involving employees in decision-making processes and providing opportunities for them to participate in green projects, organizations can tap into their enthusiasm and commitment toward en","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"37 ","pages":"Article 100533"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143174869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linking weather and climate information services (WCIS) to Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices","authors":"Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi ,&nbsp;Tinashe Lindel Dirwai ,&nbsp;Cuthbert Taguta ,&nbsp;Aidan Senzanje ,&nbsp;Wuletawu Abera ,&nbsp;Ajit Govid ,&nbsp;Elliott Ronald Dossou-Yovo ,&nbsp;Ermias Aynekulu ,&nbsp;Vimbayi Grace Petrova Chimonyo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective(s)</h3><div>This study synthesises existing knowledge on the linkages between Weather and Climate Information Services (WCIS) and Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: (1) What is the current status of knowledge on WCIS and CSA in the global south, specifically the African continent?, (2) Are WCIS effectively tailored and linked to CSA practices and technologies to improve agricultural water management (AWM) amongst smallholder farmers?, and (3) How can linking WCIS and CSA facilitate the identification, appraisal and prioritization of regionally differentiated and context-specific climate-appropriate technologies and policies that enhance agricultural water management at various levels (field, farm, scheme, and catchment)?</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The study used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analysis Protocol (PRISMA-P) guidelines. It involved the search of the Scopus and Web of Science databases for peer-reviewed articles, books, and grey literature focussed on the global south.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The results revealed that seasonal forecasts were the main WCIS available to farmers who utilised them to plan predominantly for irrigation and water harvesting activities. Daily forecasts were linked to practices such as irrigation. The study also revealed that temperature and rainfall (amount and distribution) were predominantly disseminated to farmers through extension services. The dominant CSA practices used by farmers were carbon-smart (e.g., composting), water-smart practices (improved varieties, irrigation, RWH), weather-smart practices (IPM &amp; crop insurance), and nitrogen-smart practices (organic fertiliser, crop diversification). Advisories on carbon-smart practices generally aligned closely with the start and end of rainfall information, while the water-smart practices were corroborated with the rainfall onset, end of rainfall season, and rainfall intensity. Weather smart practices were strongly linked to drought, temperature, and rainfall distribution, whereas nitrogen smart practices were linked with the end of rainfall and temperature.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The study concluded that distinct linkages exist between WCIS and various CSA categories. The study argues that increasing access to WCIS can facilitate the adoption and scaling of CSA practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"37 ","pages":"Article 100529"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143174865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century","authors":"Sylvain Cros ,&nbsp;Philippe Drobinski ,&nbsp;Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet ,&nbsp;Johann Meulemans","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heating and cooling in households account for half of global energy use and a significant part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These figures are expected to change significantly under the joint influence of climate change and demography. We assessed the respective contribution of each of these processes in mainland France, a country presenting heterogeneous climate and currently low ownership of air conditioners. We projected heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) up to 2100 using EURO-CORDEX simulations and considering three sources of uncertainty: three different methods for computing HDD and CDD; two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); and two population projections. We found a net increase in energy demand by 2100, driven by a slight decrease in HDDs and a strong increase in CDDs. Climate and population have a similar influence on net aggregate energy demand, however with statistically significant differences from a French department to an other. In particular, climate change has a particularly strong influence on HDDs in Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions after 2070. In turn, CDDs appear more evenly impacted by climate change and population increase, except in Southern cities where population is growing fast. In any case, the ranking between the two influences is strongly sensitive to population projections scenarios. This influence distinction is useful to apply a differentiated energy policy: energy efficiency measures are more effective for climate-driven demand increases, while behavioural policies are better suited for population-driven ones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"37 ","pages":"Article 100539"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143174875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}