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Effect of climate change and variability-induced shocks and stresses on rural household livelihoods and their adaptation practices in West Arsi Zone, South-Central Ethiopia 气候变化和变率引起的冲击和压力对埃塞俄比亚中南部西阿尔西地区农村家庭生计及其适应做法的影响
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561
Abebe Engda , Fantaw Yimer , Muluken Mekuyie , Menfese Tadesse
{"title":"Effect of climate change and variability-induced shocks and stresses on rural household livelihoods and their adaptation practices in West Arsi Zone, South-Central Ethiopia","authors":"Abebe Engda ,&nbsp;Fantaw Yimer ,&nbsp;Muluken Mekuyie ,&nbsp;Menfese Tadesse","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic trends and variability on main livelihood practices (crop production), as well as farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to local climate change in West Arsi zone. The data gathered from 354 of the 364 sample households who took part in the survey in six <em>Kebeles</em> utilizing a standardized questionnaire served as the basis for this investigation. Ten surveys with incomplete responses were removed from the data analysis after the responses were reviewed for completeness across all questionnaire sections. Key informant interviews, focus groups, meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, crop and aid beneficiary data from the West Arsi zone Bureau of Agriculture and Office for Disaster Risk Management were also used in the study. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze climate trends. The descriptive and multivariate statistical models in SPSS v.25 and Ms Excel soft wares were used to analyze data. The results indicated significant increase in aggregated mean annual temperature (p &lt; 0.001) by 0.045 °C per year and annual rainfall showed significant decrease (p &lt; 0.1) by 3.7 mm per year in the study area, over the period 1983 to 2019. The results indicates annual rainfall was a significant predictor of crop production (t = 15.24, p &lt; 0.05), and revealed a significant differences in household adaptation practices (p &lt; 0.001) between agro ecological zones. The study also revealed that household demographic and socio-economic factors significantly influenced their adaptation choices, highlighting the need for further research on interventions that enhance local adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100561"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Usability of agricultural drought vulnerability and resilience indicators in planning strategies for small farms: A principal component approach 农业干旱脆弱性和抗灾能力指标在小农场规划战略中的可用性:主成分方法
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569
Tanaya Sarmah , Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan , Abdullah Konak , Elisabeth Shrimpton , Karina Simone Sass , Marina Batalini De Macedo , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo , Adelaide Cassia Nardocci , Da Huo , Michael Gregory Jacobson
{"title":"Usability of agricultural drought vulnerability and resilience indicators in planning strategies for small farms: A principal component approach","authors":"Tanaya Sarmah ,&nbsp;Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan ,&nbsp;Abdullah Konak ,&nbsp;Elisabeth Shrimpton ,&nbsp;Karina Simone Sass ,&nbsp;Marina Batalini De Macedo ,&nbsp;Eduardo Mario Mendiondo ,&nbsp;Adelaide Cassia Nardocci ,&nbsp;Da Huo ,&nbsp;Michael Gregory Jacobson","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water-related stresses and risks of droughts, exacerbated by climate change, have been extensively documented. These studies often rely on various indicators to monitor and forecast the impacts of droughts. However, current literature on the usability of these indicators for modelling drought risk and in decision-making processes is fragmented and lacks a clear, systematic, and methodological approach. Usability, in this context, refers to the relevance, accessibility, clarity, and practicality of indicators for guiding planning strategies. To address this knowledge gap, the Management of Disaster Risk and Societal Resilience (MADIS)<span><span><sup>1</sup></span></span> project aims to collate and assess drought vulnerability and resilience indicators from existing literature to support decision-makers in improving policies related to agricultural droughts on small farms.</div><div>The MADIS project identified over 100 indicators, from which 36 were selected for further analysis. A global online survey using the Delphi technique was conducted, and the resulting data was used to perform a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Findings revealed that these 36 indicators could be reduced and grouped up to ten principal components, each corresponding to a theme across five categories: relevancy, understanding, accessibility, objectivity, and temporal. This study, therefore, highlights the practical usability of these indicators for developing context-specific and efficient resilience strategies.</div><div>Indicators related to water management were found to be crucial and applicable across all five categories, as the availability, quality, and source of water are essential for monitoring and mitigating drought hazards. Conversely, indicators related to rural development and demographics, while quantifiable and collected at different temporal scales, were deemed less understandable and accessible by experts. Grouping indicators under common themes reduces the complexity of evaluating similar indicators and aids in selecting the most relevant ones for different contexts. This approach simplifies indicator selection and enables decision-makers to formulate resilience policies more efficiently and comprehensively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100569"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143902065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Creating and testing an approach for upscaling climate services 创建和测试一种提升气候服务的方法
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577
Christopher R. Goddard , Galina Guentchev , Erika J. Palin , Mark Harrison , Jason A. Lowe , Tyrone Dunbar , Elizabeth Fuller , Chris Counsell , John Dora , Tim Reeder
{"title":"Creating and testing an approach for upscaling climate services","authors":"Christopher R. Goddard ,&nbsp;Galina Guentchev ,&nbsp;Erika J. Palin ,&nbsp;Mark Harrison ,&nbsp;Jason A. Lowe ,&nbsp;Tyrone Dunbar ,&nbsp;Elizabeth Fuller ,&nbsp;Chris Counsell ,&nbsp;John Dora ,&nbsp;Tim Reeder","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Upscaling is the process of moving beyond pilots or prototypes to repeatable and/or transferable services that are accessible and useful to stakeholders and users. It may also refer to increasing the provision, reach, or impact of an existing service. Upscaling any service or product is a complex process, which – in the case of climate services – is exacerbated by serving an emerging market, and many projects taking place in academic settings with short term funding cycles. Climate service providers, their delivery partners and funders could benefit from increased reach and impact by explicitly considering how their services can scale and what the enablers and barriers to this may be. This could take the form of reviewing academic literature, applying structured frameworks, or learning from best practice examples.</div><div>Here, we describe the process of creating, testing, and refining an upscaling approach for climate services. The resulting approach is presented, alongside case studies that helped update it and provide evidence for its usefulness and useability. This detailed study of upscaling climate services sets the foundation for effective and sustainable provision of climate services beyond pilots and prototypes and further development of upscaling frameworks and tools to this end.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adaptation to climate change by the indigenous farmers in the western Tarai of Nepal 尼泊尔西部塔拉伊地区土著农民对气候变化的适应
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559
Buddhi R. Chaudhary , Greg Acciaioli , William Erskine , Luni Piya , Niraj Prakash Joshi
{"title":"Adaptation to climate change by the indigenous farmers in the western Tarai of Nepal","authors":"Buddhi R. Chaudhary ,&nbsp;Greg Acciaioli ,&nbsp;William Erskine ,&nbsp;Luni Piya ,&nbsp;Niraj Prakash Joshi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Challenges posed by climate change are more severe for indigenous farmers in developing countries. For them, their rich socio-culture constructs their livelihood capitals, which also indicate their adaptive capacity (AC). Hence, understanding their adaptation strategies to climate change and their adoption in relation to AC is urgently needed. All 229 Tharu households residing in two rural villages in the Western Tarai of Nepal were surveyed using the semi-structured questionnaire complemented by two focused group discussions and 10 key informant interviews with leading farmers and concerned stakeholders. The questionnaire included three sections, namely; agriculture, climate change, and livelihoods along with the household characteristics. We found that AC varies with space and gender. The geographical location of the village and households with access to service and market have better AC. Women had lower AC, particularly human capital and natural capital of livelihoods. The Tharu consider multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the farming in changed climatic contexts. Adopting modern agriculture technology in major cereal crops and continuing landraces with traditional practices are prominent adaptation strategies. This signifies the importance of indigenous knowledge and practice in climate change adaptation for the Tharu. Consequently, they are also contributing to the conservation of valuable landraces. Landholding, access to water pumps, extension services, and weather information are the significantly important factors associated with the adoption of adaptation strategies by the Tharu. Thus, the interventions must be designed to increase access to extension services, improve farmers’ access to water pumps, and secure tenurial arrangements to adopt climate change adaptation measures effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100559"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ambition setting through climate services to drive climate resilient development 通过气候服务设定目标,推动气候适应型发展
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556
Gaby S. Langendijk , Eva Boon , Hasse Goosen , Ad Jeuken , Saioa Zorita Castresana , Nieves Pena Cerezo , Jaroslav Mysiak , Leon Kapetas
{"title":"Ambition setting through climate services to drive climate resilient development","authors":"Gaby S. Langendijk ,&nbsp;Eva Boon ,&nbsp;Hasse Goosen ,&nbsp;Ad Jeuken ,&nbsp;Saioa Zorita Castresana ,&nbsp;Nieves Pena Cerezo ,&nbsp;Jaroslav Mysiak ,&nbsp;Leon Kapetas","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation efforts need to accelerate and scale-up to deal with increasing climate change impacts worldwide in order to safeguard the resilience of societies. Currently adaptation action is merely following a risk-based planning approach, going from identifying a climate related risk to directly finding solutions. This has resulted into largely fragmented, local, and incremental adaptation actions up to present. There is a need for transformational change, and combining adaptation with other policy objectives, to speed up action towards climate resilient development. However, this integration alone may not be sufficient to address the systemic transformation required to tackle the root causes of existing challenges and underlaying vulnerabilities. A broader perspective is needed to envision the “future we want” and defining key goals and actions to achieve these futures. We believe that such an ambition setting process is critical, and commonly missing in adaptation planning. With ambition setting we mean a policy process that entails developing visions coupled with identifying goals and actions that work towards these visions. Ambition setting builds upon understanding the desired transformations in the system and the root cause of present challenges, including risks and vulnerabilities. To put ambition setting into practice climate services and tools can be employed. We identify key criteria supporting the selection of such tools and provide four examples showcasing how the tools support ambition setting. A tradition of ambition setting should be fostered, as well as tools and services should be further developed in parallel to accelerate transformations towards climate resilient development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100556"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation 利用区域变暖水平描述未来气候变化的服务和适应:在法国适应参考轨迹中的应用
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553
Lola Corre , Aurélien Ribes , Sébastien Bernus , Agathe Drouin , Samuel Morin , Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
{"title":"Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation","authors":"Lola Corre ,&nbsp;Aurélien Ribes ,&nbsp;Sébastien Bernus ,&nbsp;Agathe Drouin ,&nbsp;Samuel Morin ,&nbsp;Jean-Michel Soubeyroux","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;To describe regional climate change, climate services typically rely on an ensemble of climate model simulations. The development and arrival of observational constraints at regional scales are questioning this approach, as some simulations may not align with warming trajectories estimated by these techniques. This study proposes a methodology for describing future regional changes that combines multiple sources of information: global and regional observational constraints applied to the CMIP6 ensemble, along with existing regional climate model simulations driven by CMIP5. This approach uses Regional Warming Levels (RWLs), mirroring the use of Global Warming Levels (GWLs) in the IPCC AR6. We apply it to mainland France, a region with discrepancies in warming projections between global models, regional models, and observational constraints. Results show that the standard GWL approach produces unrealistically low warming estimates due to overly low regional-to-global warming ratios in some models. Using RWLs allows separation of the annual mean warming estimation (based on observational constraints) from the detailed climate change characteristics (based on regional models). We explore ways to link RWLs and GWLs and assess associated uncertainties. This methodology has been selected to describe future climate change in mainland France, as part of the definition of a reference trajectory for adaptation set by the French government. It can be replicated in other regions and applied to existing or upcoming climate projections to express them in terms of regional warming levels at the national scale.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Practical implications&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The French government has recently chosen to adopt a reference trajectory for adaptation to climate change in France, known as the TRACC (Trajectoire de Réchauffement de référence pour l’Adaptation au Changement Climatique). This trajectory defines 3 levels to which the country needs to prepare for, corresponding to +1.5 °C global warming in 2030, +2 °C in 2050 and +3 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. The aim is to establish a single framework for climate change impact studies including climate services, the definition and analysis of adaptation actions, standardizing practices nationwide and facilitating a coherent response to climate challenges. This article describes the methodological choices associated with this trajectory, based on a description of future changes at a fixed regional warming level (RWL) consistent with the chosen global trajectory. For mainland France, the 3 TRACC levels are expressed as an average warming over the country of 2 °C in 2030, 2.7 °C in 2050 and 4 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. These are derived from observational constraints, combining models and observations. The subsequent description of local scale climate change is based on existing regional climate model simulations. The article finally provides a description of some of the changes associated with the","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100553"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicting precipitation and NDVI utilization of the multi-level linear mixed-effects model and the CA-markov simulation model 利用多级线性混合效应模型和CA-markov模拟模型预测降水和NDVI
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554
Fatima Belhaj , Hlila Rachid , Ouallali Abdessalam , Aqil Tariq , Belkendil Abdeldjalil , Beroho Mohamed , Hassan Alzahrani , Hajra Mustafa , Hesham Mohamed El-Askary
{"title":"Predicting precipitation and NDVI utilization of the multi-level linear mixed-effects model and the CA-markov simulation model","authors":"Fatima Belhaj ,&nbsp;Hlila Rachid ,&nbsp;Ouallali Abdessalam ,&nbsp;Aqil Tariq ,&nbsp;Belkendil Abdeldjalil ,&nbsp;Beroho Mohamed ,&nbsp;Hassan Alzahrani ,&nbsp;Hajra Mustafa ,&nbsp;Hesham Mohamed El-Askary","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current work intends to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and the Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Loukkos watershed and provide scenarios for their recent and future evolution, therefore determining the degree of association. We conducted a study on the time series data of precipitation and NDVI from 1999 to 2019. The NDVI prediction is conducted using the CA-Markov model and the linear mixed-effects multi-level model (LME) with precipitation data from 2019 to 2040. The CA-Markov model was employed to predict the vegetation indices for 2029 and 2040 using 1999, 2009, and 2019 data. The model simulates future precipitation estimates for up to 2040 using different daily precipitation data series obtained from ten meteorological stations between 1999 and 2019. The accuracy of NDVI simulation is evaluated using kappa indices, specifically <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>location</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 88%, <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>n</mi><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> of 86%, and <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>d</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 83%, indicating that the consistency between the simulated NDVI map of 2019 and the actual one is nearly perfect, indicating statistical reliability of our model. The precipitation forecast for the Loukkos watershed predicts that average annual precipitation will decrease by 11.4% between 1999 and 2040. In contrast, based on 2019, there will be an increase in low vegetation areas and a decline in dense regions in the eastern and western parts of the basin in 2029 (−12.89%) and 2040 (−12.78%), respectively. The findings of this study suggest that by 2040, the Loukkos watershed will be exposed to future climate hazards, such as reduced precipitation and vegetation. The integration of geoinformation and prediction models is a great resource for optimizing environmental planning to prepare and potentially mitigate the harmful effects of climate change and its consequences for both humanity and the environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100554"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Factors influencing the access and utilization of climate information by farmers from different climate vulnerable districts of Northern Region, Ghana 加纳北部不同气候脆弱地区农民获取和利用气候信息的影响因素
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557
Iddisah Alhassan , Philip Antwi-Agyei , William Adzawla , Mihaela Sima
{"title":"Factors influencing the access and utilization of climate information by farmers from different climate vulnerable districts of Northern Region, Ghana","authors":"Iddisah Alhassan ,&nbsp;Philip Antwi-Agyei ,&nbsp;William Adzawla ,&nbsp;Mihaela Sima","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To execute effective climate initiatives at all social levels, it is critical to understand the perspectives of various climate-vulnerability groups’ utilization of climate information. However, limited empirical research has been conducted on the perspectives and adaptation methods of climate-vulnerable<!--> <!-->farmers in Ghana’s Northern Region. This study offered an understanding of the enabling factors that promote the utilization intensity of climate information among farmers from three climate-vulnerability groups. The study employs quantitative and qualitative methods and data collected through face-to-face interview questionnaires from 384 farmer households, five key informants and five focus group discussions among forty-two participants within 6 climatic vulnerable districts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the types of information accessed and utilized and the enabling factors for its utilization. A double-hurdle regression model was employed to model climate-vulnerable districts’ probability utilization of climate information and intensity. The results show that television programs were the major source of climate information among most farmers in the highly climate-vulnerable groups, whereas it was radio among farmers in the moderately and less climate-vulnerable groups. The moderately climate-vulnerable groups not only have a low probability of utilizing climate information, but they will utilize less of it if they intend to do so, whereas highly climate-vulnerable districts have a lower probability of utilizing but will use more of it if they intend to. Access to climate information through extension services was low among all vulnerable groups. However, farmers who accessed extension services have a high probability of utilizing the information and utilize it more.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100557"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143579201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services 利用SPEI指数进行地中海季节性干旱预测:为其在气候服务中的业务适用性铺平道路
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
Swen Brands , Maialen Iturbide , Jaime Díez González-Pardo , Sixto Herrera , Joaquín Bedia , Rodrigo Manzanas , Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado , Santiago Beguería , Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano , José Manuel Gutiérrez
{"title":"Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services","authors":"Swen Brands ,&nbsp;Maialen Iturbide ,&nbsp;Jaime Díez González-Pardo ,&nbsp;Sixto Herrera ,&nbsp;Joaquín Bedia ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Manzanas ,&nbsp;Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado ,&nbsp;Santiago Beguería ,&nbsp;Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano ,&nbsp;José Manuel Gutiérrez","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI-3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981–2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100555"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Role of risk perception and climate change beliefs in adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices in Saudi Arabia 风险认知和气候变化信念在沙特阿拉伯采用气候适应型农业实践中的作用
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学
Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Azhar Abbas , Muhammad Imran Azeem , Pomi Shahbaz , Shamsheer ul Haq , Roshan K. Nayak
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